2017 Championship Permutations

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Restomaniac
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Restomaniac » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:46 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:45 pm
I'd be more interested in what would happen if Kimi somehow took out Hamilton and as a consequence of that, Vettel wins the race...

It wouldn't have to be too obvious mind you, but assuming Hamilton and Kimi are close enough, a misjudged overtake attempt would already do the deed.

Disclaimer: I'm not at all going to assume that Ferrari is willing to go that far, nor that they would plan such a thing in advance.
Plus Kimi isn't 'that guy'.

Bill_Kar
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Bill_Kar » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:36 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:21 am
What about IF:

Hamilton delibaretely runs into Vettel and takes them both out?

I know this is not Hamilton's style, and there are imminent dangers like taking yourself out and not Vettel, and the risk of getting caught and getting DSQ for the season,
but let's imagine he can point his car good enough that he is certain to defend 'not seeing Seb' and still slamming into his sidepod and rear/front wheel so guaranteed DNF for both.

would that decide the championship?
It would be extremely dumb for Hamilton. It's an almost certain championship, why would he stain his title like that? Just to clinch the title a little bit earlier?

What we could discuss stochastically, is whether Hamilton would crash onto Vettel in Abu Dhabi if Vettel has managed to make a miracle comeback

Manoah2u
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Manoah2u » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:07 pm

Well, let's be honest here, Schumacher did it, and so did Senna and so did Prost - which is essentially why Senna did it.
I mentioned Hamilton is not at all the type of guy to do such a thing. I'd imagine Vettel doing such a thing before Hamilton would, especially with Baku in mind. Still, not saying that either of them would do it, but i am curious to what the non-penalized outcome would be should he do that. Anybody can imagine the backlash and dangers of DSQ with such a move, but it was not a question of morale, rather a question of numbers. so thanks for the clear reply with the 'no' lol.

Sidetracking from Vettel and Hamilton though,

if Hamilton would get 4 DNFS from now on - hypothetically, not statistically - could Bottas actually cling the title if he'd finish in front of Vettel and if so, by what margin does he need to?
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Moose » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:28 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:35 am
Moose wrote: At The Next Race:
1. If Vettel wins, Hamilton must finish second to win the championship
Actually, no, if Hamilton wins CotA, he’ll only need a 5th place and it’s done (not second).
How about reading - this is dealing with the situation in which both of them DNF at CoTA due to an accident, and reasoning about why Vettel will not cause an accident.

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Bill_Kar » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:39 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:07 pm
Well, let's be honest here, Schumacher did it, and so did Senna and so did Prost - which is essentially why Senna did it.
I mentioned Hamilton is not at all the type of guy to do such a thing. I'd imagine Vettel doing such a thing before Hamilton would, especially with Baku in mind. Still, not saying that either of them would do it, but i am curious to what the non-penalized outcome would be should he do that. Anybody can imagine the backlash and dangers of DSQ with such a move, but it was not a question of morale, rather a question of numbers. so thanks for the clear reply with the 'no' lol.

Sidetracking from Vettel and Hamilton though,

if Hamilton would get 4 DNFS from now on - hypothetically, not statistically - could Bottas actually cling the title if he'd finish in front of Vettel and if so, by what margin does he need to?
You are correct, many drivers did it but so many didn't. I think it's an old habit, nowadays someone would get DSQ instantly and it's kind of difficult to find support so blind as Schumacher or Senna enjoyed. So it would definitely define his career in a bad way.

But, to respect to your question, purely number-wise definitely it's for Hamilton's best interest. Same margin, one less race left? Dream.
But of course he is really the favourite for USGP so possibly could extend his lead even further, but also add some statistics.

For the Bottas scenario, do you mean that he finishes in front in every race?
In general, Bottas is 72 points behind HAM and 13 behind VET. So sure thing is that even with 4 2nd places he would lose the championship to HAM (because of wins). So to cover HAM he needs at least one win and three 2nd places (or two wins, one 2nd place and one 7th etc) . But he won't cover VET if VET's results are inverted.
If BOT goes on to win thrice and one DNF, he covers HAM but if VET is best of the rest in 3 races, he wants the German to finish 7th or less (in every tie, VET wins due to second places or wins).
If BOT goes on to win thrice and one 2nd place, with VET inverted results, BOT clinches the title by one point.

TL;DR. He wants on average to earn 3.something points more than Vettel but it is essential that he win and/or have some 2nd place-s to cover HAM.

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Phil » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:59 pm

Moose wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:28 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:35 am
Moose wrote: At The Next Race:
1. If Vettel wins, Hamilton must finish second to win the championship
Actually, no, if Hamilton wins CotA, he’ll only need a 5th place and it’s done (not second).
How about reading - this is dealing with the situation in which both of them DNF at CoTA due to an accident, and reasoning about why Vettel will not cause an accident.
Oops, you are right. I did read your post carefully, just understood it differently (as in the potential that Vettel crashes while Hamilton goes on to win). And i’ve seen it quoted wrong in a couple of places (including this topic) that Hamilton needs a win and 2nd place to be WDC, which of course is wrong, so i replied to yours. :oops:
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. (Ask the average Vettel fan what that's like.) --- bhall II

Manoah2u
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Manoah2u » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:58 pm

Bill_Kar wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:39 pm
Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:07 pm
Well, let's be honest here, Schumacher did it, and so did Senna and so did Prost - which is essentially why Senna did it.
I mentioned Hamilton is not at all the type of guy to do such a thing. I'd imagine Vettel doing such a thing before Hamilton would, especially with Baku in mind. Still, not saying that either of them would do it, but i am curious to what the non-penalized outcome would be should he do that. Anybody can imagine the backlash and dangers of DSQ with such a move, but it was not a question of morale, rather a question of numbers. so thanks for the clear reply with the 'no' lol.

Sidetracking from Vettel and Hamilton though,

if Hamilton would get 4 DNFS from now on - hypothetically, not statistically - could Bottas actually cling the title if he'd finish in front of Vettel and if so, by what margin does he need to?
You are correct, many drivers did it but so many didn't. I think it's an old habit, nowadays someone would get DSQ instantly and it's kind of difficult to find support so blind as Schumacher or Senna enjoyed. So it would definitely define his career in a bad way.

But, to respect to your question, purely number-wise definitely it's for Hamilton's best interest. Same margin, one less race left? Dream.
But of course he is really the favourite for USGP so possibly could extend his lead even further, but also add some statistics.

For the Bottas scenario, do you mean that he finishes in front in every race?
In general, Bottas is 72 points behind HAM and 13 behind VET. So sure thing is that even with 4 2nd places he would lose the championship to HAM (because of wins). So to cover HAM he needs at least one win and three 2nd places (or two wins, one 2nd place and one 7th etc) . But he won't cover VET if VET's results are inverted.
If BOT goes on to win thrice and one DNF, he covers HAM but if VET is best of the rest in 3 races, he wants the German to finish 7th or less (in every tie, VET wins due to second places or wins).
If BOT goes on to win thrice and one 2nd place, with VET inverted results, BOT clinches the title by one point.

TL;DR. He wants on average to earn 3.something points more than Vettel but it is essential that he win and/or have some 2nd place-s to cover HAM.
Interesting, so hypothetically speaking,

if hammy doesn't finish in the points anymore, a single win and 3 times a 2nd place - which is not at all out of the question to achieve - would grant him the WDC but then he must at all times finish in front of Vettel, thus Vettel could geta P2 in COTA and Bottas win, and then in the final races we can have Verstappen grab a win, Ricciardo grab a win, and Kimi grab a win, and Bottas will be 2nd always, and Vettel must not be able to pass him so end up no better than P3 and then Bottas is WDC - again, as long as hamilton does not score more than 7 points, thus finishing less than 7th, right?

if he -bottas- wins 2 races, hamilton can score 7 points more thus he can get 14 points over the next 4 races.

interesting to know.

to pass Vettel in the WDC Bottas needs 14 points to gain over VET so either he must always finish in front of VET (as long as seb finishes) AND there must be 1 car atleast in between them at the race finish (so if BOT is P2, VET P4) for atleast 2 races, OR BOT must win 1 GP and he must finish atleast 1 place in front of VET the other 3 races but not classify below P3 OR he must have 1 win, 1 P3, and then for 2 races finish above P9 whilst at all times he must keep Vettel behind him - and then still we have the issue of grabbing 72 points over lewis. so he must get 73 points to beat Lewis, and then vettel may not score more than 57 points over the next 4 gp's.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

Bill_Kar
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Bill_Kar » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:47 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:58 pm


Interesting, so hypothetically speaking,

if hammy doesn't finish in the points anymore, a single win and 3 times a 2nd place - which is not at all out of the question to achieve - would grant him the WDC but then he must at all times finish in front of Vettel, thus Vettel could geta P2 in COTA and Bottas win, and then in the final races we can have Verstappen grab a win, Ricciardo grab a win, and Kimi grab a win, and Bottas will be 2nd always, and Vettel must not be able to pass him so end up no better than P3 and then Bottas is WDC - again, as long as hamilton does not score more than 7 points, thus finishing less than 7th, right?

if he -bottas- wins 2 races, hamilton can score 7 points more thus he can get 14 points over the next 4 races.

interesting to know.

to pass Vettel in the WDC Bottas needs 14 points to gain over VET so either he must always finish in front of VET (as long as seb finishes) AND there must be 1 car atleast in between them at the race finish (so if BOT is P2, VET P4) for atleast 2 races, OR BOT must win 1 GP and he must finish atleast 1 place in front of VET the other 3 races but not classify below P3 OR he must have 1 win, 1 P3, and then for 2 races finish above P9 whilst at all times he must keep Vettel behind him - and then still we have the issue of grabbing 72 points over lewis. so he must get 73 points to beat Lewis, and then vettel may not score more than 57 points over the next 4 gp's.
Yeah I thought of an interesting scenario with Bottas winning in COTA but finishing third to the bulls in the remaining races. That covers vettel but doesn't cover Hamilton
Interesting, as well, seems what you said - 57 points for Vettel. That means for Bottas that Vettel has an average position outside of the podium, ie 4th or less. (to be precise, 3.1th or less)
So three last races, one second place then finishing twice behind the bulls and still grabs championship by one point. Plus he can afford vettel finishing third to Bottas' second place

Manoah2u
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Manoah2u » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:08 pm

Would be quite the scenario if that actually happens.

Bottas grabbing the WDC in his first outing in AMG Mercedes F1 Team, beating 3-time WDC Hamilton who is / then was on a high, and additionally also have beaten 4-time WDC Vettel in the Ferrari who both were in front of them just 4 races into the finish of the season.

Realistically speaking offcourse, Bottas' actually snatching that WDC is rather substancially out of reach.
It'll undoubtedly be between Hamilton and Vettel and it's also realistic that Vettel is too far behind by now to beat Lewis, who's very strong and at his very best right now and so is his team. And despite not being impossible, it's unlikely that events now turn in favor for Vettel where Lewis will have a DNF twice, and Vettel then still needing to beat Bottas and the RedBulls for the win, he still will be 9 points behind Hamilton with just 2 races to snatch the title from Lewis, which means atleast 1 win and then finishing in front of Hamilton in either one of those 2 races. Not impossible but rather unrealistic.

Either way, if Hamilton grabs more than 2 WDC points than Bottas in Austin, Bottas is 100% out of the WDC fight as he would then have a 75 point lead over Bottas with only 3 races to go totalling a max of 75 points to grab and Lewis would beat Bottas on season positions. So if Lewis finishes higher than 4th and Bottas is not in front of him, Bottas is out.

So the only one of the three WDC contenders who potentially can be eliminated from the WDC battle in Austin is Bottas, right? for Vettel we need to wait for Mexico.
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Moose
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Moose » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:02 pm

Restomaniac wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:46 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:45 pm
I'd be more interested in what would happen if Kimi somehow took out Hamilton and as a consequence of that, Vettel wins the race...

It wouldn't have to be too obvious mind you, but assuming Hamilton and Kimi are close enough, a misjudged overtake attempt would already do the deed.

Disclaimer: I'm not at all going to assume that Ferrari is willing to go that far, nor that they would plan such a thing in advance.
Plus Kimi isn't 'that guy'.
Last I checked, Flavio Briatore isn't at Ferrari.

Restomaniac
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Restomaniac » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:12 am

Moose wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:02 pm
Restomaniac wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:46 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:45 pm
I'd be more interested in what would happen if Kimi somehow took out Hamilton and as a consequence of that, Vettel wins the race...

It wouldn't have to be too obvious mind you, but assuming Hamilton and Kimi are close enough, a misjudged overtake attempt would already do the deed.

Disclaimer: I'm not at all going to assume that Ferrari is willing to go that far, nor that they would plan such a thing in advance.
Plus Kimi isn't 'that guy'.
Last I checked, Flavio Briatore isn't at Ferrari.
=D>

Cannonballer
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Cannonballer » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:59 am

Manoah2u wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:08 pm
Would be quite the scenario if that actually happens.

Bottas grabbing the WDC in his first outing in AMG Mercedes F1 Team, beating 3-time WDC Hamilton who is / then was on a high, and additionally also have beaten 4-time WDC Vettel in the Ferrari who both were in front of them just 4 races into the finish of the season.

Realistically speaking offcourse, Bottas' actually snatching that WDC is rather substancially out of reach.
It'll undoubtedly be between Hamilton and Vettel and it's also realistic that Vettel is too far behind by now to beat Lewis, who's very strong and at his very best right now and so is his team. And despite not being impossible, it's unlikely that events now turn in favor for Vettel where Lewis will have a DNF twice, and Vettel then still needing to beat Bottas and the RedBulls for the win, he still will be 9 points behind Hamilton with just 2 races to snatch the title from Lewis, which means atleast 1 win and then finishing in front of Hamilton in either one of those 2 races. Not impossible but rather unrealistic.

Either way, if Hamilton grabs more than 2 WDC points than Bottas in Austin, Bottas is 100% out of the WDC fight as he would then have a 75 point lead over Bottas with only 3 races to go totalling a max of 75 points to grab and Lewis would beat Bottas on season positions. So if Lewis finishes higher than 4th and Bottas is not in front of him, Bottas is out.

So the only one of the three WDC contenders who potentially can be eliminated from the WDC battle in Austin is Bottas, right? for Vettel we need to wait for Mexico.
Lewis has a 59 point lead so if he scores 16 or (17 depending on positions) more points than Vettel...
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Bill_Kar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:16 am

Manoah2u wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:08 pm
Would be quite the scenario if that actually happens.

Bottas grabbing the WDC in his first outing in AMG Mercedes F1 Team, beating 3-time WDC Hamilton who is / then was on a high, and additionally also have beaten 4-time WDC Vettel in the Ferrari who both were in front of them just 4 races into the finish of the season.

Realistically speaking offcourse, Bottas' actually snatching that WDC is rather substancially out of reach.
It'll undoubtedly be between Hamilton and Vettel and it's also realistic that Vettel is too far behind by now to beat Lewis, who's very strong and at his very best right now and so is his team. And despite not being impossible, it's unlikely that events now turn in favor for Vettel where Lewis will have a DNF twice, and Vettel then still needing to beat Bottas and the RedBulls for the win, he still will be 9 points behind Hamilton with just 2 races to snatch the title from Lewis, which means atleast 1 win and then finishing in front of Hamilton in either one of those 2 races. Not impossible but rather unrealistic.

Either way, if Hamilton grabs more than 2 WDC points than Bottas in Austin, Bottas is 100% out of the WDC fight as he would then have a 75 point lead over Bottas with only 3 races to go totalling a max of 75 points to grab and Lewis would beat Bottas on season positions. So if Lewis finishes higher than 4th and Bottas is not in front of him, Bottas is out.

So the only one of the three WDC contenders who potentially can be eliminated from the WDC battle in Austin is Bottas, right? for Vettel we need to wait for Mexico.
Yeah the whole Bottas WC thing is crazy, if it happened it would be one of the greatest twists in the history of sports. But you mentioned it, and you got me :mrgreen:

Potentially , Vettel can be eliminated too. A rather awkward scenario though, but when we permutate, we tend to give an advantage to Vettel because we all want him to fight back. But when you look into the facts, in the end of the day, it's more probable for Vettel to DNF (or hit trouble in general) than Hamilton.

Of course a weak team losing 5 or 6 times in row, will win eventually. But statistically speaking, it would be wiser to bet your money that this team will lose the next fixture.
In contrast, you wouldn't bet on a winning team to lose just because the "law" orders that the team will lose eventually.

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Phil » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:04 am

Bill_Kar wrote:
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:16 am
A rather awkward scenario though, but when we permutate, we tend to give an advantage to Vettel because we all want him to fight back. But when you look into the facts, in the end of the day, it's more probable for Vettel to DNF (or hit trouble in general) than Hamilton.

Of course a weak team losing 5 or 6 times in row, will win eventually. But statistically speaking, it would be wiser to bet your money that this team will lose the next fixture.
This statistical talk about Vettels DNF feels too much like playing roulette based on statistics. Even if red comes 10 times in a row, the chance of hitting black on the 11th bet is still 48.6%.

Sure, F1 cars may be a bit more predictable, since for every technical issue, there's a logical reason behind it. Behind every part there's an element to wear and tear etc. But looking at all the issues both Mercedes and Ferrari had this year, I can come up with the following:

Austria: Hamilton gearbox
Bahrain: Bottas engine failure (high mileage?)
Silverstone: Vettel & Kimi tire blowout
Baku: Hamilton head-rest issue
Singapore: Vettel/Max/Kimi collision (driver inflicted)
Malaysia: Vettel QF & Kimi formation lap PU related (carbon air-intake)
Japan: Vettel PU related (spark plug), Bottas + Kimi gearbox

There are probably more but those that come to my mind immediately. Now, Vettel has had his fair share of bad luck with Malaysia and Japan and I am yet to see compelling arguments those issues (carbon in-take and spark-plugs) are because Ferrari has been pushing too far on their spec4 engine. To me, they sound like silly mistakes. The carbon-in-take issue sounds like bad quality-control that manifested itself in both cars almost at the same time, but once the faulty part was replaced, Vettel showed a very good incident free race. In Japan, the spark plug issue only hit Vettel and there is indication that Mercedes could have run into the same issue (they exchanged spark plugs on Hamiltons car before the race as well). Maybe just very unfortunate bad luck.

I am yet to see or be convinced that these issues will strike again. Just because Vettel had 2 technical issues in the last two races does not IMO make it more probable that he will be hit again sooner than Hamilton. One could say Hamilton, who has pretty much had a flawless run so far (sans the headrest issue and gearbox penalty in Austria) is long overdue a problem.

Nearing the end of the season, Hamilton is still limited to the engines within his engine pool. These engines will have to last for another 4 race-weekends, assuming the plan isn't to take a 5th and penalties. Vettel has more and fresher engines at his disposal (even if one assumes that the engine in Japan might have been damaged as a result of running on 5 cylinders).
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. (Ask the average Vettel fan what that's like.) --- bhall II

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

Post by Bill_Kar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:24 am

Phil wrote:
Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:04 am

This statistical talk about Vettels DNF feels too much like playing roulette based on statistics. Even if red comes 10 times in a row, the chance of hitting black on the 11th bet is still 48.6%.

Sure, F1 cars may be a bit more predictable, since for every technical issue, there's a logical reason behind it. Behind every part there's an element to wear and tear etc. But looking at all the issues both Mercedes and Ferrari had this year, I can come up with the following:

Austria: Hamilton gearbox
Bahrain: Bottas engine failure (high mileage?)
Silverstone: Vettel & Kimi tire blowout
Baku: Hamilton head-rest issue
Singapore: Vettel/Max/Kimi collision (driver inflicted)
Malaysia: Vettel QF & Kimi formation lap PU related (carbon air-intake)
Japan: Vettel PU related (spark plug), Bottas + Kimi gearbox

There are probably more but those that come to my mind immediately. Now, Vettel has had his fair share of bad luck with Malaysia and Japan and I am yet to see compelling arguments those issues (carbon in-take and spark-plugs) are because Ferrari has been pushing too far on their spec4 engine. To me, they sound like silly mistakes. The carbon-in-take issue sounds like bad quality-control that manifested itself in both cars almost at the same time, but once the faulty part was replaced, Vettel showed a very good incident free race. In Japan, the spark plug issue only hit Vettel and there is indication that Mercedes could have run into the same issue (they exchanged spark plugs on Hamiltons car before the race as well). Maybe just very unfortunate bad luck.

I am yet to see or be convinced that these issues will strike again. Just because Vettel had 2 technical issues in the last two races does not IMO make it more probable that he will be hit again sooner than Hamilton. One could say Hamilton, who has pretty much had a flawless run so far (sans the headrest issue and gearbox penalty in Austria) is long overdue a problem.

Nearing the end of the season, Hamilton is still limited to the engines within his engine pool. These engines will have to last for another 4 race-weekends, assuming the plan isn't to take a 5th and penalties. Vettel has more and fresher engines at his disposal (even if one assumes that the engine in Japan might have been damaged as a result of running on 5 cylinders).
Surely you have to take out of the equation the headrest thing, the raikkonen gearbox (it was inflicted by a crash) and maybe the tyre blow.

But OK in general your logic lines up with mine but. If the inherent cause of Ferrari woes is the over the limit push of engine components, that says to me that it's still more probable to hit trouble as this won't change. Vettel can't go cautious now. Hamilton may be on a little bit more difficult situation in regard to engine pool, but the stress is minimal. And you have to take to account Mercedes pu reliability superiority.

So no, it's not roulette for sure. But if something works clock (may that be a football team or and F1 team) it won't change easily. Or to be more precise, you wouldn't bet on that team losing in the short term.