2018 season

[PlatinumZealot]

Ferrari with the upper hand these last few races.

Mercedes down on power and low speed traction.

Monza
Singapore
Russia
Mexico
Brazil
Abu Dhabi
To Ferrari

Japan
USA
To Mercedes.

That is 6 Vs 2
Mercedes are gonna lose this championship without the rain god interferring.

Possible rain Can make it 3 vs 5.
Monza
Singapore
Brazil

[PlatinumZealot]

Ferrari gave Monza away.

5 tracks out of 7 are still theirs to win.

[TAG]

We've seen this year there are no sure weekends for either team. The driver and the weather are the biggest factor, Ferrari has an advantage clearly on paper as far as the car is concerned but there's enough Lewis to cover the difference. Factor in Red Bull sticking their nose in a couple of those circuits and it's all up in the air still.

[NathanOlder]

Anyone have a chart with the current PU element usage ?

With 6 races to go.

[Jolle]

Anyone have a chart with the current PU element usage ?

With 6 races to go.

https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula- ... rmation-13

this gives the most up to date info on GB and PU elements.

[Clearhooter]

OK... After Singapore, explain the "new" FIA rules to me .

So... if two drivers are in the back of the field and are fighting for position and one is on the very verge of passing the other and one of the front placed drivers is coming up on them. It is now necessary for the driver who is in the lesser position, about to pass, to curtail his pass and let the driver who is behind them but leading them in position around both drivers who are in a lesser position ?

Is it now OK for Mercedes to hold up the field in order to extend one of their drivers lead. But no one else has that option ?

I give Perez the "A-hole of the 2018 season" award. And Ocon gets the boot? He gets the "2018, Life Ain't Fair" award.

[NathanOlder]

Anyone have a chart with the current PU element usage ?

With 6 races to go.

https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula- ... rmation-13

this gives the most up to date info on GB and PU elements.

Nice, thanks mate.

[roon]

I see Alonso has scored 50 of McLaren's 52 points. Where are the other two from? Do they have a second driver this year?

[Bill_Kar]

Well, if Monza was 50-50, Singapore is on Mercedes. So, should we change our view on what track belongs to whom?
Sochi is not definitely Ferrari's land from what we know now.
USA still swings to Mercedes?

[PlatinumZealot]

Ferrari gave away Singapore.

I felt Vettel could have snatched pole if his tyres were prepared properly and I felt Ferrari could have done better with the tyre selection and pit stop strategy.


3 out of 6 remaining tracks were Ferrari's to lose have now shifted to being almost fifty fifty.

Not good news with the 40 point gap and Mercedes finding a solution to their traction problems.

Outlook:
Russia - Ferrari now 50/50
Suzuka - Mercedes
USA - Mercedes
Mexico - Ferrari now 50/50
Brazil - Ferrari now 50/50
Abudahbi - Ferrari now 50/50

Too little too late Ferrari!

[NathanOlder]

I see Alonso has scored 50 of McLaren's 52 points. Where are the other two from? Do they have a second driver this year?

Alonso has indeed scored 50 points, but Stoffel has 8

[Jolle]

If Russia still has that super sweet tarmac, it probably go to Ferrari, USA is a Hamilton track, Suzuka has been very kind to Vettel in the past, might be close. Brazil always been Hamilton's worst track for some reason and the rest... flip of the coin, who will get their tires work the best.

[Phil]

Russia is going to be really tricky, as arguably, the pole-setter is at a severe disadvantage and the guys could exploit the tow in order to get ahead. I would argue this is even a bigger factor there than it was in Spa.

Anyway, since this is the 2018 season thread, lets use it for some championship permutations:

Post Singapore, Hamilton now has a 40 points lead over Sebastian Vettel, with 6 races and 150 points still up for grabs. To illustrate, the championship is over when

After Socchi, anyone has a gap of over 125 points [mathematically impossible].
After Suzuka, anyone has a gap of over 100 points [mathematically impossible].
After USA, anyone has a gap of over 75 points.
After Mexico, anyone has a gap of over 50 points.
After Brazil, anyone has a gap of over 25 points.

Last year, post Singapore with an identical numbers of races left, the gap was 28 points. Then Malaysia happened (where Ferrari were favorites), but ended up being less damaging than it could have, given Vettel still ended up 4th vs Hamilton only 2nd (giving up the lead to Max), seeing another points loss of 6 points to Hamilton (34 points). What was really damaging last year however, was Japan, where Vettel retired with a faulty sparkplug, losing another 25 points to Hamilton that sealed the championship. Even in the most optimistic outlook for Hamilton, I don't see this happening. Despite the huge point lead, I don't quite see things working out that smoothly.

Having said that, I think Ferrari still probably have some kind of advantage on the engine front that could just see them edge the wins here and there, just ahead of Hamilton. A DNF for Hamilton and the championship could be wide open again. There's still plenty of points left and a lot can happen quickly (as last year showed).

[Fulcrum]

Ferrari - i.e. Vettel - need a 1-2, or a messy race from Hamilton to get back in it. If Hamilton were to DNF once, with Vettel having perfect reliability to season's end, then its too close to call (imo).

[Jolle]

Russia is going to be really tricky, as arguably, the pole-setter is at a severe disadvantage and the guys could exploit the tow in order to get ahead. I would argue this is even a bigger factor there than it was in Spa.

Anyway, since this is the 2018 season thread, lets use it for some championship permutations:

Post Singapore, Hamilton now has a 40 points lead over Sebastian Vettel, with 6 races and 150 points still up for grabs. To illustrate, the championship is over when

After Socchi, anyone has a gap of over 125 points [mathematically impossible].
After Suzuka, anyone has a gap of over 100 points [mathematically impossible].
After USA, anyone has a gap of over 75 points.
After Mexico, anyone has a gap of over 50 points.
After Brazil, anyone has a gap of over 25 points.

Last year, post Singapore with an identical numbers of races left, the gap was 28 points. Then Malaysia happened (where Ferrari were favorites), but ended up being less damaging than it could have, given Vettel still ended up 4th vs Hamilton only 2nd (giving up the lead to Max), seeing another points loss of 6 points to Hamilton (34 points). What was really damaging last year however, was Japan, where Vettel retired with a faulty sparkplug, losing another 25 points to Hamilton that sealed the championship. Even in the most optimistic outlook for Hamilton, I don't see this happening. Despite the huge point lead, I don't quite see things working out that smoothly.

Having said that, I think Ferrari still probably have some kind of advantage on the engine front that could just see them edge the wins here and there, just ahead of Hamilton. A DNF for Hamilton and the championship could be wide open again. There's still plenty of points left and a lot can happen quickly (as last year showed).

The way Hamilton is performing since 2014 vs Vettel, only a DNF or serious problems for Hamilton will give Vettel the championship.