I prefer to do my predictions based on reasonable assumptions and under a "worst-case/best-case" method. In order to work out a reasonable and probable outcome, the question then becomes how would Hamilton end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Vettel does everything right?.
E.g.: Assuming Vettel does everything right, he'll win where he can and be 2nd where he can't. The question then is; how many wins would Hamilton need? This answer has been answered in my post.
One could also ask the opposite: How would Vettel end up being WDC in the worst-case scenario, assuming Hamilton does everything right?.
When tackling the question using both worst and best-case scenarios for each driver, you don't assume that one driver melts down or that a potential headrest could cause a safe win to evaporate. If you start basing predictions on these kind of assumptions, you might as well include hundredths of possible other causes too.
There are evidently people who like to assume a best-case scenario for their driver and worst-case for the other. Fair enough. I presented permutations for both view-points. I did however also outline the trend so far this season and made a reasonable assumption that the rest of the season could pan out similar, that being that Ferrari remains a strong competitor on all tracks and that Mercedes, when not being strongest, may not only face one competitive Ferrari, but two, and a potential RedBull as well that will cause them to lose more points "on a bad day" than Ferrari. How likely this ends up being the case depends how strong (or how much they struggle) on certain upcoming tracks.
I'll be happy to update the spreadsheet as the races continue and we can all see (and judge) if that trend curve continues or not.
The odds of Hamilton having another headrest issue are significantly less than Vettel having another "melt down". You are implying that the odds are equal.
Indeed. One could argue that was what happened last weekend in the rain in Singapore. He was under massive pressure and did something out of the normal because of it.
Maybe my mind is playing tricks, but, apart from being rear ended by Vettel at Baku, I don't think Hamilton even scratched his car this season? Or am I missing something...
The odds of Hamilton having another headrest issue are significantly less than Vettel having another "melt down". You are implying that the odds are equal.
Indeed. One could argue that was what happened last weekend in the rain in Singapore. He was under massive pressure and did something out of the normal because of it.
Maybe my mind is playing tricks, but, apart from being rear ended by Vettel at Baku, I don't think Hamilton even scratched his car this season? Or am I missing something...
What are you on about? What has Vettel and his known tendency to 'have a melt down' got to do with Hamilton's car being scratched?
Any way... the pressure is on Vet and it's been there all season. The media, his team, himself and hell even Ham have made damn sure if that.
Not for nothing did Ham bring up the point about no team/driver have retained a championship through a reg change.
I wonder if Ros winning last year will actually help Ham this season as he now knows how to handle not winning a WDC when you have the tools to do so (luck aside). That is something Vet has never had to face.
Vet has always had questionable temperament under pressure. Well that's now been turned up to 11.
Indeed. One could argue that was what happened last weekend in the rain in Singapore. He was under massive pressure and did something out of the normal because of it.
Maybe my mind is playing tricks, but, apart from being rear ended by Vettel at Baku, I don't think Hamilton even scratched his car this season? Or am I missing something...
What are you on about? What has Vettel and his known tendency to 'have a melt down' got to do with Hamilton's car being scratched?
The contrast. Apart from the penalty he got for driving to slow in the pit lane, he has a flawless season. In the past seasons there would always be some carbon bits flying of his car.
Maybe my mind is playing tricks, but, apart from being rear ended by Vettel at Baku, I don't think Hamilton even scratched his car this season? Or am I missing something...
What are you on about? What has Vettel and his known tendency to 'have a melt down' got to do with Hamilton's car being scratched?
The contrast. Apart from the penalty he got for driving to slow in the pit lane, he has a flawless season. In the past seasons there would always be some carbon bits flying of his car.
I still don't see how that made you jump on my post with 'or am I missing something' as nothing I said required that responce.
What are you on about? What has Vettel and his known tendency to 'have a melt down' got to do with Hamilton's car being scratched?
The contrast. Apart from the penalty he got for driving to slow in the pit lane, he has a flawless season. In the past seasons there would always be some carbon bits flying of his car.
I still don't see how that made you jump on my post with 'or am I missing something' as nothing I said required that responce.
He hasn't jumped on you, he's genuinely asking if he missed Hamilton 'scratching' his car this season.
The contrast. Apart from the penalty he got for driving to slow in the pit lane, he has a flawless season. In the past seasons there would always be some carbon bits flying of his car.
I still don't see how that made you jump on my post with 'or am I missing something' as nothing I said required that responce.
He hasn't jumped on you, he's genuinely asking if he missed Hamilton 'scratching' his car this season.
Thats how i read it too. Thats the trouble with forums, its easy to misread someones message.
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I haven't read the article but, just to put these odds in perspective, last year I calculated the odds of Rosberg or Hamilton winning. The circumstances were as follows:
Title fight between drivers from different manufacturers.
Mercedes less dominant than in 2016/2015/2014.
The odds in the 2016 case were 77% Rosberg, 23% Hamilton; exactly the same as Autosport's odds this year [Hamilton 77%, Vettel 23%].
Relative to my modelling exercise of last year, I'd suggest Vettel's supposed 23% chance is heavily influenced by the uncertainty of having 6 races left.
I haven't read the article but, just to put these odds in perspective, last year I calculated the odds of Rosberg or Hamilton winning. The circumstances were as follows:
Title fight between drivers from different manufacturers.
Mercedes less dominant than in 2016/2015/2014.
The odds in the 2016 case were 77% Rosberg, 23% Hamilton; exactly the same as Autosport's odds this year [Hamilton 77%, Vettel 23%].
Relative to my modelling exercise of last year, I'd suggest Vettel's supposed 23% chance is heavily influenced by the uncertainty of having 6 races left.
Last year the two title rivals had the same dominant car “statistic”, this year Hamilton is in a car which won more then twice the races then Vettel’s Ferrari.
I haven't read the article but, just to put these odds in perspective, last year I calculated the odds of Rosberg or Hamilton winning. The circumstances were as follows:
Title fight between drivers from different manufacturers.
Mercedes less dominant than in 2016/2015/2014.
The odds in the 2016 case were 77% Rosberg, 23% Hamilton; exactly the same as Autosport's odds this year [Hamilton 77%, Vettel 23%].
Relative to my modelling exercise of last year, I'd suggest Vettel's supposed 23% chance is heavily influenced by the uncertainty of having 6 races left.
Last year the two title rivals had the same dominant car “statistic”, this year Hamilton is in a car which won more then twice the races then Vettel’s Ferrari.
Yes, I have effectively stated as such in my observations; points 4 and 5 take this into account. This is why I conclude the odds must value the uncertainty of the remaining races fairly highly to assign a 23% chance to Vettel - which I consider to be too high.
I'd suggest the uncertainty stems from the fact that it's pretty hard to tell how Mercedes, Ferrari and RedBull will match up on the next 6 races against one another. Last year was less complex, since it was a two horse race, so it was irrelevant how well the other cars were, just how good both drivers would perform within the same car against each other.
I still stand by my estimates that there's a probable risk that both Ferrari and RedBull could do very well in some of the upcoming races, leading to a higher points loss to Hamilton. Yes, there will be tracks where Hamilton will be strong and probably be the favorite to win, but in those races, I'd expect Vette to finish best of the rest and keep the point loss to a minimum.
When I look at last years qualifying performance, I also think that both RedBull and Ferrari were very close, despite the domination Mercedes enjoyed. Given this year the gap to both RedBull and Ferrari is smaller, it could be quite conceivable that one or both could be faster than Mercedes this year.
Some of the unknowns up ahead:
- Ferrari's turbo situation
- Ferrari's spec 4 PU
- Mercedes allocation of engines and the oil limit
- How strong will RedBull be?
- How strong will Kimi and Bottas be and how will that influence the point-loss of either Vettel/Hamilton when the other wins?
@Jolle,
Yes, the Mercedes won 9 races vs Vettel's 4 wins. However, one could argue that Mercedes got quite a bit lucky, for example at Socchi with Bottas start and Singapore. One could however add Baku to Mercedes tally. That brings the count to 8 races vs 6 in Mercedes favor which is slightly less distorted than 9 vs 4. I'd also argue that Ferrari has been quite a bit more consistent overall vs the Mercedes. It's also quite clear that the Mercedes has dealt with some problems, highlighted by the fact that Bottas won twice when Hamilton was facing quite a few problems with the car. When Hamilton won, Bottas faced similar issues. It's not guaranteed these problems will not resurface and that one of the Mercedes driver will have difficulties in exploiting the maximum from the car to be competitive. The Ferrari in comparison has not had these issues showing strong performances throughout.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
The biggest factor IMO is Bottas no longer taking points from Hamilton the way Kimi has been retrained from doing to Vettel. That's something that hasn't been factored but at some point if not in this very first race in Malaysia will benefit Hamilton instead of hindering him.
Imagine the following:
Towards the end of the race, Vettel is leading ahead of a RedBull, then followed by Bottas, then Kimi and Hamilton.
What is Mercedes supposed to do?
They might intervene if they are in a position to do so, but i find it rather doubtful they will go too far to help Hamilton.
As for how Hamilton could end up being behind his team mate:
- a bad start
- a technical issue with the car
- Bottas is more competitive on the day
There is no guarantee this could not happen. Bottas is still in the hunt for thr championship, even if it would take a miracle. This puts Mercedes in a difficult position and as image and PR conscious as they are, i would not bet on them to do everything possible to make sure Hamilton finishes as the best Mercedes.
The Mercedes could still struggle with set up. It still is very feasable this could lead to a scenario where Bottas, being different on the tires, could be quicker. Do not take Hamilton beating Bottas for granted. A lot can happen between the Saturday and the last lap of a grand prix...
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
