2017 Championship Permutations

[NathanOlder]

I agree. Hamilton has been at it all season.

All the pressure has been on Vettel and Ferrari. Hamilton and Mercedes has somehow been seen as the underdogs.

Yeah, i think Hamiltons driving this whole year has been faultless. How many mistakes has he made, in races he hasn't even run wide and onto a run off or grass. In qualy he hasnt been off or spun. Even in practice he hasnt binned it and lost session time. Fully deserved

[Restomaniac]

I agree. Hamilton has been at it all season.

All the pressure has been on Vettel and Ferrari. Hamilton and Mercedes has somehow been seen as the underdogs.

Yeah, i think Hamiltons driving this whole year has been faultless. How many mistakes has he made, in races he hasn't even run wide and onto a run off or grass. In qualy he hasnt been off or spun. Even in practice he hasnt binned it and lost session time. Fully deserved

I actually meant that he has been verbally ratcheting the pressure up on Ferrari and Vettel but yes he has been somewhat good.

[NathanOlder]

I agree. Hamilton has been at it all season.

All the pressure has been on Vettel and Ferrari. Hamilton and Mercedes has somehow been seen as the underdogs.

Yeah, i think Hamiltons driving this whole year has been faultless. How many mistakes has he made, in races he hasn't even run wide and onto a run off or grass. In qualy he hasnt been off or spun. Even in practice he hasnt binned it and lost session time. Fully deserved

I actually meant that he has been verbally ratcheting the pressure up on Ferrari and Vettel but yes he has been somewhat good.

Ah ok yeah, sorry i misread that. Like you say, Hamilton has made it sound like Ferrari have had the best car all year instead of some of it.

[Restomaniac]

Yeah, i think Hamiltons driving this whole year has been faultless. How many mistakes has he made, in races he hasn't even run wide and onto a run off or grass. In qualy he hasnt been off or spun. Even in practice he hasnt binned it and lost session time. Fully deserved

I actually meant that he has been verbally ratcheting the pressure up on Ferrari and Vettel but yes he has been somewhat good.

Ah ok yeah, sorry i misread that. Like you say, Hamilton has made it sound like Ferrari have had the best car all year instead of some of it.

Indeed. Then things like Bottas calling the Mercedes a Diva.

I think mentally they have destroyed Ferrari. Ferrari have pushed like mad to stay ahead because everyone (probably including them!) thought that they should and had to be.

All the while Mercedes have been doing that German/British thing of just efficiently getting on with it.

[Moose]

In Mexico,

If Hamilton finishes first, he is the world champion
If Hamilton finishes second, he is the world champion
If Hamilton finishes third, he is the world champion
If Hamilton finishes fourth, he is the world champion
If Hamilton finishes fifth, he is the world champion
If Hamilton finishes sixth, Vettel must finish first to keep the championship battle alive
If Hamilton finishes seventh, Vettel must finish first to keep the championship battle alive
If Hamilton finishes eighth, Vettel must finish first to keep the championship battle alive
If Hamilton finishes ninth, Vettel must finish first to keep the championship battle alive
If Hamilton finishes tenth, Vettel must finish second to keep the championship battle alive
If Hamilton does not score, Vettel must finish second to keep the championship battle alive

[ringo]

Yeah, i think Hamiltons driving this whole year has been faultless. How many mistakes has he made, in races he hasn't even run wide and onto a run off or grass. In qualy he hasnt been off or spun. Even in practice he hasnt binned it and lost session time. Fully deserved

I actually meant that he has been verbally ratcheting the pressure up on Ferrari and Vettel but yes he has been somewhat good.

Ah ok yeah, sorry i misread that. Like you say, Hamilton has made it sound like Ferrari have had the best car all year instead of some of it.

I think he is going of what he sees on track and also what the engineers are telling. We also hear the same thing from Vettel. Who keeps reinforcing that the car is very strong and could have won the last 3 races.
I was listening to brundle comment on qualifying, and he highlighted how much understeer was in the w08 and how Hamilton is somehow wrestling the car but managing to find pace in it. I think that was saying much on how this car handles and why Bottas has not been able to extract performance.
Contrastingly the ferrari has been more sure footed in the most recent races by memory. Hamilton can't keep balancing the car on the edge, he has to drop the ball at least once in the upcoming races.
I was kind of expecting some fading in the US because of the distractions from his celebrity friends, but he has seemed to just focus on the job at hand once the lid closes.
Ferrari can maybe try to destabilize him mentally. Maybe send some nice italian girls to his hotel room the night before qualifying and race.

[dans79]

If my math is correct if Lewis finishes fifth or higher in any of the remaining three races he wins the championship.

[Jolle]

Hamilton has been very consistent the last couple of years.
2014: 384 points, 11 wins, 3 DNF’s
2015: 381 points, 10 wins, 1 DNF
2016: 380 points, 10 wins, 2 DNF’s
2017: 331 points so far, with 75 on the table. 11 wins, no DNF.

So, two second places and one DNF to make it an average season for him

If he does win one of more GP’s, this will be his best season ever.

[TAG]

I agree. Hamilton has been at it all season.

All the pressure has been on Vettel and Ferrari. Hamilton and Mercedes has somehow been seen as the underdogs.

Read these post race comments from Hamilton and they drip with cage rattling. The unsettling has increased if nothing else, it's as if from an execution standpoint they've been on the back foot since Spa.

“But then I could see him pushing and I’m thinking ‘I’m pretty good on my tyres right now, he’s going too quick through that corner, he’s going to kill his tyres’.”

“And that’s what he did, he was driving too quick through those corners and he didn’t have to. The temperatures would have been going up. If he had backed off in those places he would have been able to keep me behind, I’m certain, but he didn’t.”

These next three races @Phil are going to put your hypothesis to the test.

One nice personal touch thing, I do hope Hamilton gets one of the three. He'd become the only driver in the sport ever with double digit wins four years running. Mexico may prove to be Mercedes' biggest challenge. Let's see.

[Fulcrum]

When I read the comments on this particular thread, I can't help but notice a compulsive obsession to see a fight for championship to go down till the last race, at an insane expectation/wish of seeing a lead driver failing to finish a race, meeting with some kind of misfortune that takes that driver out of the championship contention itself and what not. It's like, if a sprinter has taken a healthy lead, the audience is desperately expecting that sprinter to trip down so that chasing pack comes near and then get up and run, so that the fight goes down to last step in that sprint. Amazing.

A fight is worth the entertainment, when it just naturally happens to be A FIGHT. Not because misfortune handicaps a driver, even worse, when people GENUINELY WISH the hard working individual to meet misfortune for the sake of A FIGHT.

It was a pity to see Schumacher lose the title in 2006 due to a misfortune, it was a pity to see Hamilton lose the contest in 2012 due to loads of misfortune, it was a pity to see Alonso lose 2012 contest due to some misfortune, it was a pity to see Hamilton lose the battle in 2016 due to misfortune and IT IS INDEED a pity to see Vettel's chances having gotten reduced in the battle due to misfortune this year. But it would be sick to see people expecting to see misfortune to befell on a driver, just to have A FIGHT.

This thread has provided a great example of cognitive dissonance on the part of some. I now see a comment about how Ferrari were on average faster than Mercedes during this race.

Honestly, when one point fails, another is manufactured to try to shorten the factual distance between Hamilton and Vettel in favour of the belief they are neck and neck. At no point has there been any interaction with the data - it's pure, unsubstantiated bias with every post.

Go and look at the data and you come to the conclusion I drew after Singapore; Hamilton winning fairly comfortably, unless he has seriously bad luck.

This race was a great microcosm of the season in my opinion. Hamilton has enough in hand to control races. He qualifies in front, he usually leads into the first corner. If Ferrari try to go aggressive, they run out of rubber and have to take an extra stop, or slow down at the end. If they try to lean out their tyres, Mercedes are simply 0.2 - 0.4 seconds a lap faster anyway.

It's frustrating that the championship has become stale so close to the end, but facts are facts. Reality distortion fields won't change the fact this one is over, barring the most unprecedented collapse ever witnessed in F1.

[Bill_Kar]

So in Mexico it is the other way around in terms of clinching the title.
-If Vettel wins, Hamilton needs 5th or better
-If Vettel 2nd, Hamilton needs 9th or better
-If Vettel 3rd or worse, Hamilton clinches the title.

[Restomaniac]

I actually meant that he has been verbally ratcheting the pressure up on Ferrari and Vettel but yes he has been somewhat good.

Ah ok yeah, sorry i misread that. Like you say, Hamilton has made it sound like Ferrari have had the best car all year instead of some of it.

I think he is going of what he sees on track and also what the engineers are telling. We also hear the same thing from Vettel. Who keeps reinforcing that the car is very strong and could have won the last 3 races.
I was listening to brundle comment on qualifying, and he highlighted how much understeer was in the w08 and how Hamilton is somehow wrestling the car but managing to find pace in it. I think that was saying much on how this car handles and why Bottas has not been able to extract performance.
Contrastingly the ferrari has been more sure footed in the most recent races by memory. Hamilton can't keep balancing the car on the edge, he has to drop the ball at least once in the upcoming races.
I was kind of expecting some fading in the US because of the distractions from his celebrity friends, but he has seemed to just focus on the job at hand once the lid closes.
Ferrari can maybe try to destabilize him mentally. Maybe send some nice italian girls to his hotel room the night before qualifying and race.

I think Hamilton and Mercedes have been mentally piling it on Vettel and Ferrari all season. Right from the start with Hamilton's comment about how no team has retained the WCC through a reg change with everyone falling for it (Including me). There have been races where the Ferrari has looked a handful and the Mercedes has looked calm as well. Yet Mercedes and Hamilton have been the underdog. For me that is why Ferrari have been pushing SO hard with updates including turning their engine up to 12 (Including having to burn their fuel to silly levels more that once recently) which has caused failures.

That's the art of mind games right there.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Hamilton has been very consistent the last couple of years.
2014: 384 points, 11 wins, 3 DNF’s
2015: 381 points, 10 wins, 1 DNF
2016: 380 points, 10 wins, 2 DNF’s
2017: 331 points so far, with 75 on the table. 11 wins, no DNF.

So, two second places and one DNF to make it an average season for him

If he does win one of more GP’s, this will be his best season ever.

Nine wins so far with 11 Poles. This is how it stands.
2014: 384 points, 7 Poles, 11 wins, 3 DNF’s
2015: 381 points, 11 Poles, 10 wins, 1 DNF
2016: 380 points, 12 Poles, 10 wins, 2 DNF’s
2017: 331 points so far, 11 Poles, 9 Wins, 0 DNFs. 3 more races and 75 points on the table.

[Jolle]

Hamilton has been very consistent the last couple of years.
2014: 384 points, 11 wins, 3 DNF’s
2015: 381 points, 10 wins, 1 DNF
2016: 380 points, 10 wins, 2 DNF’s
2017: 331 points so far, with 75 on the table. 11 wins, no DNF.

So, two second places and one DNF to make it an average season for him

If he does win one of more GP’s, this will be his best season ever.

Nine wins so far with 11 Poles. This is how it stands.
2014: 384 points, 7 Poles, 11 wins, 3 DNF’s
2015: 381 points, 11 Poles, 10 wins, 1 DNF
2016: 380 points, 12 Poles, 10 wins, 2 DNF’s
2017: 331 points so far, 11 Poles, 9 Wins, 0 DNFs. 3 more races and 75 points on the table.

Oh yes, my bad. Two wins and a DNF and he’s got a nice year

[Restomaniac]

I agree. Hamilton has been at it all season.

All the pressure has been on Vettel and Ferrari. Hamilton and Mercedes has somehow been seen as the underdogs.

Read these post race comments from Hamilton and they drip with cage rattling. The unsettling has increased if nothing else, it's as if from an execution standpoint they've been on the back foot since Spa.

“But then I could see him pushing and I’m thinking ‘I’m pretty good on my tyres right now, he’s going too quick through that corner, he’s going to kill his tyres’.”

“And that’s what he did, he was driving too quick through those corners and he didn’t have to. The temperatures would have been going up. If he had backed off in those places he would have been able to keep me behind, I’m certain, but he didn’t.”

These next three races @Phil are going to put your hypothesis to the test.

One nice personal touch thing, I do hope Hamilton gets one of the three. He'd become the only driver in the sport ever with double digit wins four years running. Mexico may prove to be Mercedes' biggest challenge. Let's see.

Indeed. You could listen to him and Mercedes all season and it's textbook mind games.

People need to remember that Mercedes haven't just thrown their other driver under the bus unlike some teams. If they had Hamilton would probably have been WDC already.
Examples are Hamilton voluntarily giving up 3 points in Hungary compared to Raikkonen having to sit screaming at the team like a lemon behind a team mate with screwed steering in the exact same race IIRC.