I wouldn't bet on Maldonado, but I'm seriously considering betting for the first time, for Mercedes to win the race. Their updates look very promising, they do have a fast car and they seem to have sorted out the tyres. I don't think Ferrari will be there yet, and Kimi needs to up his game in qualifying to make a chance. I'm sorry, but I don't see McLaren being in serious contention, it's incredible to see them being so complacent for the last few races, both in the factory, in testing and on the pit wall.
You don't see Ferrari being where yet? In contention? I think it's clear the Mugello/Spain updates really improved the F2012 and on any given weekend it's right there with the best of them on Sunday. The one lap pace of the F2012 is lacking for sure compared to some of the others, but on Sunday the race pace is equal to the best. Considering all of their updates so far have added performance to the car, I don't think Canada will be any different and expect them to be in contention for a podium spot. Just my opinion.
I think in Montreal is possibly where we see Lotus finally break through and win one. They have the best top speed on the grid and seem to have the best aero efficiency. But a poor update or cooler weather could prevent this. Mercedes will surely be strong as will McLaren. I think the question is how good will the Red Bull, Ferrari & Sauber be? Very interesting GP weekend coming up. Especially with all the protest crap going about.