Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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DChemTech
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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J.A.W. wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:00 am
Actually, a litre of petrol may be 'priced' so exorbitantly, in a form of tax-grab,
but what % of this extorted funding is used to subsidise vehicle electrification?
Good point, but also a rather tricky one. One could also regard a tax on petrol as a pollution levy (currently, it's not used as such either), and on that basis ask "what should a litre of petrol cost when we include socio-ecologic impacts" (or in other words, what is the 'true price' of petrol, including life cycle costs'. This question inherently borders on policy, but I'll try to avoid that angle (my preemptive apologies if I do cross the line somewhere).

The question is notoriously hard to answer - there are short-term impact in terms of health (dust/respiratory), direct environmental damages (oil leaks, general landscape damage due to mining), and the long term impacts due to CO2. For all, probably estimates have been made, but I am most aware of the latter.

The estimates vary widely, from a ~$50/ton to several thousands of dollars per ton. A recent estimate based on a macro-economic analysis, using the most likely IPCC scenario with a retuned version of Nordhaus' DICE model, comes to ca. $420/ton CO2. As burning 1 liter of petrol emits ca. 3 kg of CO2, the CO2 cost alone would be 3 x 0.42 = 1.26$/litre (using this model). And most likely, this approach is under-estimating: the DICE model assumes the macro-economic impact of local temperature is a smooth function (not accounting for tipping points), and if I'm not mistaken, a linear function. That's all rather unlikely; when the temperature gets close to the point where sweating can't cool a human body anymore, economic activity will be impaired much more severely. And that limit is more and more frequently hit in parts of the middle-east and south-(east) Asia.

Now, as mentioned estimating the cost itself is notoriously hard (as it comes with future predictions on migration, crop impacts, etc. due to climate changes), and adding to that, the number is dependent on our action (as responses will be non-linear in reality). Still, having an estimate of these costs and including them in the petrol price (instead of 'blind' taxation) is essential. By including those costs, the polluter pays for their pollution. By not including them, the costs of pollution are put upon society as a whole (and disproportionally those in countries that added little to the pollution). And in case society pays, the bill only comes when the damage is already done - when the polluter pays, it is pre-emptive, and can be used to mitigate damages, by subsidising alternatives, as you mention, or otherwise. (oops, policy alert)

Also, without such a 'true price', economic comparisons between BEVs and petrol vehicles don't make much sense, as a large part of the real economic impact is omitted. Claims that 'BEVs can only compete with subsidy' generally forget that petrol vehicles are also effectively subsidised currently. Naturally, the requirement to allocate true costs goes both ways - BEVs also have their external costs that need to be accounted for.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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DChemTech wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:34 am

Also, without such a 'true price', economic comparisons between BEVs and petrol vehicles don't make much sense, as a large part of the real economic impact is omitted. Claims that 'BEVs can only compete with subsidy' generally forget that petrol vehicles are also effectively subsidised currently. Naturally, the requirement to allocate true costs goes both ways - BEVs also have their external costs that need to be accounted for.
An excellent point. The reality is that much of the lifestyle enjoyed by the "West"/"first world" countries is effectively subsidised by those in poor countries, either by having to work in poor conditions to make the goods bought by the richer countries, or by having much of the industrially-related environmental damage inflicted on their immediate environs e.g. mining, refining, etc.

If the people of the "west" had to pay the real cost of the items they used, they wouldn't buy nearly so much stuff as they couldn't afford it. Sadly, the people of the richer countries don't realise this. There is a lie that everyone can enjoy this great life style but the reality is that it is only possible for the few because the many pay the price. In effect, it's a version of the old European aristocracy - a few "elite" enjoying opulent life styles only because the vast majority toiled in squalor. All that has happened is that those who were once in squalor now enjoy the good things solely because others have taken on the toil in their place.

ICE cars and PHEV/BEV cars are just different expressions of that same imbalance. "Oh, look I'm saving the planet because I have an EV!".
Er, go tell these people that you're saving the planet. They're the ones paying the price.
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nzjrs
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:49 am
ICE cars and PHEV/BEV cars are just different expressions of that same imbalance.
Following up on a similar theme, I don't like that the argument is often framed around the TCO of a $40k BEV (plus elec cost) vs a $30K ICE and (the interesting note above about lifetime gasoline cost, $25k).

I'm not going to consider electric vehicles viable while we are pushed into the above comparison either by fashion or by regulation. I'm looking down the street at the dozen or so people who have $4000 clunkers and for whom TCO isn't a calculation they have the luxury of making - its about cash flow for many.

Keeping old cars on the road for a very long time has to be part of the calculus for viability, because I'm not going to regulate those people our of affordable access to transportation by talking to them about a 10K TCO delta above 30K - or making them give up their car and 'enjoy living in the city - not everyone needs a car'.

So, wrt. viability, it depends for whom you are talking about.

Yes, this is then tragedy of the commons, and it is condescending, and it is about sacrifice, and it's all of the above at once.

DChemTech
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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nzjrs wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:12 am


Keeping old cars on the road for a very long time has to be part of the calculus for viability, because I'm not going to regulate those people our of affordable access to transportation by talking to them about a 10K TCO delta above 30K - or making them give up their car and 'enjoy living in the city - not everyone needs a car'.
To make matters worse here, living inside the city center seems to be quite popular these days, and hence housing prices (that are already rising rapidly) are exploding there (at least, in NL). So the option of living in the city without a car is very much a luxury in itself, affordable only to those who could also buy a new car.

Still, environmental and 'social exploitation' costs of any car are very much real, and I would like to see them be included in the cost of goods to the best possible extend. The fact that this makes living more expensive and disproportionally hits the certain demographics is something that should be compensated by other means (e.g. progressive income tax, but then we go into policy again, so I'll end here).

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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on this page there's a lot of fine words on the matter of taxing road fuel at a climate-fair rate .... but ....

far more fossil fuel is used to make heat or to make electricity - without tax or with very little tax ....
and electricity is made largely by fossil fuel methods

pseudo-scientific gloss disguises a rigged system pretending BEVs use non-fossil electricity that doesn't exist
at present even the UK needs 2000% more non-fossil electricity than does exist

the 'developed' countries are essentially in this same position .... at best still pretending ....
Last edited by Tommy Cookers on Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DChemTech
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Tommy Cookers wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:42 pm
on this page there's a lot of fine words on the matter of taxing road fuel at a climate-fair rate .... but ....

far more fossil fuel is used to make heat or to make electricity - without tax or with very little tax ....
and electricity is made largely by fossil fuel methods

pseudo-scientific gloss disguises a rigged system pretending BEVs use non-fossil electricity that doesn't exist
at present even the UK needs 2000% more non-fossil electricity that does exist

the 'developed' countries are essentially in this same position .... at best still pretending ....
Of course, as I noted any inclusion of external costs applies as much to BEVs as to petrol-based, and in case of BEVs that does include levying environmental impacts of electricity generation. In case of 100% fossil supply, it's then essentially a matter of well-to-wheel efficiency. Beyond that, the projection of how fast fossil fuel will be replaced by alternatives becomes relevant, and potentially the notion that emissions can be more easily captured in stationary fossil power generation (which also becomes more lucrative if emission costs are accounted for).

gruntguru
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Tommy Cookers wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:42 pm
on this page there's a lot of fine words on the matter of taxing road fuel at a climate-fair rate .... but ....

far more fossil fuel is used to make heat or to make electricity - without tax or with very little tax ....
and electricity is made largely by fossil fuel methods

pseudo-scientific gloss disguises a rigged system pretending BEVs use non-fossil electricity that doesn't exist
at present even the UK needs 2000% more non-fossil electricity than does exist

the 'developed' countries are essentially in this same position .... at best still pretending ....
What about all the commitments to carbon neutrality by 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050 . . . . Are they all just hot air? https://www.visualcapitalist.com/race-t ... y-country/

If not - converting national fleets to EV will need to start now (albeit powered by fossil electricity) if the combination of 100% green electricity and 100% zero-carbon fleet is to be realised by 2050.
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:49 am
DChemTech wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:34 am

Also, without such a 'true price', economic comparisons between BEVs and petrol vehicles don't make much sense, as a large part of the real economic impact is omitted. Claims that 'BEVs can only compete with subsidy' generally forget that petrol vehicles are also effectively subsidised currently. Naturally, the requirement to allocate true costs goes both ways - BEVs also have their external costs that need to be accounted for.
An excellent point. The reality is that much of the lifestyle enjoyed by the "West"/"first world" countries is effectively subsidised by those in poor countries, either by having to work in poor conditions to make the goods bought by the richer countries, or by having much of the industrially-related environmental damage inflicted on their immediate environs e.g. mining, refining, etc.

If the people of the "west" had to pay the real cost of the items they used, they wouldn't buy nearly so much stuff as they couldn't afford it. Sadly, the people of the richer countries don't realise this. There is a lie that everyone can enjoy this great life style but the reality is that it is only possible for the few because the many pay the price. In effect, it's a version of the old European aristocracy - a few "elite" enjoying opulent life styles only because the vast majority toiled in squalor. All that has happened is that those who were once in squalor now enjoy the good things solely because others have taken on the toil in their place.

ICE cars and PHEV/BEV cars are just different expressions of that same imbalance. "Oh, look I'm saving the planet because I have an EV!".
Er, go tell these people that you're saving the planet. They're the ones paying the price.
https://files.americanexperiment.org/wp ... t-Kids.jpg
Love ya buddy, but this woke nonsense is a good bedtime story, but far from the actual truth.

It's about those that have power, and those that do not. The governments of the world are the only blame for these conditions. If the leader of the nation refused to sell out their people, they could reach the enlightenment of the West and flourish in a single generation.

We are only a generation from fully autonomous robots to do that kind of work.

gruntguru
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Nah. Would need to be the leaders of ALL nations. The underdeveloped nations can't (in a single generation) extract themselves from the chokehold exerted by the rich and powerful nations.

Of course there are rogue/backward ideologies holding countries back too eg "don't educate our girls."
je suis charlie

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hollus
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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/Politics off/

Thank you.
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Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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According to world sales and the year on year grown, looks like they´re viable despite all the valid arguments exposed in this thread

Image

https://www.ev-volumes.com/country/tota ... e-volumes/

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Andres125sx wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:09 am
According to world sales and the year on year grown, looks like they´re viable despite all the valid arguments exposed in this thread

https://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/u ... 2-2020.png

https://www.ev-volumes.com/country/tota ... e-volumes/
I'm going to guess that in many of those areas, it's PHEVs that dominate. They're a stepping stone technology and avoid the range/charging issues of pure EVs.
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Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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gruntguru wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:29 pm
What about all the commitments to carbon neutrality by 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050 . . . . Are they all just hot air? https://www.visualcapitalist.com/race-t ... y-country/
If not - converting national fleets to EV will need to start now (albeit powered by fossil electricity) if the combination of 100% green electricity and 100% zero-carbon fleet is to be realised by 2050.
100% green electricity and 100% zero-carbon fleet by 2050 won't meet the commitments ....

decarbonising heat production is necessary ... and ...
greatly reducing heat demand and then decarbonising heat is a far greater job (eg £1-£2 trillion for the UK)


we know typical ICEV use produces and dumps far more heat (exhaust and coolant) than useful output
enough to 'power' much domestic and workplace heating - if it wasn't dumped
this was a losing secret argument in 1980s European energy conservation doctrine .....

the winning secret argument being - EVs with batteries used overnight to handshake nuclear electrical 'power'
maybe present policy is some echo of that argument
the 1980s then brought advances in power electronics that enabled wind turbine generation etc

Greg Locock
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Oh they are viable so long as they are subsidised. Admittedly fewer BEVs have been sold than VW Beetles, or any of the other cars in this list. A few rich people drive around in them. A very few not so rich people drive around in them. The rest of us don't.

The sales listed below are in millions.

Car Sales
1. Toyota Corolla 37.5
2. Ford F-series 35
3. Volkswagen Golf 27.5
4. Volkswagen Beetle 23.5
5. Ford Escort (UK) 20
6. Honda Civic 18.5
7. Honda Accord 17.5
8. Ford Model T 16.5
9. Volkswagen Passat 15.5
10. Chevrolet Impala 14

All BEVs ever 9 million

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Greg Locock wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 2:18 am
Oh they are viable so long as they are subsidised. Admittedly fewer BEVs have been sold than VW Beetles, or any of the other cars in this list. A few rich people drive around in them. A very few not so rich people drive around in them. The rest of us don't.

The sales listed below are in millions.

Car Sales
1. Toyota Corolla 37.5
2. Ford F-series 35
3. Volkswagen Golf 27.5
4. Volkswagen Beetle 23.5
5. Ford Escort (UK) 20
6. Honda Civic 18.5
7. Honda Accord 17.5
8. Ford Model T 16.5
9. Volkswagen Passat 15.5
10. Chevrolet Impala 14

All BEVs ever 9 million
If sales are the main factor to analyse, then supercars are not viable either. Same for pickups, or we could go even further, any engine with more than 4 cylinders is not viable either. They´re very expensive and their sales numbers are so small they can´t be considered viable engines, right?


You guys keep confusing viability with "this will be good for 100% of people", and that´s a falacy. Nothing is good for 100% people, not even ICEV, but we don´t question if they´re viable or not. Any car above $30000 should never be considered viable, but we all see lots of cars even 5x more expensive than that daily in our roads.


Cost and sales do not determine viability. If they do, then, just as an example, Ferrari is not a viable brand, but I´m sure none of you would say this BS :wink: