Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
I just noticed that hamilton could win the next 6 races and still be behind rosberg , who I would expect to finish second such is the performance of the mercedes
were it not for the silly reversing in the pit lane / missing a cone incidents [ both stupid rulings in my view , politically motivated ] combined with grid penalties he is bound to suffer for exceeding equipment limits I would have said he had a chance even so , but as it stands I can't see it happening
am I alone ?
to the optimist a glass is half full ; to the pessimist a glass is half empty ; to the F1 engineer the glass is twice as big as it needs to be
I said yes, but after reading your post no lol. Rosberg will have at least one problem at some point tho.
Education is that which allows a nation free, independent, reputable life, and function as a high society; or it condemns it to captivity and poverty.
-Atatürk
Hard to say. As a Hamilton supporter, i think Rosberg is mighty. Too good, for my biased liking.
It's hard to say though, as we have not had a race yet where a fair assessment was realistic. So it's hard to say how close they are. I have full confidence in Hamiltons ability, but i dont think one can expect him to win race after race. If we take last year, i think the ratio could be more like 2/3rds in Hamiltons favor, if he can get it done (which would be mighty). Points gap is 43 points = 6.14 races or 7 to pass him in points. That would mean 19 races until they are equal on points (13 wins, 6 2nds) .... with 17 races to go (with tomorrows included).... so no. Not enough races.
Assuming only Mercedes occupy the front row in the race, Hamilton needs to ne better than winning 2 in every 3 races.
That is a mighty mighty task.
The problem is only exaggerated when you consider;
- 2 reprimands
- less engines?
- more pressure because of being behind
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
Just for the record, i dont believe these were the last technical issues. A DNF for either is very likely to happen.
I just wouldnt want to rely on circumstance, so assuming no technical issues for either relativizes how mighty of a task overcoming a 43 point difference is. It starts now and tomorrow and the pressure of a clean getaway will be immense tomorrow....
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
Of course he can, but every race it will be more unlikely. Looking at the last two years, over 17 races (not counting the last three were there was nothing at stake), Hamilton is about this margin of points faster.
Let's hope for competition sake it's going to be close. But from now on, it's Rosberg's to loose.,.
Every driver who has won the first three races of the season has gone on to win the title. Rosberg is going to have to hit some serious issues to not win the title this year.
Rosberg knows he can afford for Hamilton to win 2 or 3 races in a row so long as he wins the next one. Do that two or three times and Hamilton runs out of time. I think Rosberg will be relaxed by this and a relaxed Rosberg is a fast Rosberg.
All Hamilton van do is drive to win and hope for some luck to go his way. He can't put Rosberg under pressure - unless he does the very unlikely feat of winning the next 7 races in a row, of course.
If you are more fortunate than others, build a larger table not a taller fence.
Rosberg still could get DNF's this year like Ham's had. If Hamilton wins this GP, and Rosberg is out [ due to technical issues like that has plagued HAM before, or due to contact ] then Hamilton closes to Ros by 25 points, having a difference of just 22 points with still what, 17 races to go?
Meanwhile, 2014, Hamilton started the year also with some setbacks and beat Ros fair and square. So really, anything can happen.
So much can happen actually, that if RedBull gets an upgraded Renault engine, and Ferrari manages to finally fix their issues and USE their real potential, then positions can swap
before the season is half gone, which really means that by the end of 2016, Vettel, Raikkonen, Ricciardo, perhaps even Verstappen might be potential WDC instead of thinking
Rosberg already has it in the bag.
so to answer clearly:
YEAH, Hamilton can still be WDC this year even if ROS does not have any problems.
this is just the 5th race for crying out loud.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
Except that i dont see any realistic other contender. That Mercedes is so strong that bearing any circumstance, a 1-2 is the logical assumption for pretty much every remaining race. Unlikely to turn out every race, but likely on most.
So, like it or not, from the next 17 races starting with Spain tomorrow, a Mercedes win and potential 1-2 is quite likely, adding pressure to the one Mercedes driver battling it out with other WDC contender, his team mate...
IMHO it boils down to this: Rosberg can afford a DNF, Hamilton cant. If it hits Hamilton again, or if he fails to close the gap in a meaningful way (meaning that the gap increases further), this season will be a too steep hill to climb.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
Yes he can, assuming equitable reliability and technical issues for both drivers.
No he can't, if Rosberg has no reliability issues.
I'm no fanboy of Hamilton, or Rosberg, but Hamilton is capable enough of winning this assuming comparable issues for both drivers from here onward. Where it gets difficult is if Rosberg has no issues at all, and Hamilton has some.
In 2014, Hamilton had 3 retirements to Rosberg's 2. Outside of those races, the lowest Hamilton finished was 3rd (twice), Rosberg 4th (once); Rosberg never finished 3rd; 2nd or higher for everything else for both drivers. Of the races where they finished 1-2, Hamilton held an 8-3 advantage.
In 2015, Rosberg had 2 retirements to Hamilton's 1. Hungary was a bit of an aberration where they both finished in unusual positions (6th [H] and 8th [R]). Beyond that, we have a 4th and two 3rd places for Rosberg, one 3rd for Hamilton. All other finishes being 2nd or higher. In 12 1-2 finishes, Hamilton held a 7-5 advantage.
If Mercedes managed to have perfect weekends from this point onward Hamilton should win the head-to-head within a range of 12-5 to 10-7. 12-5 would yield a final points total of 447-441 in Hamilton's favour. 10-7, and the result is 433-455 in Rosberg's favour.
Perfection from this moment onward is unreasonable though. In 2014 there were 8 instances of Mercedes not finishing 1-2; there were 7 such instances in 2015. When these happen, Hamilton is usually the beneficiary; he scored 48 points more than Rosberg in 2014, and 45 more in 2015. 93 points better from 15 examples, so let's say 6 points per non-optimal race.
In 2016 there have been 2 examples of Mercedes not scoring 1-2 finishes. Based on 2014 and 2015 data, we can expect 6-7 more of these events. If form holds, Hamilton should generate about 30-40 points more than Rosberg from these alone. I'll assume there will be 10 more 1-2 finishes, and model Hamilton 7-3 or 6-4 ahead of Rosberg.
Given normal circumstances, the remainder of the season should yield a close result. Hamilton should, under historical circumstances, win the title. If Rosberg benefits from further reliability problems of Hamilton, or simply raises his game, the outcome swings in his favour. Whether he is capable of holding his nerve to actually win from a winning position remains to be seen.
Given normal circumstances, the remainder of the season should yield a close result. Hamilton should, under historical circumstances, win the title. If Rosberg benefits from further reliability problems of Hamilton, or simply raises his game, the outcome swings in his favour. Whether he is capable of holding his nerve to actually win from a winning position remains to be seen.
That is a well crafted analysis of the potential results for the rest of the season, it matches exactly my thoughts and hopes.
The season is far from over, either driver can, and probably will experience a set back and add to that the resurgence of Red Bull and we have the potential for a mighty climax. I have been a Hamilton Fan for years but firstly I am an F1 fan and I am enjoying this season so far. The roller coaster ride has just reached the top of the first climb, buckle up and either hold your hands above your head and scream for more, or hunker down and close your eyes, the rest of the ride from here is going to be exciting.
I hope Hamilton, Ricciardo and co have no more reliability issues or spoiled races due to accidents, not because I want Rosberg to lose but I want F1 to win by providing a thrilling unpredictable finale to the season.
SR71 wrote:Will Mercedes keep giving Lewis upgrade priority?
Edit: imagine how insecure you'd have to be to downvote this statement of fact and not be man enough to admit it was you.
I've just downvoted it. Why? It's not a "statement of fact", it's a question. I also downvoted it because you dared us to.
As for the sentiment behind your question, here's one for you; do you support the multiple champion or the journeyman with a habit of dropping the ball when under pressure?
If you are more fortunate than others, build a larger table not a taller fence.
