2021 Pecking order prediction

[Zynerji]

My prediction:

Everyone catches up to Merc (0.2s) and we have 10 different winners in the first 10 races, then it's a race of engine penalties to the chequered at the last race for both championships.

Who am I kidding? Lewis and Merc walk it, and it's a boring championship for the 7th consecutive year, where yet again, no one cares about where the others finish simply because it was not First Place...

[godlameroso]

"Who am I kidding? Lewis and Merc walk it"

That has been the trend, it would be unlikely for the status quo to be shaken up. I just wish he had a harder time getting it instead of just walking it. I don't know, unless Mercedes can make another step with the engine as they did from 2019 to 2020 there is no way Honda can't make inroads on Mercedes. The new Honda engine is substantially better than the 2020 unit. I just can't see Mercedes maintaining the same gap they had. Will they be overtaken by RB? I have no idea, but there's simply no way they'll be as far ahead as they were in 2020. I can see Mercedes still having a small gap, but it will definitely be closer.

Man would I love to see 4 cars battling for pole and qualifying on the same tenth or two.

[the EDGE]

"Who am I kidding? Lewis and Merc walk it"

That has been the trend, it would be unlikely for the status quo to be shaken up. I just wish he had a harder time getting it instead of just walking it. I don't know, unless Mercedes can make another step with the engine as they did from 2019 to 2020 there is no way Honda can't make inroads on Mercedes. The new Honda engine is substantially better than the 2020 unit. I just can't see Mercedes maintaining the same gap they had. Will they be overtaken by RB? I have no idea, but there's simply no way they'll be as far ahead as they were in 2020. I can see Mercedes still having a small gap, but it will definitely be closer.

Man would I love to see 4 cars battling for pole and qualifying on the same tenth or two.

Im not sure Mercedes need to ‘make another step’ like others do

I think they will have been focusing on reliability so they can extract more from what they already have

They’ve had plenty of time to fine-tune their PU to get on top of the new 1 setting per race rule whilst others have been focusing on re-designs

I’m not saying the Merc PU is unreliable it’s self, but the harder you can push it the more you can get from it, so I expect a sizeable increase from them next year as much as others

[NathanOlder]

yeah, I wonder how much work the suppliers have done is down to the qualy mode ban.

[F1Krof]

Merc is losing a lot of toys for 2021

They're losing DAS, yes, but what else are they losing that no one else is? Or do you think the aero changes will hit them harder because of their aero philosophy compared to e.g. Red Bull?

It'll be interesting to see who loses most from the floor and diffuser changes.

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

I believe you're right. I've read a while back somewhere (I don't remember now), supposedly lower rake cars will be the ones losing the most on the performance. This could definitely stir the pecking order if it is true.

But then again, Merc was supposed to be toppled a long time ago, again and again they seem to find performance, even when everybody was going with higher rake.

[dans79]

They're losing DAS, yes, but what else are they losing that no one else is? Or do you think the aero changes will hit them harder because of their aero philosophy compared to e.g. Red Bull?

It'll be interesting to see who loses most from the floor and diffuser changes.

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

I believe you're right. I've read a while back somewhere (I don't remember now), supposedly lower rake cars will be the ones losing the most on the performance. This could definitely stir the pecking order if it is true.

But then again, Merc was supposed to be toppled a long time ago, again and again they seem to find performance, even when everybody was going with higher rake.

you also need to keep in mind they started focusing solely on the 2021 regs a few months before everyone else!

[LM10]

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

I believe you're right. I've read a while back somewhere (I don't remember now), supposedly lower rake cars will be the ones losing the most on the performance. This could definitely stir the pecking order if it is true.

But then again, Merc was supposed to be toppled a long time ago, again and again they seem to find performance, even when everybody was going with higher rake.

you also need to keep in mind they started focusing solely on the 2021 regs a few months before everyone else!

Ferrari stopped development almost at the same time as well. But as RBR is going to be the only opponent for Mercedes in 2021, it does not really matter what all others except RBR have done.

[F1Krof]

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

I believe you're right. I've read a while back somewhere (I don't remember now), supposedly lower rake cars will be the ones losing the most on the performance. This could definitely stir the pecking order if it is true.

But then again, Merc was supposed to be toppled a long time ago, again and again they seem to find performance, even when everybody was going with higher rake.

you also need to keep in mind they started focusing solely on the 2021 regs a few months before everyone else!

Yes...however this could mean that they predicted they're gonna be having issues to recover the performance. On the other hand RBR didn't care, they developed right until the last race, meaning they are confident that whatever they put on the 20's car will work on the 21'.

[aMessageToCharlie]

Juat had a look at what the book makers say, as it might have been a good move to put some money on Russell for the championship (just in case HAM botches his contract negotion). Interestingly though, Russell's odds are pretty high already, considering he's contracted for a Williams seat.

Russell: 17.00
Latifi: 3001.00

So according to these numbers, RUS is more likely to win the championship right now than Perrez or either of the Ferrari drivers.

Time to grab some popcorn.

[tangodjango]

I believe you're right. I've read a while back somewhere (I don't remember now), supposedly lower rake cars will be the ones losing the most on the performance. This could definitely stir the pecking order if it is true.

But then again, Merc was supposed to be toppled a long time ago, again and again they seem to find performance, even when everybody was going with higher rake.

you also need to keep in mind they started focusing solely on the 2021 regs a few months before everyone else!

Yes...however this could mean that they predicted they're gonna be having issues to recover the performance. On the other hand RBR didn't care, they developed right until the last race, meaning they are confident that whatever they put on the 20's car will work on the 21'.

Yeah doubt that, it's more like Red Bull had no clue why they had so many issues and had to gain an understanding through development during the season, because if they don't understand why the current car underperformed then whatever program of development they have in the future might not even work.

[dans79]

you also need to keep in mind they started focusing solely on the 2021 regs a few months before everyone else!

Yes...however this could mean that they predicted they're gonna be having issues to recover the performance. On the other hand RBR didn't care, they developed right until the last race, meaning they are confident that whatever they put on the 20's car will work on the 21'.

Yeah doubt that, it's more like Red Bull had no clue why they had so many issues and had to gain an understanding through development during the season, because if they don't understand why the current car underperformed then whatever program of development they have in the future might not even work.

Yeah, because 2020 was the second year in a row where Red bull made a verry difficult car to drive.

[zibby43]

They're losing DAS, yes, but what else are they losing that no one else is? Or do you think the aero changes will hit them harder because of their aero philosophy compared to e.g. Red Bull?

It'll be interesting to see who loses most from the floor and diffuser changes.

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

I believe you're right. I've read a while back somewhere (I don't remember now), supposedly lower rake cars will be the ones losing the most on the performance. This could definitely stir the pecking order if it is true.

But then again, Merc was supposed to be toppled a long time ago, again and again they seem to find performance, even when everybody was going with higher rake.

No one has any idea whether low-rake (Mercedes, and now Aston) or high-rake (the rest of the field) cars will be affected more.

The initial thought was that high-rake cars will be affected more, because they need to seal the rear of the floor (which sits up higher) to make the entire concept work.

And now it will be harder to do just that because of the lost surface area (and the removal of a variety of important measures that help the diffuser performance by minimizing tire squirt).

It amazes me how rival teams in F1 continue to underestimate Merc. There was a brilliant article on the Race a month or so ago that detailed how content Merc was to toy with the entire paddock. The entire paddock was convinced that Merc's advantage in the hybrid era was solely down to the engine, while, internally at Merc, the engine advantage allowed them to go on and build one of the most well-rounded and dominant chassis on the grid.

Not only did Merc have the advantage of starting early on the 2021 regs this year, but I'm convinced (and I hate tinfoil hat theories) that they started turning down the wick, generally, once the FIA started to try to clip their wings with the quali mode ban this year.

One of the cardinal rules in modern F1 (echoed by Marc Priestley and others) is to not win by any greater margin than you have to, so as to not draw any additional unwanted attention. This has become a staple of Merc's race performances. And then, when everyone is convinced they've started to close the gap, Merc then proceeds to roll up at the first race of the next season and puts 5+ tenths on its rivals.

[Scorpaguy]

I am not an engineer, but I have never been able to fathom the supposed advantages of the high rake concept. Other high-tech, high DF series use low rake configs exclusively...do not they?

[the EDGE]

I am not an engineer, but I have never been able to fathom the supposed advantages of the high rake concept. Other high-tech, high DF series use low rake configs exclusively...do not they?

Higher rake is basically a way to increase the size of the diffuser, effectively using the whole floor of the car to create the low pressure zone under the car

However the higher you lift the car the more the air enters from sides which raise the air pressure and negates it effect

The secret is in using the air flowing over the car to create an air-seal at the side of the car to prevent air from entering under the car, so you can keep the air pressure low

This is difficult as keeping a constant seal whilst the car bumps along the track, and at different speeds is very difficult to achieve

A low rake will produce less suction, however it is far easier to achieve a constant effect

Spec series have zero need to run high rake, so you won’t see elsewhere. The only reason for its use in F1 is because of the limiting nature of the technical rules makes it a way of exploiting ground effects for lap time gain

[Scorpaguy]

Thanks Edge. However, I still cannot help but wonder why more folks do not seem to be aping the 7X WCC paradigm