Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[strad]

I understand but I don't think there are enough Tesla/EV miles to make a direct comparison.

[subcritical71]

I understand but I don't think there are enough Tesla/EV miles to make a direct comparison.

True, I hear you , but you would think a new product/technology would be worse off in its early iterations than a century old technology that is very mature (and 11 times more likely to have a fire than those pesky battery cars). And when is enough miles to have reliable statistics?

• Oct 2016 - 3 billion miles

• Dec 2016 - 3.5 billion miles

• Mar 2017 - 4 billion miles

• Jul 2017 - 5 billion miles

• Apr 2018 - 7.2 billion miles

• Sep 2018 - 9 billion miles

• Expected Nov 2018 - 10 billion miles

Those are Tesla numbers, but they (all EV manufacturers) are starting to really gain experience.

[AJI]

I understand but I don't think there are enough Tesla/EV miles to make a direct comparison.

And the Ford Pinto skews the results

[strad]

Just to play devils advocate...
How many billion miles do you think petrol powered cars have traveled?
Petrol being highly flammable I'm pretty sure there have been more gas fires though.
I do wonder if we had access how the numbers would be skewed by poor maintenance like leaky fuel lines etc.

[subcritical71]

Just to play devils advocate...
How many billion miles do you think petrol powered cars have traveled?
Petrol being highly flammable I'm pretty sure there have been more gas fires though.
I do wonder if we had access how the numbers would be skewed by poor maintenance like leaky fuel lines etc.

that would be an interesting number!

[Cold Fussion]

I do not know a lot about this subject and a few things confuse me.

Unless its nuclear, isn't the energy used to create the electric in the first place just as bad as the petrol used in a traditional car?

And is there a big impact on the environment with disposal of the batteries at the end?

And are all the fancy batteries inherently less safe? (i'm thinking fires with lithium ones etc)

Even in the extreme case where all transportation went full electric and there was no emissions reduction as a result, it would still have a very large local benefit in cities as the pollution (of all types) would be dramatically lower.

[Tommy Cookers]

Even in the extreme case where all transportation went full electric and there was no emissions reduction as a result, it would still have a very large local benefit in cities as the pollution (of all types) would be dramatically lower.

possibly not when eg as in London today there's millions of super 'save-the-world' wood-burning heaters
producing 75% of the current atmospheric particulates
and billions always being spent on unnecessary but lucrative demolition and new construction
in 1832 the railways were banned from putting tracks through central London
now they're spending 50 billion building them under the city in 30 mile concrete tunnels - CO2 emissions anybody ?
anyway London's air is cleaner now than ever before

as a lifetime-chosen non-citydweller I regard the cds as self-referential a**holes
99% of them have big cars so they can do 300 miles - and think public transport is for the other guy
their moaning is music to my ears

100 years ago every US city had local 'power' plants supplying CHP - electricity and waste steam heat at 70% efficiency
and the cowtowns had no power plants and used kerosene for lighting etc
then local power was banned (to force the power companies out from the cities and to electrify the country)
fashion was always a big element of public opinion

notice this time it wasn't me who took us off-thread

[Big Tea]

Just to play devils advocate...
How many billion miles do you think petrol powered cars have traveled?
Petrol being highly flammable I'm pretty sure there have been more gas fires though.
I do wonder if we had access how the numbers would be skewed by poor maintenance like leaky fuel lines etc.

By the same token, they should be compared with petrol cars in their first decade, injury compared to miles on horseback, recycling and pollution compared to horse and cart etc

Also Devils advocate

[Andres125sx]

I do not know a lot about this subject and a few things confuse me.

Unless its nuclear, isn't the energy used to create the electric in the first place just as bad as the petrol used in a traditional car?

Actually, it´s the other way around. Unless it´s coal, any electricity production is cleaner to petrol on ICEs. And even if it´s coal, it´s pretty similar but still lower.... and that´s with biased analysis wich compare electricity production and use with only the final use of petrol, but ignore pollution caused by oil wells, refineries, tankers.... to produce and distribute petrol

Also, on those biased comparisons they always compare CO2, but ignore all the rest of toxic substances wich ICEs emit, like NOx, particles, etc.

And are all the fancy batteries inherently less safe? (i'm thinking fires with lithium ones etc)

Less safe than 50 litres of a highly flamable and explosive liquid stored under the butt of passengers? I doubt it

[loner]

whats your take on solid-state battery

Fisker recently started another eponymous car company — this time called Fisker, Inc. — that is focused on all-electric vehicles. And while he flirted with using LG’s automotive lithium-ion batteries to power his forthcoming electric supercar, dubbed “Emotion,” Fisker tells The Verge his new company is now just a few months away from putting the finishing touches on the final design for a scalable solid-state battery that will power the sedan instead.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/16/1769 ... ctric-cars

few months away he says...

[Just_a_fan]

Less safe than 50 litres of a highly flamable and explosive liquid stored under the butt of passengers? I doubt it

Welllll, petrol isn't actually flammable or explosive. Petrol vapour with oxygen? Oh yes!

[Big Tea]

Less safe than 50 litres of a highly flamable and explosive liquid stored under the butt of passengers? I doubt it

Welllll, petrol isn't actually flammable or explosive. Petrol vapour with oxygen? Oh yes!

Also, batteries tend to stay in one place when burning, not so petrol.

[munudeges]

There's a lot to like about electric vehicles, but it depends on where the electricity come from. What is certain is a large, large leap is required in the amount of energy batteries can store, and cars need to get lighter as a result.

What is lost in all of this is how much evolution there has been in IC engines over the past two or three decades. They are now more efficient than they were thirty years ago even with heavier cars and much more drag. A jump in materials such as graphene could see very small, even more efficient, high RPM IC engines being produced.

[strad]

50sNash got over 30Mpg
50s 5 passenger Henry J got 25 to 30MPG
50s Willys got 35MPG
50s Nash Healy 35 MPG
I could go on.
Other than styling etc I don't think we've seen "" more efficient than they were thirty years ago even with heavier cars and much more drag. .
Those cars were very heavy, made out of real steel, and a lot of drag.
We should have seen much better gains.

[Big Tea]

I saw an ad for the Nissan lief (electric) today and it claims 'one peddle'?

Press to go, lift to stop. Does this mean that if your foot slips or you sneeze you get rear ended?

(https://www.nissan.co.uk/vehicles/new-v ... html#POWER)