How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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sennafan24
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Joined: 09 Jul 2013, 17:36

How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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I watched the 1988 Season Review recently, which can be find here along with the 1990 and 1991 Season Review - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khQ7ZLpIHCc Throughout the review, the Championship scores are informed to the viewer in a unconventional way, as was McLaren's dominance that year, after every race instead of points totals the viewer is informed the amount of race wins Senna and Prost have against each other. By the end of the year in 16 races, Senna beat Prost by winning 8-7 in race wins (the one reminder being Monza where both retired), which was enough with the best of 11 races system to give Senna the title. Despite this under the rules of today Prost would have won the WDC, due to having scored more points in total.

However, my subjective opinion is that Senna deserved the WDC more despite Prost scoring more points. The race win stats taken at face value show that Senna outraced Prost 8 to 7 times. A closer inspection would show that Senna had fuel reading problems in Spain and Portugal, and a whole host of problems outside his power in Brazil as well that prevented him from competing with Prost. Prost did have a gearbox problem in Japan, but it was not severe enough for retirement, and Senna after stalling on the grid made a classic comeback to snatch the title. In Monaco, Senna was miles ahead before he crashed into the wall and Monza he was also ahead of Prost before things went wrong, but in those cases Ayrton was to blame for his DNF's. I felt over the year Senna performed better. There were times like France and Australia where Prost was better in a straight fight, but more times than not Senna had the measure of his teammate.

1989 is another year of Senna and Prost where stats can be thrown around from both sides. If we again take the stats, Prost won the title under the best of 11 and scored more points, but in races where both finished Senna won a definitive 9 times to Prost's 1. Senna retired from the lead on several occasions through no fault of his own, the DQ in Japan and a car going into the back of him was the tip of the iceberg, as Senna's new engines from Honda were unreliable. Some call this justice due to Prost' not being in favor by Honda, but accusations were thrown around that Mclaren favored Prost at times. Jo Rameriz claims that neither was favored, I tend to believe him. Such are the variables in 1989, its hard to draw a definitive conclusion. My again subjective view is that Senna outperformed Prost again despite what the points stats say, but it is far from conclusive and open to various viewpoints which are equally as valid. This brings me to my general point, can we really judge drivers on stats. I would say at times like with the comparison above, sometimes raw stats should not be taken at face value, and statistical analysis will reveal various viewpoints will be decided on pure subjectivity.

I would say most do not take raw stats as gospel. In various reader, expert and driver polls, the winner of the greatest F1 driver of all time is usually Senna. Sometimes you will see Jim Clark or Fangio top lists as well. Whilst there is chief support from some and the odd list that names him the best, the driver that has the best statistical resume being Michael Schumacher is not at the top of lists as much as his stats suggest he should.

In my lifetime (I am 26) I believe Schumacher is either second or third in the best driver I have lived through, and I am a fan of his, but his stats are in ways misleading. There is a perception that his stats are padded due to winning titles against a depleted field of drivers and driving in the overpowered car. Now some years like 2000 when he faced a prime Mika in a competitive car and won, and 2003 with Kimi and Juan able to compete, you have to say fair play to Schumi. But years like 1995, 2001 and 2002 there was a lack of top flight drivers to challenge Schumi, in 2004 there were drivers to challenge but a lack of cars to compete with his rocketship Ferrari. So again, subjective opinion like the one I again displayed can tell a different story from what the stats offer.

Selective stats are brought out in debates today. The Lewis vs Jenson debate gives us my favorite, depending on which viewpoint you argue from, you will say either Jenson scored more points over 3 years, or Lewis won 2-1 in seasons. I am guilty of this I admit. They are both selective stats that do not really tell us much, there are too many variables involved for either stat to be accepted as definitive proof of one drivers being better than the other. Stats can be listened to by some when it suits their case as well, an in reverse be ignored when it suits their case. Vettel having more WDC's than Lewis and Alonso is a common stat that Vettel fans bring up to prove Vettel is better than Lewis/Alonso. This overlooks car performance and quality of teammate, its just in many ways a blanket stat without much substance in my view.

This is not to say stats cannot be definitive and prove nothing. Take Jules Bianchi and Max Chilton this year. Whilst we do not know how good Jules is from the stats, the stats do support any sort of perception that Jules is better than Max. There is no valid argument there to suggest the stats are wrong. I would say the same with the Vettel vs Webber debate, but a minority still cling to Vettel getting better treatment as the reason the stats are so one-sided. As you can tell I do not put as much weight in stats as other do unless they are definitive, and think that it essentially comes down to subjective opinion to how you judge drivers relative performance in the circumstances and events that occur. I am interested to hear how much other posters read into stats in their judgement of drivers.

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raymondu999
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Joined: 04 Feb 2010, 07:31

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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Results never tell the full picture. You need to take a close look at the story behind those results. Same with stats
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sennafan24
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Joined: 09 Jul 2013, 17:36

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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raymondu999 wrote:Results never tell the full picture. You need to take a close look at the story behind those results. Same with stats
Would you say results and stats are the same in F1? Or do you have a difference between them.

I agree though, the "story" though as I stated is usually subjective.

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flynfrog
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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Results are what matter. The rest are stories you tell yourself to convince yourself that your driver was still the best even though he lost. They don't write the history books about who tried really hard and should have won but didn't.

This topic has been beaten to death here.

We really don't need anymore who was the best driver threads they all end the same way.

sennafan24
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Joined: 09 Jul 2013, 17:36

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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flynfrog wrote:Results are what matter. The rest are stories you tell yourself to convince yourself that your driver was still the best even though he lost. They don't write the history books about who tried really hard and should have won but didn't.

This topic has been beaten to death here.

We really don't need anymore who was the best driver threads they all end the same way.
Its not a thread about who is better than who, its is a thread about how much you read into stats and what you value. I just used examples to enforce my points.

If it was results that what mattered to a absolute degree, no one would entertain anyone but Schumacher as the best driver in F1 history. Another example does everyonebody consider Giles Villneurve to be inferior to say drivers who had the results to win a WDC, like say Mansell or Button? I think not

There are more to legacies than results, as they are vulnerable to so many variables.

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flynfrog
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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so what is the point of this thread then? You want a logical discussion on something that can not be quantified? You will get 5 pages of everyone posting excuses as to why their favorite driver should be the best even though they crashed the car got beat by a teammate hit a seagull ect. The discussion only goes in circles and you pick out the posts that agree with your position. If you want hard cold truth the reason Senna gets voted best driver in F1 is because he was killed in his prime so everyone can only remember him being on top. He didn't stick around long enough to get beat by all the rookies. A few more years and shu would have been all over him and he would be relegated to a driver that had a few good seasons in years past. Its the same way with assassinated leaders. Here in the states JFK gets lots of praise but he was killed before he had a chance to get roped into Vietnam, get caught in affairs with his wife ect. This is why stats and figures matter not how well you think a driver should have been. If you want to go current drivers. Hamilton has had one season where he barely won the championship. Since that date you simply hear excuses about how the team is working against him, the car broke, ect. If you take a hard look at all of your threads they are weak attempts to validate you own beliefs by finding others with the same opinion. I have been trying to just ignore them but they just keep coming.

sennafan24
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Joined: 09 Jul 2013, 17:36

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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flynfrog wrote:so what is the point of this thread then? You want a logical discussion on something that can not be quantified? You will get 5 pages of everyone posting excuses as to why their favorite driver should be the best even though they crashed the car got beat by a teammate hit a seagull ect.


The point of the thread is simple, I want to know to what extent people value stats, like from your post it seems like you value them to a great degree, which if fair enough. Yes, it cannot not be determined fully, but like most things in opinion based it is all subjective and I like to hear different views. I see no reason why we could not have a debate without, "my driver is better than yours"

Simply state if you value them or not, and provide a few examples as to why. You do not even have to name other drivers if you do not want to.
flynfrog wrote:The discussion only goes in circles and you pick out the posts that agree with your position. If you want hard cold truth the reason Senna gets voted best driver in F1 is because he was killed in his prime so everyone can only remember him being on top. He didn't stick around long enough to get beat by all the rookies. A few more years and shu would have been all over him and he would be relegated to a driver that had a few good seasons in years past.
This I disagree with. We will never know how Senna vs Schumi would have played out. I will not go into my opinion as I do not want to prove your point and turn the thread into, my driver is better than yours, because as you said that would be needlessly tiresome. Presenting your opinion as "cold hard truth" I must say I find quite ignorant.
flynfrog wrote:If you take a hard look at all of your threads they are weak attempts to validate you own beliefs by finding others with the same opinion. I have been trying to just ignore them but they just keep coming.
I have only started this, the number 1 and 2 driver thread and the Massa thread. Correct me if I am wrong? I welcome people to disagree and debate that is what I forum is for.

Plus I did not dismiss stats and results 100%, I merely stated that stats usually evoke subjective opinions. I gave the statistical best in Schumacher credit for some of his achievements, like I also gave Vettel his due for beating Webber beyond any perception they could be equal.

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strad
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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Lies...Damn Lies and statistics.
To achieve anything, you must be prepared to dabble on the boundary of disaster.”
Sir Stirling Moss

Richard
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Joined: 15 Apr 2009, 14:41
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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We're a bit hard nosed here when it comes to driver debates.

The winner is the person who wins. It really is that simple. Revisiting statistics for what might have been is wishful thinking.

Harsha
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Joined: 01 Dec 2012, 14:35

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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Stats describes F1 and Theories describes 1F(IF) :)

sennafan24
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Joined: 09 Jul 2013, 17:36

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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richard_leeds wrote:We're a bit hard nosed here when it comes to driver debates.
Fair enough

It was not my intention to re-visit "what might have been" I was merely showing that some stats are open to interpretation like the Senna/Prost 1988 duel or The Lewis/Jenson 2-1/more points saga. Or quantity of WDC's does not always equal best driver.

If that is drifting into "driver debate" territory then I apologize.

Gerhard Berger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2010, 11:17

Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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Stats need context. Even more so in F1 (when judging drivers) because the car they drive has such a massive influence on their numbers.

It is not like tennis or boxing, which are pretty much individual sports (though i know in those sports, your training team can have a big influence on your performance).

sennafan24
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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Gerhard Berger wrote:Stats need context. Even more so in F1 (when judging drivers) because the car they drive has such a massive influence on their numbers.
Exactly.

Boxing is actually a sport where stats through a fighters record do not tell the full story, the amount of fighters with say a 30-0 record padded with wins over bums who have been exposed when they have fought someone decent is very common.

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MOWOG
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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I dislike stats. The phrase "Lies, damn lies and statistics" sums up my point of view. The US has gone mad for sports radio, where paid pontificators talk ad nauseum about player stats, team stats, league stats. The 6-10 AM guys beat the drum, analyzing yesterday's games and telling us what they mean for the games to be played today, and tomorrow and next week and next season, then the 10-2 crew rehashes the same ground, then the 2-6 PM duo does a complete summary of all that has been said previously.

None of it amounts to a pisshole in the snow. Stats can no more predict the outcome of a sporting contest than my great aunt Martha can. And she's dead, poor soul. Stats cannot measure heart, desire, determination or sheer force of will. Stats cannot foresee all the billions of permutations that occur when a group of athletes enter an arena and play a game. All that stats can do is give sport fans something to argue over whilst downing a few pints at the local ale house.

Results are what matter. As Alonso said after he won his first WDC, there were other drivers in the lesser series who were as good or better than him. But he rose to the ranks of Formula One and they did not. Presumably, their "stats" were better than his. But in the final analysis, that counted for nothing.

At the risk of offending a few people. I think stats are for small minded people who are incapable of formulating their own opinions and require others to tell them what they should or shouldn't think. Critical thinking is in short supply these days and the obeisance to statistics has a lot to do with that.

In my opinion. of course. 2 out of 3 people usually disagree with me and the stats show the level of disagreement increases by 14% when the moon is in the 7th house and Jupiter aligns with Mars! :P
Some men go crazy; some men go slow. Some men go just where they want; some men never go.

sennafan24
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Re: How much do Stats tell us about driver performance?

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MOWOG wrote: At the risk of offending a few people. I think stats are for small minded people who are incapable of formulating their own opinions and require others to tell them what they should or shouldn't think. Critical thinking is in short supply these days and the obeisance to statistics has a lot to do with that.
As someone who is currently studying the pros and cons of crime statistics over here in the UK, I am inclined to agree with you =D>

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