2016 Monaco Grand Prix - Monte Carlo, Thu 26 – Sun 29 May

[Nuvolari]

The FOM website says the track is 3 m shorter from 2014. I reckon we'll get close to the 1:13.5 but won't beat it.

The pace advantage of the Ultra Soft to Super Soft was (I think) in the 0.5-0.8s range from pre-season testing, but that was different track characteristics to Monaco.

If we use Sochi as a benchmark for pace increase due to car developments, 2015 Pole was 1:37.1 and 2016 Pole was 1:35.4... a 1.7 second improvement! Of course Sochi is 5.853 km long vs Monaco 3.337 km so the increase due to car developments will be less. Monaco distance is 57% of Sochi, so lap time due to car development, likely ~1s. Car development+Tyre advantage=1.5-1.8s lap time gain...so may be they'll just beat the all time record after all?!?

[dren]

It'll be a Hamilton procession until he dives for tires late during a safety car lap and somehow ends up in third, baffling himself as to why he didn't win.

Mclaren will get a podium if the Honda lump doesn't --- its britches.

[Webber2011]

Vettel better be careful here.

If he throws all his toys out of the pram again they might end up in the harbour !

[mclaren111]

Hope for Alonso podium and if not 5th [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o<

[StrikeForceF1]

I like the race but used to enjoy it more.

What ruins it these days is how the front runners lap to a delta to preserve tyres - in my opinion it's a particular issue here because it removes much of the danger of ending up in the wall.

We always knew there wasn't much chance of overtaking, but when fuel strategies are involved and you have to push on every lap to make or close a gap, the margins to the walls are much finer, skill and spectacle greater.

I watched the 2006 race again the other day and it was breathtaking to see Alonso and Raikonnen going through the swimming pool, a few feet apart, flat out. They were running just as close in, say, 2013, but it was dull because they weren't pushing at all.

Thats what kills monaco these days..its race to a delta...Boooorrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiinggggggggg...I still remember the 1999 race with Hakinen and Coulthard 1-2 or 1-3 can't remember exactly with Michael and Eddie 2-3 or 2-4 and they chased the Mclarens down and I think Hakinen made a mistake...Thats what got me hooked on F1....not to mention the qualifying of the 2000's with Mika and Michael dueling it out...what a pleasure to watch

[StrikeForceF1]

That was completely tyre dependent - Ferrari were fine (if not quite as good as Mercedes) in S3 up until qualifying.

So long as they have the tyres in the right temperature range - and they're better the softer the tyre - they'll be fine; I think they'll be with the front running pace.

Up until Q? ...thats when it matters no?
Ferrari was slower in sector 3 to Redbull,Mercedes and Mclaren...tyre wise Ferrari has problems on a smooth track whit tyre temps....Monaco is the smootest of all according to Pirelli.

They did some setup changes which basically compromised their pace in Q. That doesn't mean that they will be beaten by McLaren in Monaco. That's ridiculous.

Thank You... I was laughing when I read the article on what Boullier said...

[StrikeForceF1]

They did some setup changes which basically compromised their pace in Q. That doesn't mean that they will be beaten by McLaren in Monaco. That's ridiculous.

I think its quite clear Mclaren has better chassis than Ferrari but i to dont think Mclaren will beat them in Monaco because even there 80bhp deficit means something.
But it will be closer than usual.
Ricciardo will win.

please point out to me where its quite clear...
its pretty funny watching team principals spew out nonsense and the masses soaking it all up and regurgitating it like its fact.
Red bull and Mclaren being 2 of the teams with the biggest BS factors in their press releases.

Again Thank You

[Nuvolari]

The pace advantage of the Ultra Soft to Super Soft was (I think) in the 0.5-0.8s range from pre-season testing, but that was different track characteristics to Monaco.

If we use Sochi as a benchmark for pace increase due to car developments, 2015 Pole was 1:37.1 and 2016 Pole was 1:35.4... a 1.7 second improvement! Of course Sochi is 5.853 km long vs Monaco 3.337 km so the increase due to car developments will be less. Monaco distance is 57% of Sochi, so lap time due to car development, likely ~1s. Car development+Tyre advantage=1.5-1.8s lap time gain...so may be they'll just beat the all time record after all?!?

Based on the above assumptions, I did some back of the envelope calcs and here are my predictions for Monaco qualifying:

Mercedes: 1:13.2 - 1:13.4
Red Bull: 1:13.5 - 1:13.7 (PU upgrade lap time gain 0.2-0.3s included)
Ferrari: 1:14.0 - 1:14.2
McLaren: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Force India: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Torro Rosso: 1:15.3 - 1:15.5
Williams: 1:15.7 - 1:15.9

It will be very close between McLaren and Force India for Q3 spots. As much as I'd like it, there is no way McLaren are suddenly going to be fighting Ferrari.

[FrukostScones]

Weather update:

some say hot, some say warm, some say possible thunderstorms (rain on Monday )....

I say it will be bone dry and betwen 23-26Celsius.

The questions for the weekend:

Will we have a qualifying controversy?
Will it be hot enough for Ferrari domination???
Will HAM spear straight into the TecPro after an failed overtake attempt on ROS in the tunnel?
Will ROS have a DNF?
Will Grosjean swim to an Oliver Panis GP victory?
Will Kvyat be faster than Verstappen?
Will RIC be given his mile back?
Will the SC be so nice to give us US-SS-US?
Will the FINDIA's both crash out in Lap 1?

[Vasconia]

The pace advantage of the Ultra Soft to Super Soft was (I think) in the 0.5-0.8s range from pre-season testing, but that was different track characteristics to Monaco.

If we use Sochi as a benchmark for pace increase due to car developments, 2015 Pole was 1:37.1 and 2016 Pole was 1:35.4... a 1.7 second improvement! Of course Sochi is 5.853 km long vs Monaco 3.337 km so the increase due to car developments will be less. Monaco distance is 57% of Sochi, so lap time due to car development, likely ~1s. Car development+Tyre advantage=1.5-1.8s lap time gain...so may be they'll just beat the all time record after all?!?

Based on the above assumptions, I did some back of the envelope calcs and here are my predictions for Monaco qualifying:

Mercedes: 1:13.2 - 1:13.4
Red Bull: 1:13.5 - 1:13.7 (PU upgrade lap time gain 0.2-0.3s included)
Ferrari: 1:14.0 - 1:14.2
McLaren: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Force India: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Torro Rosso: 1:15.3 - 1:15.5
Williams: 1:15.7 - 1:15.9

It will be very close between McLaren and Force India for Q3 spots. As much as I'd like it, there is no way McLaren are suddenly going to be fighting Ferrari.

I dont see why FI should be ahead of ToroRosso which has a better chasis and both drivers who can deliver on this track.

[Nuvolari]

I dont see why FI should be ahead of ToroRosso which has a better chasis and both drivers who can deliver on this track.

I think while all the hype has been on Torro Rosso, you will find that Force India have built a good car, but don't have the results to show for it.

If you follow my method, compare 2015 vs 2016 Russian Qualifying data, FI improved 1.48s vs TR only 1.34s by their best qualifying driver. Also in Barcelona qualifying 2016, FI were only 0.1s slower than TR in Sector 3 which seems to be a benchmark for a good chassis. If you then follow through my calculations, FI will be slightly better than TR in Monaco, but I think it will be a close battle between TR/FI/McHonda.

I will revisit after qualifying to see if I got it right.

[giantfan10]

Using mclarens logic in reference to Monaco pace (spain as a benchmark) they qualified 4 spots behind where they qualified in spain 2015 . So do the math as to where they qualify this year

[godlameroso]

Rain is very hard to predict around Monaco, almost impossible, that said it's probably to be changing conditions. Dry qualifying I see Mercedes dipping into the 12's, Mclaren will do a high 13. Also the hottest race of the season thus far, the ultra soft may not be a good race tire.

[iotar__]

I dont see why FI should be ahead of ToroRosso which has a better chasis and both drivers who can deliver on this track.

Toro Rosso should be slightly quicker but last season it was Perez that delivered and not Toro Rosso drivers. Since he doesn't have PR BS machine behind him it might have gone generally unnoticed. For those who watch NBA, Red Bull's version would be: "Adams hit Green's leg with his crotch" aka brake testing .

[Sevach]

I'm going to be the contrarian and put a little doubt that the record will be broken.
I'm also doubting Mclaren has the 3rd best chassis, both Ferrari's will be infront of them on the grid.

Mercedes will still be unquestionably faster however.