Statistical Analysis of F1 Competition

[Moxie]

I tried to post this information in an earlier thread "Competition Analysis," but my inexperience in setting up a web-site resulted in readers of the forum not being able to access the charts I had intended to show.

https://sites.google.com/site/f1supernerd/documents

The analysis studies the F1 teams and drivers with respect to their finishing order in the WCC and WDC respectively. The percentage of races won by the #1 team/driver was directly compared to the same for teams/drivers for places 2-10 for the respective championships. For clarity, only places 1-5 are shown on the graphs. In the case for team podium percentage the possible podiums for each team was set at two per race. There were races in the 1970's in which teams ran more than two cars. These extra cars were all uncompetitive, and for simplification of they were not factored into the podium percentage equation.

I sure hope this works this time. Please tell me if it works.

[SectorOne]

You could have just ticked a few boxes and you would have been good to go with the previous links

From what i can gather from the graphs it basically say domination is more frequent as the years go by.

[hollus]

Nice.
I wonder how much of the trends is simply due to reliability. If only 50% of the cars finish the race, there is a fair chance that the car starting 3rd or 4th will simply inherit the win.
When did the current trend to almost bullet-proof reliability start?

[Moxie]

Nice.
I wonder how much of the trends is simply due to reliability. If only 50% of the cars finish the race, there is a fair chance that the car starting 3rd or 4th will simply inherit the win.
When did the current trend to almost bullet-proof reliability start?

Good question. I haven't looked at that yet, but I will.

[Moxie]

You could have just ticked a few boxes and you would have been good to go with the previous links

From what i can gather from the graphs it basically say domination is more frequent as the years go by.

HA HA!!!! I did it. So I guess an old dog can learn a new trick or two. I think i shall break into song. "Its alright, Its okay. doesn't really matter what you do or say..."

Anyway here are the charts posted to the forum. As you can see, the dominance of one team does seem to increase over time. So much so that in 2014 it is expected that the WCC winning team will win 62% of the races, as opposed to 42% in 1974. Furthermore it also can be predicted that the second place team will win the rest of the races.

[SectorOne]

Think you posted them as images mate. Here´s a quick list,

1. go to your google docs documents, click on one.
2. click on share
3. click on advanced bottom right corner of the window that popped up.
4. Under "who has access" click on "change"
5. Choose "On - Anyone with the link"
6. select Access: "Can view"
7. Click save then take the link shown up top and post here.


Edit: took your links without URL tags and they still don´t work. However follow my steps and it should work.

here´s a link to one of my graphs,
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

You should be able to view but not edit.

[Moxie]

Here are links directly to the charts.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

I feel so foolish, what i thought would be fodder for a good discussion has turned into an embarrassing lesson, that has completely detracted from any discussion of the data or its implications to F1. My apologies to everyone.

[Blanchimont]

Great work! I really like these kind of charts... =D>

Could you maybe add, the average/median numbers and the standard deviation for the total time range and each decade?
I think that would give an even better picture of what's going on. E.g., if you look at the driver #1 winning percentage, for the last ten years values between 73 and 25 % can be found. The linear trend might not tell the whole story.

[Stradivarius]

I have a strong feeling that hollus is right about reliability playing a major role here, or to be more precise, the trouble free finishing rate. Those 3 races so far this season that Mercedes didn't win were not exactly trouble free for them. ERS/brake problems in Canada, engine fire during qualifying in Hungary and collision resulting in puncture and front wing damage at Spa. The latter was caused by the drivers, so that is why reliability is not the best description. The point is that something extraordinary needs to happen to both Hamilton and Rosberg to prevent Mercedes from winning the races this year. In 1970, there was nothing extraordinary about the fastest cars retiring from several races during the season.

I think there is a mistake in the graphs presented. (Not to take anything away from Moxie, who did an excellent job presenting this interesting information.) Team Winning Percentage and Team Podium Percentage seem to be the same, and they both seem to show Team Podium Percentage, i.e. Team Winning Percentage is missing. The highest team winning percentage ever is that of McLaren in 1988, where they won 15 out of 16 races, i.e. 94%. Ferrari were at 88% in 2002 and 83% in 2004 as well, which would have been very unlikely to happen with the retirement rate of 1970. It could be interesting to study the correlation between the graphs here and the retirement rate.

[Moxie]

I think there is a mistake in the graphs presented. (Not to take anything away from Moxie, who did an excellent job presenting this interesting information.) Team Winning Percentage and Team Podium Percentage seem to be the same, and they both seem to show Team Podium Percentage, i.e. Team Winning Percentage is missing.

The post with the direct links to the charts is now fixed. The chart for Team Winning Percentage now shows the correct chart.

I am still working on the Data for DNF's and I don't want to assume I know what the data will tell us. However, I believe it is obvious to all of us that have watched F1 for the past 30 years, that reliability has increased over the same time frame. It takes me back to a conversation in another thread, about how current F1 engineering doesn't really push the limits. I believe the quote was "When you push the limits, things go POP!

One of the reasons used to enjoy about F1 was that these guys were trying radically new designs all the time; from six wheeled cars to cars with two chassis...and the list goes on. A big problem about contemporary F1 is that it all but discourages extreme engineering with reliability rules, and strictly dictated rules, that literally prevent development.

[Stradivarius]

I am not sure where to draw the line between extreme engineering and the modern engineering in formula 1. Is it more extreme to build a car with 6 wheels than it is to build a diffuser enhanced by exhaust flow which is generated even off-throttle with special engine maps? In my opinion they are both examples of innovative engineering, but I can't say that one is more extreme than the other. I could also mention things like double DRS, the F-duct, the double diffuser, flexible body work and mass dampers, which are all examples of innovative engineering from the past decade. I don't really see that this has changed so much since the 6 wheeled cars. Things actually seem to be very much the same in the respect that something is invented and tried and shortly after it is banned.

[Moxie]

Nice.
I wonder how much of the trends is simply due to reliability. If only 50% of the cars finish the race, there is a fair chance that the car starting 3rd or 4th will simply inherit the win.
When did the current trend to almost bullet-proof reliability start?

Here you go. I have included charts for the average DNF% for the top five teams for 1974-1997 and 1974-1998. This is where the linear regression trend line changes from positive to negative.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

[hollus]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

Awesome. So there is a flat-ish trend to 1993 and a very decent linear trend from there on, with overlap in 1994-1997. Once can actually see the change of rules in 1994! Something changed in 1992-1995 in the way the cars are made. Can anybody point at a key technology triggering it? The demise of the minnows, maybe?

Anyways, it would be great if you could now split your initial graphs in pre-199x and post 199x trends.

[Blanchimont]

Those who want to see some more statistics on F1: http://cliptheapex.com/forums/statistics-and-analysis/

There is found this graph on reliability, the difference bewteen completed laps and racing laps is the influence of the safety car:


from: http://cliptheapex.com/threads/beyond-t ... ysis.6462/

[Moxie]

Average of Top Five Teams DNF % split 1974-1993 and 1994-2013

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing