2015 Testing Comparative Performance Speculation Thread

[PlatinumZealot]

Mercedes
.
.
.
.
.
+ 0.8 seconds
Williams
+0.5 seconds
Ferrari/Toro Rosso/ RedBull/ Lotus
Sauber
Force India?
Mclaren?

[elf341]

If the Mercedes appears too dominant at the start of the season, we might have another "urgent" rule change designed at denting their advantage (a la FRIC ban). So I think they will be managing their pace and expectations of their pace closely.

[NathanOlder]

Yeah good point. But what could they ban to dent Mercs hopes? Is there anything they have that stands out ? The FRIC was an obvious choice. I cant think of anything that they are known to have better than anyone else other than the whole package in general.

[CBeck113]

If the Mercedes appears too dominant at the start of the season, we might have another "urgent" rule change designed at denting their advantage (a la FRIC ban). So I think they will be managing their pace and expectations of their pace closely.

I believe that this is the right train of thought, but not the real reason: this year the tokens can be spent throughout the year, so any advantage Merc can hide is very critical. I do not believe that they will show their true strengthuntil the end of the season, when their drivers are fighting for the championship and breaking the team orders again. Otherwise they have no need to show the real power of the engine; 0,5s faster will always be enough.

[Sevach]

You are right but best time on Mediums was 1:26.912 and on softs 1:25.345 what is far from best.

Their best time on softs was from Massa day 2 1:24.6.

Other than Lotus no team is "going for it".

[IFK]

Bottas' race-sim here (first graph')
http://blog.autoplus.fr/moncet/2015/02/ ... r-episode/

Averaged 90,5 with only 2 stops, which makes it quicker than RBR's 90,4 with 3 stops.

Rod Nelson told they are behind Merc. RBR still a question but at the moment, they are probably "'a little bit quicker"

[elf341]

The ban risk for Mercedes is obviously in the engine department.

A logical area for FIA to target would be the very complex software governing interaction of powertrain, braking and throttle. Software and mapping is a much cheaper area to suddenly regulate than hardware, and there is precedent in the past for this (e.g. the blowing throttle maps of 2012/13)

There had been rumours at the end of 2014 of phenomenal hp improvement in the 2015 engine (and that the merc engine advantage over renault and ferrari would even /increase/ in '15) -- yet unexpectedly the Mercedes and Williams' performance is muted in the first two tests.


(...that said, aggressively hiding pace is risky business if bad luck puts you back in the race and there's no "live" way of increasing speed - this is more of a Ross Brawn approach. Anyone remember 2011 when Brawn was so confident of the W02's pace that they brought a mule car to the first two tests so as not to give anything away !!)

[f1316]

I think it's funny that people are speculating that Mercedes are hiding pace based on a fast lap they did - which wasn't hidden!

[WaikeCU]

I think it's funny that people are speculating that Mercedes are hiding pace based on a fast lap they did - which wasn't hidden!

A fast lap in Winter testing doesn't mean anything. You don't know anything on fuel load or what setup they are running and whether the parts on the car are legal or illegal. For instance Ferrari and Mercedes both still have illegal camera mountings. I believe Mercedes could still be running a few 2014 parts as well, but who knows? We would only know by Saturday Q1 at Albert Park what each team have in their locker.

[f1316]

I think it's funny that people are speculating that Mercedes are hiding pace based on a fast lap they did - which wasn't hidden!

A fast lap in Winter testing doesn't mean anything. You don't know anything on fuel load or what setup they are running and whether the parts on the car are legal or illegal. For instance Ferrari and Mercedes both still have illegal camera mountings. I believe Mercedes could still be running a few 2014 parts as well, but who knows? We would only know by Saturday Q1 at Albert Park what each team have in their locker.

Precisely my point - there's therefore no reason to jump to the conclusion that they're hiding pace.

[Moose]

So wait... Merc did a bunch of laps, for several days in the 1:26s, and then suddenly pull out a 1:24, and your conclusion from that is that Merc weren't hiding their pace?

Where on earth did they suddenly find 2 seconds from then?

[f1316]

So wait... Merc did a bunch of laps, for several days in the 1:26s, and then suddenly pull out a 1:24, and your conclusion from that is that Merc weren't hiding their pace?

Where on earth did they suddenly find 2 seconds from then?

No, that's not what I'm saying at all - but btw, running with higher fuel is not necessarily 'hiding' pace, it's just following a prescribed testing program, where they don't run low fuel from the very beginning .

But no, I'm responding to the many posts above suggesting that Mercedes are still hiding their true pace because otherwise the fia will change the rules just to thwart them.

[Fabien]

I don't think the FIA is stupid enough to change rules based on Mercedes pace in testing. The only point of hiding pace in testing is to delay the moment your opponents will look for your "magic trick" if you happen to have one.

[elf341]

But no, I'm responding to the many posts above suggesting that Mercedes are still hiding their true pace because otherwise the fia will change the rules just to thwart them.

You challenged the idea that Mercedes' pace was fully hidden by evidencing the 1.24 lap on the mediums and how that showed true pace. This is a valid observation.

However, I don't think your posts respond to the idea that Mercedes may intentionally limit the visibility of their true raw pace.

I agree with Fabien's view. Even before the 1.24 lap, other teams listed Merc as the benchmark - this is probably based on the fact that their times don't look awful, and the regulations have stayed fairly similar to last year.

It is in Mercedes' interest to make the competition believe that they are perhaps a mere 7 or 8 tenths faster rather than 17 or 18 tenths faster.

[WaikeCU]

hiding your true pace is making your opponents think they are doing a great job.