The Race To Ash Covered Europe Begins

[WhiteBlue]

I'm convinced that 90% of the German, French, Italian and Spanish flights could have been executed if a better prediction of the ash levels and proper procedures had been developed for the scenario. I'm not saying the governments did something wrong. But if this thing happens again and all parties are 100% prepared very few flights outside the UK and Scandinavia would be called off. Air traffic to Germany is almost back to normal now. It turns out that airlines can manage with radar guided VFR in most cases and that the turbine damage from very low ash intake can be deal with by increased boroscopic inspection schedules.

[andrew]

I'm convinced that 90% of the German, French, Italian and Spanish flights could have been executed if a better prediction of the ash levels and proper procedures had been developed for the scenario. I'm not saying the governments did something wrong. But if this thing happens again and all parties are 100% prepared very few flights outside the UK and Scandinavia would be called off. Air traffic to Germany is almost back to normal now. It turns out that airlines can manage with radar guided VFR in most cases and that the turbine damage from very low ash intake can be deal with by increased boroscopic inspection schedules.

I think that part of the problem is that no one is 100% sure of what is happening. There were reports last night of the ash cloud subsiding and flights starting over the next few days. On other channels at the same time the reports were saying that there was away to be a second larger cloud from the same volcano and this morning there was word of a second volcano nearby possibly erupting!

The ash cloud seems to be an unkown quantity in many respects and the official advice from the aviation authorities is to play things safe which is really the only thing the airlines can do.

[autogyro]

The trouble is, predictions on the density and danger posed by the ash cloud has been done using computer simulation and not reality.
The British Labour government had no choice, because last Month it had taken out of service the only aircraft with a radar capable of giving acurate 'real' data, the MK3 Nimrod.
So as usual everything is being done using guess work and the results have taken humanity a little further away from reality.
The ash cloud is pretty much dispersed now so flights are resuming, the only problem is another ash cloud is on its way and there is the possibility of a much bigger eruption.

[andrew]

The trouble is, predictions on the density and danger posed by the ash cloud has been done using computer simulation and not reality.
The British Labour government had no choice, because last Month it had taken out of service the only aircraft with a radar capable of giving acurate 'real' data, the MK3 Nimrod.
So as usual everything is being done using guess work and the results have taken humanity a little further away from reality.
The ash cloud is pretty much dispersed now so flights are resuming, the only problem is another ash cloud is on its way and there is the possibility of a much bigger eruption.

The problem with a computer simulation is that it is only as good as the programmer and the available data.

The only 100% definite thing to say is that the disruption is going to continue for quite sometime.

[WhiteBlue]

The trouble is, predictions on the density and danger posed by the ash cloud has been done using computer simulation and not reality.
The British Labour government had no choice, because last Month it had taken out of service the only aircraft with a radar capable of giving acurate 'real' data, the MK3 Nimrod.
So as usual everything is being done using guess work and the results have taken humanity a little further away from reality.
The ash cloud is pretty much dispersed now so flights are resuming, the only problem is another ash cloud is on its way and there is the possibility of a much bigger eruption.

The German goverment has started to scan the skies with a specially laser equipped Falcon 20E jet aircraft operated by DLR.



The aircraft operated from 16:00 - 20:45 hours MESZ on Monday scanned the skies in flight from Oberpfaffenhofen to Leipzig, via Hamburg to Bilthoven (Netherlands) and via Stuttgart back to Oberpfaffenhofen (Munich) with a LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging)-Instrument. The LIDAR shows the vertical layers of ash clouds. These ash layers were encountered at different flight levels during the measuring flight. The aerosol measurements suggest that the flight was crossing aged ash clouds. Above 6000 m the total European airspace is now clear and has been released by the authorities to normal traffic. Residual areas with dust are between 3000 and 6000 m.

For the last 24 hours the volcanic emissions in Iceland are reported to have switched largely from ash to lava with the initial ash cloud now only 500 m high instead of several thousand meters it measured in the begin. It is clear that currently very little new ash is reaching the continent south of Scandinavia and the UK. Lufthansa have executed 200 flights of their usual 1800 flights today. They expect that quote of 15% to increase rapidly.

[ESPImperium]

The trouble is, predictions on the density and danger posed by the ash cloud has been done using computer simulation and not reality.
The British Labour government had no choice, because last Month it had taken out of service the only aircraft with a radar capable of giving acurate 'real' data, the MK3 Nimrod.
So as usual everything is being done using guess work and the results have taken humanity a little further away from reality.
The ash cloud is pretty much dispersed now so flights are resuming, the only problem is another ash cloud is on its way and there is the possibility of a much bigger eruption.

Very good point about the Nimrod, but in a area of our modren lifes, air travel and air security, the bottom line is saftey, and thats why the Nimrod was taken out of service by the Armed Forces. The thing is that we are 13 years away from developing a new one, and arround 2-3 years away from being able to equip and modify a suitable intrim replacement for the Nimrod.

The Nimrod could have done the surveys needed, but the thing is that getting the results needed now is gonna be more of a priority, watch governments spend a little money on getting a intrim measure up and running.

The funny thing i heard was that Cristian Horner and Mark Webber and a group from Red Bull decided to travel from Shanghai to the USA and Canada then to Iceland and then if they had to wait for a flight to Scotland it would be the quickest way, thing is that it almost was, only Ross Brawn and Sam Michael have beaten the Red Bull guys home ith a flight to Dubai, then onward to Spain and then from Spain to the UK by car.

Currently the BBC 5Live guys have arround 150Km to Paris and the BBC1 guys minus DC have just got on the ferry to Dover from Calais:

[andrew]

Quite a good page on the BBC website this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8625813.stm

There is a map showing the areas affected by the ash cloud along with related links.

[Edis]

I'm convinced that 90% of the German, French, Italian and Spanish flights could have been executed if a better prediction of the ash levels and proper procedures had been developed for the scenario. I'm not saying the governments did something wrong. But if this thing happens again and all parties are 100% prepared very few flights outside the UK and Scandinavia would be called off. Air traffic to Germany is almost back to normal now. It turns out that airlines can manage with radar guided VFR in most cases and that the turbine damage from very low ash intake can be deal with by increased boroscopic inspection schedules.

Aircraft engine manufacturer doesn't allow any ash in the air for flight. So any ash is too much.

Ash is highly abrasive and contrain very small particles. They will damage fans and compressors by erosion, they will end up in the engine oil. They will melt in the combustion chamber where their high sulphur levels will cause corrision in a rapid rate, and they can cause a flame out. They will solidify on the turbines where they will damage their heat insulating surface and they can also clog the small cooling air channels that are used to cool the hot parts in the engine causing the engine to overheat.

[ESPImperium]

Some intresting ways home:

http://motorsport.nextgen-auto.com/F1-w ... urope.html

[autogyro]

I'm convinced that 90% of the German, French, Italian and Spanish flights could have been executed if a better prediction of the ash levels and proper procedures had been developed for the scenario. I'm not saying the governments did something wrong. But if this thing happens again and all parties are 100% prepared very few flights outside the UK and Scandinavia would be called off. Air traffic to Germany is almost back to normal now. It turns out that airlines can manage with radar guided VFR in most cases and that the turbine damage from very low ash intake can be deal with by increased boroscopic inspection schedules.

Aircraft engine manufacturer doesn't allow any ash in the air for flight. So any ash is too much.

Ash is highly abrasive and contrain very small particles. They will damage fans and compressors by erosion, they will end up in the engine oil. They will melt in the combustion chamber where their high sulphur levels will cause corrision in a rapid rate, and they can cause a flame out. They will solidify on the turbines where they will damage their heat insulating surface and they can also clog the small cooling air channels that are used to cool the hot parts in the engine causing the engine to overheat.

Such a pity the old piston engined airliners are not available. Just fit desert sand filters on the intakes and fly.

[autogyro]

The reason why the Nimrod was taken out of service, was the lack of investment by government and budget cuts.
It is the same reason why so many of our serving military people return in coffins because of the lack of military equipment.
The governement refused to undertake a phazed airframe update on the MK3 Nimrod because it was far cheaper to wait 13 years for the new version.
Yet another short term self serving policy by government at the expense of Britains security and in this case British subjects wishing to get home.

[ESPImperium]

Some Eyjafjallajokul Volcano Eruption video in HD:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/iriya/4526 ... likes_hd=1

[WhiteBlue]

Aircraft engine manufacturer doesn't allow any ash in the air for flight. So any ash is too much.

There are obviously sensible people holding different opinions or we would not have had a bunch of successful flights. There must be levels that are tolerable.

Aircraft engine suppliers do not tolerate sea water in turbines. Nevertheless there are applications which simply use them in sea water contaminated environments and manage the consequences.

[Richard]

The reason why....

Could we keep to the technical aspect such as "The old Nimrod could have done this because it had the right equipment" and leave out the politics please?

We get enough political influence and posturing in our normal lives. What I like about technical forums is that they are usually an oasis to escape to from our complex world.

[raceman]

.....Eyjafjallajokul

boy, this is a real tongue-twister!