2017 Championship Permutations

[Just_a_fan]

Again, I feel this is more about looking back than analyzing behaviour/weaknesses to assess probability for the next 4 races. Creating a profile for the driver is fine, but shouldn't more effort be put into using the profile to, for instance, predict the start at the next GP?

With respect, this backwards analysis is part of making the profile. You can't start to use the profile to guess future outcomes until the profile is done. Constantly saying "you're looking backwards not forwards" isn't very helpful.

[Jolle]

Again, I feel this is more about looking back than analyzing behaviour/weaknesses to assess probability for the next 4 races. Creating a profile for the driver is fine, but shouldn't more effort be put into using the profile to, for instance, predict the start at the next GP?

(For the record, turn one of the US GP is nicely wide and open, favouring a more agressive approach, which benefits Vettel imho).

For the last few years an aggressive Vettel is a crashing Vettel.

#missingthepoint

I think there was only one occurance of a crash in turn one at a start of the us gp, back in 2015. In the middle of the pack that is. Vettel surviving the first corner raises his chances on scoring a podium position, which means the title is normally not going to be decided in the USA.

Not looking back, then it's a clear case of numbers. Taking the past in account, Hamilton's track record on CofA, his spotless car this year and on the other side a challenger who is beginning to get a reputation of not being the cleanest when cars are around him, is still looking forward, but in a bit more detail. A wide track doesn't matter when there is a fight for position. Vettel will be in a disadvantage, he has to finish in front of Hamilton. Hamilton on the other hand can easily hold his line when Vettel is being aggressive. If they both crash it will give Mercedes a one-two in the championship. I also don't see other drivers yield for Vettel. Worst case for Vettel will be Hamilton on pole, his second and Verstappen right behind him (who will run him wide on the exit of the first corner, with Vettel screaming on the radio again and then crashing into Ocon coming back on the tarmac) (and what will be my prize if this will be the case?)

[turbof1]

Again, I feel this is more about looking back than analyzing behaviour/weaknesses to assess probability for the next 4 races. Creating a profile for the driver is fine, but shouldn't more effort be put into using the profile to, for instance, predict the start at the next GP?

With respect, this backwards analysis is part of making the profile. You can't start to use the profile to guess future outcomes until the profile is done. Constantly saying "you're looking backwards not forwards" isn't very helpful.

It is in this case. I think there are several pages dedicated on Vettel's profile, so that's definitely complete enough .

Not looking back, then it's a clear case of numbers. Taking the past in account, Hamilton's track record on CofA, his spotless car this year and on the other side a challenger who is beginning to get a reputation of not being the cleanest when cars are around him, is still looking forward, but in a bit more detail. A wide track doesn't matter when there is a fight for position. Vettel will be in a disadvantage, he has to finish in front of Hamilton. Hamilton on the other hand can easily hold his line when Vettel is being aggressive. If they both crash it will give Mercedes a one-two in the championship. I also don't see other drivers yield for Vettel. Worst case for Vettel will be Hamilton on pole, his second and Verstappen right behind him (who will run him wide on the exit of the first corner, with Vettel screaming on the radio again and then crashing into Ocon coming back on the tarmac) (and what will be my prize if this will be the case?)

I agree that Vettel will likely not beat Hamilton. US GP has cooler temperatures, and provides low level of surface grip, which suits the Mercedes much better.

That being said, there are a multitude of lines one can take through turn one. The track is too wide to effectively crowd somebody out, unlike in Singapore. Yes that matters as trying to defend and compromise your approach to turn one will give the opponent the oppertunity to carry more speed on an alternative line. A lot less chance on sandwhiching at the front. He's not going to crash in such circumstances. So he's most likely going to end up on the podium. Title is not likely to be decided in these more "crash-unfriendly" circumstances.

Your prize, if you are right, will be that Vettel crashes. I get the impression you're sneakingly hoping for it .

[Jolle]

Again, I feel this is more about looking back than analyzing behaviour/weaknesses to assess probability for the next 4 races. Creating a profile for the driver is fine, but shouldn't more effort be put into using the profile to, for instance, predict the start at the next GP?

With respect, this backwards analysis is part of making the profile. You can't start to use the profile to guess future outcomes until the profile is done. Constantly saying "you're looking backwards not forwards" isn't very helpful.

It is in this case. I think there are several pages dedicated on Vettel's profile, so that's definitely complete enough .

He's a complex driver....

[Jolle]

Again, I feel this is more about looking back than analyzing behaviour/weaknesses to assess probability for the next 4 races. Creating a profile for the driver is fine, but shouldn't more effort be put into using the profile to, for instance, predict the start at the next GP?

With respect, this backwards analysis is part of making the profile. You can't start to use the profile to guess future outcomes until the profile is done. Constantly saying "you're looking backwards not forwards" isn't very helpful.

It is in this case. I think there are several pages dedicated on Vettel's profile, so that's definitely complete enough .

Not looking back, then it's a clear case of numbers. Taking the past in account, Hamilton's track record on CofA, his spotless car this year and on the other side a challenger who is beginning to get a reputation of not being the cleanest when cars are around him, is still looking forward, but in a bit more detail. A wide track doesn't matter when there is a fight for position. Vettel will be in a disadvantage, he has to finish in front of Hamilton. Hamilton on the other hand can easily hold his line when Vettel is being aggressive. If they both crash it will give Mercedes a one-two in the championship. I also don't see other drivers yield for Vettel. Worst case for Vettel will be Hamilton on pole, his second and Verstappen right behind him (who will run him wide on the exit of the first corner, with Vettel screaming on the radio again and then crashing into Ocon coming back on the tarmac) (and what will be my prize if this will be the case?)

I agree that Vettel will likely not beat Hamilton. US GP has cooler temperatures, and provides low level of surface grip, which suits the Mercedes much better.

That being said, there are a multitude of lines one can take through turn one. The track is too wide to effectively crowd somebody out, unlike in Singapore. Yes that matters as trying to defend and compromise your approach to turn one will give the opponent the oppertunity to carry more speed on an alternative line. A lot less chance on sandwhiching at the front. He's not going to crash in such circumstances. So he's most likely going to end up on the podium. Title is not likely to be decided in these more "crash-unfriendly" circumstances.

Your prize, if you are right, will be that Vettel crashes. I get the impression you're sneakingly hoping for it .

I remember Hamilton-Rosberg quite clearly from a few seasons ago (and so does Verstappen). Hamilton taking the inside line, leaving no space for Rosberg who didn't yield. For some reason, German drivers never do...

and not hoping, more a case of counting on it. Vettel actually isn't that hard to read.

[Moose]

Vettel won't cause a crash, because one more DNF (even if it means a DNF for Hamilton) will mean that this thread will rapidly have a post in it saying this:

At The Next Race:
1. If Vettel wins, Hamilton must finish second to win the championship.
2. If Vettel is second, Hamilton must finish at least 5th to win the championship.
3. If Vettel is third, Hamilton must finish at least 7th to win the championship.
4. If Vettel is fourth, Hamilton must finish at least 8th to win the championship.
5. If Vettel is fifth, Hamilton must finish at least 10th to win the championship.
6. If Vettel is sixth or lower, Hamilton has won the championship.

If Hamilton were to survive such a crash, and go on to win, or be second it would result in a post in this thread saying:

It's all over, Hamilton has won the championship.

[Fulcrum]

Backwards analysis? Statisticians and data scientists should be so proud of their new job specifications.

I've tried to say this already, but maybe I need to be a bit more blunt. There is no analysis technique, beyond pure subjective bias, that would give Vettel anything beyond a slim chance at this stage.

Yes, prior to Singapore his chances would have been reasonable, measurable. Using that as means to justify why he still has a reasonable chance is sophistry.

Vettel's circumstances would not have been predicted by a reasonably calibrated model - call it his Black Swan if you like, but models are not designed, primarily, to predict outliers.

Here is the definition of a Black Swan:

• It is an outlier.

• It lies outside the realm of regular expectation.

• Nothing in the observed data suggests its possibility.

• It has extreme impact if it occurs.

• After it has occurred, we attempt to rationalise, or construct explanations, justifying how it could have been predicted.

Point #5 in particular feels particularly relevant at this point in the discussion.

[Phil]

At The Next Race:
1. If Vettel wins, Hamilton must finish second to win the championship

Actually, no, if Hamilton wins CotA, he’ll only need a 5th place and it’s done (not second).

Another win would extend Hamiltons lead to 66 points (+7) with 75 left. To take the WDC he will need a gap beyond 50 after Mexico. If the gap beyond CotA is 66, he can allow hinself a 5th place to a Vettel win (-15 points) and he’ll have a 51 points gap with 50 points on the table.

I've tried to say this already, but maybe I need to be a bit more blunt. There is no analysis technique, beyond pure subjective bias, that would give Vettel anything beyond a slim chance at this stage.

Assuming you are referring to me, i never stated something other than that Vettels chances are indeed slim. My post was to highlight that his chances does rely on a Hamilton DNF (or at the very least a race going terribly wrong) and my take that the last 3 races may not favor Mercedes, as many reliable sources are stating and seem to think. Assuming Hamilton does DNF, i think the championship could still turn out to be closer than one thinks. I however dont think Hamilton will DNF, that probability is quite small (though as i did point out, no statistical data ever supported Ferrari having 3 troublesome races before Singapore either).

[Manoah2u]

What about IF:

Hamilton delibaretely runs into Vettel and takes them both out?

I know this is not Hamilton's style, and there are imminent dangers like taking yourself out and not Vettel, and the risk of getting caught and getting DSQ for the season,
but let's imagine he can point his car good enough that he is certain to defend 'not seeing Seb' and still slamming into his sidepod and rear/front wheel so guaranteed DNF for both.

would that decide the championship?

[Restomaniac]

What about IF:

Hamilton delibaretely runs into Vettel and takes them both out?

I know this is not Hamilton's style, and there are imminent dangers like taking yourself out and not Vettel, and the risk of getting caught and getting DSQ for the season,
but let's imagine he can point his car good enough that he is certain to defend 'not seeing Seb' and still slamming into his sidepod and rear/front wheel so guaranteed DNF for both.

would that decide the championship?

No.

[Just_a_fan]

What about IF:

Hamilton delibaretely runs into Vettel and takes them both out?
[...]
would that decide the championship?

Only if he did it twice.

Even the FIA's stewards would spot that happening and do something about it.

[NathanOlder]

The only way that wouldn't decide the championship is because Bottas would probably be marginally in front of Vettel in the standings after Bottas finishes 3rd to Ricciardo and Max in the US.

As for Lewis, for a blatant shunt like that..... think 97, MSC.

So no Manoah2u, it wouldn't settle the title, in fact it would make it an amazing climax to the season!! Even Ricciardo would have a chance! Damn, if the FIA read what I just wrote, its more than likely to happen

[TAG]

What about IF:

Hamilton delibaretely runs into Vettel and takes them both out?
[...]
would that decide the championship?

Only if he did it twice.

Even the FIA's stewards would spot that happening and do something about it.

I mean what's the worst they could do, give him a ten second drive through penalty?

[Phil]

I'd be more interested in what would happen if Kimi somehow took out Hamilton and as a consequence of that, Vettel wins the race...

It wouldn't have to be too obvious mind you, but assuming Hamilton and Kimi are close enough, a misjudged overtake attempt would already do the deed.

Disclaimer: I'm not at all going to assume that Ferrari is willing to go that far, nor that they would plan such a thing in advance.

[Just_a_fan]

Kimi is many things but a Piquet Jnr he certainly isn't.