Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:29 pm

Jolle wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:46 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:26 pm
Jolle wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:25 pm


In none rural areas most or almost all trips are within the range of a modern EV, therefore most of the refuelling you see now are on short trips. With charing while parked, most EV users (especially in cities) will never see a charge station.

What does change, at least, how I would change my behaviour, is use the car more, even on short trips. Now (calvinistic upbringing) anything below 2-3 miles I do by bike, because a petrol or Diesel engine doesn't like to do short trips. An EV doesn't care.
Is that an eBike :D
E-bikes are brilliant!! They are in the Netherlands rapidly taking the place of mopeds. Here you need a license to ride a moped so delivery companies are switching to ebikes so everybody can ride them, regardless of age and license (and no expensive insurance) while still effortless going 25 km/h.
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Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:09 pm

Big Tea wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:16 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 am
I see Porsche are about to release their latest EV - the Taycan. This uses an 800V system that, coupled with the appropriate charger, gives a recharge time of 15 minutes for a real world range of 250miles. If that is the case, then that rather nicely deals with the "I don't want to sit around for an hour waiting for a recharge, I want to be able to fill up and go" naysayers. A 15 minute pause every 4 hours of driving (at realistic speeds for most countries), is not unheard off. It's enough time to stretch ones legs, go to the toilet, get a coffee and walk back to the car, ready to drive on.

And yes, it requires 800V charging infrastructure, but that will come with customer demand, or even with manufacturer's using them as selling points for the car - buy our cars, use our charging stations. It's what Tesla have been doing, after all.
Not wanting to throw cold water on the idea, I am pro EV, but what about the waiting time to get 'plugged in'?
A fuel station often has several cars waiting, and 'use times' of 3 - 5 min. If the use time for a charge point is 20 - 30 min, plus the usual thoughtless 2 hour wanderer, there will have to be lots and lots of units and waiting slots to be viable.

Once the range is good enough this will not be a problem, but this will be the very time it will put people off switching.

I suppose it opens up the possibility of many small suppliers opening shop as the requirements are far less than selling and storing liquid fuel. Is it beyond the realms of possibility of a van in the carpark supplying say 4 vehicles?
Small business opportunities. Haircut and charge :D
Fair point

But as Jolle said, most people will charge at home, at lower price :wink: . Charging in stations will be only for very long trips when you have depleted the whole battery, and need to fully charge it again. That will happen to some users, but most of us will only need that once or twice a year as much

Anycase, you´r extrapolating a 2019 problem to... 2030? 2040?. I hope and expect for then range will be more than necessary, and/or charging times will also be much quicker

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:25 pm

Big Tea wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:16 pm


Not wanting to throw cold water on the idea, I am pro EV, but what about the waiting time to get 'plugged in'?
A fuel station often has several cars waiting, and 'use times' of 3 - 5 min. If the use time for a charge point is 20 - 30 min, plus the usual thoughtless 2 hour wanderer, there will have to be lots and lots of units and waiting slots to be viable.
Oh, there are issues as no system is perfect of course. But one thing about charging is that it can be done in a normal parking bay - no need to go to a special location as when using "wet fuel". No reason why a car park couldn't have 100 charging bays, for example. Well, no reason other than someone being prepared to stump up the cash to kit it out. If a car park like that is created then the odd wanderer is less of an issue. Of course, one could also add a parking fee if the car is left in the bay once fully charged (allowing a reasonable time over, of course) as a deterrent.

I could see every bay having a charge loop in the surface allowing induction charging if/when that becomes feasible.

As it happens, I almost never use motorway fuel stations in the UK. They are ridiculously expensive compared to non-motorway stations. On trips abroad I use whatever is convenient, as might be expected. I would use a motorway charging point if it was a few quid and could be done in 15 minutes.
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Greg Locock
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Greg Locock » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:13 pm

"A 15 minute pause every 4 hours of driving" So one charger per 16 vehicles then.

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:34 pm

A short trip for me would be 200 miles. I can only imagine how many stops that it would take in terms of hours I would need for a 2500 mile trip.
Sorry but I prefer a quick fill up and being on my way. Charge times I have seen for a full recharge is hours not minutes.
I've said I have no problem with the idea of electric but I don't see how it fit's into the American life style. Or at least my life style.
When they solve all these problems maybe it will become viable.
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Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:37 pm

Greg Locock wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:13 pm
"A 15 minute pause every 4 hours of driving" So one charger per 16 vehicles then.
Is it unreasonable to expect people to pause their journey for 15 minutes every 4 hours? Generally, in the UK at least, advice is to have that sort of rest period more frequently than that. The reality is that people don't drive 'til empty then fill up. Most people will have their own comfort margin at which they look to refuel / recharge. In the UK, service areas are usually only a few tens of miles apart so this is not an issue. Obviously, in the extreme case of the Australian outback, service areas are going to be very far apart. And probably EVs aren't going to be suitable for that use case. But in the much more populated parts of the world - basically everywhere in Europe, much of the US, much of Asia - EVs are a realistic proposition. Indeed, people are already using EVs in these places. Shocking (ahem), isn't it?

Motorway service stations in the UK have around 12 pumps, each able to deliver petrol or diesel. Sure, wet fuelled cars take only a few minutes to fill rather than, say, 15 minutes in the figures given by Porsche, but charging points can be provided in any number of bays in a car park - there's no need to have them in a separate place away from the rest of the facilities as currently happens. This means that one can multi-task by charging the car while getting a coffee, using the toilet etc. With a wet fuel car, one has to use the facilities and then move the car to the refuelling station. I wouldn't be surprised if the total time is not dissimilar in the two cases.

It's no big issue to provide 24 charging points compared to 12, for example. If one is having to provide a supply to the car park, making it capable of more vehicles is just a case of having a larger, or more likely an increased number of, cable(s). Adding capacity doesn't take the existing recharging points out of commission, unlike adding capacity at wet fuel stations where the whole station is unavailable for several weeks.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:48 pm

strad wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:34 pm
Charge times I have seen for a full recharge is hours not minutes.
Charge times are based on the amount of juice available. Porsche are saying their new EV will get a 250 mile charge in 15 minutes at 800V. I have no doubt that sort of rate will become common place and, probably, will eventually be seen as old/slow tech.
I've said I have no problem with the idea of electric but I don't see how it fit's into the American life style. Or at least my life style.
When they solve all these problems maybe it will become viable.
It's just possible that people will have to change their life style ever so slightly as time goes on. Things change over time, after all.

And if they solve all of the problems then it's not a case of "may be viable", it will be a case of "is viable and any issues are now your own personal ones".

I don't see why there can't be a mix of transport types, with people changing their preferred type as and when their own circumstances change. Having said that, I'm not sure about the US, however. When we've been there and suggested to people that we might walk the couple of hundred yards to a restaurant from the hotel, people have looked at us as if we've grown two heads each. "There's plenty of parking" is the oft-heard response. I'm not going to drive two hundred yards if the weather is ok, but it seems many US people do.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:09 am

strad wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:34 pm
A short trip for me would be 200 miles.
In Europe, 200 miles is a long trip for many people. Of course, for many in the US who live in cities and seldom venture out of them, 200 miles is also a long trip. The US has a low population density overall, of course. 87 people / square mile compared to the UK at 710 people / square mile for example. Even your densely populated bits are quite sparse compared to much of the world. I can see why many consider 200 miles "short".

I'm going to make a guess, however, and say that hundreds of millions of people would consider 200 miles in one go a "long car trip" rather than a "short car trip".
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:00 am

I've lost count of how many trips I've driven straight through from Seattle to L.A. and or Phoenix. Southern Texas more than once.
Sometimes I've driven those trips alone other times in tandem with a wife or buddy.
I suppose some older people might stop but I prefer to go straight through. I'm not usually on a sight seeing trip.
Phoenix to New Orleans isn't unheard of for me when I was younger... I'd probably break that one up anymore. :wink:
I know that when they tried for a British Mille Miglia they had to do a lap all the way around to make a 1000 miles.
I guess it's all what you grow up with.
Last edited by strad on Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Greg Locock
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Greg Locock » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:06 am

Whether you drive for 2 hours and charge for 7.5 minutes, or 4 hours and charge for 15 minutes, you still need the same number of chargers, and electricity for them. We usually stop 3 times on that road, but if I am driving solo I just stop once.

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:10 am

I'm not looking to make this an argument. I'm sure there are lots of U.S. residents that think 200-250 miles is a very long jaunt.
That's not even a full tank of gas in most cars.
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Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:17 am

It is recommended to make a stop every 2 hours of driving, fatigue is as dangerous as driving drunk, so I can't see how 7.5 minutes of charging at those stops can be a problem for anyone sincerely

Strad, how many stops do you normally do in those 2500 miles trips?
That's at least 36 hours of driving, even if you only stop each 3 hours that's still 12 stops at least with a petrol car.

10 minutes of charging each 3 hours would be a problem for you?

Brake Horse Power
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Brake Horse Power » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:24 pm

I think your personal situation is an exception Strad but would you consider a hydrogen car in a few years if the infrastructure is there? Quite a lot of range and quick refill times. Maybe also some nice models coming in a few years.

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Nickel » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:00 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:17 am
It is recommended to make a stop every 2 hours of driving, fatigue is as dangerous as driving drunk, so I can't see how 7.5 minutes of charging at those stops can be a problem for anyone sincerely

(...)
Is this the world we live in now? That's some serious safety nonsense. I agree fatigue can be very dangerous but 2hrs? One day it will be recommended we all stay at home and wear bubble wrap coated in disinfectant.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:19 pm

It depends on the driving environment. Doing long distances on relatively empty, relatively straight roads is easy and is much less tiring than driving in high-occupancy situations. High traffic numbers, lots going on to see, assess and react to is much more tiring.

I've driven long distances in the US and it's easy to do. It's not too bad in France where the autoroutes are not too heavily occupied and lane discipline is good, although 450 miles is a good day's drive there. I quite often do 100-150 mile days in the UK and get home mentally tired. The roads are very busy, idiots abound, the roads are twisty, often badly surfaced, lots of junctions to assess as you approach etc.

The open road in the US is the easiest driving I have ever done. It's boring, unless you can catch the scenery, but it's easy.
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