2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

For ease of use, there is one thread per grand prix where you can discuss everything during that specific GP weekend. You can find these threads here.
Locked
Edax
47
Joined: 08 Apr 2014, 22:47

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Andres125sx wrote:
Edax wrote: If you look at the race they have gained since australia, but they are still 4 seconds of the leader and close to a second of their nearest rivals, judged by the fastest laps produced by the teams.
1 Mercedes 1’42.062 43
2 Ferrari 1.586 46
3 Sauber-Ferrari 1.840 45
4 Williams-Mercedes 1.928 40
5 Red Bull-Renault 2.452 41
6 Toro Rosso-Renault 2.517 42
7 Lotus-Mercedes 2.750 36
8 Force India-Mercedes 2.760 46
9 McLaren-Honda 3.994 38
source: f1fanatic
If you look at the race you know thats not true... how could they overtake FI and catch RBR being one second slower?

That fast laps are not a good reference since both McL retired before the last stint, and its in the last stint when fast laps are done becase of the lighter car
Well the numbers are taken straight from the F1 website, you're welcome to check.
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2015/03/29/m ... t-ferrari/

Of course the numbers are subject to interpretation. The way I see it Button set his fastest lap in clean air with softs, after his last pitstop. So that is likely about as fast as the car could go. The conditions where the others set the lap differ a bit, but that does not matter since Button had no obvious disadvantage except a few kilos of fuel. In the data I also included the lap number. For most teams the difference would not be more than 5-10 kg's. So in ideal conditions I think a difference of .8 to 1 for most midfield teams is realistic.

As for your comment about catching the others. One thing is that they seem to maintain the pace better throughout the stint and suffer less dropoff. If you look at individual stints then they loose time at the start of the stint and gain it back at the end. Looking at the fastest lap only of course does not acknowledge that so that explains why Mclaren was gaining, but mainly at the end of their stints.

I don't know whether that is because of the way the Mclaren handles the tires or the fact that the other teams have been abusing the tires more running in dirty air and fighting each other. In any way I do not expect tire degradation to be such a big factor in the coming races, so where they stand at the beginning of the stint is more representative of their current position.

Also consider that both FI divers were involved in collisions and got 10 second penalties plus hulkenberg suffered from a failed two stop strategy. Add to that the brake problems and damage of the RBR team.

The way I see it Mclaren has made a step forwards since Australia, but even under the most favorable circumstances (clean run, other teams having problems) they haven't really been able to bring the fight to the midfield. Moreover in chasing the midfield they already pushed their equipment too far.

They still have a long way to go. And for the record I do hope they get there. It would be a terrible waste for F1 if they went the Brabham/Yamaha way.

Moose
52
Joined: 03 Oct 2014, 19:41

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Judging based on fastest lap when they weren't present at the end of the race, when all the fastest laps were being set is a pretty terrible way of judging their performance.

Earnard Beccelstone
0
Joined: 15 Feb 2010, 02:49

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Edax wrote: If you look at the race they have gained since australia, but they are still 4 seconds of the leader and close to a second of their nearest rivals, judged by the fastest laps produced by the teams.
1 Mercedes 1’42.062 43
2 Ferrari 1.586 46
3 Sauber-Ferrari 1.840 45
4 Williams-Mercedes 1.928 40
5 Red Bull-Renault 2.452 41
6 Toro Rosso-Renault 2.517 42
7 Lotus-Mercedes 2.750 36
8 Force India-Mercedes 2.760 46
9 McLaren-Honda 3.994 38
source: f1fanatic


What really surprises me is the best lap time of the Sauber. Only 2 1/2 tenths slower than Ferrari and a 1 tenth better than Williams.

The other surprising thing is the slowness of the Lotus and Force India cars. 2.75/76 seconds behind Mercedes and 8 tenths behind Williams.

User avatar
WaikeCU
14
Joined: 14 May 2014, 00:03

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Imagine if Ericsson didn't bottled it, he would have had a chance to end in the top 6 in the race.

User avatar
Andres125sx
166
Joined: 13 Aug 2013, 10:15
Location: Madrid, Spain

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Earnard Beccelstone wrote:
Edax wrote: If you look at the race they have gained since australia, but they are still 4 seconds of the leader and close to a second of their nearest rivals, judged by the fastest laps produced by the teams.
1 Mercedes 1’42.062 43
2 Ferrari 1.586 46
3 Sauber-Ferrari 1.840 45
4 Williams-Mercedes 1.928 40
5 Red Bull-Renault 2.452 41
6 Toro Rosso-Renault 2.517 42
7 Lotus-Mercedes 2.750 36
8 Force India-Mercedes 2.760 46
9 McLaren-Honda 3.994 38
source: f1fanatic


What really surprises me is the best lap time of the Sauber. Only 2 1/2 tenths slower than Ferrari and a 1 tenth better than Williams.

The other surprising thing is the slowness of the Lotus and Force India cars. 2.75/76 seconds behind Mercedes and 8 tenths behind Williams.
That shows how useless fast laps are on sundays. Strategy play a huge role here, it´s not the same a 3 stop strategy that allow you to push hard, than a 2 stopper like Sainz did with a final stint very long when you need to take care of your tires

You just need to see that fast lap more than a second slower for McLaren compared to FI to realice how useless that data is.... at least if you watched the race

User avatar
Phil
66
Joined: 25 Sep 2012, 16:22
Contact:

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Moose wrote:
Phil wrote:Note Hamiltons second stint on the prime tyre. 20 laps. Note the stint on option tyres. 14 laps. He couldn't do more as at that point, on either tyre, his times were crumbling at the end of them. Now, if Mercedes hadn't pitted on lap 4 under the safety car, and if we assume they could have made it to lap 12, they still had another 44 laps to go. So, we're looking at a OPO stint - 12 laps option first, then perhaps 20-24 laps which brings us to lap 32-36 and... another 16-20 laps on the option tyre? Not sure that would have worked out. At best, it would be right at the limit. Personally, I don't think the Mercedes had the ability to do 20 laps of option tyres on the last stint. 16 might be cutting it and highly depends if he would have managed 24 laps on the prime tyre. The drop off at the end was always immense.
No, not OPO, OPOO - 14,17,13,12. That's the same number of pit stops, but running options for much more of the race, and in doing so saving 22 seconds.

While the first stint of 14 laps on options looks long (exactly as long as the one he did in the race, and had eaten all his tires), it actually probably would have been fine, due to a couple of laps under the SC, making this in reality a 12 lap stint.
Interesting... I hadn't thought about that one. Arguably, even if they couldn't stretch it to 14, 12 laps on the opening stint, they could probably edge it on a OPOO. But of course that only would have worked if they had stayed out.

I think the reason why they didn't do it (although attempting what you suggest with one of their cars would seem to be a no-brainer in hindsight) is because they lacked enough option tyres in good shape to feel confident enough about doing it. In regards to Vettel and winning the race; this would only also work if Vettel was running at full pace - which I'm not sure he did. When you are challenging a 2-stopper on a 3-stopper strategy, you are revealing your strategy pretty early as you are pitting earlier. Vettel/Ferrari probably could have reacted to it and perhaps could have changed onto a 3-stop in time as well, upping their pace.

BTW: this race actually sums up what I posted a long time ago in the pre-season topic... in that the tyres once again can play a significant role in how the race turns out. This race just proves it. Yes, it was an anomaly temperature wise, but if the Mercedes for whatever reasons falls behind on tyre deg, it could make things a lot closer between teams.



Anyway - as much fun as this discussion is, I think what it shows is a certain level of shock and * :wtf: * given that this was the first time for a loooooooooooong time that we've seen anyone beat a Mercedes purely on pace. Even as a Lewis/Mercedes supporter, the race was fantastic and I wouldn't mind to see a closer fight between teams, not just team-mates. =D>
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

User avatar
Vasconia
6
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:45
Location: Basque Country

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

WaikeCU wrote:Imagine if Ericsson didn't bottled it, he would have had a chance to end in the top 6 in the race.
He was doing a nice job until this stupid mistake. He cant make those mistakes if he wants to gain a minium respect.

About Sainz performance in q1, it was impressive he could have qualified in a very high position but this strategy in Q2 was not good.

Both TR drivers are very good under rain coinditions so I hope it will rain in China. [-o<

Manoah2u
61
Joined: 24 Feb 2013, 14:07

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Vasconia wrote:
WaikeCU wrote:Imagine if Ericsson didn't bottled it, he would have had a chance to end in the top 6 in the race.
He was doing a nice job until this stupid mistake. He cant make those mistakes if he wants to gain a minium respect.
indeed. I have a feeling this wasn't well appreciated by the team. it was such an embarassment. The braking/ going wide error itself was very clumsy, but to have it slide into the gravel like that was beyond that. It was especially bad because it cost sauber very important points.

I really enjoyed Peter Sauber saying "S.H.I.T." on public TV :mrgreen: :lol:
he really don't like this contract affair with "that Dutchman" and probably the same with the non-finished issue with Sutil.

It did surprise me a bit because I can't remember Peter being an 'annoyable' / 'irritatable' person. He seemed quite full of irritation, which i can't ever remember having happened to him - then again, i don't know the man personally and my memory could serve me wrong.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"

User avatar
Vasconia
6
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:45
Location: Basque Country

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

I have the same feeling, I have always considere a very easy going man but we could be wrong.

It was a pity because it seems that Sauber has a good car, or at least a very good engine, Enzo would be proud of this engine.

I think they would do a much better job in China.

User avatar
WaikeCU
14
Joined: 14 May 2014, 00:03

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Manoah2u wrote:
Vasconia wrote:
WaikeCU wrote:Imagine if Ericsson didn't bottled it, he would have had a chance to end in the top 6 in the race.
He was doing a nice job until this stupid mistake. He cant make those mistakes if he wants to gain a minium respect.
indeed. I have a feeling this wasn't well appreciated by the team. it was such an embarassment. The braking/ going wide error itself was very clumsy, but to have it slide into the gravel like that was beyond that. It was especially bad because it cost sauber very important points.

I really enjoyed Peter Sauber saying "S.H.I.T." on public TV :mrgreen: :lol:
he really don't like this contract affair with "that Dutchman" and probably the same with the non-finished issue with Sutil.

It did surprise me a bit because I can't remember Peter being an 'annoyable' / 'irritatable' person. He seemed quite full of irritation, which i can't ever remember having happened to him - then again, i don't know the man personally and my memory could serve me wrong.
I still think VdG is a better racer than Ericsson or Nasr, but hey! It's a money issue. I think it's very important to make the most of it considering RB, Williams and Mclaren aren't up to speed yet. I think those teams have a relative faster development speed. So losing out in Malaysia must have hurt them badly. Missed opportunities for them!

User avatar
GPR-A duplicate2
64
Joined: 07 Aug 2014, 09:00

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

Chene_Mostert wrote: ?? Lot of it's and could have's,
were exactly was Merc 1sec per lap faster on the options? Not in the first 5 laps?
Merc fans need to make peace with it, Ferrari now has the pace to push Merc out of their comfort zone.. No more lift and coast, looking after tyres for them. 2014 their PU advantage flattered them. Pre season testing already pointed to the Ferrari pace. Had they qualified ahead of Massa in Aus Merc would also have had a real challenge.
So better get ready for more of the same in Shanghai!
And where was that Ferrari pace in Melbourne exactly?
Do you pay attention that, Merc could do 3 stops to Ferrari's 2 stops and still be just 10 seconds behind, at a circuit which takes around 27 seconds for a good stop?
In 63 deg C, which is way more than average temperature for races in this calendar, if the Ferrari is just managing to be on optimum temperature window, do you imagine the struggle to put heat in ambient and less than ambient temperatures (<= 40 deg C)?
If James Allison is saying, they can't repeat the same performance, how do you know they can beat the Mercs?
Ferrari is on right course, that is for sure. But beating Mercs on Merit? Not there yet.

PistoniRoventi
0
Joined: 24 Feb 2015, 16:23

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

GPR-A wrote:
Chene_Mostert wrote: ?? Lot of it's and could have's,
were exactly was Merc 1sec per lap faster on the options? Not in the first 5 laps?
Merc fans need to make peace with it, Ferrari now has the pace to push Merc out of their comfort zone.. No more lift and coast, looking after tyres for them. 2014 their PU advantage flattered them. Pre season testing already pointed to the Ferrari pace. Had they qualified ahead of Massa in Aus Merc would also have had a real challenge.
So better get ready for more of the same in Shanghai!
And where was that Ferrari pace in Melbourne exactly?
Do you pay attention that, Merc could do 3 stops to Ferrari's 2 stops and still be just 10 seconds behind, at a circuit which takes around 27 seconds for a good stop?
In 63 deg C, which is way more than average temperature for races in this calendar, if the Ferrari is just managing to be on optimum temperature window, do you imagine the struggle to put heat in ambient and less than ambient temperatures (<= 40 deg C)?
If James Allison is saying, they can't repeat the same performance, how do you know they can beat the Mercs?
Ferrari is on right course, that is for sure. But beating Mercs on Merit? Not there yet.
Actually, it looks like you didn't pay attention. Merc made one of their stops under safety car, effectively a ZERO (0) seconds pit stop. They have been held up by traffic soon after the restart, and when Ham managed to get himself to second position, Vettel was 10 seconds ahead. So tell me again, how many second did Ham finished behind?
Allison saying that they can't repeat the same performance make me thing of what Ferrari has been saying all winter... I think i don't need to continue, do i?

User avatar
GPR-A duplicate2
64
Joined: 07 Aug 2014, 09:00

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

PistoniRoventi wrote:
GPR-A wrote:
Chene_Mostert wrote: ?? Lot of it's and could have's,
were exactly was Merc 1sec per lap faster on the options? Not in the first 5 laps?
Merc fans need to make peace with it, Ferrari now has the pace to push Merc out of their comfort zone.. No more lift and coast, looking after tyres for them. 2014 their PU advantage flattered them. Pre season testing already pointed to the Ferrari pace. Had they qualified ahead of Massa in Aus Merc would also have had a real challenge.
So better get ready for more of the same in Shanghai!
And where was that Ferrari pace in Melbourne exactly?
Do you pay attention that, Merc could do 3 stops to Ferrari's 2 stops and still be just 10 seconds behind, at a circuit which takes around 27 seconds for a good stop?
In 63 deg C, which is way more than average temperature for races in this calendar, if the Ferrari is just managing to be on optimum temperature window, do you imagine the struggle to put heat in ambient and less than ambient temperatures (<= 40 deg C)?
If James Allison is saying, they can't repeat the same performance, how do you know they can beat the Mercs?
Ferrari is on right course, that is for sure. But beating Mercs on Merit? Not there yet.
Actually, it looks like you didn't pay attention. Merc made one of their stops under safety car, effectively a ZERO (0) seconds pit stop. They have been held up by traffic soon after the restart, and when Ham managed to get himself to second position, Vettel was 10 seconds ahead. So tell me again, how many second did Ham finished behind?
Allison saying that they can't repeat the same performance make me thing of what Ferrari has been saying all winter... I think i don't need to continue, do i?
As a leader, when you pit under safety car and rejoin in traffic, you tend to lose more time than a normal PLANNED pit stop. In normal circumstances, you can gauge the time available with respect to traffic.
Please refer the first point. Where was the Ferrari pace in Australia? where they ended up 30 seconds behind Merc, where Hamilton said, he was just managing the gap to Nico and was responding to Nico whenever Nico came closer, which means there was more pace to create a distance of more than 30 seconds to Ferrari.

User avatar
Phil
66
Joined: 25 Sep 2012, 16:22
Contact:

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

James Allen has a very good summary:
http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/03/a ... -mercedes/

In reply to Moose regarding my earlier post;
What I forgot about was that Hamilton did do a stint on the option tyre - his 3rd stint. Let me requote myself:

Vettel: pitted on 17 and 37 (o17 / o20 / p19)
Hamilton: pitted on 4, 24, 38 (o4 / p20 / o14 / p18)
Rosberg: pitted on 4, 26, 41 (o4 / p22 / p15 / o15)

It lasted 14 laps.

Lets have a look in more detail:

Code: Select all

Lewis Stint 3 (Option)    Stint 4 (Medium)
25 2:04.540               39 2:03.237
26 1:44.017               40 1:43.161
27 1:44.293               41 1:44.565
28 1:43.976               42 1:43.450
29 1:44.469               43 1:43.467
30 1:44.201               44 1:43.216
31 1:44.320               45 1:43.125
32 1:44.298               46 1:43.861
33 1:44.301               47 1:43.385
34 1:44.487               48 1:43.898
35 1:45.545               49 1:43.798
36 1:45.340               50 1:43.671
37 1:45.612               51 1:43.941
38 P 1:49.322             52 1:44.185
What we might be seeing here is the natural progression of lighter car being quicker despite the harder tyre (prime) vs earlier on the option. Personally though I think with Lewis's setup or driving, it doesn't look that way. The option stint is pretty even throughout and averages around the 1:44.5 mark. It doesn't improve as the car gets lighter with every lap, in fact, it seems the drop-off in the tyres performance is more than the bonus of the car getting lighter. On the prime tyre, it isn't much different in stint 4 - average seems to be around 1:43.9. Interestingly, if we look at stint 2 (didn't bother to extract them, it's a lot of work) - the average there seems to be around 1:46.9.

So I conclude (all times are calculated without in-/out-lap and during pitstop and in the first stint, without the safety car influence):

Hamilton:
stint 2 (prime) - 20 laps: avg 1:46.921
stint 3 (option) - 14 laps: avg 1:44.572 (~2.5 seconds faster)
stint 4 (prime) - 18 laps: avg 1:43.987 (~0.6 second faster)

Rosberg:
stint 2 (prime) - 22 laps: avg 1:47.290 (bear in mind, he was longer in traffic)
stint 3 (prime) - 15 laps: avg 1:44.627 (~2.5 seconds faster)
stint 4 (option) - 15 laps: avg 1:43.382 (~1.3 seconds faster)

Vettel:
stint 2 (option) - 20 laps: avg 1:45.226
stint 3 (prime) - 19 laps: avg 1:44.306 (~1.2 seconds faster)


So with all the data present; I think Lewis staying out and doing a OPOO would not have been possible, because the first stint would never have survived till lap 14, even with the safety car. Considering the weight of the car, I think lap 10 would have been it, which is why Mercedes went ahead and pitted and took that "free" pitstop (cost with traffic ~11 seconds). Note the drop off on Hamiltons stint 3 under option (data further up) - he effectively starts losing ~1 second per lap at the end and has 4 laps with the in-lap. So technically, his tyres weren't good for the 14 laps he did, but ~10 laps on a much lighter car. Doing the same on stint 1 with a heavier car and used prime tyres from qualifying...? Nope. Don't think so.

What the data also shows however is that the pace on both Mercedes wasn't that bad. They were generally quicker than Vettel - on the Mercedes 3rd stint on, they were on average ~0.7 seconds faster than Vettel (over ~15 laps) and on the last stint ~0.3 second (Hamilton) or ~1 second (Rosberg). Although that is assuming Vettel was running flat out, which I personally don't think he was. Mercedes was also at a disadvantage because they had ~11 seconds to close after they pitted under the safety car and got into traffic.

In that sense, we are comparing Mercedes on a ~2.5 stop strategy vs. Vettel on a 2.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

Harsha
12
Joined: 01 Dec 2012, 14:35

Re: 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

Post

GPR-A wrote: Please refer the first point. Where was the Ferrari pace in Australia? where they ended up 30 seconds behind Merc, where Hamilton said, he was just managing the gap to Nico and was responding to Nico whenever Nico came closer, which means there was more pace to create a distance of more than 30 seconds to Ferrari.
I know Merc still has pace in their hand in Australia but how can you say Sebastian was pushing when he was released from Massa. The gap is less than what it seemed in Australia which is why when Merc messed up themselves Ferrari was able to take advantage by playing it to their strengths.

Locked