Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:53 pm

Ever wondered how swine flu disappeared? A number of reasons. We had no
High tech Vaccine either. And keep in mine this one was mayne more aggressive.
That's easy. It didn't. Swine flu is one of the H1N1 strains that makes up seasonal Flu.

It sounds like you're misunderstanding what your friend is telling you.

As for Chinese bats being too far away, Chinese people can use aeroplanes to visit other countries, and people from other countries can visit China. That's how it spread in the first place!

Horseshoe bats appear to be the likely "culprit". Of note is the greater Horseshoe bat which has a range from China to Europe.
Image
This bat hosts 9 SARS-related coronaviruses, admittedly many fewer than the 30 hosted by Chinese rufous horseshoe bats which are thought to be the source of SARS-CoV-2, but their ranges overlap. So the idea that we're going to be "safe from Chinese bats" seems a bit #-o
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:42 am

That's easy. It didn't. Swine flu is one of the H1N1 strains that makes up seasonal Flu.

It sounds like you're misunderstanding what your friend is telling you.

As for Chinese bats being too far away, Chinese people can use aeroplanes to visit other countries, and people from other countries can visit China. That's how it spread in the first place!

Horseshoe bats appear to be the likely "culprit". Of note is the greater Horseshoe bat which has a range from China to Europe.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _area.png
This bat hosts 9 SARS-related coronaviruses, admittedly many fewer than the 30 hosted by Chinese rufous horseshoe bats which are thought to be the source of SARS-CoV-2, but their ranges overlap. So the idea that we're going to be "safe from Chinese bats" seems a bit #-o

Why so much complication? Making yourself all dizzy.

The pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been classified as a zoonotic disease, however, no animal reservoir has yet been found
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 96944/full

It is still not decided where the virus came from, but we know many still feel it is from an animal source, hence my proverbial Chinese bat.
Whichever creature it is, (if covid-19 is indeed of animal origin), it was not in regular contact in humans.

I hope that is clear now.
.. OG.. OG.. OG.. OG..
Online Stress Therapy. #77 is mediocre. W12 is the fastest car. Repeat x 1,000

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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:42 am

That's easy. It didn't. Swine flu is one of the H1N1 strains that makes up seasonal Flu.
Read your sources again... There is a key detail you are misunderstanding.

Viruses by their nature mutate and can also exchange genetic information. The genetic descendants of swine Flu existing today is obviously not the same threat that existed last century.. By mutations, every now and then the virus descendants can re-emerge is a form that can pose a pandemic threat, however. This is not a common thing.

So to connect the dots with my prior posts. The same way swine flu "disappeared" Sars cov-2 can do the same. Except the chance for to re-emergent descendents should be way less because there is no animal reservoir that we know near us.

Anyway, 2024 is my date for this thing to make like a tree. Whats yours?
.. OG.. OG.. OG.. OG..
Online Stress Therapy. #77 is mediocre. W12 is the fastest car. Repeat x 1,000

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PZ, your friend has published many papers, please link to them then to support your argument. Meanwhile I'll rely on my professional training and university degree which included a module on public health and communicable diseases from one of the top Medical Schools in the country.

BTW I have a friend who says Covid is a conspiracy and isn't real. They're a District Nurse. Does that make them correct?
Bring on the EV revolution!!

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:40 am
Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:42 am

That's easy. It didn't. Swine flu is one of the H1N1 strains that makes up seasonal Flu.

It sounds like you're misunderstanding what your friend is telling you.

As for Chinese bats being too far away, Chinese people can use aeroplanes to visit other countries, and people from other countries can visit China. That's how it spread in the first place!

Horseshoe bats appear to be the likely "culprit". Of note is the greater Horseshoe bat which has a range from China to Europe.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _area.png
This bat hosts 9 SARS-related coronaviruses, admittedly many fewer than the 30 hosted by Chinese rufous horseshoe bats which are thought to be the source of SARS-CoV-2, but their ranges overlap. So the idea that we're going to be "safe from Chinese bats" seems a bit #-o

Why so much complication? Making yourself all dizzy.

The pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been classified as a zoonotic disease, however, no animal reservoir has yet been found
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 96944/full

It is still not decided where the virus came from, but we know many still feel it is from an animal source, hence my proverbial Chinese bat.
Whichever creature it is, (if covid-19 is indeed of animal origin), it was not in regular contact in humans.

I hope that is clear now.
That paper looks to redefine the virus on a semantic basis partly in order to prevent animal persecution.
Re-classification of COVID-19 as an EID makes it no less valuable or imperative that research confirm whether an animal reservoir actually exists especially considering that if one does, it could become a potential source of future human infection. Moreover, it will influence not only the ongoing research and response to COVID-19 specifically, but will reshape and revamp the way the international community addresses future pandemic preparedness and threats. Additionally, withdrawing the ill-suited designation of SARS-CoV-2 as a zoonosis will reduce the risk of inappropriate animal persecution or other unsuitable interventions whilst the source of the problem or animal associated risk is unknown.
This is because some of the authors are veterinarians. I can sympathise with this position - I'd hate to see wholesale slaughter of e.g. bats, as a way of trying to stop Covid or other possible diseases.

Much of the research done so far points to the virus being related to, and thus likely comes from, bat-carried SARS viruses. Bats have an amazing inherent ability to host pathogens without themselves getting sick from them. The study of bats and their immune system may well lead to future medical improvements for humans.

Interestingly, they also talk about whether the virus has or needs an animal reservoir. If it hasn't and doesn't then that throws out your argument about Covid going away for want of a reservoir. :wink:
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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I really don't know where you are going with this PZ. You said swine flu disappeared and I showed you it didn't. You imprecisely state that virus mutate and now redefine your position on H5N1 that it mutated, sure. Similarly Cov19 is continuing to mutate constantly as expected.

(edit: minor point, you also said it 'disappeared' without a vaccine. Which is also convincingly incorrect as explained on the CDC link I posted. Not only was there a vaccine shortly after the 2009 outbreak, but also now, depending on the year, vaccination against any resurgent swine flu strains gets mixed into the seasonal fly vaccine blend - 2019-2020 blend info: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu- ... 9-2020.htm FYI contains such a component)

I think you have this concept of "mutate to be less virulent" floating around in your head - which is somewhat conventionally expected - you talked to your friend and then you further confused yourself with whatever you mean by "disappear" (previous thread I linked) and now you are just being stubborn.

If you want to say Cov19 will disappear in the same way you said H5N1 disappeared then I agree with you - you are using the word disappear wrong, in fact the opposite - but yes sure it will probably 'disappear' insofar as it becomes endemic and seasonal (with the support of natural and vaccination derived population immunity).

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Two bits of contrary news from the UK.

FIrst, the vaccine appears to be working in the elderly:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56083905
In England, 41% of over-80s tested positive for antibodies, which the ONS said was "most likely due to the high vaccination rate in this group".

Two weeks ago that figure was 26%.

It takes two to three weeks for immunity to build after vaccination.
Second, too many idiots still behaving as if it's all a joke:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-b ... m-56078203
Police have raided a makeshift club, complete with DJ, bar and VIP area, where about 150 people were "packed in".

Officers were pelted with bottles as clubbers tried to break out of the Birmingham building and were seen fleeing via the roof.

About 70 people were fined £200 and the DJ faces a £10,000 fine.

On the same night, 13 people were found in a workshop that had been turned into a bar nicknamed "The Covid Arms".
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:12 am
I really don't know where you are going with this PZ. You said swine flu disappeared and I showed you it didn't. You imprecisely state that virus mutate and now redefine your position on H5N1 that it mutated, sure. Similarly Cov19 is continuing to mutate constantly as expected.

(edit: minor point, you also said it 'disappeared' without a vaccine. Which is also convincingly incorrect as explained on the CDC link I posted. Not only was there a vaccine shortly after the 2009 outbreak, but also now, depending on the year, vaccination against any resurgent swine flu strains gets mixed into the seasonal fly vaccine blend - 2019-2020 blend info: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu- ... 9-2020.htm FYI contains such a component)

I think you have this concept of "mutate to be less virulent" floating around in your head - which is somewhat conventionally expected - you talked to your friend and then you further confused yourself with whatever you mean by "disappear" (previous thread I linked) and now you are just being stubborn.

If you want to say Cov19 will disappear in the same way you said H5N1 disappeared then I agree with you - you are using the word disappear wrong, in fact the opposite - but yes sure it will probably 'disappear' insofar as it becomes endemic and seasonal (with the support of natural and vaccination derived population immunity).
I don't think it will be endemic or seasonal. I say the waves will continue to ripple until... It disappears... (in trump voice). That's my prediction all things considered. I'm giving it maybe three more years... 2024..

A few years down the road if the "will covid-19 affect the 2025 seasom thread?" exists.... Then... Shoot me a private message to come for my lashings.
.. OG.. OG.. OG.. OG..
Online Stress Therapy. #77 is mediocre. W12 is the fastest car. Repeat x 1,000

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:07 pm
I don't think it will be endemic or seasonal. I say the waves will continue to ripple until... It disappears... (in trump voice). That's my prediction all things considered. I'm giving it maybe three more years... 2024..

A few years down the road if the "will covid-19 affect the 2025 seasom thread?" exists.... Then... Shoot me a private message to come for my lashings.
Assuming the virus remains in circulation, it won't be referred to as Covid, it'll just be considered to be a "seasonal flu bug" even though it's not a flu virus at all. The cases that end up with a fatality will no doubt have SAR-CoV-2 on the death certificate but the name will have fallen out of public use by then.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:07 pm
I don't think it will be endemic or seasonal. I say the waves will continue to ripple until... It disappears... (in trump voice). That's my prediction all things considered. I'm giving it maybe three more years... 2024..

A few years down the road if the "will covid-19 affect the 2025 seasom thread?" exists.... Then... Shoot me a private message to come for my lashings.
What number of cases would you allow while still saying it disappears? (for reference, you said H5N1 swine flu 'disappeared' with 100 million cases in the 10 years 2009 - 2018)?

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:18 pm
PlatinumZealot wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:07 pm
I don't think it will be endemic or seasonal. I say the waves will continue to ripple until... It disappears... (in trump voice). That's my prediction all things considered. I'm giving it maybe three more years... 2024..

A few years down the road if the "will covid-19 affect the 2025 seasom thread?" exists.... Then... Shoot me a private message to come for my lashings.
Assuming the virus remains in circulation, it won't be referred to as Covid, it'll just be considered to be a "seasonal flu bug" even though it's not a flu virus at all. The cases that end up with a fatality will no doubt have SAR-CoV-2 on the death certificate but the name will have fallen out of public use by then.
The name 'flu is actually short for viral influence, so it would be correct
We are standing on the shoulders of Giants. So don't kick.

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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BTW, in case anyone thinks I'm a Covid fear monger.

I'm the opposite, its basically zero risk for my age bracket. I'm reluctantly complying with being a solitary hermit in order to selflessly protect the more vulnerable whom are foreign to me in the country I live as a guest - because I'm not a monster and what the hell else is there to do. I think schools should have already been opened and I think most government strategy on this whole thing has been abysmal. I also weep at the self immolation of many 'experts' credibility and more broadly expertise in general during this entire pandemic (protests are bad, protests are good). It's been bad for everyone. Too long spent scrolling on social media have melted their minds.

But back to the point - I think it will probably be vaccinated under control by the end of 2021 and things will be back to normal by mid 2022 (in rich countries). But that wont be through some fantastical view of disappearance and finger crossing mutations, that will be through science and medical hard work.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Big Tea wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:48 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:18 pm
PlatinumZealot wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:07 pm
I don't think it will be endemic or seasonal. I say the waves will continue to ripple until... It disappears... (in trump voice). That's my prediction all things considered. I'm giving it maybe three more years... 2024..

A few years down the road if the "will covid-19 affect the 2025 seasom thread?" exists.... Then... Shoot me a private message to come for my lashings.
Assuming the virus remains in circulation, it won't be referred to as Covid, it'll just be considered to be a "seasonal flu bug" even though it's not a flu virus at all. The cases that end up with a fatality will no doubt have SAR-CoV-2 on the death certificate but the name will have fallen out of public use by then.
The name 'flu is actually short for viral influence, so it would be correct
The word influenza comes from Italian for "influence" because back in the middle ages people thought it was caused by weird stuff such as astrology because they knew nothing about viruses etc.

Influenza is caused by the influenza virus. There is a whole group of influenza viruses. The well known H1N1, H5N1, etc., are all varieties of influenzavirus A. They have their own genus - Alphainfluenzavirus - and the scientific name is Alphainfluenzavirus influenza A. There are three other genus for different influenza virus types, named (in original fashion) B, C and D.

So, no, calling an infection caused by Covid "flu" would be entirely incorrect. An infection caused by Covid would a SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

Which won't stop people calling it 'flu, of course. :lol:
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:15 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:48 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:18 pm

Assuming the virus remains in circulation, it won't be referred to as Covid, it'll just be considered to be a "seasonal flu bug" even though it's not a flu virus at all. The cases that end up with a fatality will no doubt have SAR-CoV-2 on the death certificate but the name will have fallen out of public use by then.
The name 'flu is actually short for viral influence, so it would be correct
The word influenza comes from Italian for "influence" because back in the middle ages people thought it was caused by weird stuff such as astrology because they knew nothing about viruses etc.

Influenza is caused by the influenza virus. There is a whole group of influenza viruses. The well known H1N1, H5N1, etc., are all varieties of influenzavirus A. They have their own genus - Alphainfluenzavirus - and the scientific name is Alphainfluenzavirus influenza A. There are three other genus for different influenza virus types, named (in original fashion) B, C and D.

So, no, calling an infection caused by Covid "flu" would be entirely incorrect. An infection caused by Covid would a SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

Which won't stop people calling it 'flu, of course. :lol:
I have to disagree with you, Viral influenzas is literally being under the influence of a virus, but there we go I will not argue with you.

What I will do, and please excuse me all as this is nothing at all to do with motorsport, but a very good watch, is post this here
It is a graphic representation of immunity by vaccination, or possibly what would eventually happen if no one was vaccinated bit much of the population had immunity through having had it previously
We are standing on the shoulders of Giants. So don't kick.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:58 pm
BTW, in case anyone thinks I'm a Covid fear monger.
I'm in an above-low risk group as I'm almost 50 (only a few days to go!) and I have high blood pressure. That puts me 1 or 2% above you in the risk of dying from it.

I work in a field that has had to carry on and so I've been working throughout, travelling to visit sites etc. Don't have much choice about that, sadly, as I couldn't get any of the financial help offered by the Government. Ah well.

I don't have a problem with trying to protect the vulnerable although I do increasingly wonder if the long term financial hit - which will affect the young most - is worth it to protect the very old. I was surprised to see how many old people there are in the UK.
There are nearly 12 million (11,989,322) people aged 65 and above in the UK of which:
o 5.4 million people are aged 75+,
o 1.6 million are aged 85+,
o Over 500,000 people are 90+ (579,776)
o 14,430 are centenarians (ONS, 2018f, 2018e)
https://www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/a ... tsheet.pdf

That's 12 million out of 66 million. c.18% of the population is over 65. That's quite surprising and, of course, why it's been so difficult to protect/vaccinate them all. My parents are still alive but I haven't seen them in over a year as, being at risk of picking up the virus owing to my work, I'm staying well away from them.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"