2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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LM10
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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Vasconia wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:56 am
LM10 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:29 am
If you read Binotto’s quotes it does not say that they have or had the highest top speed. It’s the reporter who wrote that Ferrari was one of the the cars with highest top speeds in testing.
The only clear interpretation is that they don´t have that deficit anymore, which means the PU should be good, maybe not at 2019s level but if it is as good as it was in 2018, it would be a very positive improvement.
Marc Gene told that he does not think Ferrari recovered all, but much of what was lost in 2019.

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etusch
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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mzso wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:25 am

The rule of probability. The car is mostly the same as last year to begin with, and I doubt they forgot how to design good aero during last year. The cost cap wasn't in place and they openly said that they started developing for this year, early on.
Meanwhile were producing dud after dud, the past several years. As well as going near bankrupt and changing ownership.

It's not 2022 yet, where everything's possible.
It is not important if the rule just interested with floor. If new floor need new concept and if any other team including williams is better at it then everything is possible. For example if this new floor rule gives advantage to high rake concept then can mercedes do better job than redbull who are working on it for years by just starting early on ?
The car is mostly same but mercedes are behind redbull after small changes at last race of last year. floor and diffuser is important part of car and this can affect badly mersedes's concept; front from last year and rear designed for this year.
These are just my assumptions. I don't say mercedes is bad but for sure they are not as good as they are at previous seasons. Why it is so hard to accept this ? Tests are not saying whole story but tests are not hallucination too
Last edited by etusch on Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Vasconia
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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LM10 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:01 pm
Vasconia wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:56 am
LM10 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:29 am


If you read Binotto’s quotes it does not say that they have or had the highest top speed. It’s the reporter who wrote that Ferrari was one of the the cars with highest top speeds in testing.
The only clear interpretation is that they don´t have that deficit anymore, which means the PU should be good, maybe not at 2019s level but if it is as good as it was in 2018, it would be a very positive improvement.
Marc Gene told that he does not think Ferrari recovered all, but much of what was lost in 2019.
Taking into account that in 2019 they had the best UP, if this "much of" is really a lot it should be enough.

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djos
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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mzso wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:25 am
etusch wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:12 am
Fulcrum wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:20 am
Considering the 1-lap 'pace' of the Williams is apparently within a tenth of Mercedes, I think we can comfortably ignore the times.
Is there a rule prevent Williams to compete with Mercedes and prevent Mercedes to build a bad car. What if new floor rule spoilt all advantage of Mercedes ? Why nobody can not accept that Mercedes can build a bad car?
The rule of probability. The car is mostly the same as last year to begin with, and I doubt they forgot how to design good aero during last year. The cost cap wasn't in place and they openly said that they started developing for this year, early on.
Meanwhile were producing dud after dud, the past several years. As well as going near bankrupt and changing ownership.

It's not 2022 yet, where everything's possible.
The cost cap is in place for this years car development. This means it would be harder for them to catch up if they have a car issue.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

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Bandit1216
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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MKlaus wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:30 am
JordanMugen wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:50 am
The notion Red Bull will never, ever be able to build the best car "because they are not Mercedes" is also one without basis. :wink:
its been 7 years that they haven't built one. its mercedes who have. until redbull wins the championship, they won't get that credit. certainly not on the basis of winter testing. let them prove it and people would respect back and i hope they do. but until then, they will be regarded as the second best.
Well, those first 4 years at least, it was the engine mainly. Can't really blame redbull fo not winning 2014 with 70php, less can you? I partly agree on the last few years. But even then it was 20hp behind also.

ferkan
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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RB created chassis which would have been WDC contending one, in 2014, 2016 and especially 2018 (where they had best chassis I think).

In 2020 they had made serious inroads to Merc by the last 1/3rd of season, but admittedly Merc didn't update the car since Spa. On the other hand, that doesn't mean much because IMO RB made right decision to develop car to the very last moment since most of it will be transferred to new one. It looks like RB just upped the form they had from late last year and got matching engine to boot. Could be very spicy this year for sure...

Fulcrum
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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etusch wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:12 am
Fulcrum wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:20 am
Considering the 1-lap 'pace' of the Williams is apparently within a tenth of Mercedes, I think we can comfortably ignore the times.
Is there a rule prevent Williams to compete with Mercedes and prevent Mercedes to build a bad car. What if new floor rule spoilt all advantage of Mercedes ? Why nobody can not accept that Mercedes can build a bad car?
Mercedes are the best staffed team on the grid, they have the best technical facilities, likely as not the best driver, and are the most well funded.
Only based on dominance right? there are many variables.
If, and it remains an if at this stage, they have a fundamental issue, they are the best placed team to diagnose it, solve it, and implement a fix within the shortest time frame.
They can find out and solve but will they do both overnight or will they winn last race of season ?
That said, I see no evidence of an issue. Teething issues are normal, especially considering they didn't do a pre-test filming run.
teething issue at a car mainly transferred from previous season at a team started to work on this car earlier than main rivals?


Its much more likely to be the case that many people would like to see a more competitive year of racing, and are jumping on any semblance of a problem to confirm their biases.
so what is your base, being Mercedes fan? or a belief that teachs what happened last year must be happen this year too dominance?
Common sense, and likelihood.

Addressing your points:

There is no 'rule' preventing Williams from competing with Mercedes, but there is a reasonable basis in evidence that this is incredibly unlikely.

Beyond the issues of being under-funded, under-staffed, having a huge deficit of both intellectual and technical resources, and having a history of producing absolutely atrocious cars, they remain a non-works team. It is a fact that only Red Bull have out performed the works team, Renault, during this era of regulations.

Secondly Mercedes staff, funding, drivers and facilities haven't suddenly deteriorated. If there were an issue, they would be best placed to self-correct quicker than other teams, including Red Bull.

I am no Mercedes fan, I am not a Hamilton or Wolff fan. Read some of my responses in the 'Hamilton' threads for confirmation.

That said, I'm neither blind enough, nor stupid enough, to attach much weight to timesheets that suggest Alfa Romeo is faster than Mercedes, that Williams is as fast, that a rookie driver is close to 2 seconds quicker than Gasly, or that Aston is 3-6 seconds off the pace. One anomaly, fair enough. Several, and it becomes difficult to consider credible.

I will quite happily enjoy being wrong, but I don't think Mercedes have shown their cards yet.

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Zynerji
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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ferkan wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:26 pm
RB created chassis which would have been WDC contending one, in 2014, 2016 and especially 2018 (where they had best chassis I think).

In 2020 they had made serious inroads to Merc by the last 1/3rd of season, but admittedly Merc didn't update the car since Spa. On the other hand, that doesn't mean much because IMO RB made right decision to develop car to the very last moment since most of it will be transferred to new one. It looks like RB just upped the form they had from late last year and got matching engine to boot. Could be very spicy this year for sure...
My conspiracy theory is that if RBR would have taken Honda power in 2018 with STR, they would have challenged for WDC.

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NathanOlder
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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Zynerji wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:52 pm
ferkan wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:26 pm
RB created chassis which would have been WDC contending one, in 2014, 2016 and especially 2018 (where they had best chassis I think).

In 2020 they had made serious inroads to Merc by the last 1/3rd of season, but admittedly Merc didn't update the car since Spa. On the other hand, that doesn't mean much because IMO RB made right decision to develop car to the very last moment since most of it will be transferred to new one. It looks like RB just upped the form they had from late last year and got matching engine to boot. Could be very spicy this year for sure...
My conspiracy theory is that if RBR would have taken Honda power in 2018 with STR, they would have challenged for WDC.
How would they have done that with a bundle of engine penalties. Wasn't that what STR did in 2018? I guess we all love a good conspiracy theory :D
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Juzh
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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some people were curious so here it is. top 20 speed traps over all 3 days:
330 NIS
329 RIC
329 RIC
329 VET
329 NIS
328 RIC
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 RAI
328 GAS
328 NIS
328 NIS
328 NIS
327 RIC

All these were achieved on day 1 already.

thanks to Oehrly of course and his excellent data collection efforts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =551258756

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El Scorchio
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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Juzh wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:04 pm
some people were curious so here it is. top 20 speed traps over all 3 days:
330 NIS
329 RIC
329 RIC
329 VET
329 NIS
328 RIC
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 VET
328 RAI
328 GAS
328 NIS
328 NIS
328 NIS
327 RIC

All these were achieved on day 1 already.

thanks to Oehrly of course and his excellent data collection efforts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =551258756
17/20 Mercedes powered, yet not one from the works team.

mzso
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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Bandit1216 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:18 pm
MKlaus wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:30 am
JordanMugen wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:50 am
The notion Red Bull will never, ever be able to build the best car "because they are not Mercedes" is also one without basis. :wink:
its been 7 years that they haven't built one. its mercedes who have. until redbull wins the championship, they won't get that credit. certainly not on the basis of winter testing. let them prove it and people would respect back and i hope they do. but until then, they will be regarded as the second best.
Well, those first 4 years at least, it was the engine mainly. Can't really blame redbull fo not winning 2014 with 70php, less can you? I partly agree on the last few years. But even then it was 20hp behind also.
Yeah... How would he know? They might have had the best car any time in the first few years of the hybrid era.

It's similar to the foolishnes of "the best drivers get in the best cars". Of course this is just survivorship bias, or something similar. Those with inferior technology can't show their talent or develop near as much as the ones in much better cars. For all we know Hülkenberg would be 7 times champion if Mercedes couldn't sign Hamilton in 2013

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etusch
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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Fulcrum wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:50 pm


There is no 'rule' preventing Williams from competing with Mercedes, but there is a reasonable basis in evidence that this is incredibly unlikely.

Beyond the issues of being under-funded, under-staffed, having a huge deficit of both intellectual and technical resources, and having a history of producing absolutely atrocious cars, they remain a non-works team. It is a fact that only Red Bull have out performed the works team, Renault, during this era of regulations.

Secondly Mercedes staff, funding, drivers and facilities haven't suddenly deteriorated. If there were an issue, they would be best placed to self-correct quicker than other teams, including Red Bull.

I am no Mercedes fan, I am not a Hamilton or Wolff fan. Read some of my responses in the 'Hamilton' threads for confirmation.

That said, I'm neither blind enough, nor stupid enough, to attach much weight to timesheets that suggest Alfa Romeo is faster than Mercedes, that Williams is as fast, that a rookie driver is close to 2 seconds quicker than Gasly, or that Aston is 3-6 seconds off the pace. One anomaly, fair enough. Several, and it becomes difficult to consider credible.

I will quite happily enjoy being wrong, but I don't think Mercedes have shown their cards yet.
reasonable basis ? Think about brawn gp. I think this is enough.
Were Ferrari or Redbull facilities suddenly deteriorated and then they lost dominance ?
Why a rookie can not beat experienced one. Didn't hamilton got same CC points with Alonso at his first season ?
What makes you think that it is so easy to find out what mercedes's issue. Maybe they will not able to find out their issue until new rules. If their experience and so long lasting dominance is your base, if how good they are as a team is your base, if they suddenly didn't forget how to design a good car, then what is your explanation of this situation. Why so good team made such a mistake ?

mzso
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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Zynerji wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:52 pm
My conspiracy theory is that if RBR would have taken Honda power in 2018 with STR, they would have challenged for WDC.
The way I remember if 2018 was a year of massive improvement with many PU swaps. Making up for what was impossible with the toxic circumstances (aka Alonso, Brown and Boullier) at McLaren...
So I don't think so.

mzso
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Re: 2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

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mzso wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:18 pm
reasonable basis ? Think about brawn gp. I think this is enough.

Were Ferrari or Redbull facilities suddenly deteriorated and then they lost dominance ?
Not even close. That was during a major regulation change, development happened with a big Honda budget over years. Plus McLaren and Ferrari were fighting for the very end the preceding year. Plus double diffuser.

RB wasn't near dominant, so that's nonsense. And they were one of those who missed the double diffuser trick. And they in fact had the best car after they implemented the DD.

In 2022 many of the same factors might be present. Or it might be that Mercedes gets it right the first try, and the rest will play catch-up.