Silly Season 2018/2019

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Jolle
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Phil wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:27 pm
Contrary to popular belief, I don't believe in this concept of number 1 or number 2 drivers being stipulated in any current f1 driver contracts. If Kimi for whatever reason would be leading the WDC by better on track performance, do you think Ferrari would go out and tell him to slow down so that Vettel as the better driver on paper could win if Kimi is their best chance at securing a drivers championship? What difference does it make if we are talking about Kimi, Alonso or any other driver? The on-track results are what count, not the salary one is earning.

Perhaps one should ask what is more important to Ferrari? Winning world-championships or making sure their 40 million per year driver is happy?

As for losing points; That one is debatable. They'd only be losing points if the wins are distributed evenly among each other. It could just as well be likely that they are more likely to secure more consistent 1&2s with the better car and that the majority of points goes to the better driver.

Either way, I think there are pro's and con's for both scenarios; Having a fast and a slower driver has its benefits, but so does having two equally competitive ones. I'm not convinced one is clear-cut better than the other.
To maximise your (star) driver, you need your other driver to finish just behind him in every race. Raikkonen is doing that very well, so is Bottas.

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Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Jolle, seriously, did that win them the championship last year? No. If they fail to capitalize again, this year, will that still be sound logic?

There some considerations at play here;

- is that star driver as good as they think he is?
- could he be better if under more pressure?
- might they have already won with a potentially better driver (Alonso)?

I am not suggesting Alonso is better than Vettel. He could be. We’ll never know unless they drive in the same team. Obviously, Vettel is already on a long term contract, so his seart isnt up for debate. I simply dont get your (or anyone elses reasoning) that because Ferrari already has Vettel, they are unwilling to entertaining signing another competitive driver. Ferrari already did that when they had Alonso and replaced Massa, and Mercedes did that when they signed Bottas.

In both cases, both drivers (Kimi & Bottas) turned out to be slower than their team mates, but i doubt they were signed with the intention of being number 2s. They were signed as conpetitive drivers with every right to win. The number 2 status is a result of their driving and to some degree circumstance, not because the teams signed them for that purpose.

Ferrari wants to win. With arguably the fastest car on the grid, they should be. Personally, i think if this year doesnt go to plan, all other considerations will be secondary and depending on why and how, some changes will be made. Unless they commit before then to either Leclerc or another year with Kimi.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Big Tea
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Phil wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:08 pm
Jolle, seriously, did that win them the championship last year? No. If they fail to capitalize again, this year, will that still be sound logic?

There some considerations at play here;

- is that star driver as good as they think he is?
- could he be better if under more pressure?
- might they have already won with a potentially better driver (Alonso)?

I am not suggesting Alonso is better than Vettel. He could be. We’ll never know unless they drive in the same team. Obviously, Vettel is already on a long term contract, so his seart isnt up for debate. I simply dont get your (or anyone elses reasoning) that because Ferrari already has Vettel, they are unwilling to entertaining signing another competitive driver. Ferrari already did that when they had Alonso and replaced Massa, and Mercedes did that when they signed Bottas.

In both cases, both drivers (Kimi & Bottas) turned out to be slower than their team mates, but i doubt they were signed with the intention of being number 2s. They were signed as conpetitive drivers with every right to win. The number 2 status is a result of their driving and to some degree circumstance, not because the teams signed them for that purpose.

Ferrari wants to win. With arguably the fastest car on the grid, they should be. Personally, i think if this year doesnt go to plan, all other considerations will be secondary and depending on why and how, some changes will be made. Unless they commit before then to either Leclerc or another year with Kimi.
What I was getting at, trying not to come straight out with it, is, would you expect Seb to throw a tantrum?
He is a very very good driver when things are going his way, but does seem prone to throw a strop if things do not favour him.

As I said in the earlier post, when he was kingpin at Red Bull things were fine. Once Ricciardo was at his heels he let things slip. He was not as good a driver then as he had been or is at Ferrari. Some thought he was backing off due to a clause in his contract and he did not want wins, but I do not see that as being 'him'.

If I was the decision maker at Ferrari I would favour Kimi with Alonso rather than Seb, who I think is the better driver.
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Jolle
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Phil wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:08 pm
Jolle, seriously, did that win them the championship last year? No. If they fail to capitalize again, this year, will that still be sound logic?

There some considerations at play here;

- is that star driver as good as they think he is?
- could he be better if under more pressure?
- might they have already won with a potentially better driver (Alonso)?

I am not suggesting Alonso is better than Vettel. He could be. We’ll never know unless they drive in the same team. Obviously, Vettel is already on a long term contract, so his seart isnt up for debate. I simply dont get your (or anyone elses reasoning) that because Ferrari already has Vettel, they are unwilling to entertaining signing another competitive driver. Ferrari already did that when they had Alonso and replaced Massa, and Mercedes did that when they signed Bottas.

In both cases, both drivers (Kimi & Bottas) turned out to be slower than their team mates, but i doubt they were signed with the intention of being number 2s. They were signed as conpetitive drivers with every right to win. The number 2 status is a result of their driving and to some degree circumstance, not because the teams signed them for that purpose.

Ferrari wants to win. With arguably the fastest car on the grid, they should be. Personally, i think if this year doesnt go to plan, all other considerations will be secondary and depending on why and how, some changes will be made. Unless they commit before then to either Leclerc or another year with Kimi.
No he didn't win, Hamilton & Mercedes were better, had less misfortune and had less crashes.

It's not a sure way to be champion but it is, when you have two drivers within a tenth, a way to loose a championship. Look at the history. McLaren didn't thought that Hamilton was so quick in his first year. With that car Alo should have become WC. Of course '86 is a prime example, 81 as well. If the ferrari was as good in '14-'16 as it was now, Vettel even might caught a WC from Mercedes. Now in the championship you can see it with RedBull, two almost equal driver, both winning races and still there are a few non-race winners in front of them in the standings.

If you think Ferrari's problem is Vettel, Vettel should go and they should hire someone better. Combining two top drivers doesn't work.

By the way, both Alo and Vet don't drive their best with an (almost) equally good teammate, they both work better when everything is build around them, including their teammates. If not, they get nasty, cheap tricks and put themselves outside the team. Vettel did this at RedBull very visual and Alonso at Mercedes-McLaren and later on at lesser extent at Ferrari.

But to this year, Vettel might not be leading (anymore), but he would if Rosberg was still sitting in the other Mercedes.

kptaylor
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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For Ferrari do you think may want two top drivers when Liberty changes the payout and takes away the special Ferrari legacy payment? Wouldn't the need to place high or win the Constructors Championship be more important?

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Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Jolle wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:33 pm
It's not a sure way to be champion but it is, when you have two drivers within a tenth, a way to loose a championship. Look at the history. McLaren didn't thought that Hamilton was so quick in his first year. With that car Alo should have become WC.
The solution is simple and easily solvable as manageable: team-orders. Worked at Ferrari under numerous occasions with Vettel/Kimi, worked at Mercedes between Hamilton/Rosberg, works at Force-India between Perez/Ocon, at RB between Max/Ricciardo. As i said, it boils down to a simple employer/enployee relationship. If a driver doesnt want to play ball, it’s easy to sit him out for a race. Worked at Mercedes, why shouldnt it at Ferrari?

Note: i am really not suggesting Ferrari should get two competitive drivers and let anarchy reign. I am saying they could and if/before things go havoc, they could step in and manage accordingly. Something McLaren didnt/couldn’t do in 2007 because one of their drivers was going rogue and team orders were not allowed.


Jolle wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:33 pm
If you think Ferrari's problem is Vettel, Vettel should go and they should hire someone better. Combining two top drivers doesn't work.
Obviously, that wont happen, given the contract Vettel has. I am entertaining the idea that Ferrari values winning a championship above all else and in a hypothetical scenario of signing Alonso alongside Vettel, what could the worst be that happens? And would it be impossible for the team to manage? You are arguing it is, but i am yet to see it as an impossible feat when other teams before have managed that just fine.

You argue as if having two competitive drivers is bad and the scenario of Kimi as this ideal number 2 driver as being the ideal case for Ferrari. Well is it? How often has Kimi taken points off Hamilton when Vettel won? How often has Kimi stepped up and won when the team needed him to?

Arguably, Bottas is way more competitive than Kimi is, yet with 3 wins last year (times he took points away from Hamilton too), Mercedes still managed to win both championships with 3 races to go. Perhaps this logic of signing a number 1 and number 2 driver isnt that sound after all? Because when you do exactly that, instead of finishing 1&2 in the right order, the number 2 driver rarely steps up to the challenge.

Hypothetically, with the car Ferrari currently has, i’m inclined to think that with both Alonso and Vettel driving there, they would likely have 1&2s more often than a win here and there but their 2nd driver somewhere behind their closest rival.



A simple math example:

Assumption; 20 races, two equally strong teams fighting for wins. 10 races team A is fastest, other 10 races team B is quicker. Team A employes a fast No1 driver and a slower No2 driver. Team B has two equally competitive drivers.

Outcome:
Both Team A and Team B wins 10 races. Team A with a No1 driver secures all wins for his team, where as with Team B and due to the competitive nature of both drivers, they split the wins and 2rd/3th places equally.

Result:
Team A, Driver 1: 10 wins (10*25=250) + 10 3rd places (10*15=150) = 400 points.

Team B, Driver 1&2: 5 wins (5*25=125) + 10 2nd places (10*18=180), 5 3rd places (5*15=75) = 380 points

The underlying assumption is that Team A’s No2 driver fails to be fast enough to take away points of either drivers of Team B. Thus, every time Team A wins, the drivers of Team B are right behind. Because Team B is overall more competitive, they split all wins, but also take away points of Team A when being in the quicker car.

As you see, in this very simplistic math example, Team A barely wins it by 20 points, despite having more than double the wins of either driver of Team B. Arguably, i’d rate Team B stronger as having two stronger drivers gives them more options to influence their chances by use of team orders. By using team orders, they could easily make up that point deficit, whereas Team A pretty much needs to capitalize on those 10 wins by their number 1 driver.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Redragon
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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I don't know how strong Vettel contract is but after pushing for team orders and doing such big mistake after I don't think he has much to negotiate his status right now and stop the welcoming of other big driver to the team. If he doesn't win next race. he is gonna have a stressful summer break because he knows Italy will be over him

alexx_88
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Phil, I understand your point, but my opinion is that the best setup when there is more than one team battling for the WDC is what Ferrari and Mercedes have right now. One driver who's 1-2 tenths in front of the other.

If they're too evenly matched (as in your example), they'll trade wins at the tracks where you have the better car or podiums at the others. And that's on the very optimistic prospect of being able to cleanly control their on-track and off-track battles. In your example, even without contact or any problems due to racing at close quarters, they still fail to win the WDC by a long way and, arguably, those two top drivers will begin to lose motivation or, even worse, push harder in order to get the edge over their teammate and have a chance to win the WDC. I think it might work with a select few of the top drivers, I'm thinking Ric or Button would play the team game without serious repercussions later. My 2c.

ab_f1
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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If it's simply putting pressure on Seb wouldn't it be better to simply give Kimi free hand and complete backing for few races?
Given opportunity Alonso may even drive with current Ferrari for free, but he will ensure the team cannot sit him out.
Seb acknowledged that he and Alonso do not speak which will only harm team development. Plus if they end up clashing with each other, irrespective of what team does, leaves Ferrari with little options.

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Big Tea
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Phil wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:20 am
Jolle wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:33 pm
It's not a sure way to be champion but it is, when you have two drivers within a tenth, a way to loose a championship. Look at the history. McLaren didn't thought that Hamilton was so quick in his first year. With that car Alo should have become WC.
The solution is simple and easily solvable as manageable: team-orders. Worked at Ferrari under numerous occasions with Vettel/Kimi, worked at Mercedes between Hamilton/Rosberg, works at Force-India between Perez/Ocon, at RB between Max/Ricciardo. As i said, it boils down to a simple employer/enployee relationship. If a driver doesnt want to play ball, it’s easy to sit him out for a race. Worked at Mercedes, why shouldnt it at Ferrari?

Note: i am really not suggesting Ferrari should get two competitive drivers and let anarchy reign. I am saying they could and if/before things go havoc, they could step in and manage accordingly. Something McLaren didnt/couldn’t do in 2007 because one of their drivers was going rogue and team orders were not allowed.


Jolle wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:33 pm
If you think Ferrari's problem is Vettel, Vettel should go and they should hire someone better. Combining two top drivers doesn't work.
Obviously, that wont happen, given the contract Vettel has. I am entertaining the idea that Ferrari values winning a championship above all else and in a hypothetical scenario of signing Alonso alongside Vettel, what could the worst be that happens? And would it be impossible for the team to manage? You are arguing it is, but i am yet to see it as an impossible feat when other teams before have managed that just fine.

You argue as if having two competitive drivers is bad and the scenario of Kimi as this ideal number 2 driver as being the ideal case for Ferrari. Well is it? How often has Kimi taken points off Hamilton when Vettel won? How often has Kimi stepped up and won when the team needed him to?

Arguably, Bottas is way more competitive than Kimi is, yet with 3 wins last year (times he took points away from Hamilton too), Mercedes still managed to win both championships with 3 races to go. Perhaps this logic of signing a number 1 and number 2 driver isnt that sound after all? Because when you do exactly that, instead of finishing 1&2 in the right order, the number 2 driver rarely steps up to the challenge.

Hypothetically, with the car Ferrari currently has, i’m inclined to think that with both Alonso and Vettel driving there, they would likely have 1&2s more often than a win here and there but their 2nd driver somewhere behind their closest rival.



A simple math example:

Assumption; 20 races, two equally strong teams fighting for wins. 10 races team A is fastest, other 10 races team B is quicker. Team A employes a fast No1 driver and a slower No2 driver. Team B has two equally competitive drivers.

Outcome:
Both Team A and Team B wins 10 races. Team A with a No1 driver secures all wins for his team, where as with Team B and due to the competitive nature of both drivers, they split the wins and 2rd/3th places equally.

Result:
Team A, Driver 1: 10 wins (10*25=250) + 10 3rd places (10*15=150) = 400 points.

Team B, Driver 1&2: 5 wins (5*25=125) + 10 2nd places (10*18=180), 5 3rd places (5*15=75) = 380 points

The underlying assumption is that Team A’s No2 driver fails to be fast enough to take away points of either drivers of Team B. Thus, every time Team A wins, the drivers of Team B are right behind. Because Team B is overall more competitive, they split all wins, but also take away points of Team A when being in the quicker car.

As you see, in this very simplistic math example, Team A barely wins it by 20 points, despite having more than double the wins of either driver of Team B. Arguably, i’d rate Team B stronger as having two stronger drivers gives them more options to influence their chances by use of team orders. By using team orders, they could easily make up that point deficit, whereas Team A pretty much needs to capitalize on those 10 wins by their number 1 driver.
But the above example does not include the race where Seb Takes off Alonso while fighting for the lead, so they are down 43 points for that :D .

That is the only part I see as a problem, Even if team orders are given, at that point the screwed driver does not have the same hunger to drive as they know then the other driver has been chosen (for this year only maybe)

The 'problem' with 2 top drivers is they are, and want to be, top drivers. they will either fight tooth and nail, of say bugger it, I am not going to be allowed to keep my position anyway.

I am hammering needlessly here and becoming a pita, so will a knowledge I am nit picking and let it go as I am only calling it from instinct and in all possibility they would work fine.
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NathanOlder
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:16 am
Even Schumacher and Senna made costly mistakes, let's not get too ahead of ourselves now.
indeed, just curious to know your opinion,

If Lewis and Seb swapped teams for 2017 & 2018 how do you think that would have panned out last year and the standings currently this year ?
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Jolle
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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If, for some weird reason, SEB and ALO end up in one team. Both have a history that they can’t “do” team orders and like to use the radio as a political outlet.

They would need to put several lawyers on the pit wall.

Even LEC next to VET is a risk, look how he reacted to RIC...

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Phil
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Alonso is an entirely different situation; Back in 2007, team-orders were disallowed and due to alleged favoritism and equality, the FIA put someone inside McLaren's garage! And I'm willing to believe that Alonso has matured quite a bit since then.

Again, every team it comes down to a simple employer/employee relationship. Hamilton/Rosberg was difficult to manage yet the team managed. There's even the case where Hamilton last year gave back a position to Bottas. It's all a question of what is defined when the contract is signed and before the race. Mercedes has made it clear many times that the team comes first. As for Vettel; I clearly remember a call being issued in 2014 to Vettel to let by Ricciardo.

It's a myth that two competitive F1 champions can not drive alongside with the team in control. It's all a matter of how the teams manages it. Some teams have done that well historically, some less. The rules in that regard have also changed too, making it easier for teams to employ unpopular team-orders.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Jolle
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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“Multi 147”

:D

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NathanOlder
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Re: Silly Season 2018/2019

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Wouldn't it be Multi 145

What happens if RedBull try it again with their current drivers. Would get a little confusing
Multi 333 or Multi 333 ??? :lol:
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