Poll: Reasons why Merc might not win in 2019

[f1316]

*if* Mercedes don’t win either championship (and I honestly have no idea either way) it’ll be for one reason: the Allison effect

[f1316]

Except for Vettel, there isn't a single soul in Ferrari who has the experience of putting together a title winning season.

I mean, that’s not true: Binotto for one was there throughout the Schumacher era.

Edit: just a quick google search reveals others like designer Fabio Montecchi who were there in that era; David Sanchez was at Renault for the Alonso title years. Doubtless there were also plenty of mechanics and engineers there for at least 2007/08.

[munudeges]

That upgrade package they came with this week wasn't knocked up overnight. They've had this coming for some time, and one would assume many more iterations to come after it. Pretty remarkable they can come with a change that large mid-test really. The notion that Merc are behind is rather fanciful if they can keep doing this.

[roon]

At the least it points to their productive capacity, which seems unrivaled.

[Shrieker]

Merc will win again. They have the best team (members haven't changed, or haven't changed much), the best budget - or joint best at worse - , and the best driver.

They've been winning with this formula 5 years straight now.

[Cannonballer]

You completely missed the point of his comment!

... But F1 isn't roulette.

No, the fact that they've won 5 times on the trot shows that they are statistically better.

It reduces the odds that they can win a sixth. What it doesn't do though, is make it a dead certainty that they'll get the sixth.

Both of the following are true:
A - The odds of Mercedes or any team winning six championships in a row are exceedingly slim.
B - Having won the five previous championships does not reduce their odds of winning the next championship because of A.

[roon]

The odds of Mercedes or any team winning six championships in a row are exceedingly slim.

All teams being equal, each team has a 1 in 10 chance of winning a WCC. This would be the roulette wheel analogy. But they aren't all equal, so some teams have greater chances. There has been a top two or three teams over the previous five seasons. Merc, Ferrari, and RB, with at least one season where RB wasn't a strong 3rd. In these past five seasons, Merc and Ferrari usually had something like a 1 in 2 chance of winning the WCC. Would be interesting to calculate a backmarker team's odds--I think they would be very small: hundredths or thousandths.

Six sequential championships, all teams being equal, would be... (1/10)^6 or .000001%. One in a million. Exceeding indeed, but for superior teams like Merc or Ferrari who have had something more like a 50% chance of winning a WCC in previous years, they are looking at perhaps (1/2)^6 or .016% odds (around 1 in 62).

I don't think most have known Merc's true pace in previous seasons either, so it could well be that during some years they had a 100% chance of winning the WCC, or near to.

This post is just my intuition on the matter; I'm hoping someone more versed in mathematics, statistics, and probability might chime in. One might say I'm relying on hindsight here, to which I'd agree. However, hindsight doesn't change what were the properties of each team within previous seasons. Results are often the only data we have to work with. If a sophisticated audit of each team were published before and during each season, I think we'd find similar results, with Merc and Ferrari type teams being given 1 in 2 odds.

To that point, it makes me wonder if the greatest threat to a team with good odds of winning is: hubris. If one, or a group, assumes themselves destined for victory, they may not try as hard nor be as cunning; but, that same feature is often described as advantageous within competitions, when it is known as: confidence. Or fearlessness.

[Cannonballer]

I am not a mathematician, statistician, nor am I particularly good at math. However, I successfully gambled (professional poker) for over a decade so I understand odds.

Your analysis of the odds is excellent, until you begin calculations regarding the odds of winning 6 times in a row. It is not that you have calculated the odds wrong. It is just that calculation has no bearing on the odds of Mercedes going on to win their sixth championship. Should they win, it might be an indication of what kind achievement that is.

[zeph]

A while back some Ferrari fan on this forum said he was happy to see James Allison as TD at Mercedes, because he has a history of building the second-best car.

It was probably tongue-in-cheek, but I felt his remark was not entirely unsubstantiated.

[munudeges]

A while back some Ferrari fan on this forum said he was happy to see James Allison as TD at Mercedes, because he has a history of building the second-best car.

He should be careful what he wishes for. The best car generally is not a Ferrari.

[roon]

Your analysis of the odds is excellent, until you begin calculations regarding the odds of winning 6 times in a row. It is not that you have calculated the odds wrong. It is just that calculation has no bearing on the odds of Mercedes going on to win their sixth championship.

Due to luck/fortune/chaos/the unforseen? If so, all participants are subject to these potentialities. So we must fall back upon the calculation.

[djones]

I think the biggest threat would have been the Ferrari chassis.

However.... I think Ferrari have a major problem this year and that is with the drivers. Leclerc is really really fast and we know how Vettel gets upset and then crumbles. Having two fast drivers only works if your car is super dominant, otherwise they just steal points from each other.

Mercedes have the perfect driver setup in that its a clear number 1 and number 2 and everybody knows their place.

So the biggest threat I see to Mercedes not winning the WDC is if Leclerc smashes Vettel in the first 5 or so races and they make him number 1 and Vettel plays support role the rest of the season. How likely is that? About as likely as Hamilton not being a 6 times WC I'm afraid.

[subasurf]

Just because the roulette ball landed on red the last ten times, the odds of it landing on black this time don't change.

You're comparing a scenario where sampling from a probability distribution has no influence on the distribution itself (roulette, coin flips etc) to a scenario where each sample from a probability distribution has an impact on future sampling (motorsport).

Prior performance provides some insight into future expected performance to the point that we would shift our prior expected distribution for each race based off prior sampling (results) and then update our prior each time we observe a race...within reason.

[GPR-A]

A while back some Ferrari fan on this forum said he was happy to see James Allison as TD at Mercedes, because he has a history of building the second-best car.

It was probably tongue-in-cheek, but I felt his remark was not entirely unsubstantiated.

Wasn't it same with Aldo Costa? He got fired from Ferrari after a mediocre 2011 season.
Geoff Willis was working for HRT!
Mike Elliott was working for Lotus team!

All these guys were building less than average cars, but then suddenly, they all got involved in building dominating cars at Mercedes! Now James Allison joins them. Funny isn't it?

What's the change? Just the team!

Ferrari has been famous for firing people and blaming them to for the failures. Costa, Marmorini, Fry and Allison. They fired even Montezemolo and now, Arrivabene. Getting fired from Ferrari, doesn't necessarily means they are not capable people, it's just how things are at Maranello. You are either build winning cars or get fired.

To be fair, Allison has been part of two double championships at Mercedes already! Folks at Ferrari are yet to win something in a decade. Before moving to Ferrari, Allison was responsible for creating two race winning cars at Lotus Renault in 2012 and 2013, with which someone like Alonso or Hamilton could have won a championship.

Some ferrari fans gets sore when things doesn't work, they even blamed Alonso for the lack of success, claiming that, he lead the teams to develop wrong cars, which is complete BS. Ferrari themselves might feel irritated when they hear such things from uninformed fans. But even they can't help it.

[selvam_e2002]

A while back some Ferrari fan on this forum said he was happy to see James Allison as TD at Mercedes, because he has a history of building the second-best car.

It was probably tongue-in-cheek, but I felt his remark was not entirely unsubstantiated.

Wasn't it same with Aldo Costa? He got fired from Ferrari after a mediocre 2011 season.
Geoff Willis was working for HRT!
Mike Elliott was working for Lotus team!

All these guys were building less than average cars, but then suddenly, they all got involved in building dominating cars at Mercedes! Now James Allison joins them. Funny isn't it?

What's the change? Just the team!

Ferrari has been famous for firing people and blaming them to for the failures. Costa, Marmorini, Fry and Allison. They fired even Montezemolo and now, Arrivabene. Getting fired from Ferrari, doesn't necessarily means they are not capable people, it's just how things are at Maranello. You are either build winning cars or get fired.

To be fair, Allison has been part of two double championships at Mercedes already! Folks at Ferrari are yet to win something in a decade. Before moving to Ferrari, Allison was responsible for creating two race winning cars at Lotus Renault in 2012 and 2013, with which someone like Alonso or Hamilton could have won a championship.

Some ferrari fans gets sore when things doesn't work, they even blamed Alonso for the lack of success, claiming that, he lead the teams to develop wrong cars, which is complete BS. Ferrari themselves might feel irritated when they hear such things from uninformed fans. But even they can't help it.

I agree with you. 100% True. Last year also all of the media and f1 fans said that Ferrari is faster car but what happened in 2018? Mec won WDC and WCC in 2018. Ferrari can give tough fight but Mec will win both the championship in 2019.