ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Tommy Cookers
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ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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(officially announced today) .....

UK sales of ICE cars are now to end by 2030

sales of 'some hybrid cars' will be permitted after this deadline

the several million truck and van population of UK roads isn't mentioned ?

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henry
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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That ups the theoretical compound growth rate for BEVs from 40% to 50% per annum.

Even so they will still only be around 20% of the fleet by 2030 and will only consume 5% of current U.K. generation capacity. It’s only a beginning.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

Greg Locock
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Meanwhile South Australia has announce it will introduce a distance based tax for EVs.

Just_a_fan
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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EVs were always going to be taxed at some point. Governments make way too much money from car taxation (sales taxes, fuel taxes etc.) to be able to do anything other than tax EVs as they become more common. It's hardly a surprise.

Even though I do a lot of miles, most of it is work so I'm not averse to being taxed per mile rather than per litre. Of course, for the "Fun Police", taxing by the mile means the fear that everyone will get gas guzzlers, whilst they still can, and the internal combustion engine will go out with everyone having a blast. :lol:
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Cold Fussion
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Hopefully EV taxes will incentivise non car based transportation.

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Phil
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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It’s good to see that the fairy tale period will soon be over with the myth that EVs will be so cheap to run. They may result in less maintenance cost through higher efficiency, but the increase in electricity demands and the swing to more environment friendly sources (solar, wind etc) will lead to higher cost impacting everyone. Meanwhile governments will get just as much from milking commuters by taxing them as they have before. Only difference is that a large bulk will come from everyone on a per driven basis rather than those that use more fuel.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Baulz
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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I predict sales of ICE cars will be huge in 2029.

I am 100% behind EVs but I don't see how such a dramatic change can happen in 10 years.

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Big Tea
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Baulz wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:11 pm
I predict sales of ICE cars will be huge in 2029.

I am 100% behind EVs but I don't see how such a dramatic change can happen in 10 years.
As I mentioned in another thread, it is the time of the hybrid. All the advantages of the electric car with the disadvantages of a petrol car I know, but it is a good middle ground between here and there. Once people accept a hybrid with a tiny engine they will tick most boxes.
We are standing on the shoulders of Giants. So watch your feet.

Just_a_fan
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Big Tea wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:24 pm
Baulz wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:11 pm
I predict sales of ICE cars will be huge in 2029.

I am 100% behind EVs but I don't see how such a dramatic change can happen in 10 years.
As I mentioned in another thread, it is the time of the hybrid. All the advantages of the electric car with the disadvantages of a petrol car I know, but it is a good middle ground between here and there. Once people accept a hybrid with a tiny engine they will tick most boxes.
I think the hybrid is the sweet spot. The advantages of both the electric and ICE power sources. The only real disadvantage from the ICE is local emissions. The ICE gives greater flexibility and basically instant "recharge" (i.e. refuelling takes a few minutes compared to dozens/hundreds of minutes with electricity) whilst the EV part allows for running in EV mode in emissions sensitive areas such as urban environments. The EV boosts the ICE for those moments when performance is required such as quickly overtaking a lorry or other slow vehicle.

In the UK, Harry Metcalfe (of Evo magazine fame etc) is running a BMW X5 hybrid having run a Jaguar EV for a period. He reckons the EV's issues with range and charging infrastructure ended up in him / his family using pure ICE cars instead for longer journeys. He reckons the hybrid ticks all of the boxes if one can plug it in overnight.

Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Just_a_fan
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Phil wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:30 am
It’s good to see that the fairy tale period will soon be over with the myth that EVs will be so cheap to run. They may result in less maintenance cost through higher efficiency, but the increase in electricity demands and the swing to more environment friendly sources (solar, wind etc) will lead to higher cost impacting everyone. Meanwhile governments will get just as much from milking commuters by taxing them as they have before. Only difference is that a large bulk will come from everyone on a per driven basis rather than those that use more fuel.
The thing about the cost to run an EV compared with an ICE really depends on where you live. In some countries, petrol is almost free and an EV makes no real sense from an economic point of view. In other countries, petrol/diesel is massively taxed and an EV makes sense. Even allowing for paying to use the roads on a "pay per mile" basis, the EV is still likely to be cheaper as the maintenance costs should be lower. I can see a tiered "pay per mile" system where high emissions cars pay more per mile than lower / zero emission cars. At least to start with in order to help drive the old stock off the roads. Once everyone is driving EVs, I would expect the payment to be based on either weight or performance as both are likely to increase road wear as they also increase. Either that or it'll be a flat fee for everyone with a front loaded tax based on purchase price. They'll need to get their equivalent of fuel and vehicle excise duties somehow.

Other costs will be down to how much PV you can fit on your property and then funnel the electrons in to your car. Those with big roofs might be ok on that, even taking account of the pay back time for the panels.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Greg Locock
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Logically, once EVs are taxed by distance, the same should apply to ICVs, and the tax on petrol etc should fall to the same rate as the general carbon tax. And pigs will fly.

Ferry
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:13 pm
The thing about the cost to run an EV compared with an ICE really depends on where you live. In some countries, petrol is almost free and an EV makes no real sense from an economic point of view. In other countries, petrol/diesel is massively taxed and an EV makes sense.
Very true! Here in Norway, electricity is very cheap, fossil fuel very expensive.
€1.40/liter, or $6,26/gallon
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Norw ... ne_prices/

Running an ice here is nearly 10x as expensive as an EV. So for the fuel cost isolated it's a no-brainer. ICE spends nearly it's new price in fuel during it's lifetime here.

Hybrids are not so popular here anymore. The better the EVs get, the less reason to compromise with a hybrid. No-one ever asked about the range on petrol on a hybrid. It's all about electric range, the more the better. So the batteries increases, and people asks for more range. Until someone stops and asks the question, what if we chuck out the ice? And the fuel tank, the radiator, exhaust, gearbox etc. Make room for more battery, more range, more power.
Tesla did exactly that 10 years ago. Now others follow.
The way I see it, hybrid is a gateway drug to EV. Once you start driving in electric mode, you want more. It's true hybrids got all the advantages of both. But they also got all the disadvantages. Not only a expensive complicated ice, exhaust etc, but also a battery with a certain lifetime, power electronics etc.

NL_Fer
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Even today people buy refurbished cars like a Landrover or G-class with a chassis over 30 years old, with brand new powerunit and interior.

After 2030 those companies will see golden years.

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Andres125sx
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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All posts in this thread are a perfect summary about the eternal EV debate, very interesting =D>


I have to agree with most of it. Maybe if something is missing is a mention to the exponential grow of renewables and specially PV, wich will reduce demand as more and more people is becoming self suficient or simply producing some electricity theirselves thus reducing demand.

Image
https://www.evwind.es/2020/07/05/in-201 ... 5-gw/75561


Obviously PV panels are not enough to run a EV, it will still need to be charged as always, but all electricicy the panels can produce will be a reduction on your cost per km.

PV panels and EVs are a perfect match, the expensive part of installing renewables on your property are the batteries, they increase the pay off time significantly. You can instal just some PV panels and sell the electricity you don´t use, but the price companies offer is absurdly low so the pay off time is also high. But if you own an EV just with the PV panels you can use all the electricity produced so your demand is reduced (reducing your bill of electricity at normal price) and the panels are paid off faster
Last edited by Andres125sx on Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Phil
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Re: ICE car sales now to end by 2030

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:13 pm
Even allowing for paying to use the roads on a "pay per mile" basis, the EV is still likely to be cheaper as the maintenance costs should be lower.
Personally, i think it wont matter much and make a big difference. Maybe not in the immediate future, but eventually.

You see, the car industry has been making a lot of money in a rather large and complex cycle - all tied in with a nice cash flow through tax for the governments.

If you suddendly take that away and go to cars that no longer rely on fossil fuel (where its taxed) and large maintenance costs (oil, fluids, brakes etc), you are going to make up for that another way.

Which is why electric cars have a high price to begin with. They will always be expensive, unless they find other means to make money through maintenance. It’s all down to business. And governments wont sit this one out either. They’ll get their slice as they did before and it will be just as large. It just might not be as apparent anymore as simply looking at fuel prices.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter