Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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notsofast
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Manoah2u wrote:Didn't Abu Dhabi in 2012 decide that WDC in favor of Vettel against Alonso whom was held up by Petrov?
2010

psychemedia
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Joined: 10 Apr 2015, 13:39
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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I popped up a simple interactive that lets you select finishing positions for HAM and ROS in the next race and it will then display who takes the Drivers' Championship depending on finishing positions in the last race:

Image

https://blog.ouseful.info/2016/10/31/ru ... mpionship/

Manoah2u
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Joined: 24 Feb 2013, 14:07

Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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notsofast wrote:
Manoah2u wrote:Didn't Abu Dhabi in 2012 decide that WDC in favor of Vettel against Alonso whom was held up by Petrov?
2010
Whoa, how fast time goes then.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"

Fulcrum
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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My model suggests Rosberg has a 29% chance of wrapping it up in Brazil.

Overall, the model suggests 74% for Rosberg, 26% for Hamilton.

If Rosberg DNF in Brazil, the split is 40% Rosberg, 60% Hamilton.
If Hamilton DNF in Brazil, the split is 98.6% Rosberg, 1.4% Hamilton.
If both DNF in Brazil, the split is 88% Rosberg, 12% Hamilton.

Incidentally, the current betting odds of 1 to 4 for Rosberg and 10 to 3 for Hamilton suggest the bookies are pricing Rosberg at 77.61% to win the championship, much the same as mine. They're probably factoring in some historical performance criteria for Brazil and Abu Dhabi. Hamilton hasn't had the best series of results in Brazil, which would explain the higher odds on Rosberg.

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GPR-A duplicate2
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Joined: 07 Aug 2014, 09:00

Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Manoah2u wrote:
notsofast wrote:
Manoah2u wrote:Didn't Abu Dhabi in 2012 decide that WDC in favor of Vettel against Alonso whom was held up by Petrov?
2010
Whoa, how fast time goes then.
You are getting a little old mate. :lol:

Interestingly, the only time Vettel lead the championship in 2010, was at the end of Abu Dhabi GP. :!:

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Phil
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Am I correct in assuming that if Hamilton wins today in Brazil with Rosberg 2nd, then Rosberg will have to finish at least 3rd in Abu Dhabi (assuming Hamilton wins).

If he finishes 4th, they will be tied on points, but Hamilton will have more wins.

If Lewis wins today in Brazil, they will be tied on wins (both 9 wins each).

Posted this on lap 20 of the Brazilian GP (Red-Flag).
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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flynfrog
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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how does it work out with half points?

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Phil
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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....with half points, I'm figuring Rosberg can stop for ice cream in AbuDhabi and still comfortably win the championship....


Diff without half points: 7 points. Half points: 3.5.
Current point gap: 19pts. 19 - 3.5 = 15.5pt. So Rosberg can be 5th.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

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Steven
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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So, standings after Brazilian GP
1.	Nico Rosberg 	367
2.	Lewis Hamilton 	355
Gap is 12 points, and each of them won 9 races I think.

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nevill3
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Steven wrote:So, standings after Brazilian GP
1.	Nico Rosberg 	367
2.	Lewis Hamilton 	355
Gap is 12 points, and each of them won 9 races I think.
Yes both have now won 9 races, if Hamilton wins the last race Nico needs to score 13 points to match his score, so 2nd or 3rd would be enough for Nico
Sent from my Commodore PET in 1978

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SectorOne
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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nevill3 wrote:Yes both have now won 9 races, if Hamilton wins the last race Nico needs to score 13 points to match his score, so 2nd or 3rd would be enough for Nico
So in reality only a DNF will stop Rosberg from becoming world champion. OR, one hell of a race :)
"If the only thing keeping a person decent is the expectation of divine reward, then brother that person is a piece of sh*t"

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Phil
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Yes, I'd say so. I'd also say that statistically, it is far more likely to see a Mercedes 1-2 in Abu Dhabi than it was to see the same apply in Brazil under rainy conditions. If I were Nico Rosberg, I'd be feeling quite comfortable. Abu Dhabi is also rather predictable - hard to overtake, the weather and temperature is consistent, so we probably won't see many surprises, especially not at the front. Having said that; Nico usually goes well in AD - he got pole in both 2014 and 2015, even though it's supposedly a Lewis Hamilton track. In 2014, arguably under immense pressure, given what was at stake and him needing the win to have a chance at the WDC, he nailed pole, but lost the race at the start, then later fell back as trouble hit his car.

In 2015, he also grabbed pole and the win - yes LH had already won the WDC, but arguably, under no pressure, he failed to to challenge Rosberg.

Having said that, I think I see a trend that Rosberg is feeling comfortable - maybe too comfortable - and once again is playing the number game, not taking too many risks. This has arguably led him to lose the championship in 2014 IMO when he drove far less aggressive in a few GPs that later made the difference. If he continues this and he does suffer a technical malfunction during the race, it could be over pretty quick and the WDC lost.

Having said that - I don't see that happening. He needs at least a 3rd place and given the car advantage, I don't think that should be too hard to achieve, even if he drives with more margin and tries to go easy on his engine. My pick is on a very uneventful 1-2 for Mercedes in Abu Dhabi.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

Gettingonabit
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Joined: 26 Mar 2013, 19:25

Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Phil wrote:................................. - I don't see that happening. He needs at least a 3rd place and given the car advantage, I don't think that should be too hard to achieve, even if he drives with more margin and tries to go easy on his engine. My pick is on a very uneventful 1-2 for Mercedes in Abu Dhabi.
Yep, I think you're right and to be honest that would be the sensible thing to do - 3rd should be a cake walk in the Merc.

Manoah2u
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Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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Then again, there's still vettel to stir it all up by turning Nico into a mere bowling pin.

Rosberg will probably have a walk in the park in AbuDhabi.
To be honest, i'm even expecting him to do a pole lap and cruise away into the distance.

If not, and Lewis gets P1, then the race might become either a 2nd place or 3rd place cruise with not even one worry,
and we'll be able to hear bob marley through nico's earphones and get that 1st WDC,

or,

there's still the lingering potential of both the RedBulls and the Ferrari's.

Brazil offcourse was a rather crazy race thanks to the weather and brazil being brazil, BUT if we take that aside and analyse just a tiny bit,
then one can't deny that Ferrari was massively strong and RedBull likewise.

I don't know how well AbuDhabi is going to suit them, but i have a feeling there could be some unexpected party-trashing from both camps.

3rd is enough for Nico, but if he's NOT in P1, he's a target. The RedBulls seem superb and the Ferrari's are bloodthirsty.

It plays in Nico's favor that it takes MORE than just 1 of them to ruin his game. Nevertheless, there are 4 potential candidates to jump in and
get that 2 spots stolen. Worse, is that they might even take him out.

It's the last GP and it's championship deciding for Nico. No matter how you put it, if he's anything but P1 from Qually and 1st corner, then he's going
to feel all the pressure coming together in 1 race. If any driver passes him, whoever that may be, he's going to get in his mind that it can all go away from
him in the final race, and the worse of it all is that that tension might cause him to lose his calm and then that costing him dearly in the end.

Verstappen and Ricciardo are probably strike 1 to endanger his chances, it's not unlikely that 1 of them gets between him and Hamilton. Less likely that
it'll turn out to be both, but it's certainly not impossible. The real danger imho as said comes from Ferrari, whom are desperate for points, desperate for
podium, a Kimi that is annoyed with how things have been and not giving AF about who he meets along the road, and Vettel being the absolute out of his
game wrecking ball frustration bomb that will not leave any chance uncalled to do anything to get that Ferrari on the podium.

P3 is reacheable for Ferrari, P2 is reachable for RedBull. it's far from over unless Lewis is out or anything outside of P1. I'm not ruling out a P1 for RedBull
either to be honest.

There is 100% sure not going to be any rain, so that won't play into the chances.

It can be either one of them at this point.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"

Fulcrum
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Joined: 25 Aug 2014, 18:05

Re: Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

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There are basically only four sources of variation that determine Rosberg's race outcome:

1) Hamilton.
2) Qualifying.
3) Start.
4) Technical/reliability issues.

Obviously there are interaction effects; technical issues can affect the starting procedure, qualifying, etc... Likewise, they can influence Hamilton.

For the most part, Hamilton is beyond Rosberg's control, especially when Hamilton is 1st after the first lap. Rosberg can win the championship without worrying about Hamilton - quite a luxury.

Where Rosberg has been outstanding this season - or delivering what you would expect, depending on your perspective - is securing front rows, and generally starting well. When you drive a car like he does, this is a significant component of the battle won.

If there are no surprises at the start or during qualifying, Hamilton's chances surely rely on a technical issue or reliability failure for Rosberg. The Red Bulls will be quick in Abu Dhabi, but I don't think they'll be quicker than the Mercedes.