Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Tommy Cookers wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:07 pm
politics schmolitics !!

iirc the Pfizer 'vaccine testing' found that .....
106 people died without the vaccine and 6 died with the vaccine - hence the benefit quantified as 95% or whatever
a 95% reduction in the chances of death I can understand

afaik the AZ Oxford 'vaccine testing' had 1? death without the vaccine and none with
how was that a 'test programme' ?
RETRO-EDIT - the Lancet article 8th Dec says ....
'we cannot infer efficacy in older adults'
(only 12% were 55 or over - and none of these had the dosage that 'was' to be adopted as more efficacious)
NOTE but the UK has just now chosen a 12 week interval between initial and final dose

otherwise having a 10-15% chance of dying from Covid exposure I need to know what I do after getting Oxford-vaccinated
carry on hiding (unless buying food) until almost the entire UK population has been vaccinated ? .....

just asking what seems to be a simple engineer-type question .....
and thanks though for all the responses .....
They were not just looking at deaths, they also looked at infection rates, hospital admission rates, ICU rates and antibody levels in the blood.

Death rates, while tragic aren't the problem at the moment, hospital bed occupancy is.
Bring on the EV revolution!!

DChemTech
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Also, the fraction of patients with long-term health issues seems to receive comparatively little attention. If a lot of people have diminished health for a substantial period after their illness (or potentially forever), that is an issue, whether you look at it from an economic perspective or from a perspective of well-being. It's not a binary problem where a patient either dies or does not, yet in many discussions it is presented as such.
Last edited by DChemTech on Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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henry
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Good point @DchemTech. At least one of my friends has long term side effects, 7 months of muscle pains and fatigue, that may prevent her from dance teaching in the future. Potentially both a financial and emotional hardship.

So long as the virus is at large all of those involved in an F1 race will run the risk of contracting long Covid and, depending on the nature of the long term symptoms, might no longer be able to mechanic, drive, supervise etc to the level they do now.

In the U.K. the Office for National statistics has just started, Dec 16, to analyse Long Covid, they intend to publish results alongside mortality in future bulletins. Current first cut estimate is 10% of infected have symptoms longer than 12 weeks
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DChemTech
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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henry wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:30 pm
Good point @DchemTech. At least one of my friends has long term side effects, 7 months of muscle pains and fatigue, that may prevent her from dance teaching in the future. Potentially both a financial and emotional hardship.

So long as the virus is at large all of those involved in an F1 race will run the risk of contracting long Covid and, depending on the nature of the long term symptoms, might no longer be able to mechanic, drive, supervise etc to the level they do now.

In the U.K. the Office for National statistics has just started, Dec 16, to analyse Long Covid, they intend to publish results alongside mortality in future bulletins. Current first cut estimate is 10% of infected have symptoms longer than 12 weeks
Thanks for the example! I don't have examples in my direct surrounding (luckily), but indeed know of some friends-of-friends having longer term issues, typically being able to work no longer than 2-3h a day, some 3 months after the imminent illness ended - all in their mid-30ies (and in good health, one being an avid long-distance runner). So if the symptoms persist, they have quite some time to go, still. But no idea on the statistics; I did some quick searching before but couldn't really find clear answers - just some ballpark indications as well, in the 5-15% range typically. Which, altogether, is a significant amount of people... Good to see research is dedicated towards quantifying these long-term patients more accurately, it's a blind spot that needs to be resolved in order to better estimate the impact of the virus (and the need of strict action).

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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I had a patient the other week who, prior to contracting Covid worked as a healthcare professional and, amongst other hobbies, was a keen cyclist. He is in his early 40s and was previously known to be fit and well with the model of a healthy lifestyle - he didn't even drink or smoke. He was exactly the sort of person who should have been able to fight it off easily.

He contracted Covid in April and ended up in ICU on a ventilator. As a result of the severity of his illness he suffered a hypoxic brain injury and now has cognitive impairments meaning he will never be able to return to his previous profession, indeed may never work again. He also suffered lung damage meaning that his fitness will never return to what it was.

Deaths are just a tiny part of the impact.

And that's before we look at increased mental health incidence and suicide rates amongst healthcare staff in the last 12 months.
Bring on the EV revolution!!

aran.vtec
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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adrianjordan wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:52 pm
I had a patient the other week who, prior to contracting Covid worked as a healthcare professional and, amongst other hobbies, was a keen cyclist. He is in his early 40s and was previously known to be fit and well with the model of a healthy lifestyle - he didn't even drink or smoke. He was exactly the sort of person who should have been able to fight it off easily.

He contracted Covid in April and ended up in ICU on a ventilator. As a result of the severity of his illness he suffered a hypoxic brain injury and now has cognitive impairments meaning he will never be able to return to his previous profession, indeed may never work again. He also suffered lung damage meaning that his fitness will never return to what it was.

Deaths are just a tiny part of the impact.

And that's before we look at increased mental health incidence and suicide rates amongst healthcare staff in the last 12 months.
the effects of Covid has less todo with how healthy and fit the person is and more todo with your natural immune system 1st world countries where people have had easy access to doctors, hospitals and live in clean healthy environments are far more effected by the people living in 3rd world countries where over the years have been exposed to all various diseases and sickness

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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aran.vtec wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:31 am
the effects of Covid has less todo with how healthy and fit the person is and more todo with your natural immune system 1st world countries where people have had easy access to doctors, hospitals and live in clean healthy environments are far more effected by the people living in 3rd world countries where over the years have been exposed to all various diseases and sickness
I think that's very much speculation at this point....

Jolle
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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aran.vtec wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:31 am
adrianjordan wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:52 pm
I had a patient the other week who, prior to contracting Covid worked as a healthcare professional and, amongst other hobbies, was a keen cyclist. He is in his early 40s and was previously known to be fit and well with the model of a healthy lifestyle - he didn't even drink or smoke. He was exactly the sort of person who should have been able to fight it off easily.

He contracted Covid in April and ended up in ICU on a ventilator. As a result of the severity of his illness he suffered a hypoxic brain injury and now has cognitive impairments meaning he will never be able to return to his previous profession, indeed may never work again. He also suffered lung damage meaning that his fitness will never return to what it was.

Deaths are just a tiny part of the impact.

And that's before we look at increased mental health incidence and suicide rates amongst healthcare staff in the last 12 months.
the effects of Covid has less todo with how healthy and fit the person is and more todo with your natural immune system 1st world countries where people have had easy access to doctors, hospitals and live in clean healthy environments are far more effected by the people living in 3rd world countries where over the years have been exposed to all various diseases and sickness
Uhm... no? That is a very one sided and twisted reality. In the western world our immune system is boosted by vaccines, good health and living close together (and stuff like schools, childcare, office buildings, public transport). The western world has much more interactions and that’s the reason why a virus spreads so fast.
Also, with any novel virus, we don’t have an immune system against it yet. That’s why we have to stay away from each other and get a jab. Compare it to HIV, nobody ever said: I don’t need a condom, I’ve eaten my greens today.

aran.vtec
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Jolle wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:26 am
aran.vtec wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:31 am
adrianjordan wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:52 pm
I had a patient the other week who, prior to contracting Covid worked as a healthcare professional and, amongst other hobbies, was a keen cyclist. He is in his early 40s and was previously known to be fit and well with the model of a healthy lifestyle - he didn't even drink or smoke. He was exactly the sort of person who should have been able to fight it off easily.

He contracted Covid in April and ended up in ICU on a ventilator. As a result of the severity of his illness he suffered a hypoxic brain injury and now has cognitive impairments meaning he will never be able to return to his previous profession, indeed may never work again. He also suffered lung damage meaning that his fitness will never return to what it was.

Deaths are just a tiny part of the impact.

And that's before we look at increased mental health incidence and suicide rates amongst healthcare staff in the last 12 months.
the effects of Covid has less todo with how healthy and fit the person is and more todo with your natural immune system 1st world countries where people have had easy access to doctors, hospitals and live in clean healthy environments are far more effected by the people living in 3rd world countries where over the years have been exposed to all various diseases and sickness
Uhm... no? That is a very one sided and twisted reality. In the western world our immune system is boosted by vaccines, good health and living close together (and stuff like schools, childcare, office buildings, public transport). The western world has much more interactions and that’s the reason why a virus spreads so fast.
Also, with any novel virus, we don’t have an immune system against it yet. That’s why we have to stay away from each other and get a jab. Compare it to HIV, nobody ever said: I don’t need a condom, I’ve eaten my greens today.

uhm have you seen how people live in africa? They travel +- 20 people inside a 14 seater taxi (mini bus) Those same people live in +-10m2 shacks where they share 4-5 people inside without running water most without even electricity, There is the highest percentage of HIV/aids in Africa, Health care is not easily accessible as in the Western world yet covid is not killing/spreading any worse than in the western world maybe less? I know all this cause I live here I see it daily some of us are fortunate that we can social distance we live a sort of "western world" type lifestyle but millions don't and cant unfortunately.

DChemTech
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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There can be many reasons why fewer cases are reported in African countries. There is probably less ability to test, and less urgency to test. Registrations of deaths/cases may not be accurate. Perhaps the warmer climate helps - many European countries showed strong dips in case numbers in summer, whether it was due to the temperature itself or due to people spending more time in the (well ventilated) outdoors. And yes, demographic reasons may play a role, in both directions. More malnutrition could make people more susceptible, on the other hand, there may be fewer people in other risk groups, as lower healthcare standards may impact the longevity of those risk-groups. Many factors at play, so let's not jump to conclusions.

Jolle
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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aran.vtec wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:04 am
Jolle wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:26 am
aran.vtec wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:31 am


the effects of Covid has less todo with how healthy and fit the person is and more todo with your natural immune system 1st world countries where people have had easy access to doctors, hospitals and live in clean healthy environments are far more effected by the people living in 3rd world countries where over the years have been exposed to all various diseases and sickness
Uhm... no? That is a very one sided and twisted reality. In the western world our immune system is boosted by vaccines, good health and living close together (and stuff like schools, childcare, office buildings, public transport). The western world has much more interactions and that’s the reason why a virus spreads so fast.
Also, with any novel virus, we don’t have an immune system against it yet. That’s why we have to stay away from each other and get a jab. Compare it to HIV, nobody ever said: I don’t need a condom, I’ve eaten my greens today.

uhm have you seen how people live in africa? They travel +- 20 people inside a 14 seater taxi (mini bus) Those same people live in +-10m2 shacks where they share 4-5 people inside without running water most without even electricity, There is the highest percentage of HIV/aids in Africa, Health care is not easily accessible as in the Western world yet covid is not killing/spreading any worse than in the western world maybe less? I know all this cause I live here I see it daily some of us are fortunate that we can social distance we live a sort of "western world" type lifestyle but millions don't and cant unfortunately.
Those 20 people on 14 seater taxis is how we everyday go to work, it’s called public transport and not a tiny percentage of the population recorded by a travel program. It’s already proven how denser the population how much faster this virus spreads. There why cities, next to Bible Belt areas (where people sit close in church) are the biggest hotspots. The amount of contacts we (in the westen world) daily on average is much higher then anywhere. The amount of (social) contacts rise with the amount of wealth of a country. Most people in Africa, large parts of Asia, Southern America and the poor parts of Russia never leave their village or even home. Just before the lockdown I was in contact with around different 500 people on a daily basis on average (I live in a medium sized town in the city center). When I was living in a small and poor village in the north of the Netherlands, that was the whole village and for months on end nobody traveled in or out.

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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DChemTech wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:13 am
There can be many reasons why fewer cases are reported in African countries. There is probably less ability to test, and less urgency to test. Registrations of deaths/cases may not be accurate. Perhaps the warmer climate helps - many European countries showed strong dips in case numbers in summer, whether it was due to the temperature itself or due to people spending more time in the (well ventilated) outdoors. And yes, demographic reasons may play a role, in both directions. More malnutrition could make people more susceptible, on the other hand, there may be fewer people in other risk groups, as lower healthcare standards may impact the longevity of those risk-groups. Many factors at play, so let's not jump to conclusions.
aran.vtec forgot the demographic most predictive of Covid risk - age.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _structure (sort by over 65).

This reminds me of the old statistical reasoning fallacy best exemplified by the observation that 'height is not correlated with basketball success (in the NBA)'

edit: not to imply age is the sole cause - there are many risk factors and measurement effects

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:43 am
DChemTech wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:13 am
There can be many reasons why fewer cases are reported in African countries. There is probably less ability to test, and less urgency to test. Registrations of deaths/cases may not be accurate. Perhaps the warmer climate helps - many European countries showed strong dips in case numbers in summer, whether it was due to the temperature itself or due to people spending more time in the (well ventilated) outdoors. And yes, demographic reasons may play a role, in both directions. More malnutrition could make people more susceptible, on the other hand, there may be fewer people in other risk groups, as lower healthcare standards may impact the longevity of those risk-groups. Many factors at play, so let's not jump to conclusions.
aran.vtec forgot the demographic most predictive of Covid risk - age.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _structure (sort by over 65).

This reminds me of the old statistical reasoning fallacy best exemplified by the observation that 'height is not correlated with basketball success (in the NBA)'

edit: not to imply age is the sole cause - there are many risk factors and measurement effects
But this does not tie in with the 'resistance' thing. Older people should be very much more resilient than younger ones as compared to 60 or 70 years ago our current environment is almost sterile. You could change the air in the house with a shovel 80-90 years ago and these are the most at risk group. My great gran had a pump out the back for water and a toilet in a shed down the garden.
We are standing on the shoulders of Giants. So don't kick.

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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:43 am
DChemTech wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:13 am
There can be many reasons why fewer cases are reported in African countries. There is probably less ability to test, and less urgency to test. Registrations of deaths/cases may not be accurate. Perhaps the warmer climate helps - many European countries showed strong dips in case numbers in summer, whether it was due to the temperature itself or due to people spending more time in the (well ventilated) outdoors. And yes, demographic reasons may play a role, in both directions. More malnutrition could make people more susceptible, on the other hand, there may be fewer people in other risk groups, as lower healthcare standards may impact the longevity of those risk-groups. Many factors at play, so let's not jump to conclusions.
aran.vtec forgot the demographic most predictive of Covid risk - age.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _structure (sort by over 65).

This reminds me of the old statistical reasoning fallacy best exemplified by the observation that 'height is not correlated with basketball success (in the NBA)'

edit: not to imply age is the sole cause - there are many risk factors and measurement effects
the age demographic in Africa ?
populations increase by adding young people not by adding old people

the UK proclaims treating the '50+' aged (and the younger with underlying conditions)
that's 30 million so 60 million vaccinations

Jolle
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Big Tea wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:16 pm
nzjrs wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:43 am
DChemTech wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:13 am
There can be many reasons why fewer cases are reported in African countries. There is probably less ability to test, and less urgency to test. Registrations of deaths/cases may not be accurate. Perhaps the warmer climate helps - many European countries showed strong dips in case numbers in summer, whether it was due to the temperature itself or due to people spending more time in the (well ventilated) outdoors. And yes, demographic reasons may play a role, in both directions. More malnutrition could make people more susceptible, on the other hand, there may be fewer people in other risk groups, as lower healthcare standards may impact the longevity of those risk-groups. Many factors at play, so let's not jump to conclusions.
aran.vtec forgot the demographic most predictive of Covid risk - age.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _structure (sort by over 65).

This reminds me of the old statistical reasoning fallacy best exemplified by the observation that 'height is not correlated with basketball success (in the NBA)'

edit: not to imply age is the sole cause - there are many risk factors and measurement effects
But this does not tie in with the 'resistance' thing. Older people should be very much more resilient than younger ones as compared to 60 or 70 years ago our current environment is almost sterile. You could change the air in the house with a shovel 80-90 years ago and these are the most at risk group. My great gran had a pump out the back for water and a toilet in a shed down the garden.
Don’t confuse bacteria, poisons and bad health with virussen and our increase in social interactions. Our grandparents grew up in a world with just half the people around and less bars, restaurants, far less commuting, festivals and so on. Just school, the shop and the factory. Cities grew exponentially during the last century. And if you put animals or humans close together...