It's a pitty this discussion is being sparked in this thread - I think the team topic might be a better place for it, but here it goes anyway. Maybe Turbo or some mod might want to move it to a more appropriate topic.
turbof1 wrote:I personally feel it's back to equal now. Agreed: Hamilton had more failures, but Nico's failure weights very heavily so close to the end.
To be honest, the only thing about having a DNF so close to the end, to me, means that people tend to focus on it the most and tend to forget the other incidents there were over the season. We tend to focus on what is most recent.
turbof1 wrote:But didn't score the maximum points and that's the point: Hamilton retired in australia, canada and belgium. It could have costed him 75 points, but only did 61 points. Rosberg's 2 retirements costed him a potentional 50 points. In the end the retirements themselves don't matter, but how many points you loose.
That's because you aren't factoring in which positions they held when they suffered the DNFs, not to mention ignoring what the qualifying issues cost Hamilton at the same time. As an example; Rosberg only capitalized in Spa on 18 points because he caused the incident. If there wasn't any incident, he might have finished 2nd regardless. But lets not focus on this singular race, but lets go back and review all the races where there was a technical issue of some sort so that we get a complete picture:
Rd 1 - Australia - Hamilton DNF, Rosberg 25pt
Rd 7 - Canada - Hamilton DNF, Rosberg 18pt
Rd 9 - Silverstone - Hamilton 25pt, Rosberg DNF
Rd 10 - Hockenheim - Hamilton 15pt, Rosberg 25pt (Hamilton brake failure in Qualifying)
Rd 11 - Hungary - Hamilton 15pt, Rosberg 12pt (Hamiton started from the back of the grid, after his car was on fire in QF)
Rd 12 - Spa - Hamilton DNF, Rosberg 18pt (Collision with Rosberg)
Rd 14 - Singapore - Hamilton 25pt, Rosberg DNF
Lets go through them a bit more detailled:
Australia, Hamilton was starting from pole when his car started to have problems. For all we know, he could have won that race and started with the full 25pt and assuming Rosberg would have come 2nd, that'd be 18pt. So Hamilton lost 25pt, Rosberg gained 7pt.
Canada, both cars had problems, but it was Hamilton who suffered the brake failure. At the time his brakes failed, he was ahead of Rosberg. Hamilton lost 25pt, Rosberg nursed his car into 2nd, getting the 18pt he would have gotten at least anyway. Lets keep it at that; Hamilton lost 25pt, Rosberg gained nothing.
Silverstone, Rosberg suffered a gearbox failure while he was leading the race. I'm one of those who think Hamilton might have got him, but we don't know how much Rosberg was just controlling the pace. Lets assume Rosberg would have won it. So Hamilton gained 7pt, Rosberg lost 25pt.
Hockenheim, Hamilton suffered a brake disc failure in qualifying meaning he couldn't set a time in Q2, he ended up starting 20th. He couldn't challenge for pole at all, so it's our best guess where he would have qualified. Might have stuck it on pole and won the race the next day. We don't know. What we do know is that Rosberg had an easy win and Hamilton clawed his way through the race and finished 3rd. Lets assume he would have at least come 2nd with the pace he had in hand and without the failure in QF. So Hamilton lost
3pt [Correction], Rosberg gained nothing.
Hungary, Hamiltons car was on fire during Q1, meaning no time at all and he started from the pits. For all we know (and Hamilton is usually very strong in Hungary), he could have stuck it on pole. He certainly would have qualified on the front row with the pace advantage Mercedes had. Now, in the race, the safety car might have hurt Rosberg - we can't change that - but what he could have changed, is not get held up by Vergne in a TR. This caused him to lose time and concede a position (and technically, strategy) to Hamilton. Hamilton finished 3rd, Rosberg 4th. Can't argue a technical issue during the race, since it was Rosbergs own driving that prevented him finishing higher up. He crucially didn't find a way past Vergne and when the team ordered Hamilton to let his team-mate by, he wasn't even close enough to attempt a move on his own. Rosberg should have won this, yet it's quite evident he was playing the 'long game' and decided to not take too many risks.
Assuming a normal race; Rosberg should have won this (lost 13 pt) and Hamilton at least 2nd, (lost 3pt).
At Spa, Hamilton was the leading car when he suffered a puncture and damage to the car which lead to his retirement. Doesn't help this whole analysis that it was Rosberg himself who caused it and later state that he left his nose in their deliberately. So not a technical DNF. If we assume Rosberg would have conceded the win to Hamilton and not crash, we can say that Hamilton lost the full 25pt, Rosberg technically didn't lose anything since he still finished second.
Singapore, is easy. Hamilton started from the front row and probably would have won this anyway, given how hard Singapore is to overtake. Safety car might have stuffed things up for one of them, so they might not have finished 1-2 realistically, but we can't possibly factor that in. Lets assume an easy 1-2, and Hamilton gained nothing, and Rosberg lost 18pt.
So lets add it up;
Rosberg lost 25, 13 and 18pt (56pt), but gained 7pt. So, in total, he
lost 49 points.
Hamilton lost 25, 25, 3, 3, 25pt (81pt), but gained 7pt. So, in total, he
lost 74 points.
That's a differential of 25 points. If we exclude Hungary, because the safety car botched things up for both, we exclude loses of 13pt for Rosberg and 3pt for Hamilton, bringing it down to 36 points for Rosberg and 71 points for Hamilton. Anyway you cut it, it still isn't equal. Hamilton might be fortunate enough that he is in a damn fast car that somewhat limited the damage he suffered in Hockenheim and Hungary (where he had to fight through the field), but it still lost him valuable points in his fight in the WDC. One way or the other, 25 points is a large differential to call anything equal or level. Some might feel the above analysis is too kind on Hamilton (assuming he would have won Australia, Canada and Spa), but at the same time, the same above analysis assumes straight victories for Rosberg in Silverstone, Hockenheim and Hungary. I think it equals out.
[Corrected]
Then, there's another thing to factor in; Hamilton most probably had to drive his car harder in order to make up for the places he lost through in technical issues in qualifying (Hockenheim where he started 20th, Hungary where he started from the pitlane). At the very least, his car that was on fire at Hungary has put him at a disadvantage with the available PUs, whereas Rosberg has usually been at the front and could to some degree drive with less risks and at a slower relative pace. We might still see the effects of this as the season comes to an end. IMO - we haven't seen the last DNF strike a Mercedes yet. My hunch is, it'll be Hamiltons car (though of course I hope neither actually suffer anymore DNFs).
[EDIT: Corrected Hockenheim; Lewis only lost 3pt, not 5pt.]
