Silly Season 2018/2019

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
ScottB
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by ScottB » Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:35 am

NathanOlder wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:26 am
So what is going on with the Merc contracts. Why no announcements? Lauda said they are both definitely staying, so why not just get it done
Announce at Hockenheim maybe?

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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by NathanOlder » Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:15 pm

Ah i didn't think of that. Could be ?
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ESPImperium
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by ESPImperium » Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:33 pm

I heard a wild rumour that Red Bull were placing Buemi in STR from Spa onward, however that would mean he would be racing for 3 Japanese marques in Toyota in WEC, Nissan in FE and Honda in F1. I could see someone being a bit but hurt here.

Mercedes, expect to see 2 year deals for Hamilton @ $55m without bonuses, and Bottas for $18m without bonuses at Hockenhiem, Petronas will sign an additional one year till end of 2020 as their deal expires next year.

Ferrari will do likewise in Monza, Seb to add a year and increase his salary to €45m without bonuses and LeClerc till end of 2020 for a deal of €2m for the first year and the second year pay dependant on performance in his first year at Ferrari, however he will have a large bonus for a constructors title, basically for him to play the team game and beat Bottas.

Red Bull will probably stay with what they have now, however the McLaren interest in Riccardo will raise his pay, and probably with the equivalency formula that is alleged to be in Verstappens contract, will raise both drivers to around €22m per season.

Renault will keep Hulkenberg and will have the choice of retaining Sainz or picking up Ocon, both on loan from Red Bull and Mercedes respectively. My guess is they will go for Ocon.

Haas will keep Magnussen, however Grosjean is gone, replaced by Perez would be my guess.

Force India, this will be a mess until the sale is done, however the owners have allegedly put the team for sale for $225m, offers have been brokered for $100m. Team may enter administration before that. Id suggest this team may go for Nicholas Latifi for the pay driver and George Russell to get a cheaper Mercedes supply. Id expect the new Force India owners pursue a Haas model and get as many parts from Mercedes as they can.

McLaren, Alonso has another year due to Toyota not wanting to let him race for Honda in Indy, his Indy dream will become a reality in 2020. I can see the team letting Vandoorne go picking up Sainz may be the experienced route but id say if Lando Norris picks up his game in F2, he will be chosen. Renault will be better next year due to less Red Bull diva demands on the packaging, and McLaren helping them on the ERS front.

Toro Rosso will keep Gasly, but Hartley will be gone. Second year of Honda will be important as they will be pushed harder, but they will need a good second driver, id expect to see them now revisit Buemi or the new FE champion Vergne for this seat as the next generation of Red Bull Juniors are 2-3 years away.

Sauber will keep Erickson, however a Ferrari reserve driver will pop up, or a driver that has been let go to come in like Vandoorne or a F2 hot shoe like Markelov - That guy needs a F1 car.

Williams, this is a quandary, Stroll will stay, who will replace the pointless (literally) Sirotkin, id suggest that if Sainz doesn't get in at Renault or McLaren he will be in here. However if McLaren want to loan out Norris Williams will take him on, but don't be surprised if the marketing department at Williams get Kubica as they wanted last year, he will be in for 2019. Id suggest that Fairytails do exist and Kubica will get his seat as the Engineers at Williams want a experienced driver in the car.

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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by FrukostScones » Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:14 pm

ALO to Renault pretty certain with that new FW.
Finishing races is important, but racing is more important. ...

Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:25 pm

FrukostScones wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:14 pm
ALO to Renault pretty certain with that new FW.
you're basing driver contracts on a front wing?

pretty sure that with Abiteboul @ Renault, Alonso won't go there. That is a hazardous mixture.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by FrukostScones » Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:10 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:25 pm
FrukostScones wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:14 pm
ALO to Renault pretty certain with that new FW.
you're basing driver contracts on a front wing?

pretty sure that with Abiteboul @ Renault, Alonso won't go there. That is a hazardous mixture.
FW is the most important part of a car. :D
If they can manufacture a nice one ALO might be tempted. ; )
So HAM was aproached by rival Teams... But their offers were declined...
So it wasnt Ferrari.... Who would turn down a Ferrari contract?
Anyway STR thinks a switch to FINDIA could help his ambitions... LOL just do it. Williams will then definetly become Merc B Team with Wehrlein on board. Merc never would put money in STR FINDIA. Just my thoughts...
Finishing races is important, but racing is more important. ...

adrianjordan
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by adrianjordan » Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:21 pm

FrukostScones wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:10 pm
Who would turn down a Ferrari contract?
Lots of people. They're not everyone's favourite team and many people wouldn't want to drive for them...
In 2007 I had the chance to go to a meet-and-greet with an F1 test driver. I decided not to as I didn't think he'd even amount to much...he was the BMW Sauber test driver and his name was Sebastian Vettel...

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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by adrianjordan » Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:22 pm

Also, Adrian Newey!!
In 2007 I had the chance to go to a meet-and-greet with an F1 test driver. I decided not to as I didn't think he'd even amount to much...he was the BMW Sauber test driver and his name was Sebastian Vettel...

Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:27 pm

Stroll to Force India or Mclaren. I don't think the latter will happen though. Force India is a good possibility, and a wise one. FI is able to achieve amazing things with relatively little funding.
They have the BWT sponsorship, and a big injection from Stroll SR. would do a lot i'd say. Meanwhile, Perez might go to Haas - I think that would be a good fit, and open up a spot @ Force India.
There are somehow still talks about 'Rich Energy' buying into/buying Force India. Might still happen, though i'm wondering if that will actually happen. Then again, if Daddy Stroll could make a good deal, around the table with Rich Energy, and the team itself, there might come some good out of it - financially.
Ocon surely will stay another year, so it would be Rich Stroll F1 Team, powered by Money. Lol.

I don't think Stroll would go to Mclaren, they are only heading towards Williams position if nothing changes.

In either case, it's gonna be another big blow for Williams. No more Stroll money in 2019, no more Martini money in 2019........and still acting like nothing's going on. Gawd. give Claire the boot, come on.

As for Hamilton - I'd like to think it has been Ferrari. With Kimi on the verge of getting the boot, i'd say that's quite probable. Especially if you concider Ferrari's main opponent is Hamilton, in the Mercedes. Not Bottas. So it would be in their own benefit to grab Hamilton. Hamilton out would result in either Alonso or Ocon @ Merc. Alonso could be a danger, but Ocon definately not. However i'm doubtfull Hamilton would have renounced a Ferrari opportunity, especially right now.

It would be an interesting end to his career, he'd get to wear Red, he'd be a huge benefit for Ferrari, and i'm sure he'd relish the challenge.

Which makes me doubt it's gonna be Ferrari - leaving to me, only RedBull open. It was a topteam, so Renault is out of the question. So is Mclaren.
DannyRic might leave, so another opening. Concidering the combination, i think that indeed wouldn't work for either of them, and would make it rather probable that was the 'contact'.
I'm pretty sure that with Danny open, RB will concider any topdriver, so i'm not at all negative towards the idea that they would have simply contacted Lewis, if only it would be for show.
Probably the idea would come from Aston Martin, i'd say. That might 'work' as a combo. I don't see RedBull and Hamilton as such a reasonable combo, and i'm also sure Honda is a huge reason why in any case, Lewis would say no anyway.
So i'm gonna go with RedBull.

Anyway, Hamilton with Merc another 2 years, Bottas another year, Ricciardo wants a 1-year deal with RedBull, i'm pretty sure that'll happen in the end though.

so 2019:

Mercedes: Hamilton & Bottas
RedBull : Ricciardo & Verstappen
Ferrari : Vettel & Alonso (WOW!)
Mclaren : Raikkonen & Norris
Force India : Ocon & Stroll
Renault : Sainz & Hulkenberg
Haas : Perez & Magnussen
Toro Rosso : Gasly & Matsushita
Sauber : Leclerc & Ericsson
Williams : Sirotkin & Kubica
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:36 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:27 pm
As for Hamilton - I'd like to think it has been Ferrari. With Kimi on the verge of getting the boot, i'd say that's quite probable. Especially if you concider Ferrari's main opponent is Hamilton, in the Mercedes. Not Bottas. So it would be in their own benefit to grab Hamilton. Hamilton out would result in either Alonso or Ocon @ Merc. Alonso could be a danger, but Ocon definately not. However i'm doubtfull Hamilton would have renounced a Ferrari opportunity, especially right now.
It's funny, right before your post, I was entertaining posting something very similar. The 'what-if-Ferrari-offered-Hamilton-a-seat'-scenario. I got pretty far with it. Hamilton, on a good day, might be between a tenth and 4 tenths faster than Bottas (I said on a good day), so if Ferrari did offer Hamilton a seat, they'd hurt Mercedes by that amount and get the pleasure of entertaining the two top drivers of the past 2 season inside their team. Assuming it's a question of management, they could be easily the team to beat for both championships, while Mercedes comes to terms with a loss of their star driver.

But then there's Alonso. As you put it, Mercedes would have to offer Alonso a seat. And then they'd be back at where they are - so in the end, it would be Ferrari with two star drivers and 9 drivers championships among them and a Mercedes that might be just as strong as before with Alonso in it.

So in the end, it might not be a win/win, but a lose/lose. They'd be paying way more money for two star drivers but still might not win either championship. I think Ferrari is smart enough to see what 'offering Hamilton' a seat might unfold (Alonso at Mercedes), so perhaps it is wiser for them to focus on Vettel & Leclerc, let Hamilton stay at Mercedes and Alonso to a struggling McLaren team where he is no threat to anyone.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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ScottB
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by ScottB » Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:22 pm

I can't wait for Alonso to retire so we can stop reading how he's going to end up at team x constantly 😝

I suspect the team to approach Hamilton was Mclaren. If they went for Danny Ric, and may have went for Kimi, it's clear they are shopping around for an Alonso replacement. Does kind of sum up their management issues, as why bother? No chance he was taking that! Can't see it being anyone else, Ferrari taking Le Clerc was reported widely, Renault likely don't have pockets deep enough, and Red Bull wouldn't go out with their stable, so it could only have been Mclaren for me.

Which, along with the rumoured offers to Ricciardo and Kimi, suggests either they expect Alonso to go, or would have retracted any offer to him had they got an agreement elsewhere, as no way would they have lined up Alonso alongside Lewis or Daniel. Apart from anything else I doubt they could have afforded that line up.

As to what happens now, I still think a one year deal to cover Alonso till his Toyota contract is up, enabling him to head for Indy to drive in a Honda powered team is the most probable outcome, unless he decides he'd rather do full time WEC.

Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Phil » Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:46 pm

I agree, Alonso isn't on anyone's wanted list, besides McLaren. Renault have a pretty good baseline with Sainz and I think this has increased Hulkenbergs worth. Verstappen was one of the stars of F1 and Sainz wasn't far behind if at all - so, Hulkenberg must be pretty good himself. Alonso might be better than both, but by how much and at what cost?

So I am still a firm believer that Alonso isn't going anywhere, besides straight out of F1. He won't win another championship because all teams that could win one, don't want/need him. Renault may be the best-of-the-rest team to be at, but even they are far from winning.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Manoah2u
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Manoah2u » Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:15 pm

So......LeClerc to Ferrari.

There's no way Kimster will go to Sauber.
If he doesn't stop driving in F1, his only 'reasonable' option i'd say is Mclaren;

It would be good for Mclaren; an experienced, fast driver. He'll be reunited to Alonso.
If Alonso leaves, atleast they'll have an experienced and fast driver, to fill the gap Fernando would leave.

Ricciardo is now forced to stay @ RedBull. Mercedes is shut, no seats available. Alonso can thus only stay @ Mclaren, or end his F1 career - which i don't believe he'll do yet.
His only option is to perhaps go to Renault but even that i concider doubtfull. If Fernando goes to Renault, Sainz would go to Mclaren. I don't think Sainz going to Mclaren sounds unbelievable, but it would not be a real step forward at this moment, and i would also doubt whether it would make much sense replacing Sainz with Alonso. Renault is not in a privilidged position, so there's not much to offer or to recieve right now. 2 Spanierds @ Renault sounds vastly unbelievable too imho, not impossible though. It would be interesting to see though.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by Big Tea » Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:29 pm

Manoah2u wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:15 pm
So......LeClerc to Ferrari.

There's no way Kimster will go to Sauber.
If he doesn't stop driving in F1, his only 'reasonable' option i'd say is Mclaren;

It would be good for Mclaren; an experienced, fast driver. He'll be reunited to Alonso.
If Alonso leaves, atleast they'll have an experienced and fast driver, to fill the gap Fernando would leave.

Ricciardo is now forced to stay @ RedBull. Mercedes is shut, no seats available. Alonso can thus only stay @ Mclaren, or end his F1 career - which i don't believe he'll do yet.
His only option is to perhaps go to Renault but even that i concider doubtfull. If Fernando goes to Renault, Sainz would go to Mclaren. I don't think Sainz going to Mclaren sounds unbelievable, but it would not be a real step forward at this moment, and i would also doubt whether it would make much sense replacing Sainz with Alonso. Renault is not in a privilidged position, so there's not much to offer or to recieve right now. 2 Spanierds @ Renault sounds vastly unbelievable too imho, not impossible though. It would be interesting to see though.
He could always do something unthinkable like go to Williams. If he just likes driving and being in the F1 set, it would pass a year for him, he may even enjoy it.

Also, Kimi won Monaco 2005, he could go for the triple.
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

Post by munudeges » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:42 am

FrukostScones wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:10 pm
So it wasnt Ferrari.... Who would turn down a Ferrari contract?
Quite a number of drivers. It's been pretty clear for some time that Raikkonen is not going to get an opportunity to win in that team even when he gets into one, and some of the things they've done with him strategy-wise have been damn odd. That will all have been duly noted by many and if you're a driver going in there who wants to win you'd want some *big* guarantees.