[2018] Pecking order speculation thread

[FrukostScones]

Renault in front of Mclaren for me.

Renault is definitely the dark horse.
HUL seems to be very happy.

[godlameroso]

After today I have it

Mercedes
Ferrari about .4 seconds back
Red Bull another .3 seconds back
Renault and McLaren neck and neck about a second away from Merc
Haas and TR neck and neck
everyone else.

Mind you, this may change slightly for Melbourne, maybe McLaren gets a little closer to Red Bull, but we'll see.

Ferrari is close, but not close enough, last year Ferrari was within .3 seconds of Mercedes, the gap has widened a little bit, but it's within reach, one engine update and some aero refinements and they can catch them. All Mercedes has to do is take a wrong turn somewhere in their development and they'll be caught mid season.

Seem like we have a 3 tier championship this year Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes is tier 1, Renault and McLaren is tier 2, the rest will be fighting for the occasional point finish.

[FvtecA]

After today I have it

Mercedes
Ferrari about .4 seconds back
Red Bull another .3 seconds back
Renault and McLaren neck and neck about a second away from Merc
Haas and TR neck and neck
everyone else.

Mind you, this may change slightly for Melbourne, maybe McLaren gets a little closer to Red Bull, but we'll see.

Ferrari is close, but not close enough, last year Ferrari was within .3 seconds of Mercedes, the gap has widened a little bit, but it's within reach, one engine update and some aero refinements and they can catch them. All Mercedes has to do is take a wrong turn somewhere in their development and they'll be caught mid season.

Seem like we have a 3 tier championship this year Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes is tier 1, Renault and McLaren is tier 2, the rest will be fighting for the occasional point finish.

I think Ferrari - Red Bull maybe closer to each other on high downforce tracks and farther on others.

I think McLaren will be behind Renault, and actually Williams and Haas together, while TR slightly behind.

All this of course is car pace. The actual pace (because of drivers) will probably push Williams back and TR and Haas closer. But I agree about the three tiers.

[Sevach]

Mercedes>Ferrari>Red Bull>Renault>Haas

[Jambier]

After today I have it

Mercedes
Ferrari about .4 seconds back
Red Bull another .3 seconds back
Renault and McLaren neck and neck about a second away from Merc
Haas and TR neck and neck
everyone else.

Mind you, this may change slightly for Melbourne, maybe McLaren gets a little closer to Red Bull, but we'll see.

Ferrari is close, but not close enough, last year Ferrari was within .3 seconds of Mercedes, the gap has widened a little bit, but it's within reach, one engine update and some aero refinements and they can catch them. All Mercedes has to do is take a wrong turn somewhere in their development and they'll be caught mid season.

Seem like we have a 3 tier championship this year Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes is tier 1, Renault and McLaren is tier 2, the rest will be fighting for the occasional point finish.

Quite similar for me.
I'd say
Mercedes , mostly in race condition
Ferrari (but in qualy quick)
Red Bull very close with Ferrari in race
Mclaren and Renault
Haas
TR

And then the others.

I think Haas will start well but will struggle with dev.
McLaren may be close to Renault at first, but I think they will made very big progress... I hope Renault can stay close with them.

[dren]

Mercedes
Red Bull
Ferrari

Renault
Mclaren
Haas
Force India
Williams
STR

Sauber

[GM7]

My analysis about the 2018 pecking order :

From the global test conclusion we can see that as it was expected during the winter break, Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mclaren and Renault look like they're the top 5.
These 5 teams were the most faster during winter testing.



In term of reliability, all the teams look very good even if Mclaren, Haas and Force India are a little bit more struggle with it, we can expect a bigger improvement from them during the begining of the season.



With the Pirelli informations we can understand a bit better the time sheet, White/Yellow = 0.8 sec , Yellow/Red = 0.4 sec , Red/Purple = 0.6 , Purple/Pink = 0.7 or 0.8 sec

I use the 1.18,825 (medium) as a reference time for the Mercedes Team.



Even with these informations the timesheet don't look very representative...So we have to listen to what the drivers and teams are saying.

Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull are definitely looking strong, they are talking about a 0.3 sec gap between Red Bull and Mercedes.

In the case of Renault and Mclaren, the drivers are very happy with what they have. The french team has made a big step forward during the winter and is actually developping a blown rear wing. The Woking team has also made a big step thanks to the new Renault power unit, the car looks good too, with a new concept of rear suspension.It could be a challenger for Mercedes etc...but they look to have some reliability issues and still some more development to do during the season to be a winning car.

The midfield battle will be hard as ever but one of the teams look a little bit stronger, Haas. As Gasly said this afternoon during the live in youtube, the VF-18 looks very strong, the american car has a very good front end. He defines Haas in a battle at the top of the midfield with Renault and Mclaren at the begining of the season and "hopefully" he could fight with them.

In fact Gasly and Hartley can hope to make a good season, the Honda engine look reliable and a bit more powerful than last year but could it be enough to beat Force Inida and Williams ? I'm not sure...The indian team is a little bit of a disappointment during this test, Checo Perez said that the team will not be at the lead of the midfield from the begining of the season. There line up could be the avantage of the team compare to Williams who's looking as competitiv as Force India.

In conclusion, Sauber will certainly be the last team on the grid despite a big improvement with a new engine and a completely new chassis.

In my opinion, the 2018 pecking order will look like that with the gap (more or less).

[dans79]

Since the beginning of the 2nd week of testing, we know from Sky Sport and others that the gap between the medium and soft is about 0.6 sec, the gap between all the others compound is about 0.2 sec per lap. With this information we can have a better understanding of the time sheet.

Your gaps between compounds need to be revised, as Pirelli has provided some information on this subject.

see this post for details.
forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=27067&start=1980#p747007

[GM7]

Since the beginning of the 2nd week of testing, we know from Sky Sport and others that the gap between the medium and soft is about 0.6 sec, the gap between all the others compound is about 0.2 sec per lap. With this information we can have a better understanding of the time sheet.

Your gaps between compounds need to be revised, as Pirelli has provided some information on this subject.

see this post for details.
forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=27067&start=1980#p747007

Thx very much i'm gonna edit my post soon as possible !

[godlameroso]

Last year we knew the Mercedes could do the race distance with 10kg less fuel than the others. 10kg is worth .3 seconds which was the gap to Ferrari more or less. The engine advantage Mercedes has over the others at this stage is fuel consumption and reliability than just out and out power. Perhaps the others can match the power, but just not as long. In other words the reliability and efficiency take a toll. Renault is considering doing 4 engines for perhaps this reason.

[Phil]

Do you have any link to that? For what it’s worth, Mercedes struggled quite a bit at the beginning for being overweight due to going longwheelbase etc. It took them quite some time just to get to the minimum weight and was well documented. So even if they could run with 10kg less fuel doesnt mean they were actually lighter than Ferrari?

[godlameroso]

Source for what, the fuel levels? I remember reading a few saying they only took like 82kg to do Mexico where Ferrari was on 95 or something.

[shryr]

1. Dignified BMW
2. Energy drink
3. Fiat on steroids
4. Baguette
5. Kimoa
6. Team Freedom
7. That pink car
8. Stroll's private sandbox
9. Energy drink in Italian
10. Clean

[GM7]

With this time sheet i found an other pecking order (a bit more representativ) :

[FelixAustria]

Here's what German AMuS think after Barcelona testing:

1. (1) Mercedes
2. (2) Red Bull-Renault
3. (3) Ferrari
4. (6) HaasF1-Ferrari
5. (4) Renault
6. (7) Toro Rosso-Honda
7. (4) McLaren-Renault
8. (7) Force India-Mercedes
9. (7) Williams-Mercedes
10. (10.) Sauber-Ferrari

In brackets I added the pecking order of AMus after the first test week.

source: https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... ite-woche/