Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:00 pm
The covid-19 virus cannot live symbiotically inside of a human.
Noone is claiming symbiosis. Covid isn't symbiotic, it's pathogenic.
If you have covid-19 you cannot live with it and it cannot live inside you for a long period of time. Either your body will kill it or it will kill you.
The common flu has a reservoir inside birds which are in regular contact with humans. It cannot live in us for long... But because the birds are right there they keep bringing it around each year.
Influenza stays in the human population by a process known as antigenic drift. This means it changes slightly - just enough to stay ahead of the immune system but not so much that it becomes a new disease.

Covid is mutating in a similar way - there are lots of strains now, with several in circulation that are of concern. If Covid continues to mutate like this, it will stay in the human population and just go round and round, just like influenza does. No need for birds or bats to keep the cycle going.

Seasonal flu is typically a combination of H1N1 and H3N2. H1N1 has been causing human deaths for at least 100 years being the cause of the 1918 pandemic. H3N2 caused the 1960s "Hong Kong flu" that killed over a million people.

Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related - but it is an example of how a virus can stay in the population at a much lower fatality rate. There are 4 corona viruses that cause some human common colds. They moved in to humans from other species. They don't need those other species to stay in the human population. They remain with us by antigenic drift. That's why you get the common cold year after year after year.

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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Scorpaguy
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm


Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related -

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
...interesting stuff. Covid, being a corona virus is more closely related to several virus strains which cause the common cold. For generations mankind has lamented the lack of cure for the "common cold", which is with us year round (sound familiar) but luckily quite mild in severity. Other viruses can cause the "common cold" as well, but the scientific community has oft stated that besides the lack of need for a "common cold" vaccine, such a vaccine would be impractical, nigh impossible, due to the number of corona type variants that cause the malady as well as its tendency to rapidly mutate.

Given the traits of this family, it makes me ponder the complaints from some of the "lab coats" that the vaccination strategy for covid is an approach that could lead to disappointment and that a rapid/vigorous isolation of breakouts would be a more permanent measure (coupled with better treatment methods). One thing the lab coats seem to agree on, expecting the current covid vaccine to be smallpox-esc in regards to efficacy and permanency is unrealistic. Unfortunately, it is quite possible we are looking at decades of new vaccine development (along with evolving herd immunities) and creating new paradigms for treatment. Our world could be forever changed.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Scorpaguy wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:29 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm


Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related -

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
...interesting stuff. Covid, being a corona virus is more closely related to several virus strains which cause the common cold. For generations mankind has lamented the lack of cure for the "common cold", which is with us year round (sound familiar) but luckily quite mild in severity. Other viruses can cause the "common cold" as well, but the scientific community has oft stated that besides the lack of need for a "common cold" vaccine, such a vaccine would be impractical, nigh impossible, due to the number of corona type variants that cause the malady as well as its tendency to rapidly mutate.
Corona viruses cause a small part of the common cold illness (c.15%), with the majority of cold causing bugs being rhinoviruses. Realistically, a "cold" will be an infection of several viruses at once which is why a vaccine for "the cold" is unlikely/unreasonable to expect. It's also why a "cold" can be anything from a bit of runny nose all the way to three or four days in bed feeling like you've been beaten up.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Scorpaguy wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:29 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm


Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related -

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
...interesting stuff. Covid, being a corona virus is more closely related to several virus strains which cause the common cold. For generations mankind has lamented the lack of cure for the "common cold", which is with us year round (sound familiar) but luckily quite mild in severity. Other viruses can cause the "common cold" as well, but the scientific community has oft stated that besides the lack of need for a "common cold" vaccine, such a vaccine would be impractical, nigh impossible, due to the number of corona type variants that cause the malady as well as its tendency to rapidly mutate.

Given the traits of this family, it makes me ponder the complaints from some of the "lab coats" that the vaccination strategy for covid is an approach that could lead to disappointment and that a rapid/vigorous isolation of breakouts would be a more permanent measure (coupled with better treatment methods). One thing the lab coats seem to agree on, expecting the current covid vaccine to be smallpox-esc in regards to efficacy and permanency is unrealistic. Unfortunately, it is quite possible we are looking at decades of new vaccine development (along with evolving herd immunities) and creating new paradigms for treatment. Our world could be forever changed.
I tend to think that in the eyes of many the use of a vaccine is to keep the numbers of those hospitalised and in particular needing intensive care and mechanical assistance to a level where there is some capacity
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Jolle
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Scorpaguy wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:29 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm


Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related -

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
...interesting stuff. Covid, being a corona virus is more closely related to several virus strains which cause the common cold. For generations mankind has lamented the lack of cure for the "common cold", which is with us year round (sound familiar) but luckily quite mild in severity. Other viruses can cause the "common cold" as well, but the scientific community has oft stated that besides the lack of need for a "common cold" vaccine, such a vaccine would be impractical, nigh impossible, due to the number of corona type variants that cause the malady as well as its tendency to rapidly mutate.

Given the traits of this family, it makes me ponder the complaints from some of the "lab coats" that the vaccination strategy for covid is an approach that could lead to disappointment and that a rapid/vigorous isolation of breakouts would be a more permanent measure (coupled with better treatment methods). One thing the lab coats seem to agree on, expecting the current covid vaccine to be smallpox-esc in regards to efficacy and permanency is unrealistic. Unfortunately, it is quite possible we are looking at decades of new vaccine development (along with evolving herd immunities) and creating new paradigms for treatment. Our world could be forever changed.
I don't know where you get your information, but the common cold is a rhinovirus and not a coronavirus, although they look quite similar, they are not.

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Scorpaguy
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Jolle wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:55 pm
I don't know where you get your information, but the common cold is a rhinovirus and not a coronavirus, although they look quite similar, they are not.

Jolle
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Scorpaguy wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:14 pm
Jolle wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:55 pm
I don't know where you get your information, but the common cold is a rhinovirus and not a coronavirus, although they look quite similar, they are not.
In the first bit:
Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold.

As in, the common coronavirus has similar symptoms as the common cold, like COVID-19 has similar symptoms as the flu.

From the cdc as-well:

Many different respiratory viruses can cause the common cold, but rhinoviruses are the most common. Rhinoviruses can also trigger asthma attacks and have been linked to sinus and ear infections.

https://www.cdc.gov/features/rhinoviruses/index.html

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Big Tea wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:49 pm
Scorpaguy wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:29 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm


Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related -

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
...interesting stuff. Covid, being a corona virus is more closely related to several virus strains which cause the common cold. For generations mankind has lamented the lack of cure for the "common cold", which is with us year round (sound familiar) but luckily quite mild in severity. Other viruses can cause the "common cold" as well, but the scientific community has oft stated that besides the lack of need for a "common cold" vaccine, such a vaccine would be impractical, nigh impossible, due to the number of corona type variants that cause the malady as well as its tendency to rapidly mutate.

Given the traits of this family, it makes me ponder the complaints from some of the "lab coats" that the vaccination strategy for covid is an approach that could lead to disappointment and that a rapid/vigorous isolation of breakouts would be a more permanent measure (coupled with better treatment methods). One thing the lab coats seem to agree on, expecting the current covid vaccine to be smallpox-esc in regards to efficacy and permanency is unrealistic. Unfortunately, it is quite possible we are looking at decades of new vaccine development (along with evolving herd immunities) and creating new paradigms for treatment. Our world could be forever changed.
I tend to think that in the eyes of many the use of a vaccine is to keep the numbers of those hospitalised and in particular needing intensive care and mechanical assistance to a level where there is some capacity
Anecdotally from talking to patients, there is still a misconception that the vaccines will get rid of Covid.
Bring on the EV revolution!!

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henry
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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I wonder if what’s happening in Australia and New Zealand right now gives an indication of how life will be in well regulated societies in the future and how it will interact with sporting events?
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Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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henry wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:37 am
I wonder if what’s happening in Australia and New Zealand right now gives an indication of how life will be in well regulated societies in the future and how it will interact with sporting events?
From the perspective of getting back to normal (international travel, free movement of people) I think NZ has painted itself into a bit of a corner. Covid zero doesn't leave much room for deviation from that magic number. Comparatively the Australian psyche is better prepared for reopening IMO.

For reference, I've also been trying to get a flight and a quarantine hotel spot so I can fly to NZ for the last 6 months.....

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JordanMugen
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:29 am
Comparatively the Australian psyche is better prepared for reopening IMO.
I don't see a big difference, Australia is also going for zero COVID cases. The ~20 recent cases in Victoria are being addressed with a state-wide "hard" lockdown for at least 5 days and possibly more. At this level, it is possible to trace and isolate every single person with COVID.

It is exactly this diligent approach that has allowed for pubs and restaurants to be open without masks the rest of the time.

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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm
PlatinumZealot wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:00 pm
The covid-19 virus cannot live symbiotically inside of a human.
Noone is claiming symbiosis. Covid isn't symbiotic, it's pathogenic.
If you have covid-19 you cannot live with it and it cannot live inside you for a long period of time. Either your body will kill it or it will kill you.
The common flu has a reservoir inside birds which are in regular contact with humans. It cannot live in us for long... But because the birds are right there they keep bringing it around each year.
Influenza stays in the human population by a process known as antigenic drift. This means it changes slightly - just enough to stay ahead of the immune system but not so much that it becomes a new disease.

Covid is mutating in a similar way - there are lots of strains now, with several in circulation that are of concern. If Covid continues to mutate like this, it will stay in the human population and just go round and round, just like influenza does. No need for birds or bats to keep the cycle going.

Seasonal flu is typically a combination of H1N1 and H3N2. H1N1 has been causing human deaths for at least 100 years being the cause of the 1918 pandemic. H3N2 caused the 1960s "Hong Kong flu" that killed over a million people.

Covid isn't influenza - they're not remotely related - but it is an example of how a virus can stay in the population at a much lower fatality rate. There are 4 corona viruses that cause some human common colds. They moved in to humans from other species. They don't need those other species to stay in the human population. They remain with us by antigenic drift. That's why you get the common cold year after year after year.

To think Covid will suddenly disappear is very hopeful but perhaps misguided.
Again, the human body is not a reservoir for the virus and zootonic reservoirs are not commonly near us or large enough to keep feeding it back into the population like the seasonal Flu. If this happens it will pose a worse problem. So we are fortunate in that case. It is not my opinion so I don't understand why do you disagree with that fact? It is being transmitted human to human now but that is much easier to control. Compare among the different countries the different measures and results.

Covid-19 can suddenly disappear, beleive it or not. This is also another fact.
.. OG.. OG.. OG.. OG..

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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JordanMugen wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:28 pm
nzjrs wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:29 am
Comparatively the Australian psyche is better prepared for reopening IMO.
I don't see a big difference, Australia is also going for zero COVID cases. The ~20 recent cases in Victoria are being addressed with a state-wide "hard" lockdown for at least 5 days and possibly more. At this level, it is possible to trace and isolate every single person with COVID.
I'm very careful to not speak about the actual policy approach but to describe what and how NZers and Aus people with whom I speak, react to the question "what is an acceptable number of cases in the country to allow free international movement of people (closing quarentine hotels for example)". IMO there is a difference in the reaction and answer of people from those two countries and there to me seems to be different government messaging preparing the population for that number being inevitably greater than zero.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:30 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm
PlatinumZealot wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:00 pm
Again, the human body is not a reservoir for the virus and zootonic reservoirs are not commonly near us or large enough to keep feeding it back into the population like the seasonal Flu. If this happens it will pose a worse problem. So we are fortunate in that case. It is not my opinion so I don't understand why do you disagree with that fact? It is being transmitted human to human now but that is much easier to control. Compare among the different countries the different measures and results.

Covid-19 can suddenly disappear, beleive it or not. This is also another fact.
If it is not your opinion and is a "fact", perhaps you could reference some sources to show why Covid is different.

Antigenic drift in viruses is well known and results in viruses staying in the hunan population - the reservoir you claim doesn't exist.

As pointed out, other zoonotic corona viruses (all human corona viruses are zoonotic, remember) are still in the human population many years after they first infected humans. Why is Covid different to those?
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:07 pm
PlatinumZealot wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:30 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:30 pm

Again, the human body is not a reservoir for the virus and zootonic reservoirs are not commonly near us or large enough to keep feeding it back into the population like the seasonal Flu. If this happens it will pose a worse problem. So we are fortunate in that case. It is not my opinion so I don't understand why do you disagree with that fact? It is being transmitted human to human now but that is much easier to control. Compare among the different countries the different measures and results.

Covid-19 can suddenly disappear, beleive it or not. This is also another fact.
If it is not your opinion and is a "fact", perhaps you could reference some sources to show why Covid is different.

Antigenic drift in viruses is well known and results in viruses staying in the hunan population - the reservoir you claim doesn't exist.

As pointed out, other zoonotic corona viruses (all human corona viruses are zoonotic, remember) are still in the human population many years after they first infected humans. Why is Covid different to those?
This!!

Sorry PZ, but what you say is completely at odds with what I was taught in university about viruses and how they survive in the human population.

Covid-19 is here to stay. Even if a mutation develops that renders that strain less transmissible, the more dominant strain will take over.

We will learn to live with it and develop more treatments for it, but it will be with us for a long, long time.
Bring on the EV revolution!!