Silly Season 2016/2017

[i70q7m7ghw]

Why is it so improbable? He wanted to race for them before but their driver line up was locked in, so he's been sitting at McLaren hoping they come up with a winner, or a winning seat becomes available. Merc don't need to buy him out, he can buy himself out. I doubt there would be a repeat of '07, and even if there was, Merc would still win the WCC as McLaren would have had they not had spygate.

Alonso went to McLaren because he wasn't able to join Mercedes, and he knew Ferrari weren't going to beat them any time soon. Now he CAN join Mercedes, and he probably knows McLaren aren't going to beat them any time soon.

It's between Alonso and a rookie IMO.

[ab_f1]

I don't know if F1 people are superstitious, but with Alonso 's luck even Merc could start under-performing .
TBH Bottas, Perez, Wherelin and Ocon seem to be the candidates and probably in that order.
Problem with Perez/Bottas is that they have young teammates at their respective teams and hence they are being counted upon.
With all the rule changes, they may be difficult to get hold of.

Also given Ron gave Jenson the new deal, he may also be tied to McLaren.

[Jolle]

Why is it so improbable? He wanted to race for them before but their driver line up was locked in, so he's been sitting at McLaren hoping they come up with a winner, or a winning seat becomes available. Merc don't need to buy him out, he can buy himself out. I doubt there would be a repeat of '07, and even if there was, Merc would still win the WCC as McLaren would have had they not had spygate.

Alonso went to McLaren because he wasn't able to join Mercedes, and he knew Ferrari weren't going to beat them any time soon. Now he CAN join Mercedes, and he probably knows McLaren aren't going to beat them any time soon.

It's between Alonso and a rookie IMO.

Alonso on track is still in the top three drivers at the moment but he comes with some corporate downsides. If things don't go his way he isn't very, how to put it... tactical. He pushes the team hard, but then goes beyond good teammenship.. Plus, with Hamilton under contract for 2017, there is no need to have a fast but volatile Fernando in the team.

The Mercedes team would much rather play it long term and safe, then go for short term succes and/or controversies. HAM is still under contract for 2017/18, so two years to find/form someone who can lead the team in 2019 and beyond. If Alonso isn't already past his prime, he will be by then. They need a driver like RIC, VES, OCO or VDN in the team by 2018 to make that happen, which means 2017 will be a bridge year, filled by a steady driver like BOT or an extra learning/developing year for WER.
ALO in the car is the fan wet dream, but from a teams perspective a silly move. It will be williams 1986 and mclaren 2007 all over again.

[NathanOlder]

Totally agree. Fill the seat for a year (id go for Jenson if it's possible) then line up Ocon or Wehrlein for 18 alongside Lewis. And for 2019 if they are still dominant they can have their pick from Max, Ric and Co as contracts will end.

[TAG]

I doubt we'll see the dominance end next year. The gaps in qualifying remained just as large in 2016 as they'd been since the engine regulations began. With the additional fuel and development, I think Red Bull have a chance to really bring it to Mercedes but the gap if any in their aero development won't make up for the fact that Mercedes just is a cut above on the engine front and will remain that way for years.

I suspect we'll see Mercedes winning 2/3rd of the races instead of 9/10ths. More than enough to have a 1-2 driver pairing and as long as Hamilton does what he does and their number two is regularly in the top five, it's as good as done.

I know the last thing some people want to see is what Hamilton can do with a dedicated number 2 driver.

This year, Hamilton's results with another driver coming in the points each race would have given Mercedes both championships comfortably.

We don't know what we don't know, but the likelihood of Mercedes maintaining the PU superiority is greater than any team developing a chassis that the PU can't compensate for.

[namao]

Alonso will not go to Mercedes. We must end that discussion.
Our hearts wants a Hamilton-Alonso line up but we all know that is not going to happen.

Bottas or Werhlein. Those are the real options.

[Manoah2u]

Alonso will not go to Mercedes. We must end that discussion.

based on what

[Facts Only]

I doubt Perez will be considered for long, mainly becuase it will severely damage FIF1 which will in turn hurt Merc twofold, 1) It will make things worse for Ocon (there chosen boy) if FIF1 are suggling, 2) FIF1 have big bills to pay a Merc HPP for PU's and gearboxes.

It will eiher be Werhlein if they consider him ready or a journeyman who will take a 1 year contract if not. Bottas maybe or long shot Button. I cant think of anyone else.

Maybe my F1 dreams will come true and they will bring in Kobayashi....

[FrukostScones]

2018 ALO and VET are real possibilities at Merc.

But 2017 ..., ALO would be fun, but I don't think it will happen.

[namao]

Alonso will not go to Mercedes. We must end that discussion.

based on what

Based on coherence, logic and common sense.

[TAG]

2018 ALO and VET are real possibilities at Merc.

I've heard that both of them demand number one status in their contracts, so something has to change for that to happen and the likelihood of either of them removing that clause is about as high as Mercedes allowing Hamilton to walk away.

[basti313]

2018 ALO and VET are real possibilities at Merc.

But 2017 ..., ALO would be fun, but I don't think it will happen.

Toto just said he wants a junior driver. That puts it back to Ocon and Wehrlein.

[Vasconia]

So far my hopes for Pastor in that Merc.

Hahaha, too good to be real.

It would be funny to see Sainz there and beating Hamilton while he thinks "those f*cking Spaniards".

But yes, knowing Toto and company they will take the easy way, aka Wehrlein.

[Vasconia]

The only real counter argument I can see is that - presuming they're still clearly the fastest car - an easy championship for Hamilton isn't really that great for their brand. If people just get bored, stop watching and/or desperately want you to lose, it's not great PR.

If they bring about Hamilton/Alonso II then people will love them for it and a close fight between more equally matched drivers (very Senna/Prost in terms of characteristics, if you ask me) could well boost the audience even if one car is dominant.

As I say though, don't think they'll take the chance even if Fernando is available.

If the 2017 Mercedes is as dominant as this season´s car it would be terrific for F1 and even Mercedes if Hamilton doesn´t face a serious rivalry in the team.

[Jolle]

The only real counter argument I can see is that - presuming they're still clearly the fastest car - an easy championship for Hamilton isn't really that great for their brand. If people just get bored, stop watching and/or desperately want you to lose, it's not great PR.

If they bring about Hamilton/Alonso II then people will love them for it and a close fight between more equally matched drivers (very Senna/Prost in terms of characteristics, if you ask me) could well boost the audience even if one car is dominant.

As I say though, don't think they'll take the chance even if Fernando is available.

If the 2017 Mercedes is as dominant as this season´s car it would be terrific for F1 and even Mercedes if Hamilton doesn´t face a serious rivalry in the team.

periods of dominance for more then three years have been common for F1 for years now. McLaren with 7 titles in 8 years, 5 years of Ferrari/Schumacher and 4,5 years of RedBull. For marketing an undisputed star isn't that bad, just think of it: cycling had its biggest days when Armstrong dominated (before we knew how), basketball was bigger then ever in the Jordan years and Doohan/Rossi/Marquez are wonderful for MotoGP. We all want a battle every race, but that doesn't sell products strangely enough.

I think, for Mercedes, Rosberg outperformed his expectations and they build a more drivable car then they thought was possible. If the car had to be more on edge, the gap was probably a bit bigger (and also, with the real limit being the tires, and in lesser extend the balls of the driver).

the pro's to get Alonso:
- epic possible battles with Hamilton
- a nice pairing to market
the cons:
- Alonso can be a risk then it comes to "radio messages" and using communication outside the team
- A repeat of 1986 and 2007 when RedBull and/or Ferrari are closer
- Their big investment in Hamilton gets less chance to pay off
- Real expensive to buy him out of the Honda contract and meet his demands
- Getting older, short term solution for a problem that isn't there.