2018 cars speculation

A place to discuss the characteristics of the cars in Formula One, both current as well as historical. Laptimes, driver worshipping and team chatter does not belong here.
zibby43
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Phil wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:49 am
To be honest, i smell trouble for Mercedes next year.

Their concept this year has been very conpetitive, but having the best PU once again has clearly aided them, at the very least in qualifying and from a reliability point of view. Next year with oil burning being seriously clamped down, i think the PU difference will be minimal. This means that aero and chassis will be more important.

Ferrari have built a monster of a car this season that IMO should have taken the fight to the last race if it had not been held back by a catastrophic driver and reliability failure in the Asia races. Their car is aerodynamically simple and has a wide operating window. This means the car has been a very strong contender on all tracks this year, even when on many tracks, the Mercedes prevailed thanks to stronger pace in QF and on tracks where PU performance was key. Next year, Mercedes will no longer have this benefit.

Mercedes have gone for the long wheelbase low rake concept because they understood it well. Together with the suspension designs they were able to perfect it. With the ban on their suspension technics, that concept and the potential might have gone straight out the window.

If they do change the concept for next year, i’d be very surprised if they can make it wotk and be competitive from the first race on. I could see them struggling severly and the PU wont bail them out this time.

Going into the winter break, i could see them design two cars - one on this years car and one going high rake and shorter wheelbase and then figure out which one is better. This may limit their ability and resources.

It’s sure going to be interesting.

My hunch for next year is that Ferrari and RedBull will be right in the fight. McLaren, could also be. Mercedes... i am just not sure. I guess it depends how much development potential is still left in the PU (despite closer scrutinieering on oil and fuel) for them to retain an advantage in this area? .....
Food for thought:

1) Supposedly, Mercedes has been running at the lower oil flow rate for some time, irrespective of the fact they took their 4th PU before the cutoff.

My understanding is that the lower rate has virtually no bearing on qualifying, and a very minimal impact on the race pace.

2) The Mercedes PU's advantages (e.g., MGU-H) go far beyond the oil burning talk, which is quite frankly, much ado about nothing.

3) Furthermore, the fact that PU allocations are cut down to 3 for the season in '18, after a year in which Renault and Ferrari had some serious reliability issues, has to bode well for Mercedes (who was staunchly in favor of the PU quantity reduction).

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Phil
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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From what was quoted in an AMuS article a while ago (around Monza), the FIA is seriously closing in on oil being used in ways other than just a lubricant.

http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/form ... 20994.html

The article points out that...

- The FIA has no means to measure the oil usage accurately. They use an oil stick, probably by measuring before the race and after to get a good indication of the usage.
- There is some tolerance for this reason.
- The FIA is working on better methods to measure it more accurately.
- By 2018, only 0.6 of oil will be allowed to be used and only one specification for the entire weekend.

So for 2018. not only will the oil quantity be reduced again (0.6), they will also use adequate measuring tools to get an exact reading where this year they don't. Also in addition to all of this, only one oil can be used throughout the weekend. I can't say how much Mercedes has been benefiting from this.

AFAIK, Ferrari was pretty much caught mid season (Canada) by using two separate oil tanks throughout a race (the famous 2nd oil tank sighting) and their inquiry pre Winter testing to the FIA about this kind of stuff. I'd guess it's not beyond that Mercedes have been using two different oil specifications on Saturday and Sunday (well inside the rules this season).

Also, if you've been reading the McLaren-Team topic and what Wazari has been mentioning, the Mercedes engined cars have a very distinctive smell in the pit lane that hints to oil burning (more so than the others). Not sure how credible this is and I couldn't say on which page of that 450 pages I read it...

So, if you ask me... that difference is going to shrink and the probability of Mercedes finding another huge advantage where others haven't... well, I just don't see it happening for now. But then again, Mercedes has proved us all wrong multiple times now. But all the same, the gap has never been this small to not only Ferrari, but Renault too.
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SectorOne
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Phil wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:17 pm
Also, if you've been reading the McLaren-Team topic and what Wazari has been mentioning, the Mercedes engined cars have a very distinctive smell in the pit lane that hints to oil burning (more so than the others). Not sure how credible this is and I couldn't say on which page of that 450 pages I read it...
Also the little puff of blue smoke we saw so often from Mercedes as the cars took off, probably part of some oil-trickery.

-

Going to be very interesting to see if Mercedes jumps aero-philosophy for next year. I think they are doomed either way but it does seem like the high-rake setup is the way to go.

Red Bull will probably be the team to beat next year i think with Mercedes, Ferrari, Mclaren all squabbling amongst themselves.
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zibby43
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Phil wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:17 pm

<snip>

So, if you ask me... that difference is going to shrink and the probability of Mercedes finding another huge advantage where others haven't... well, I just don't see it happening for now. But then again, Mercedes has proved us all wrong multiple times now. But all the same, the gap has never been this small to not only Ferrari, but Renault too.
All excellent thoughts! Thanks for taking the time to share. Really enjoy reading all of your posts.

As I mentioned above, the drop down to 3 PUs for the entire season is going to be a mega challenge for all of the teams. Both Renault and Ferrari are going to have to step it up big time on the reliability front.

Either that, or they're going to have to turn their PUs down a little bit and sacrifice performance for longevity. That alone could give an edge to the Merc PU. Some teams may be forced into taking "strategic" penalties, although recent rule changes have made that approach much less rewarding.

Danny Ric has another grid drop for Brazil.

zibby43
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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SectorOne wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:54 pm
Red Bull will probably be the team to beat next year i think with Mercedes, Ferrari, Mclaren all squabbling amongst themselves.
Red Bull is going to have to make a massive jump in terms of reliability in order for that to happen.

I personally think it's foreboding that Mercedes won across a regulation change with a car that was virtually impossible to set up.

They also didn't understand the tires quite as well as Ferrari, particularly early in the season.

They have too much talent throughout their massive organization to just drop the ball next year, especially after having a full season to gather data on both the aero and tres.

James Allison can have a massive impact on the W09. And he's kind of talented, too.

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mclaren111
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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I'm putting my money on Peter Prodromou and Matt Morris producing a winner.

If Renault improve as they expect, we should see FA win a couple of times.

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WaikeCU
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I'd say Verstappen or Vettel will be winning the remaining two races of the season. Since Merc have won both Championships, they can now fully focus on next season. The sooner they can get data on new parts, the better they'll enter Winter testing imo.

Is it legal to run parts on cars that are not according the technical regulations on Friday FP1?

marvin78
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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I think Williams did that last year.

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GPR-A duplicate2
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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WaikeCU wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:50 pm
I'd say Verstappen or Vettel will be winning the remaining two races of the season. Since Merc have won both Championships, they can now fully focus on next season. The sooner they can get data on new parts, the better they'll enter Winter testing imo.

Is it legal to run parts on cars that are not according the technical regulations on Friday FP1?
As long as those parts does not require crash tests. Safety of the driver is of paramount concern, hence all parts that require an FIA clearance, need to get one to be EVEN tested on track. I don't think Mercedes is going to be bringing anything noticeable to the races. There is anyway a young drivers' test coming after Abu Dhabi GP, so all the new parts would be tested without the prying eyes of the media in that test.

zibby43
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Thought this would be appropriate to include here:

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... es-975713/

This weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix and the season-closing Abu Dhabi event across November 24-26 give Mercedes "the first two test opportunities ahead of the new season," trialing new and interesting concepts.

In its preview for the Interlagos race, Mercedes pledges to "become a little bolder," test new parts and carry out "experiments" that would be too risky if it was still fighting for titles.

Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff said: "It might be tempting to think that, with both championships now secure, the pressure is off for the two remaining races of 2017. That couldn't be further from the truth."

"Inside the team, we are looking at the next two race weekends as the first two grands prix of 2018. We have two races that we are determined to win in order to take that positive momentum into the winter."

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mclaren111
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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GPNews:
A foreseen rule change to the rear fin of F1's 2018 cars has been opposed by McLaren, and complicated its rivals' design work at a very late stage.

McLaren, who would like to see a reduced rear fin, did not vote in favour of the proposal which requires unanimous support to go through.

McLaren's Eric Boullier also argued that a smaller rear fin would perhaps better serve the interests of its 2018 design.
"Maybe we have found a way to use the engine cover that works better," he said.


Great news !!!!!!!! Let's hope it stays banned !!!!!!!!!

Sevach
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Stick to your guns Mclaren.

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Vasconia
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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marvin78 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:11 pm
I think Williams did that last year.
Well, its alwas useful those they didn´t help them to build a truly good car.

Sevach
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Speculation around high rake Mercedes, but still limo long.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... ar-979229/

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3jawchuck
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Re: 2018 cars speculation

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Sevach wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:39 pm
Speculation around high rake Mercedes, but still limo long.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... ar-979229/
I like how it says "considering". Surely their design has already been settled this late in the year?
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