Poll: Reasons why Merc might not win in 2019

[JordanMugen]

So why won't they take a sixth?

Because they are the only team with low rake and long wheelbase, which is probably the wrong solution IMO. Obviously, the choice of low rake reduces the front wing's ground effect, and increases low speed corner understeer compared to other teams -- not good for optimising the Pirelli tyres.

Sure they can still pour money and development on this concept to make it OK, but there must be a reason that all the other teams have high-rake cars and shorter wheelbases...

[holeindalip]

So why won't they take a sixth?

Because they are the only team with low rake and long wheelbase, which is probably the wrong solution IMO. Obviously, the choice of low rake reduces the front wing's ground effect, and increases low speed corner understeer compared to other teams -- not good for optimising the Pirelli tyres.

Sure they can still pour money and development on this concept to make it OK, but there must be a reason that all the other teams have high-rake cars and shorter wheelbases...

Is high rake really the way to go??? Until a team wins a championship with a high raked car your argument is invalid, although Mercedes did say they would add take to the 2018 car slowly through out the year, we never saw it....

[GPR-A]

So why won't they take a sixth?

Because they are the only team with low rake and long wheelbase, which is probably the wrong solution IMO. Obviously, the choice of low rake reduces the front wing's ground effect, and increases low speed corner understeer compared to other teams -- not good for optimising the Pirelli tyres.

Sure they can still pour money and development on this concept to make it OK, but there must be a reason that all the other teams have high-rake cars and shorter wheelbases...

Is high rake really the way to go??? Until a team wins a championship with a high raked car your argument is invalid, although Mercedes did say they would add take to the 2018 car slowly through out the year, we never saw it....

High Rake or Low Rake? James Allison has an answer.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/88 ... des-crisis

As James Allison said late last year, things that are visible always draw the attention.

"Rake is like noses, everyone talks about them because you can see them," said Allison, whose 2018 car ran slightly increased rake compared to '17 and has apparently carried over roughly that level to this year.

"It's crept up during the year, but we're clearly not tail up, nose down and in all likelihood you can make a competitive car high or low rake. For us to say as an article of faith that high rake is the way to go, you'd spend a lot of time wading around below your current level of performance before you found all the tricks necessary to get back where you are today.

"I suspect someone with high rake might look at our car and wonder if there's more value in low rake. It's just a question of developing what you have. I guess if God were designing the car he'd be able to tell us but I doubt whether anyone else knows!"

[roon]

So why won't they take a sixth?

Because they are the only team with low rake and long wheelbase, which is probably the wrong solution IMO. Obviously, the choice of low rake reduces the front wing's ground effect, and increases low speed corner understeer compared to other teams -- not good for optimising the Pirelli tyres.

Sure they can still pour money and development on this concept to make it OK, but there must be a reason that all the other teams have high-rake cars and shorter wheelbases...

Could be but I think there may be more to it. Interesting that they combine their high front wing (this season) with low rake, which as you say also raises the wing. They've made two conscious decisions to raise the FW. Why?

[F1Krof]

Sometimes none of if matters. Simply somebody does a better job and they're in front, that's it. Just like Merc did it for 5 straight years, I believe Ferrari did it this year.

All be it with the data we have from pre-season testing.

Soon the wait is over, 4 more days and we'll have a better picture.

[Cannonballer]

Just because the roulette ball landed on red the last ten times, the odds of it landing on black this time don't change.

You're comparing a scenario where sampling from a probability distribution has no influence on the distribution itself (roulette, coin flips etc) to a scenario where each sample from a probability distribution has an impact on future sampling (motorsport).

Prior performance provides some insight into future expected performance to the point that we would shift our prior expected distribution for each race based off prior sampling (results) and then update our prior each time we observe a race...within reason.

I have never said their past performance was irrelevant to determining the odds of their win this championship, it is quite relevant. However, the odds of a team winning six times in a row is irrelevant to the odds of a team (who has already won five times in a row) winning the next time. (IRL if I were flipping a 10 sided coin and it came up Merc 5x in a row, I'd bet Merc or quit. Although, not because I thought the odds of it coming up Merc had gone up due to the streak. I'd assume the coin was off or rigged.)

[Jozsusz]

Sometimes none of if matters. Simply somebody does a better job and they're in front, that's it. Just like Merc did it for 5 straight years, I believe Ferrari did it this year.

All be it with the data we have from pre-season testing.

Soon the wait is over, 4 more days and we'll have a better picture.

7 tenths mate

[munudeges]

Well, we can probably close this thread. Yes, I know it's the first race and yes, Australia is a slightly unusual circuit, and yes, if Ferrari were a couple of tenths off they'd at least be somewhere in the ballpark, but where they are is an eternity away.

Teams that have had that kind of raw pace advantage early on just don't get caught in championships.

[SmallSoldier]

Well, we can probably close this thread. Yes, I know it's the first race and yes, Australia is a slightly unusual circuit, and yes, if Ferrari were a couple of tenths off they'd at least be somewhere in the ballpark, but where they are is an eternity away.

Teams that have had that kind of raw pace advantage early on just don't get caught in championships.

Same pace difference as last year... This is the first day of the year, way too early to make any assessment... The only thing that is clear is that Mercedes and Hamilton have Melbourne under siege... There is a reason why Hamilton has had 8 poles (6 consecutive ones) in this race track, that’s not luck


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[DiogoBrand]

I'd like to know the opinion of all the experts who said Ferrari was clearly faster this year, I'm genuinely curious.

[munudeges]

I'd like to know the opinion of all the experts who said Ferrari was clearly faster this year, I'm genuinely curious.

I have no idea on what they based that assessment. The idiots at Autosport are looking suitably embarrassed, as well they might, because it was totally unnecessary to go out on a limb like that. They even tried to double down on Friday by suggesting Ferrari were 'hiding' pace, with absolutely zilch to back it up with.

[munudeges]

Well, we can probably close this thread. Yes, I know it's the first race and yes, Australia is a slightly unusual circuit, and yes, if Ferrari were a couple of tenths off they'd at least be somewhere in the ballpark, but where they are is an eternity away.

Teams that have had that kind of raw pace advantage early on just don't get caught in championships.

Same pace difference as last year... This is the first day of the year, way too early to make any assessment... The only thing that is clear is that Mercedes and Hamilton have Melbourne under siege... There is a reason why Hamilton has had 8 poles (6 consecutive ones) in this race track, that’s not luck

Except Ferrari were supposed to have had a sizeable pace advantage, and they have found out that, at best, they are exactly where they were.

Tell me who were champions last year? Just in case you didn't understand what was actually written.

[roon]

I'd like to know the opinion of all the experts who said Ferrari was clearly faster this year, I'm genuinely curious.

I have no idea on what they based that assessment. The idiots at Autosport are looking suitably embarrassed, as well they might, because it was totally unnecessary to go out on a limb like that. They even tried to double down on Friday by suggesting Ferrari were 'hiding' pace, with absolutely zilch to back it up with.

They need to make money. Ramping up speculation pre-season turns eyes toward them and the sport. They're facing a sixth 'boring' season wherein third-party analysis is not particularly valuable.

[DiogoBrand]

I'd like to know the opinion of all the experts who said Ferrari was clearly faster this year, I'm genuinely curious.

I have no idea on what they based that assessment. The idiots at Autosport are looking suitably embarrassed, as well they might, because it was totally unnecessary to go out on a limb like that. They even tried to double down on Friday by suggesting Ferrari were 'hiding' pace, with absolutely zilch to back it up with.

They need to make money. Ramping up speculation pre-season turns eyes toward them and the sport. They're facing a sixth 'boring' season wherein third-party analysis is not particularly valuable.

True. To be honest I must admit they were brilliant, everyone was talking about them and reading their reports during winter testing, even though they were all crap. Now that the season has begun and everyone know they're wrong (as they probably knew all along), everyone will just forget that after this weekend and it will be business as usual.

But when I mentioned the "experts", I meant some people here on the forum as well, that were defending with their lives that Ferrari had the better car.

[SmallSoldier]

Well, we can probably close this thread. Yes, I know it's the first race and yes, Australia is a slightly unusual circuit, and yes, if Ferrari were a couple of tenths off they'd at least be somewhere in the ballpark, but where they are is an eternity away.

Teams that have had that kind of raw pace advantage early on just don't get caught in championships.

Same pace difference as last year... This is the first day of the year, way too early to make any assessment... The only thing that is clear is that Mercedes and Hamilton have Melbourne under siege... There is a reason why Hamilton has had 8 poles (6 consecutive ones) in this race track, that’s not luck

Except Ferrari were supposed to have had a sizeable pace advantage, and they have found out that, at best, they are exactly where they were.

Tell me who were champions last year? Just in case you didn't understand what was actually written.

Luckily, I don’t base my opinions on some loosely called “journalists” or “experts” (the same ones that placed Mclaren at the bottom of the grid with Williams and that seem to be very well in the midfield fight).

My point, in case I didn’t express myself properly is that last year, the gap between Mercedes and Ferrari was exactly the same at this point in the season... Nevertheless, Ferrari for the most part was on an equal fight with Mercedes for most of the season, to the point that they had an actual chance of winning both Championships if not for some mistakes not related to their car performance (Vettel’s crash in Silverstone, his spins in Monza, Suzuka and COTA for example)... Which means that it is too early to determine who will win the Championship and writing it off after only one qualifying session.

Finally, I am one of those that didn’t believe that there was such a sizable gap between Ferrari and Mercedes and that if anything, a few tenths separates them either way depending on the track... Simply put, Melbourne is a track that suits more the Mercedes car than it does Ferrari’s, which compounded with what is a rumored lack of reliability from the Ferrari engine which is preventing them from going all out explains the gap we saw during Qualifying... But there are still 20 more races to go after this one and I’m sure they will fix whatever issue is they are having... Like I said, it’s absurd to write off the season at this point in time.


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