Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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Capharol
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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lio007 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:42 am
LM10 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:26 pm
lio007 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:04 pm
#-o
Apparently they still haven't done all their crash tests.
3 weeks ago you wrote that you did read on some forum RBR having passed the crash tests.

Are you being sarcastic now or are these more serious news you got?
I know, a bit contradicting myself 8)
But I might have been wrong, so just ignore that post.
That's the problem with whispers and rumours at this point of time.
Sorry for that.
that's why i don't listen or give an opinion on whispers and rumours, you can get yourself burned to fast
Strive for continuous improvement, instead of perfection.
"Most people seem to turn off their brain when they turn on the computer and log in to social media."

bjpower
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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Is there any expected performance increase from being able to change/update the gear ratios ? There was a big performance increase in the Honda during last year. I assume the gear ratios at the end of the year were not ideal.

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godlameroso
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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Gear ratios will depend on the new power unit characteristics and expected top speed. If the 2020 car has more drag than its predecessor due to having more downforce, then a lower terminal velocity is possible. However if power has increased it could be that the car has similar top speed to 2019 despite the drag increase.

Luckily they can try out different ratios in testing.
The height of cultivation is really nothing special. It is merely simplicity; the ability to express the utmost with the minimum. Mr.Lee

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oetger
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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Image

https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... e-foto%2F

Some cammo parts visible on this picture.

Maplesoup
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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That's an engine cover that is outside their painting bay. Its used during factory tours, it is from a much older car.

lio007
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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There was this piece a couple of days ago:
https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/98 ... ls-in-2019

The very last part is pretty confusing:
During practice for the final rounds of the 2019 season both Red Bull and Haas trialled new front wings that may or may not signal a shift in design philosophy for 2020. Both leans more towards Ferrari's way of thinking than Mercedes'.
Mercedes followed Ferrari's inboard-loaded design much earlier (Hockenheim I think) than Red Bull.
As it's a plus-article I won't post all of it, but in context it suggests Ferrari's design was not the best way, but Mercedes'.
Therefore I don't understand the last bit, when Mercedes followed Ferrari's design to some extent (as RBR did with it's tests in FP), so it can't be that wrong.

Maplesoup
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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lio007 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:24 am
There was this piece a couple of days ago:
https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/98 ... ls-in-2019

The very last part is pretty confusing:
During practice for the final rounds of the 2019 season both Red Bull and Haas trialled new front wings that may or may not signal a shift in design philosophy for 2020. Both leans more towards Ferrari's way of thinking than Mercedes'.
Mercedes followed Ferrari's inboard-loaded design much earlier (Hockenheim I think) than Red Bull.
As it's a plus-article I won't post all of it, but in context it suggests Ferrari's design was not the best way, but Mercedes'.
Therefore I don't understand the last bit, when Mercedes followed Ferrari's design to some extent (as RBR did with it's tests in FP), so it can't be that wrong.
So journalists like so talk about one team chasing, copying or being better than the other. It's how the get views.

In reality Ferrari and Mercedes started on different extremes of front wing design. Ferrari with the inboard design and Mercedes (and red bull) the outboard design. Neither are copying the other they are all just converging towards the same design which is a compromise between the 2 extremes.

lio007
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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Maplesoup wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:49 am
lio007 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:24 am
There was this piece a couple of days ago:
https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/98 ... ls-in-2019

The very last part is pretty confusing:
During practice for the final rounds of the 2019 season both Red Bull and Haas trialled new front wings that may or may not signal a shift in design philosophy for 2020. Both leans more towards Ferrari's way of thinking than Mercedes'.
Mercedes followed Ferrari's inboard-loaded design much earlier (Hockenheim I think) than Red Bull.
As it's a plus-article I won't post all of it, but in context it suggests Ferrari's design was not the best way, but Mercedes'.
Therefore I don't understand the last bit, when Mercedes followed Ferrari's design to some extent (as RBR did with it's tests in FP), so it can't be that wrong.
So journalists like so talk about one team chasing, copying or being better than the other. It's how the get views.

In reality Ferrari and Mercedes started on different extremes of front wing design. Ferrari with the inboard design and Mercedes (and red bull) the outboard design. Neither are copying the other they are all just converging towards the same design which is a compromise between the 2 extremes.
Exactly what I think!

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subcritical71
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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lio007 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:38 pm
Maplesoup wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:49 am
lio007 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:24 am
There was this piece a couple of days ago:
https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/98 ... ls-in-2019

The very last part is pretty confusing:

Mercedes followed Ferrari's inboard-loaded design much earlier (Hockenheim I think) than Red Bull.
As it's a plus-article I won't post all of it, but in context it suggests Ferrari's design was not the best way, but Mercedes'.
Therefore I don't understand the last bit, when Mercedes followed Ferrari's design to some extent (as RBR did with it's tests in FP), so it can't be that wrong.
So journalists like so talk about one team chasing, copying or being better than the other. It's how the get views.

In reality Ferrari and Mercedes started on different extremes of front wing design. Ferrari with the inboard design and Mercedes (and red bull) the outboard design. Neither are copying the other they are all just converging towards the same design which is a compromise between the 2 extremes.
Exactly what I think!
Perfect summary, if were as easy as just copying whoever is doing the best, everybody would be on par at the moment!

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godlameroso
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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By my estimates, RB needs to gain .8 seconds to match Mercedes ultimate pace(the .34 seconds they were previously down + the half second they're expecting to gain over the winter). That's a huge challenge, by my estimations they could gain as much as .6 which would still put RB .2 and change off the ultimate pace. It would be slightly closer than they were last year. Of course they'll still be fast on tracks that suit them, but may be a bit closer on tracks that don't.
The height of cultivation is really nothing special. It is merely simplicity; the ability to express the utmost with the minimum. Mr.Lee

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Wouter
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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godlameroso wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:25 am
By my estimates, RB needs to gain .8 seconds to match Mercedes ultimate pace(the .34 seconds they were previously down + the half second they're expecting to gain over the winter). That's a huge challenge, by my estimations they could gain as much as .6 which would still put RB .2 and change off the ultimate pace. It would be slightly closer than they were last year. Of course they'll still be fast on tracks that suit them, but may be a bit closer on tracks that don't.
It seems to me that your estimates are a little bit high @Godlameroso.

RBR .34 previous down, Mercedes gaining half a second over the winter.
And why would RBR only gain .6 over the winter?

Viruzpunk
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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Hey. Maybe i got the same feeling of little bit too high in favor of MB, too. But ok could be seen as the worst scenario.
Best scenario would be : previous down at 0.3 ; expect MB gain at 0.3/0.4 ; the one for RB at 0.5/0.6.
Not a crucial difference more or less 0.1s.

What could be the crucial factor and i feel not enough discussed is the motivation or not of Newey to come back a bit more
fully committed in the project.
To me he was totally biased after the rbr/renault drama, took a break and let the freedom to Honda to do their job. With the confidence gained and the commitment of Max he could have, in this winter break, pulled the trigger to perfectly integrate the engine/chassis ( job which, i beleive, was not well executed last winter cause break/freedom job for Honda).
I see here the 0.1/0.2 sec where RB could gain and then match MB.

Did you take this setting in your estimates? If not do you tend to agree?

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godlameroso
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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I'm being as pessimistic as possible. Typically winter gains amount to .3 from the power unit, or until the first power unit update. Assuming Honda brings another .3 over the winter, and the Red Bull chassis also improves by .3 that would mean another .6.

Mercedes says they couldn't get the most out of their spec 3 engine because of cooling issues, this may slow down progress from Mercedes relative to Red Bull if in fact Red Bull was a bit conservative with the chassis last year.

So perhaps Mercedes has less scope to gain due to the fact they're already at a more extreme state than the RB15.

Sorting out the cooling issues, plus any chassis gains, plus any engine gains, I estimate Mercedes could improve by at least .5 over last year.

If Red Bull was slower due to being a bit conservative with the design(possible due to the excellent reliability) then perhaps they have a bit more scope to improve as they push the package further and further to the brink. Combined with Honda's improvement and close relationship with Red Bull, I'm sure they will have good reliability despite pushing the packaging to new extremes. That is why I estimate that Red Bull could possibly improve more than Mercedes.

However I see it as a stretch to think they could improve by .8 which is what they would need to be on equal footing if Mercedes improves by my estimated amount.

Of course there's also the possibility I'm completely wrong, and Ferrari smashes everyone next year, or it could be that everyone more or less reaches the same performance and we have a closely fought battle for the title.

What I think is going to happen(speculation thread after all) Red Bull gets a bit closer but still slower than Mercedes, Ferrari gets closer as well. Mercedes will still have the fastest car, but the gap will be smaller than 2019, which will allow Red Bull and Ferrari to get more wins on merit. Perhaps that's all we need to have a good battle, Verstappen being .3 down still managed to get 3 wins on merit with a possible 4th with pole position in Mexico.

If he's closer maybe he can get 5 or 6 with some luck and good team work. If Ferrari is up there taking wins away from Mercedes, and Mercedes doesn't get 5 1-2's in a row maybe it's enough to pressure them into mistakes as the tension raises during the season.

In a way the Red Bull team is better equipped to deal with the stress and pressure, because they have to be inch perfect to even have a chance the last few seasons. They're prepared for the stress, will Mercedes, who until now has never really been threatened over a season be able to perform under pressure?

In 2012 Alonso took the championship to the last round despite only having 3 wins. If 2020 is as closely fought and Verstappen wins 5 he could very well win, and he'd do it in not the best car but because he was the best driver with the best team with a very good car and engine.

That would be an ideal scenario for Verstappen because he'd be winning without having the fastest car. With the fastest car you can win 6 in a row, but to get 1 without having the fastest car, very reminiscent of 2012.
The height of cultivation is really nothing special. It is merely simplicity; the ability to express the utmost with the minimum. Mr.Lee

lio007
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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That's the big question for me... If, big IF, we have a close fight between the top 3, who can handle the tough fight best in the races. Pitwall and driver.
We've seen errors this year from every team.
The next question is: what is RB's plan for updates? Will they bring an RB16 at an advanced stage to Melbourne, i.e. some updates they would usually bring over the course of a season are already on the car from the beginning?

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Wouter
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Re: Red Bull RB16 Speculation Thread

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godlameroso wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:18 pm
I'm being as pessimistic as possible.

Typically winter gains amount to .3 from the power unit, or until the first power unit update. Assuming Honda brings another .3 over the winter, and the Red Bull chassis also improves by .3 that would mean another .6.

What I think is going to happen(speculation thread after all) Red Bull gets a bit closer but still slower than Mercedes, Ferrari gets closer as well. Mercedes will still have the fastest car, but the gap will be smaller than 2019, which will allow Red Bull and Ferrari to get more wins on merit. Perhaps that's all we need to have a good battle,
Verstappen being .3 down still managed to get 3 wins on merit with a possible 4th with pole position in Mexico.

If he's closer maybe he can get 5 or 6 with some luck and good team work.
I fully agree with you on the first sentence. :)
Unfortunately this only concerns RBR and NOT Mercedes.
Why would Mercedes have the fastest car?
I think that after the transition year with Honda and the integration now from the engine/chassis,
RBR will have a much better RB16 this year than the RB15 was.