Fulcrum wrote: ↑09 Oct 2017, 07:02
I was simply trying to illustrate how remote Vettel's chances actually are, what set of circumstances would be required for Vettel to win with any reasonable likelihood, highlighting how badly unfortunate Hamilton would need to be from this point onward.
Of course, Hamilton is well aware of just how badly title ambitions can implode. In 2007, with four races left, he led Raikkonen by 18 points, equivalent to 43 points under the current scoring system (one 1st, one 2nd).
Not only was the points differential lower than the current one, but Hamilton wasn't driving
the dominant car of the time, didn't have a compliant teammate, was a rookie driver, and general reliability was lower than is the case today.
I appreciate the effort you've put into calculating the odds. My question was only there to highlight how quickly things can change. Prior to Singapore, it was quite farfetched to believe that Ferrari would indeed have as many DNFs as they did - some of them may be indeed down to "pushing to the limits", while the other was simply down to a slight misjudgement that made an entire race evaporate within seconds and a few hundred meters of the GP. You bring up 2007 and mention that Hamilton wasn't driving the dominant car of the time - which is true - but the reasons for him watching his championship ambitions implode can be found in two quite frankly unbelievable incidents that beggar belief - 1.) the tire where the team kept him out too long and 2.) the last race where somehow the car went into the pit limiter (if I recall correctly). Excluding both these extraordinary incidents and the championship would have easily been wrapped up with points to spare.
Hamilton now has a 59 point lead. No one is arguing that this isn't substantial or that it isn't Hamilton's to lose. That is beyond dispute.
My only point is, is that a Hamilton DNF could throw things around rather quickly. The statistics may not support this happening, but neither did they in Vettels case prior to Singapore. And DNFs can happen for all sorts of reasons: A faulty DRS flap (Hulkenberg), a driver error, a tire exploding (Stroll), a PU issue or quite frankly, any sort of issue that would prevent the driver from finishing the race. Hamilton is yet to have one this year. Bottas had one and he has had two unscheduled gearbox changes to Hamiltons one. Now that the season is nearing its end, one could say that the strain on components will be at its highest with all components having done a fair share of mileage. It wouldn't be farfetched at all to believe that there's some probability of Hamilton facing some sort of issue. On the other hand, Vettel has two relatively new engines (#4 & #5), although there is a question mark over the unit he used in Suzuka, running on 5 cylinders for 23km. Further than that - the two technical issues Vettel faced were linked to parts outside the power-unit and both from outside suppliers. I am yet to be convinced they are solely due to Ferraris spec 4 that is supposedly running closer to the limit.
I read this very interesting article on the BBC website by Andrew Benson, which sums up pretty accurately what I feel (and felt prior to Suzuka) as far as the championship goes:
http://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/41543657
Andrew Benson wrote:The Mercedes might be the fastest car over one lap this season, at least with Hamilton in it. But the Ferrari is a more consistent and usable - and often faster - race car, with a wider operating window.
(...)
If Hamilton's fourth world title now appears an inevitability, winning it might not happen as soon as it appears.
Assuming Ferrari can get a handle on their reliability problems, they can be expected to be competitive at the next race, the United States Grand Prix. In which case, it is hard to see Hamilton gaining the 16 points over Vettel he needs to clinch the title there.
After that comes Mexico, about which Mercedes have serious concerns. The long straights might suggest a power track that will play to the silver car's strengths. But in fact, because of the high altitude, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City is a track where teams run at maximum downforce. And Ferrari - and Red Bull, for that matter - have a better high-downforce package than Mercedes.
The Mercedes engineers, therefore, have concerns that Mexico could be another weekend like Russia, Monaco, Hungary and Singapore where they are on the back foot. In which case, all things being equal, Hamilton could struggle even to make the podium.
There are aspects of the tracks at Brazil and Abu Dhabi - particularly the twisty sectors, in the middle of the lap at Interlagos and the end at Yas Marina - that are also likely to favour Ferrari and Red Bull. So the whole "one race at a time" mantra is more than merely the usual sportsman's schtick.
I don't like entertaining IF-scenarios either, but sometimes, they are interesting to get a clearer picture of the real pecking order between drivers and their cars. On the whole, Mercedes have been very efficient this year and quite frankly
lucky as well. In at least Singapore, Malaysia and Suzuka, Vettel lost a lot of points to his rival on tracks where it was very evident that the Ferrari was going to be the car to beat on two occasions (Singapore/Malaysia). Yes, Singapore remains a big if, considering it was a wet track (which always changes the pecking order), but had it been dry as it had been on any other occasion in the history of the Singapore GP, there's little doubt that Ferrari and Vettel would have been the car to beat.
In Malaysia, Hamilton may have stuck that car on pole in qualifying, but it was again quite evident that the car struggled big time during the race. Hamilton himself said post-race that the race matched their expectations - as in that RedBull had 4 tenths on them and Ferrari 8 tenths. There was little doubt in Hamiltons own mind that Max would have found a way past. It was a Christmas gift in its own right that Vettel, faced with the issue in QF would be starting from back of the grid, but even more so that Kimi who was starting from 2nd, miraculously faced the same issue just before the start. If Kimi had not suffered the same faith, there's little to suggest he wouldn't have somehow ended up in front of Hamilton (ignoring all kind of freak incidents that could have happened) in what was clearly the quickest car during the race (evident by the pace Vettel showed throughout the weekend and the race starting from behind). If it had been a routine weekend for Ferrari, I have little in my mind that Hamilton would have finished a distant 4th at best behind both Ferraris and most probably both RedBulls too - yet, he managed to be 2nd at the mercy of Ferraris struggles.
In Suzuka, I'm not convinced Ferrari would have won - in fact, I'm quite confident Hamilton/Mercedes would have held on to the win, even with perhaps a more or just as competitive Ferrari behind. But again, it's amazing that Vettel walked away after just 23km with zero points after having perhaps the fastest or 2nd fastest car on race day and starting in the first row alongside Hamilton.
If you add these points together, and ignore the tire blowout they've had at Silverstone (a very unfortunate last lap incident) that cost Vettel a lot of points (he finished 7th instead a guaranteed 3rd), but also add Baku to the races where Hamilton should have easily won to Seb coming in 2nd and you will find that Ferrari/Vettel should/could be still leading this years championship. By my calculations, by 9 points in fact.
first column; as it happened, 2nd column, as it might have considering the cars true pace
Note that I gave a 2nd place to Vettel in Malaysia. It's hard to predict where he would have qualified etc, but given Kimi was 2nd, it wouldn't be that far off to assume that Vettel could have stuck it on pole. So giving 2nd to Vettel is being slightly pessimistic.
Anyway, these numbers are just here to show and highlight that indeed Ferrari has built a fabulous car. I'd still give the edge to Mercedes on the basis that it is clearly the fastest car in qualifying, but on the races the Mercedes has not dominated, it has shown itself to be rather vulnerable, which is how Vettel has hung on rather well and lead this years championship for the majority of it, despite having less wins under his belt.
Looking forward, it's indeed Hamilton's championship to lose as it stands. I do however still think that the last 3 races this year, that being Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi, could prove to be a bit of an achilles' heel for them, considering how strong Ferrari is (ignoring their unfortunate issues last two races) and especially with RedBull coming on as strong as they have in recent races, despite the PU handicap they face.
CotA IMO will be an important race for Hamilton. If he does well, then it will set up things nicely, even if the last 3 races end up being a nightmare for Mercedes (worst-case scenario). If Hamilton faces a DNF there (driver or technical related), it would IMO run this championship very close on the assumption that Ferrari could be the strongest car still.
Motosport is a very unpredictable sport sometimes. Hamilton experienced this first hand in 2007, but also in 2008 and 2016, as did Vettel in 2010 and 2012 and not least Alonso on more than numerous occasions.
Interesting fun fact btw:
Valtteri Bottas is currently 72 points behind Hamilton. If Hamilton extends this by just another 3 points in CotA, Bottas will be out of it mathematically. In other words if Hamilton finishes ahead of Bottas and beyond 4th place, Bottas is out.
Interesting analogy. 
