2017 Championship Permutations

[GPR-A duplicate2]

There are probably more but those that come to my mind immediately. Now, Vettel has had his fair share of bad luck with Malaysia and Japan and I am yet to see compelling arguments those issues (carbon in-take and spark-plugs) are because Ferrari has been pushing too far on their spec4 engine. To me, they sound like silly mistakes. The carbon-in-take issue sounds like bad quality-control that manifested itself in both cars almost at the same time, but once the faulty part was replaced, Vettel showed a very good incident free race. In Japan, the spark plug issue only hit Vettel and there is indication that Mercedes could have run into the same issue (they exchanged spark plugs on Hamiltons car before the race as well). Maybe just very unfortunate bad luck.

Gary Anderson has said it well in his autosport article (premium).

Some would say luck plays a big part in success, but I don't subscribe to that. In this game, you make your own luck by eliminating as many of the potential problems as you can. When everything is going well, it's easy, but when the chips are down you see the real strength of a team. I'm not seeing that strength at Ferrari at the moment, but I am seeing it at Mercedes.
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Apparently, Mercedes also had a spark plug problem between qualifying and the race but managed to identify it when there was time to correct it. Now, these spark plugs are not like the one in your Briggs & Stratton lawnmower engine; as with any part of an F1 car, they are very sophisticated pieces of kit buried deep in the engine.

So you have to ask if Mercedes has better monitoring protocols in place that detect potential problems earlier? It wouldn't surprise me, because Mercedes seems to do everything else that little bit better - so why not that as well?

[Jolle]

There are probably more but those that come to my mind immediately. Now, Vettel has had his fair share of bad luck with Malaysia and Japan and I am yet to see compelling arguments those issues (carbon in-take and spark-plugs) are because Ferrari has been pushing too far on their spec4 engine. To me, they sound like silly mistakes. The carbon-in-take issue sounds like bad quality-control that manifested itself in both cars almost at the same time, but once the faulty part was replaced, Vettel showed a very good incident free race. In Japan, the spark plug issue only hit Vettel and there is indication that Mercedes could have run into the same issue (they exchanged spark plugs on Hamiltons car before the race as well). Maybe just very unfortunate bad luck.

Gary Anderson has said it well in his autosport article (premium).

Some would say luck plays a big part in success, but I don't subscribe to that. In this game, you make your own luck by eliminating as many of the potential problems as you can. When everything is going well, it's easy, but when the chips are down you see the real strength of a team. I'm not seeing that strength at Ferrari at the moment, but I am seeing it at Mercedes.
.
.
.
Apparently, Mercedes also had a spark plug problem between qualifying and the race but managed to identify it when there was time to correct it. Now, these spark plugs are not like the one in your Briggs & Stratton lawnmower engine; as with any part of an F1 car, they are very sophisticated pieces of kit buried deep in the engine.

So you have to ask if Mercedes has better monitoring protocols in place that detect potential problems earlier? It wouldn't surprise me, because Mercedes seems to do everything else that little bit better - so why not that as well?

I agree with Anderson on this. I think i said it in the Ferrari PU forum as well, these snags are part of building a team and putting systems in place. Ferrari has had a big re-organisation the past few years, just like Mercedes had a couple of years ago. When the right team is in place the major parts fall into place first (better output, efficiency) and all those small snags and details come more slowly. Don't forget, Mercedes had these small things failing too in '14 and '15.

[Restomaniac]

There are probably more but those that come to my mind immediately. Now, Vettel has had his fair share of bad luck with Malaysia and Japan and I am yet to see compelling arguments those issues (carbon in-take and spark-plugs) are because Ferrari has been pushing too far on their spec4 engine. To me, they sound like silly mistakes. The carbon-in-take issue sounds like bad quality-control that manifested itself in both cars almost at the same time, but once the faulty part was replaced, Vettel showed a very good incident free race. In Japan, the spark plug issue only hit Vettel and there is indication that Mercedes could have run into the same issue (they exchanged spark plugs on Hamiltons car before the race as well). Maybe just very unfortunate bad luck.

Gary Anderson has said it well in his autosport article (premium).

Some would say luck plays a big part in success, but I don't subscribe to that. In this game, you make your own luck by eliminating as many of the potential problems as you can. When everything is going well, it's easy, but when the chips are down you see the real strength of a team. I'm not seeing that strength at Ferrari at the moment, but I am seeing it at Mercedes.
.
.
.
Apparently, Mercedes also had a spark plug problem between qualifying and the race but managed to identify it when there was time to correct it. Now, these spark plugs are not like the one in your Briggs & Stratton lawnmower engine; as with any part of an F1 car, they are very sophisticated pieces of kit buried deep in the engine.

So you have to ask if Mercedes has better monitoring protocols in place that detect potential problems earlier? It wouldn't surprise me, because Mercedes seems to do everything else that little bit better - so why not that as well?

I agree with Anderson on this. I think i said it in the Ferrari PU forum as well, these snags are part of building a team and putting systems in place. Ferrari has had a big re-organisation the past few years, just like Mercedes had a couple of years ago. When the right team is in place the major parts fall into place first (better output, efficiency) and all those small snags and details come more slowly. Don't forget, Mercedes had these small things failing too in '14 and '15.

The other worry is that Mercedes are on the back foot due to them losing an integral part of their car (trick suspension). It has taken them (if they actually have) and Reb Bull all season to find a work around. Next season they will have designed a car from the ground up without it as well as Red Bull being in the march. Will Ferrari get this good a chance again?

[Jolle]

Gary Anderson has said it well in his autosport article (premium).

I agree with Anderson on this. I think i said it in the Ferrari PU forum as well, these snags are part of building a team and putting systems in place. Ferrari has had a big re-organisation the past few years, just like Mercedes had a couple of years ago. When the right team is in place the major parts fall into place first (better output, efficiency) and all those small snags and details come more slowly. Don't forget, Mercedes had these small things failing too in '14 and '15.

The other worry is that Mercedes are on the back foot due to them losing an integral part of their car (trick suspension). It has taken them (if they actually have) and Reb Bull all season to find a work around. Next season they will have designed a car from the ground up without it as well are Red Bull being in the march. Will Ferrari get this good a chance again?

Well, for next year... so many questions, so many possibilities. The margins are quite small, it's all about who will take the most risk on how much to re-design the package. In 14-16 Mercedes were so far ahead, they could do an extended evo version each year, finetuning. Ferrari had to take some sharp turns, which not always worked out well. This year it looks closer within the three top teams. I could see Mercedes doing an evo again and Ferrari doing one of their kamikaze turns.

[Phil]

I agree with Anderson on this. I think i said it in the Ferrari PU forum as well, these snags are part of building a team and putting systems in place. Ferrari has had a big re-organisation the past few years, just like Mercedes had a couple of years ago. When the right team is in place the major parts fall into place first (better output, efficiency) and all those small snags and details come more slowly. Don't forget, Mercedes had these small things failing too in '14 and '15.

Personally, I think this just taking things out of thin air, in other words over-analyzing with the power of hindsight. Did Anderson start to question Mercedes reliability when Bottas engine blew? Or last year, when Hamilton was hit with quite frankly problems beyond belief in qualifying, not just once, or twice, but multiple times and on top of that, an engine failure on what was pretty much a brand new engine at the time. And Mercedes didn't have that "structural" re-organization that Ferrari went through.

Sometimes, stupid, insignificant things fail. Call it murphy's law. It doesn't always mean that one team has superior monitoring tools or whatever, especially on a spark plug. If you ask me, my personal opinion is that both Ferrari and Mercedes are playing with oil burning which is most probably 'dirtying-up' the spark plugs, which is why they are changing them on a regular basis just to be on the safe side.

Worst of all - the part that failed twice in a row is not an in-house part, it's a supplied part. So yes, maybe Ferrari is responsible for not adequately testing these parts themselves (maybe they don't have the tools to and rely on their supplier etc)... but Vettel did say in regards to the spark-plug, that it wasn't a new part but one that was run before. And Mercedes said something post race that they noticed symptoms of a problem soon enough that enabled them to change it in time.

[Manoah2u]

I agree with Anderson on this. I think i said it in the Ferrari PU forum as well, these snags are part of building a team and putting systems in place. Ferrari has had a big re-organisation the past few years, just like Mercedes had a couple of years ago. When the right team is in place the major parts fall into place first (better output, efficiency) and all those small snags and details come more slowly. Don't forget, Mercedes had these small things failing too in '14 and '15.

The other worry is that Mercedes are on the back foot due to them losing an integral part of their car (trick suspension). It has taken them (if they actually have) and Reb Bull all season to find a work around. Next season they will have designed a car from the ground up without it as well are Red Bull being in the march. Will Ferrari get this good a chance again?

Well, for next year... so many questions, so many possibilities. The margins are quite small, it's all about who will take the most risk on how much to re-design the package. In 14-16 Mercedes were so far ahead, they could do an extended evo version each year, finetuning. Ferrari had to take some sharp turns, which not always worked out well. This year it looks closer within the three top teams. I could see Mercedes doing an evo again and Ferrari doing one of their kamikaze turns.

that would be very unwise from Ferrari. Their current chassis is very, very good and is doing fantastic on a huge variety of tracks. I think Ferrari's lack of results is not at all down to the car itself, but rather a combination of internal pressure on the team which greatly comes from lack of patience and being too 'hotheaded' about things, including stupid moves like that of Vettel in Baku, he would have won that GP if he didn't play bumpercars, and then things like spark plugs and similar 'silly problems' that are probably avoidable and i personally blame on internal stress and pressure within the team. Additionally, the Ferrari engine probably is very close now to Mercedes' engine, but still undoubtedly lacks some compared to Mercedes at the very least during Qually.

Also, i might be mistaken here, but Mercedes is supplying Force India AND Williams with 2017-spec engines, whilst Ferrari, if i am correct, ONLY is supplying HAAS with 2017 spec engines and Sauber with old 2016 ones.
That means Mercedes gets much more feedback from their 'current' spec engine, where Ferrari only gets that from a team which is still developing after being non-existant 2 years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if that does to a certain degree influence their 'range' of intel on their engine, resulting in Ferrari themselves getting DNF's and DNS-es instead of their 'customers' helping them track potential issues. You could see it as Mercedes gets a free day of testing every race weekend compared to Ferrari because they have 2 customers with updated engines and Ferrari only 1.

Yet despite all of that, Vettel is still in range of the WDC title. Mercedes has got that WCC in the bag without any doubt. I also wonder on Kimi, he's doing far from bad to be honest but then he neither is 'up there' with Vettel and Hamilton in spite of how blazingly fast and cunning he was in for example 2007 even if that's 10 years ago by now.

Ferrari can be very proud on their achievements this year, and build on that for next year, no matter the outcome.
I hope they won't be their 'usual' impatient selves and have a redesigned car next year and see them make the same mistakes Mclaren has been making for years on row.

[Manoah2u]

My ideal scenario for the upcoming 4 races

AUSTIN GP:

Sebastian Vettel : 1st
Lewis Hamilton : DNF (engine failure)

Mexico GP:

Sebastian Vettel : 1st
Lewis Hamilton : 2nd

Brazil GP:

Max Verstappen : 1st
Sebastian Vettel : 2nd
Lewis Hamilton : DNF (crash)

Abu Dhabi GP:

Max Verstappen : 1st

and during the race,
Vettel and Hamilton fight for 2nd.

we get 2 times a safety car.

and in the final 15 laps we see either Lewis or Vettel in front, and either of them is within DRS range.

I'm really open for whoever wins in that scenario. On one side i'd really like to see Lewis win one more,
as i'd pick my Lewis as my favourite driver over Vettel. But that being said, i think it would be seriously
interesting to see Vettel take the championship in the end and thus a Ferrari bags it.

It would usher in a 'return' in winning the championship - despite not winning the constructors,
and break Mercedes' dominance - again even though they won the constructors.
It would also mean Lewis will get to think deeper about his commitment to Mercedes.
and it would make it surely a 3-way fight for the next season with Mercedes, Ferrari and RedBull all on par.

Ferrari rejuvenated, Mercedes needing to repack, and RedBull on warpath with their young guns.

And it would probably avoid a total collapse at Ferrari again for next year as i truly fear/expect that if Ferrari
fails to have Vettel bag the WDC, then Arrivabene gets replaced and we see more replacements which would
tumble Ferrari right back to where they were last year or the year before, and thus, no progress at all.

So even though i prefer Lewis to win, i'm really open for Vettel to grab the title. Despite my dislike for Vettel's persona,
i am very much pro fighters, underdogs, and genuine competition.

Extra for the above scenario is that if all goes well, then Verstappen beats Raikkonen in the WDC standings.

i would also like to see Sainz beat Ocon in points, and Sainz (paired with Hulk) beat both Haas and Toro Rosso in the WCC standings.
Williams probably will be too big to chew up at this point.

[f1316]

Hamilton’s got it sewn up, but for the sake of clutching at straws, a solitary DNF for Lewis at COTA could still be enough to make it interesting.

So you then leave the US with Lewis 34 points ahead (and FYI we have to assume Seb wins all the races here(

The talk is that Mercedes aren’t super confident about Mexico because it’s max downforce - you then have the possibility that both RBs and Ferrari’s finish ahead of him. That makes the gap 19.

Now Ferrari need a one-two in both remaining races of the championship to take it.

Can’t see any of that happening but would be fun if even the first two happen and we end up with a fight to the wire!

[TAG]

So you then leave the US with Lewis 34 points ahead (and FYI we have to assume Seb wins all the races here

With a wet COTA predicted this Sunday, the chances of Seb winning are slim to none.

[f1316]

So you then leave the US with Lewis 34 points ahead (and FYI we have to assume Seb wins all the races here

With a wet COTA predicted this Sunday, the chances of Seb winning are slim to none.

Hmmmm, don’t know if I completely agree.

You may end up being right, but the one opportunity we’ve had to see these cars in the wet was Monza and whilst the Ferrari was very slow on full wets in Q3, it looked strong in Q2 on inters - seemingly getting them up to temp quickly.

I don’t know if it’s enough to be as definitive as you are being but do agree that his best chance is if it’s the opposite end of the spectrum and actually quite hot.

[NathanOlder]

What ferrari need is a better driver in their 2nd car. Having Kimi now is seriously hurting vettels chances now.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

What ferrari need is a better driver in their 2nd car. Having Kimi now is seriously hurting vettels chances now.

It's a double edged sword. Having a driver stronger than kimi would mean, that driver would also be in the fight for championship. That means, taking points off Vettel. That means Vettel would be in much weaker position than he is now.

[NathanOlder]

But if Vettel is as good as we are led to believe, then he would be fine with a Perez, Hulkenberg, Grosjean next to him. But Seb loves his Kimi, so now he has little help from his team mate. If the stories were true about Vettel having a veto on his team mate (im not saying its true, just mentioning the rumours) then that only really helps when he's in a dominant car like his Red Bull was.

Bottas has been half decent this season and now Lewis has the measure of him, Lewis now has a decent driver as back up. Seb has a Massa type driver backing him up. So its all down to Vettel now. The pressure is well and truely on, he MUST deliver 4 times in a row. Something he hasn't done since 2013.

He hasn't won back to back since 2013 either. So asking him to do it now when the pressure is higher than it has been since 2012, i have him down as no chance.

[ringo]

Vettel needs a head and shoulders dominant car if he is to win back to back. and he needs pole positions too.
All i know is Max and Dan will be up his arse for the remaining races as the redbull is getting better and better.
Its quite possible they will be very strong at COTA and Brazil. I can see another redbull win in the next 4 races, possibly in Brazil.
If Lewis wins 2 more its over right?

[Phil]

Lewis needs 1 win and one 5th, if Vettel drives at his best.

Basically Hamilton needs to...

extend his gap by 16 points at Cota...

Or

Keep his point gap by Mexico with a tolerance of 9 points...

...to secure the WDC.