Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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loner
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by loner » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:40 pm

all EV need is a breakthrough in charging and batteries which i believe is doable achievable very soon, R&D is gathering huge momentum...
para bellum.

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:50 pm

There one thing that got me thinking. The other day I was watching some science show and they were talking about how the batteries build up ions or some such on the outside of the cells and so they don't actually get a full charge after a number of times of recharging. I'm sure you that are more knowledgeable on the subject know what I'm talking about.
With the cost of these batteries, having them "wear out" is a problem the way I see it.
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henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:13 pm

Everyone needs to look at their personal circumstances to decide on the viability of a BEV.

It used to be that I had a 30 mile commute, 60 mile round trip 200 days/year, 12000 miles

Right now I could buy a BMW i3 with enough range, keep the bigger car for longer journeys.

At today’s prices the i3 would cost about 5p a mile and the regular car 24p, allowing for the cost of insurance that would be a running cost saving of £2000 per year. I’ve assumed the cost of tyres, brakes, repairs (not servicing) would match, this rather favours the regular car.

If I bought second hand over 5 years I’d expect about £20k asset depreciation on the i3. I’ve chosen 5 years since that would be 1000 charge cycles.

So it would cost at most £2000 per year more to have an additional car on the drive, always ready, charged, warm or cool as required. I would be tempted.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:58 pm

henry wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:13 pm
...
Good response to a loaded, misleadingly titled proposition. It's weird that people shill for industries by proxy, standing to receive little benefit nor detriment from their alteration. The economic equivalent of spectator sport. Given that most people on the planet do not own an automobile, the same question could be uselessly applied: when will automobiles be viable? When? An irrelevant question that ignores context. Horses, bicycles, aircraft, and tractors are superior technologies to automobiles, depending on the use scenario.

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:03 pm

afaik (based on Prius information)
batteries are run over about 35% of full capacity to extend life to the 8 years warrantied - ie 2500 35% cycles
this presumably would mask a deterioration of full capacity

maybe there's aftermarket ways of extending range at the cost of reduced battery life ?

roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:22 pm

In an alternate timeline...

Commy Tookers wrote: afaik (based on Pinto information)
internal combustion engines are run about 35% of full capacity to extend life to the 80k mi, 8 years warrantied
this presumably would mask a deterioration of full capacity

maybe there's aftermarket ways of extending performance at the cost of reduced engine life ?

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:36 am

The problem is the same as usual. Viable for who? Viable for what kind of trips? Viable as an only car or as a second car?


It´s impossible to give a universal answer to a vague question. For many many people they´re viable even today. For some people they will never be viable because EVs are quiet and neighbours will stop turning their heads to look at them when their home glasses tremble due to the noisy V8


Nothing will satisfy 100% of population ever

henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am

As if by magic at the bottom of the page up pops an ad for a range extender for the Nissan Leaf. A thing called Leafbox from evtun.com.

If an aftermarket is viable you have to say the primary must also be?
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:41 am

it seems that the 8 year warranty rules that 70% loss of capacity is warrantied but 69% loss of capacity isn't

that's why the battery is never allowed anywhere near 100% nominal SoC and anywhere near nominal 0% SoC
(though anything over 30% SoC shortens life)
the battery's physically-possible S0C range falls over the years to meet the carmakers controller-permitted S0C range

but you still might benefit in an emergency by driving below the controller-permitted SoC range - if the battery is not old
and if replacing the old original battery you might reasonably fit a smaller cheaper battery and use it over a bigger SoC range

anything marketed as a range extender will of course operate the battery over the carmakers controller-permitted SoC range

btw
NASA activity includes hybrid planes and battery planes
hybrids having a turbine prime mover whose power is converted into electricity to drive a remote fan or propeller
so this propulsor can be eg at the aft extremity to work on boundary layer air etc
battery planes would presumably not be limited to a 30% SoC range

munudeges
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by munudeges » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:04 pm

The question I always have is will we get a jump forwards in battery technology and storage that will get around the obvious problem? We might also get an advance in materials which could give internal combustion engines a large jump forwards.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:02 pm

Not an advance in materials, more an advance in systems. F1 has led the way here (for a change) with their "highly efficient" PUs.

The problem with ICEs is that most of the energy obtained from producing CO2 is then wasted. Why don't road cars make more use of this wasted energy?
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:16 pm

road cars run mostly at about 10% of full power of the chosen engine
human nature is the biggest preventable cause of car engine inefficiency

the combined Otto/Rankine cycle eg BMW Turbosteamer is more efficient at full power (than conventional simple cycles)
the Sterling cycle (ECE) is maybe 70% efficient at full power (but bulky and heavy)

early electrical 'power' generators in cities sold waste condenser heat for .... heating ! - so were maybe 70% efficient
but the do-gooder politicians banned this (to force the power companies to expand their market rurally)
Fiat once looked at a scheme to transfer car coolant into the domestic heating system (after the drive home from work)

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:26 pm

munudeges wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:04 pm
The question I always have is will we get a jump forwards in battery technology and storage that will get around the obvious problem?

FE batteries will double the capacity at similar weight for next season, so I´ll say yes

I have no idea if they´re another step forward for same chemistry or a different one tough :(

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:30 pm

I don't see that ad Henry but I will say that usually when the aftermarket gets into it, things do move forward. :wink:
Motorsport without danger is like cooking without salt
Sir Stirling Moss

henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:17 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:26 pm
munudeges wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:04 pm
The question I always have is will we get a jump forwards in battery technology and storage that will get around the obvious problem?

FE batteries will double the capacity at similar weight for next season, so I´ll say yes

I have no idea if they´re another step forward for same chemistry or a different one tough :(
Mercedes announced a bus today, 243 kWh. They claim they are working on a solid state version that will give 400 kWh “in the next few years”. They claim longer life as well as greater capacity.

We will see if they can convert this to reality.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus