2017 Championship Permutations

[adrianjordan]

As we approach the final quarter of the championship I was wondering whether someone with a better head for figures fancied having a go at working out the permutations going forward for the WDC and WCC??

[TAG]

The WCC permutations are unless a Mercedes transport plane crash taking down all of their equipment, both cars and spare parts... the WCC is over.

[Jolle]

knowing that Hamilton won half the races of the hybrid cars and half the races this year plus his high record of finishing, this championship, with the 28 advantage in points, is more or less over.

[DiogoBrand]

The WCC permutations are unless a Mercedes transport plane crash taking down all of their equipment, both cars and spare parts... the WCC is over.

Only if all their designs for the cars are also on that plane.

[foxmulder_ms]

The lead is 28, wins are 7 vs 4.

If there is no DNF from anyone then Vettel needs to win 5 of the remaining 6 races assuming Hamilton will be the next best. Even if there they share remaining races 4-2 in Vettels favor, it is not enough!

In other words, as long as there is no DNF, Hamilton won the championship.

My personal opinion, the race will be over in Mexico because I think lead will be increasing to 50 points by then.

[Fulcrum]

I might be wrong, but Vettel is also more likely to take an engine penalty than Hamilton.

I did a pretty detailed analysis of this last year when the gap was fairly similar - larger actually - being 33 points with 4 races left, but of course that was a comparison between team mates in a highly dominant car.

Assuming perfect reliability, and incident free races, it's an almost certainty in Hamilton's favour. At no stage during the season has Vettel scored 33 points more than Hamilton for any sustained period. Of course, incidents and reliability are likely to factor in somewhere, but I'd favour Mercedes over Ferrari in those stakes as well.

Of the 6 remaining circuits, Ferrari need to dominate in Malaysia and Japan for there to be any hope of a competitive conclusion to the season. Vettel actually needs Raikkonen to finish ahead of Hamilton and, while that has happened 3 times this year, you wouldn't bet on that prospect.

[TAG]

Of the 6 remaining circuits, Ferrari need to dominate in Malaysia and Japan for their to be any hope of a competitive conclusion to the season. Vettel actually needs Raikkonen to finish ahead of Hamilton and, while that has happened 3 times this year, you wouldn't bet on that prospect.

and Bottas has finished ahead of Vettel 6 times this year. Unless there's a DNF it's a tall order, but Nico knows how much of a shot in the arm towards a WDC a main rival's DNF can be.

[Moose]

As lots of you have observed, it's effectively over, but... what's the first time it can *really* be over?

If Hamilton wins 3 races, and Vettel DNFs in 2, and finishes 8th or lower in the 3rd, then hamilton will have a 100 point lead, with 4 races to go, and have too many race wins for the gap to be assailable.

More realistically, assuming that Vettel finishes 2nd in races, if Hamilton won the next 5 races, he'd have a 63 point lead with 50 still on the table.

Long story short - it's not over 'til the fat lady sings, but it's likely it'll be over with 1 or 2 races to spare

[NathanOlder]

More realistically, assuming that Vettel finishes 2nd in races, if Hamilton won the next 5 races, he'd have a 63 point lead with 50 still on the table.

If Hamilton won the next 4 races with Vettel 2nd he would have a 56pt lead with 50 available.

As there are 6 races to go and not 7 Moose

[Phil]

If we take the averages of the season so far (without counting DNFs), we have

Hamilton:
completed: 14 races
wins: 7 (175pts)
2nds: 2 (36pts)
4ths: 3 (36pts)
5ths: 1 (10pts)
7th: 1 (6pts)
Total: 263pts

Avg: 18.8 pts per completed race

Vettel:
completed: 13 races
wins: 4 (100pts)
2nds: 5 (90pts)
3rds: 1 (15pts)
4th: 2 (24pts)
7th: 1 (6pts)
Total: 235pts

Avg: 18.1 pts per completed race

Not good.

However, if we exclude Vettels DNF at Singapore and just assume for a moment he would have won that race and that Mercedes own projection of 4th being the best for Hamilton, we'd end up with slightly different total points of 235+25 for Vettel = 260 pts vs. 263-25+12 = 250 pts for Hamilton.

This would yield the following average points:

Hamilton: 17.857 points per race
Vettel: 18.571 points per race

Assuming this is a reasonable estimation of the season so far, Vettel has been stronger over the entire season, getting .7 points more per race. However with only 6 races left and the gap being at 28 points, it's still more likely that it would go to the last race, as the difference by then would be less than 25 points. And going into the last race with a potential DNF on the table, well, it could always go wrong for the leading driver.

Apparently, the last 3 tracks could favour Vettel/Ferrari and in my estimate, Kimi could play a key figure. Assuming the last 3 tracks go to Vettel with Kimi or someone else in 2nd, Hamilton could lose 30 points in those 3 races. This means that IMO Malaysia and CotA will be crucial for Hamilton to get right and will determine how close this championship will turn out to be.

Adding to that; when one looks at how this championship has panned out so far; Hamilton has only been on the podium twice when not winning the race. This means, assuming Vettel wins the race, there's a rather low probability that Hamilton will be there on it, meaning bigger points loss vs. Vettel. On the other hand, Vettel has been on the podium 6 times when not winning the race. This suggests Hamilton is more vulnerable of losing points when not winning than when Vettel is not winning.

In other words, it's far more likely that Vettel wins big on the last 3 races (if he wins) and Hamilton will find himself best in 3rd or lower with massive points loss. When Ferrari is strong, expect both Ferraris to do well.

[Jolle]

If we take the averages of the season so far (without counting DNFs), we have

Hamilton:
completed: 14 races
wins: 7 (175pts)
2nds: 2 (36pts)
4ths: 3 (36pts)
5ths: 1 (10pts)
7th: 1 (6pts)
Total: 263pts

Avg: 18.8 pts per completed race

Vettel:
completed: 13 races
wins: 4 (100pts)
2nds: 5 (90pts)
3rds: 1 (15pts)
4th: 2 (24pts)
7th: 1 (6pts)
Total: 235pts

Avg: 18.1 pts per completed race

Not good.

However, if we exclude Vettels DNF at Singapore and just assume for a moment he would have won that race and that Mercedes own projection of 4th being the best for Hamilton, we'd end up with slightly different total points of 235+25 for Vettel = 260 pts vs. 263-25+12 = 250 pts for Hamilton.

This would yield the following average points:

Hamilton: 17.857 points per race
Vettel: 18.571 points per race

Assuming this is a reasonable estimation of the season so far, Vettel has been stronger over the entire season, getting .7 points more per race. However with only 6 races left and the gap being at 28 points, it's still more likely that it would go to the last race, as the difference by then would be less than 25 points. And going into the last race with a potential DNF on the table, well, it could always go wrong for the leading driver.

Apparently, the last 3 tracks could favour Vettel/Ferrari and in my estimate, Kimi could play a key figure. Assuming the last 3 tracks go to Vettel with Kimi or someone else in 2nd, Hamilton could lose 30 points in those 3 races. This means that IMO Malaysia and CotA will be crucial for Hamilton to get right and will determine how close this championship will turn out to be.

Adding to that; when one looks at how this championship has panned out so far; Hamilton has only been on the podium twice when not winning the race. This means, assuming Vettel wins the race, there's a rather low probability that Hamilton will be there on it, meaning bigger points loss vs. Vettel. On the other hand, Vettel has been on the podium 6 times when not winning the race. This suggests Hamilton is more vulnerable of losing points when not winning than when Vettel is not winning.

In other words, it's far more likely that Vettel wins big on the last 3 races (if he wins) and Hamilton will find himself best in 3rd or lower with massive points loss. When Ferrari is strong, expect both Ferraris to do well.

And next to it, Hamilton has been very consistent during the last four seasons and this season nearly flawless. Also, until now, Ferrari had Kimi as a clear backup, to help Vettel's champions-position while Bottas can go for his own succes. This means that there is still a small advantage to gain.
Then the car. Mercedes had a few problems this year, one DNF due to a PU not doing its work and one or two gearboxes. But the car won 9 races, compared to Ferrari's 4. Pole: 10 to 4.

Yes it's possible that Hamilton has a few DNF's, or that Ferrari "turnes on" on the next 6 tracks, but if nothing really funnies happens, it's a simple win for Hamilton/Mercedes.

[TAG]

There's a good healthy amount of assumptions there @Phil.

A dedicated number two driver goes a long way. Bottas will be there for Hamilton soon, and when I say be there, I mean not making Hamilton give a position back. There's also Baku where Hamilton would have won and Vettel should have been disqualified, so the numbers are skewed because life doesn't always play by the rules or go according to the statistics.

[Phil]

Let me explain a bit more coherently (and analytically):

Sadly, I am not sure Bottas will be of much help. Either he will be well behind Hamilton, so not in a position to help, or he might be in the lead at which point him scoring a win would probably be better (vs. Ferrari/Vettel) than switching positions. Either way, he is still in the hunt and I am not particularly convinced Mercedes would be strong enough to "manipulate" the race result. They are quite conscious about how their success is perceived. With Hamilton having quite a lead now, they may choose to be more passive, than Ferrari would be under similar circumstances IMO.

For Ferrari, it's a no-brainer. Even if Kimi outqualifies Vettel, I have seen nothing so far that would suggest Ferrari not wanting Kimi to drive in Vettels interest, even if it would mean using him as a pawn and sacrifice a win in order to help Vettel out.

What worries me more as a Mercedes/Hamilton supporter is that I genuinely believe that Ferrari/Vettel will be rather strong in at least 3 of the upcoming 6 races. To re-iterate my point, when Vettel has won the race, Hamilton has only been on the podium twice. Vice-versa, when Hamilton won, Vettel was on the podium 6 times. And there are two races that warp the stats a bit, those being Silverstone (Hamilton won while both Ferraris imploded with tire-issues on the last lap) and Singapore where Vettel would/should have won.

In my estimation; Vettel should have won Singapore with Hamilton down in 4th best-case.
Also: At Silverstone, Vettel (assuming team-orders) should have finished in 3rd behind Hamilton and Bottas.

Lets put that into numbers:

Hamilton: 6 wins, and in 5 races where Vettel won, would have finished in: twice 2nd, twice 4th and one time 7th. That puts Hamiltons average finishing position where Vettel won at exactly 3.8. In points, that's 18+18+12+12+6 = 66 points vs 125 points, so Hamilton lost 59 points or 11.8 points on average at the races he didn't win.

Vettel: 5 wins, and in the 6 races where Hamilton won, would have finished in: thrice 2nd, twice 3rd, and one 4th. That puts Vettels average finishing position where Hamilton won at 2.7. That's on average one position better than Hamilton. In points that's 18+18+18+15+15+12 = 96 points vs 150 so Vettel lost 54 points or 9 points on average at the races he didn't win.


Now, lets just assume that Ferrari is strong in at least 4 of the upcoming 6 races. Using the above average points of each, for 4 wins going to Vettel, Hamilton would lose an average of 11.8 points per race, or 4*11.8 = 47.2 points. Assuming Hamilton wins the other two races, Vettel would lose a total of 9*2 = 18 points. -28 (gap now) + 47.2 - 18 = 1.2 points in Vettels favor.

Of course, races don't give decimal points. If we don't work with averages and use a close approximation of likely positions getting as close as possible to the calculated average (3.8 for Hamilton, 2.7 for Vettel), we can assume that on the 4 races Vettel wins, Hamilton finishes 3 times in 4th and 1 time in 3rd (average = 3.75 which is pretty close to 3.8 ), that would mean Hamilton loses 49 points to Vettel on those 4 races (12+12+12+15 vs 100). On the two races Hamilton presumably wins we can either assume Vettel is one time 2nd and one time 3rd (average 2.5) or two times 3rd (average 3): Scenario A would yield a loss of 17 points and Scenario B would yield a loss of 20 points vs Hamilton.

Scenario A: -28+49-17 = 4 points in Vettels favor.
Scenario B: -28+49-20 = 1 point in Vettels favor.


So in my analytical estimation, if Vettel happens to win 4 of the next 6 races, there's a very high probability that Vettel will indeed win the championship, even if Hamilton wins the other 2 races. I think Malaysia, Japan and CotA will be potential Hamilton tracks where it will be crucial for him to win.

[Jolle]

Let me explain a bit more coherently (and analytically):

Sadly, I am not sure Bottas will be of much help. Either he will be well behind Hamilton, so not in a position to help, or he might be in the lead at which point him scoring a win would probably be better (vs. Ferrari/Vettel) than switching positions. Either way, he is still in the hunt and I am not particularly convinced Mercedes would be strong enough to "manipulate" the race result. They are quite conscious about how their success is perceived. With Hamilton having quite a lead now, they may choose to be more passive, than Ferrari would be under similar circumstances IMO.

For Ferrari, it's a no-brainer. Even if Kimi outqualifies Vettel, I have seen nothing so far that would suggest Ferrari not wanting Kimi to drive in Vettels interest, even if it would mean using him as a pawn and sacrifice a win in order to help Vettel out.

What worries me more as a Mercedes/Hamilton supporter is that I genuinely believe that Ferrari/Vettel will be rather strong in at least 3 of the upcoming 6 races. To re-iterate my point, when Vettel has won the race, Hamilton has only been on the podium twice. Vice-versa, when Hamilton won, Vettel was on the podium 6 times. And there are two races that warp the stats a bit, those being Silverstone (Hamilton won while both Ferraris imploded with tire-issues on the last lap) and Singapore where Vettel would/should have won.

In my estimation; Vettel should have won Singapore with Hamilton down in 4th best-case.
Also: At Silverstone, Vettel (assuming team-orders) should have finished in 3rd behind Hamilton and Bottas.

Lets put that into numbers:

Hamilton: 6 wins, and in 5 races where Vettel won, would have finished in: twice 2nd, twice 4th and one time 7th. That puts Hamiltons average finishing position where Vettel won at exactly 3.8. In points, that's 18+18+12+12+6 = 66 points vs 125 points, so Hamilton lost 59 points or 11.8 points on average at the races he didn't win.

Vettel: 5 wins, and in the 6 races where Hamilton won, would have finished in: thrice 2nd, twice 3rd, and one 4th. That puts Vettels average finishing position where Hamilton won at 2.7. That's on average one position better than Hamilton. In points that's 18+18+18+15+15+12 = 96 points vs 150 so Vettel lost 54 points or 9 points on average at the races he didn't win.


Now, lets just assume that Ferrari is strong in at least 4 of the upcoming 6 races. Using the above average points of each, for 4 wins going to Vettel, Hamilton would lose an average of 11.8 points per race, or 4*11.8 = 47.2 points. Assuming Hamilton wins the other two races, Vettel would lose a total of 9*2 = 18 points. -28 (gap now) + 47.2 - 18 = 1.2 points in Vettels favor.

Of course, races don't give decimal points. If we don't work with averages and simply ceil (opposite of floor) the positions, we can assume that on the 4 races Vettel wins, Hamilton finishes 3 times in 4th and 1 time in 3rd (average = 3.75 which is pretty close to 3.8 ), that would mean Hamilton loses 49 points to Vettel on those 4 races (12+12+12+15 vs 100). On the two races Hamilton presumably wins we can either assume Vettel is one time 2nd and one time 3rd (average 2.5) or two times 3rd (average 3): Scenario A would yield a loss of 17 points and Scenario B would yield a loss of 20 points vs Hamilton.

Scenario A: -28+49-17 = 4 points in Vettels favor.
Scenario B: -28+49-20 = 1 point in Vettels favor.


So in my analytical estimation, if Vettel happens to win 4 of the next 6 races, there's a very high probability that Vettel will indeed win the championship, even if Hamilton wins the other 2 races. I think Malaysia, Japan and CotA will be potential Hamilton tracks where it will be crucial for him to win.

But then you’re calculating everything to Vettel, that’s not how the season went. For instance. Baku, what was in Hamilton’s hand easy and I believe Austria where he had to take a gearbox penalty. This would/could have been two wins.
And in numbers Mercedes is simply dominating the season, twice the wins of Ferrari and 100+ points in the constructors.

I think we’re just not used to having another car then a Mercedes as a possible race winner, but the difference is so big, that I will be 4 race wins for Mercedes and 2 for Vettel.

[Phil]

Jolle, I don't believe Baku would have changed my calculations at all. Baku, would have been a Hamilton win and Vettel second, which only betters the odds in Vettels favor (of achieving a statistical higher finishing position in the races where Hamilton wins).

My calculations aren't suggesting the probability of who is going to win the next 6 races. My calculations are merely pointing out that on average, Vettel has finished on average a lot higher when NOT winning versus Hamilton who has statistically finished lower when Vettel has won. It's undisputed that Ferrari has been very strong on certain tracks - if we assume that Ferrari will be strong again on at least 3 of the next 6 races, the statistical finishing positions of the driver not winning are rather important to assess and IMO show Vettel to be at an advantage.

In other words, my calculations suggest that on the tracks where Ferrari might win due to having a car better suited to that track, statistically, it's more likely Hamilton will finish on average 3.8 or worse (for example because Kimi will more often than not be ahead of Hamilton too). On the tracks where Hamilton/Mercedes might be stronger, Vettel is still likely to finish higher (than Hamilton when Vettel wins) - as per my numbers, on average position 2.7. You see where I am going?