Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[adrianjordan]

To answer the question posed in the thread title, yes, the 2021 season will be impacted by COVID.

The entire world, in all aspects, will be impacted by COVID this year.

Things won't get back to normal this year.

Honestly, I don't think we'll even be fully back to normal in 2022 either.

I think Covid will become the new normal, being a virus that is seasonally vaccinated for just as with seasonal 'flu before Covid. So people will get a shot for Covid and seasonal 'flu each year.

In the UK it's not realistic that we'll be fully vaccinated before the end of the year despite what the government are promising at the moment. Especially as they've already admitted that boosters will almost certainly be needed for variants.

And we have one of the most best performing vaccination programmes at the moment.

[PlatinumZealot]

Covid is looking like it will be here to the end of 2024.

[Just_a_fan]

That's 1 in 3 people who have Covid are asymptomatic, not 1 in 3 people in general population have asymptomatic Covid.

Noted, although as testing is still fairly low as a percentage of the population, there's no knowing how many people have it in an asymptomatic form. I could have it as I type this, but as I'm not being tested there's no way anyone will know.

A few people I know who have been tested basically had to lie to get the test. Large construction sites, someone phones in and says they have symptoms, site gets shut down. So people have to lie to get a test - you can't have a test unless you tell them you have some of the symptoms. Only way to keep these sites working.

I'm still fairly sure that SWMBO and I had it back in March last year. Both felt a bit achy - in a mild flu type of way - but no temperature, no new persistent cough. But we both lost sense of taste and smell for several days. This was before these were announced to be symptoms and so we thought "we don't have it". But looking back, I think we did have it. Of course, never tested so will never know.

[Just_a_fan]

Covid is looking like it will be here to the end of 2024.

Covid is here to stay. It will be in the population going forward just as other corona viruses are in the population. Whether it will be as big a killer going forward is the question.

[Just_a_fan]

Honestly, I don't think we'll even be fully back to normal in 2022 either.

I think Covid will become the new normal, being a virus that is seasonally vaccinated for just as with seasonal 'flu before Covid. So people will get a shot for Covid and seasonal 'flu each year.

In the UK it's not realistic that we'll be fully vaccinated before the end of the year despite what the government are promising at the moment. Especially as they've already admitted that boosters will almost certainly be needed for variants.

And we have one of the most best performing vaccination programmes at the moment.

I'm sure you're correct on that. I think we'll be a good way there by end of year, and then it will be a programme of continual boosters for those in "at risk" groups. Whether that will be sufficient is something we'll find out over the next couple of years, I guess.

[Big Tea]

Went for fuel in my bike. Sign on the booth door.

Masks must be worn at all times inside. Please remove crashhelmets.

[nzjrs]

Went for fuel in my bike. Sign on the booth door.

Masks must be worn at all times inside. Please remove crashhelmets.

that's a good one!!!

[PlatinumZealot]

Covid is looking like it will be here to the end of 2024.

Covid is here to stay. It will be in the population going forward just as other corona viruses are in the population. Whether it will be as big a killer going forward is the question.

It will go away though. Neither is the human body nor the animals that regularly interact with us (like birds) are reservoirs for the Corona virus. So it cannot sustain itself. It will die off at some point, whether herd immunity, it mutates overnight or when it kills us all. But it cannot sustainably survive in human, cat dog or bird bodies. Only a few wild animals that are very rare and remote. (bats).

[Just_a_fan]

Covid is looking like it will be here to the end of 2024.

Covid is here to stay. It will be in the population going forward just as other corona viruses are in the population. Whether it will be as big a killer going forward is the question.

It will go away though. Neither is the human body nor the animals that regularly interact with us (like birds) are reservoirs for the Corona virus. So it cannot sustain itself. It will die off at some point, whether herd immunity, it mutates overnight or when it kills us all. But it cannot sustainably survive in human, cat dog or bird bodies. Only a few wild animals that are very rare and remote. (bats).

I suggest you are incorrect. All of the corona viruses that infect humans started out in other species. And all of the lower fatality ones are still with us. One (OC43) has been suggested to have been responsible for the "Russian 'flu" in 1879 (killed a million people, by the way). It is still with us today and is responsible for some common cold symptoms.

Why do you think that the sources of the virus are not also reservoirs for the virus? Do you think it suddenly appeared in bats (perhaps pangolins) and then, having moved to humans, just as suddenly disappeared from bats?

Covid will be with humans for good. Hopefully it too will just become another "cold virus".

We are lucky that SAR-CoV-2 is a mild, albeit transmissible, virus. If SARS-CoV-1 (the SARS from the early 2000s) had been as transmissible as COVID, we could have had 10% fatality, instead of 2%. Or if MERS had been as transmissible as COVID we could have seen 35% fatality. Think of that. We'd have had >35million deaths worldwide by now if COVID had been as fatal as MERS.

Luckily, MERS and SARS seem to be rare infections, perhaps because of their fatality rates. But just like Ebola and Marburg, they could pop up again and cause an outbreak from time to time.

Oh, and as for bats being "rare", I would point out that the bats are the second largest group of mammals with only rodents being larger. There are 1200 species of bat compared to only 8 great ape species (that includes humans, by the way). Bats live everywhere that humans live except the extremely cold environments, and many species use human structures to roost in. So, no, they aren't "rare and remote".

[Zynerji]

COVID has apparently completely destroyed the flu virus however. All-time record low flu deaths in 2020..

[nzjrs]

Absolute disbelief wow at PZ - basically everything JaF wrote is correct!

The evolutionary virus interaction with bats is btw in and of itself fascinating. Bats are remarkably immune from many viruses for which they host and the reasons for this are an active field of study (transposons are shiny). From the genes eye view of the virus I find it fascinating that this globally successful corona virus advantageously evolved to not harm bats - a fellow mammal that flies and is a perfect animal for spreading!

Cool bat virus facts: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03128-0

[adrianjordan]

COVID has apparently completely destroyed the flu virus however. All-time record low flu deaths in 2020..

Exactly why we are social distancing and wearing masks, to keep other infection rates down and allow healthcare systems to cope.

Influenza won't be wiped out because it will still be circulating in other countries etc, but it is definitely at an all time low and there is a realistic belief that in the UK we may wipe it out for a while.

[adrianjordan]

That's 1 in 3 people who have Covid are asymptomatic, not 1 in 3 people in general population have asymptomatic Covid.

Noted, although as testing is still fairly low as a percentage of the population, there's no knowing how many people have it in an asymptomatic form. I could have it as I type this, but as I'm not being tested there's no way anyone will know.

A few people I know who have been tested basically had to lie to get the test. Large construction sites, someone phones in and says they have symptoms, site gets shut down. So people have to lie to get a test - you can't have a test unless you tell them you have some of the symptoms. Only way to keep these sites working.

I'm still fairly sure that SWMBO and I had it back in March last year. Both felt a bit achy - in a mild flu type of way - but no temperature, no new persistent cough. But we both lost sense of taste and smell for several days. This was before these were announced to be symptoms and so we thought "we don't have it". But looking back, I think we did have it. Of course, never tested so will never know.

ONS are running a testing programme separate from the Test And Trace one where they are sampling entire population areas regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. This is how we now have reasonably accurate figures for what percentage of people are getting an asymptomatic infection.

You can also add the Lateral Flow Testing being used by NHS Staff amongst other groups to that.

[Just_a_fan]

COVID has apparently completely destroyed the flu virus however. All-time record low flu deaths in 2020..

That's because social distancing and wearing masks helps with flu spread as well as Covid. If we had social distancing, mask wearing and high levels of hand washing all the time, transmissible illnesses such as flu and colds would be reduced throughout the population. But we're not going to do distancing and masks for much longer. Also, I doubt handwashing will continue - heck, there plenty of people that don't wash their hands after going to the toilet!

As Covid will have killed off some of the people that flu would have killed, we may see flu deaths being lower after the pandemic for a while, of course. After all, there are over 2 million people dead from Covid. In the US, more people have died from Covid than the US lost in the whole of WW2. In the UK, Covid has taken twice as many people as civilians were killed in WW2 (from cities being bombed etc.). It will be interesting to see what the stats are like for flu deaths over the next few years, that's for sure.

[PlatinumZealot]

Covid is here to stay. It will be in the population going forward just as other corona viruses are in the population. Whether it will be as big a killer going forward is the question.

It will go away though. Neither is the human body nor the animals that regularly interact with us (like birds) are reservoirs for the Corona virus. So it cannot sustain itself. It will die off at some point, whether herd immunity, it mutates overnight or when it kills us all. But it cannot sustainably survive in human, cat dog or bird bodies. Only a few wild animals that are very rare and remote. (bats).

I suggest you are incorrect. All of the corona viruses that infect humans started out in other species. And all of the lower fatality ones are still with us. One (OC43) has been suggested to have been responsible for the "Russian 'flu" in 1879 (killed a million people, by the way). It is still with us today and is responsible for some common cold symptoms.

Why do you think that the sources of the virus are not also reservoirs for the virus? Do you think it suddenly appeared in bats (perhaps pangolins) and then, having moved to humans, just as suddenly disappeared from bats?

Covid will be with humans for good. Hopefully it too will just become another "cold virus".

We are lucky that SAR-CoV-2 is a mild, albeit transmissible, virus. If SARS-CoV-1 (the SARS from the early 2000s) had been as transmissible as COVID, we could have had 10% fatality, instead of 2%. Or if MERS had been as transmissible as COVID we could have seen 35% fatality. Think of that. We'd have had >35million deaths worldwide by now if COVID had been as fatal as MERS.

Luckily, MERS and SARS seem to be rare infections, perhaps because of their fatality rates. But just like Ebola and Marburg, they could pop up again and cause an outbreak from time to time.

Oh, and as for bats being "rare", I would point out that the bats are the second largest group of mammals with only rodents being larger. There are 1200 species of bat compared to only 8 great ape species (that includes humans, by the way). Bats live everywhere that humans live except the extremely cold environments, and many species use human structures to roost in. So, no, they aren't "rare and remote".

I usggest you check again.

The covid-19 virus cannot live symbiotically inside of a human.

If you have covid-19 you cannot live with it and it cannot live inside you for a long period of time. Either your body will kill it or it will kill you.
The common flu has a reservoir inside birds which are in regular contact with humans. It cannot live in us for long... But because the birds are right there they keep bringing it around each year.

Covid-19 has no such familiar reservior. Currently it is propogating through rapid transmission. (think of island hopping but it cannot live on an island for too long).

HIV for example is a virus that has a Human Reservoir. A Human with it can carry it till he dies. And like an annoying relative the virus is able to stick around as it can find a comfy pool for it in our back yard.

Dont know if I explained it well.