2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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kptaylor
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Joined: 01 Feb 2012, 22:11
Location: Phoenix, AZ, USA

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Phil wrote:
08 May 2018, 12:05

The implication gargour87 was making, is that "it doesn't make a difference what tire allocations teams go for prior to the GP weekend because they'll end up having the same after Q3".

This is clearly over simplified. Tire allocations matter. While it may be true that after Q3 many end up with a very similar allocation of tires available for the race, the intel gathered on what they did bring to the weekend varies greatly.

Williams:
Stroll has 3 medium tires, 1 set of softs and 9 sets of SS.
Sirotikin has 2 medium tires, 1 set of softs and 10 sets of SS.

Sauber:
Ericsson has 2 medium tires, 4 sets of softs and 7 sets of SS.
Leclerc has 3 medium tires, 3 sets of softs and 7 sets of SS.

Force-India:
Perez/Ocon have 4 medium tires, 3 sets of softs and 6 sets of SS.

What this means is that Williams have no scope to test the soft tire and race the tire in the GP. They could run it on one car and save it on the other, but that would compromise one of their drivers. If they don't use the soft tire during free practice, then they risk running that tire during that race without having a single shred of data from this weekend and that compound.

This can lead to a case like in Baku when Kimi Raikkönnen was sent out in Q2 on a set of SS he had never driven on that track. He got the braking wrong and ruined his set for the race. Tire wasted.

Formula 1 is data driven. Tire allocations are crucial. Getting it wrong and you may not be able to run them at all. I listed the allocations of Williams, Sauber and Force-India above to illustrate the 3 teams differing allocations and their implications. Having only 1 set of a tire compound means you will have little to no data on that tire. Sauber and Force-India have more leeway. How is this important?

In the case of Williams, lets say they save a set of medium tires for each driver for the race. That means they can use 2+1 sets during practice. With the new track surface, perhaps the soft tire is the better tire though. But how would/could they know for sure if they never run it during practice? And if they do, they won't have any left for the race.
Or Williams will have KUB use the soft tire in FP1 and that way they avoid the inevitable comparisons between the drivers' times and his times... :roll:

adb
adb
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Joined: 07 Mar 2018, 19:17

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Maybe Williams have gone for so many supersoft tires to give their drivers more low-fuel/quali runs? They have been struggling with that in first races

Manoah2u
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Joined: 24 Feb 2013, 14:07

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Williams is virtually history. If Martini would have stayed, it would have been different, but that's not the case and that's a big sponsor gap they are not going to fill.
Dady Stroll has been pouring in millions to no avail. They hired Paddy Lowe with the idea it would bring them a competitive car again, but severely overestimated what he can do in such short timespan - nobody can, not even newey. Meanwhile, Lowe is not cheap, so more money 'disappears'. Stroll isn't that big of a deal, he's not bad at all, but despite some lucky and some hopeful performances last year, he isn't any better than the likes of Ericsson for example - not a star driver that can squeeze the most out of the car. They now have resorted to full paydriver lineup to pay the bills, and have Kubica for input and experience to atleast have some intelligence in the cars. They had to lay off Massa, so more loss of knowledge and intelligence.
Their situation now is grim; for years they have been dangling about, with a suprise jump in 2014 thanks to the Mercedes engine, Bottas, and surely Toto's (indirect) involvement through Susie and Bottas and Martini's money, paired to Massa's experience. Unfortunately, it's still ran by the same incompetence (yes, i'm talking Claire here) and meanwhile, Renault and especially Ferrari have gigantically improved their engines AND likewise other teams so their initial 'benefit' has disappeared like snow in the sun.
And on top of that, they already have been losing quite some sponsors, are losing more, and also are losing Martini after this season.
both drivers are absolutely crap and the competition is ferocious.

Something seriously need to happen there. If not, they're going to fumble.

If they're smart, they'll accept being a Mercedes B-team for a few years so they can get things sorted out again. Live on that, ditch crap drivers, get good Merc drivers (like Ocon), and restructure and abandon the failing concept they've been persuing for a while now. IF for some reason Mercedes' decides to pull the plug from the F1 main team (AMG), then they're in the hot seat for becoming essentially the 'works' team - like Mclaren once was.

Or, start talking to Honda.

Either way, Spain is not going to be any good for them. The other teams are in much better positions and there is not going to be such spectacular circumstances as in Baku. Not to mention Sirotkin didn't even last a lap there. He's dead last in the standings. Atleast stroll has learned to take less risks and drive more carefully and that has brought him points in Baku - even though he still lucked in hugely due to the chaotic race.

Grosjean's dumbass crash, Max and Danny's clash, Niko's dumbass crash, and Bottas' total non-luck and all the safety car situations provided a platform for points. In all reality, 15th would have been the right finish position.

I don't see how they're going to improve or overcome the issues this year - whilst the competition improves and invests hugely too, whilst they simply can't.

for 2019 they're going to have to run more or less this years car the way this is going - so only worse.

anything they do now is simply to get attention in some session in the hopes they atleast get some viewtime and some talk. it's hardly going to matter which tires they'll run during the race imho. they're not going to be able to be competitive. they'd be better off in tuning things down and saving parts, wings, and engine mileage, and save it for potential chaotic quallys and races. Monaco for example, if they can qualify in a good position there, knowing overtaking is really hard there, virtually impossible, they'll need to use all they have for strategy and power, and hope/expect people in front (max, danny, vettel, kimi, ocon, perez) to make contact/crash and benefit from that.

totally outside of williams though - i hope Sainz or Alonso wins.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"


foxmulder_ms
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Joined: 10 Feb 2011, 20:36

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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That kid crying for Raikonnen... So sweet and silly haha :)

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PlatinumZealot
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Joined: 12 Jun 2008, 03:45

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Mercedes will be half a second faster than Ferrari here. Total Domination.

Lewis
Bottas
Vestappen
Vettel
Ricc
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Fulcrum
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Joined: 25 Aug 2014, 18:05

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
09 May 2018, 04:27
Mercedes will be half a second faster than Ferrari here. Total Domination.

Lewis
Bottas
Vestappen
Vettel
Ricc
3 tenths, but yeah, probably comfortable.

gargour87
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Joined: 27 Mar 2018, 11:17

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Fulcrum wrote:
09 May 2018, 06:54
PlatinumZealot wrote:
09 May 2018, 04:27
Mercedes will be half a second faster than Ferrari here. Total Domination.

Lewis
Bottas
Vestappen
Vettel
Ricc
3 tenths, but yeah, probably comfortable.
Based on Baku S2 times I can assure you that Ferrari have mega downforce in their car. so exclude Mercedes will dominate on this track where downforce and traction are very important.

Fulcrum
15
Joined: 25 Aug 2014, 18:05

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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gargour87 wrote:
09 May 2018, 07:20
Fulcrum wrote:
09 May 2018, 06:54
PlatinumZealot wrote:
09 May 2018, 04:27
Mercedes will be half a second faster than Ferrari here. Total Domination.

Lewis
Bottas
Vestappen
Vettel
Ricc
3 tenths, but yeah, probably comfortable.
Based on Baku S2 times I can assure you that Ferrari have mega downforce in their car. so exclude Mercedes will dominate on this track where downforce and traction are very important.
You have no means of validating that claim.

Then again, neither have I. Best we wait and see then.

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johnny vee
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Joined: 05 Apr 2018, 10:03

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Manoah2u wrote:
08 May 2018, 18:59
Williams is virtually history. If Martini would have stayed, it would have been different, but that's not the case and that's a big sponsor gap they are not going to fill.
Dady Stroll has been pouring in millions to no avail. They hired Paddy Lowe with the idea it would bring them a competitive car again, but severely overestimated what he can do in such short timespan - nobody can, not even newey. Meanwhile, Lowe is not cheap, so more money 'disappears'. Stroll isn't that big of a deal, he's not bad at all, but despite some lucky and some hopeful performances last year, he isn't any better than the likes of Ericsson for example - not a star driver that can squeeze the most out of the car. They now have resorted to full paydriver lineup to pay the bills, and have Kubica for input and experience to atleast have some intelligence in the cars. They had to lay off Massa, so more loss of knowledge and intelligence.
Their situation now is grim; for years they have been dangling about, with a suprise jump in 2014 thanks to the Mercedes engine, Bottas, and surely Toto's (indirect) involvement through Susie and Bottas and Martini's money, paired to Massa's experience. Unfortunately, it's still ran by the same incompetence (yes, i'm talking Claire here) and meanwhile, Renault and especially Ferrari have gigantically improved their engines AND likewise other teams so their initial 'benefit' has disappeared like snow in the sun.
And on top of that, they already have been losing quite some sponsors, are losing more, and also are losing Martini after this season.
both drivers are absolutely crap and the competition is ferocious.

Something seriously need to happen there. If not, they're going to fumble.

If they're smart, they'll accept being a Mercedes B-team for a few years so they can get things sorted out again. Live on that, ditch crap drivers, get good Merc drivers (like Ocon), and restructure and abandon the failing concept they've been persuing for a while now. IF for some reason Mercedes' decides to pull the plug from the F1 main team (AMG), then they're in the hot seat for becoming essentially the 'works' team - like Mclaren once was.

Or, start talking to Honda.

Either way, Spain is not going to be any good for them. The other teams are in much better positions and there is not going to be such spectacular circumstances as in Baku. Not to mention Sirotkin didn't even last a lap there. He's dead last in the standings. Atleast stroll has learned to take less risks and drive more carefully and that has brought him points in Baku - even though he still lucked in hugely due to the chaotic race.

Grosjean's dumbass crash, Max and Danny's clash, Niko's dumbass crash, and Bottas' total non-luck and all the safety car situations provided a platform for points. In all reality, 15th would have been the right finish position.

I don't see how they're going to improve or overcome the issues this year - whilst the competition improves and invests hugely too, whilst they simply can't.

for 2019 they're going to have to run more or less this years car the way this is going - so only worse.

anything they do now is simply to get attention in some session in the hopes they atleast get some viewtime and some talk. it's hardly going to matter which tires they'll run during the race imho. they're not going to be able to be competitive. they'd be better off in tuning things down and saving parts, wings, and engine mileage, and save it for potential chaotic quallys and races. Monaco for example, if they can qualify in a good position there, knowing overtaking is really hard there, virtually impossible, they'll need to use all they have for strategy and power, and hope/expect people in front (max, danny, vettel, kimi, ocon, perez) to make contact/crash and benefit from that.

totally outside of williams though - i hope Sainz or Alonso wins.
Super post! I agree 100%
"Because you didn't come here to make the choice, you've already made it. You're here to try to understand why you made it. I thought you'd have figured that out by now." The Oracle, Matrix Reloaded

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PlatinumZealot
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Joined: 12 Jun 2008, 03:45

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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gargour87 wrote:
09 May 2018, 07:20
Fulcrum wrote:
09 May 2018, 06:54
PlatinumZealot wrote:
09 May 2018, 04:27
Mercedes will be half a second faster than Ferrari here. Total Domination.

Lewis
Bottas
Vestappen
Vettel
Ricc
3 tenths, but yeah, probably comfortable.
Based on Baku S2 times I can assure you that Ferrari have mega downforce in their car. so exclude Mercedes will dominate on this track where downforce and traction are very important.
Not everything is as it seems from the outside. It was reported that the Mercrdes was acting like its old Diva self again, their tyre temperatures were unmanagable. So since that is a big factor it's clear that the Mercedes was not showing its true pace in Baku. We know it will show its true pace in Barcelona because they have done so much kilometers there pretty much all the teams know how to turn on the tyres at that track.
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Manoah2u wrote:
08 May 2018, 18:59
Williams...
I dunno. I rate Paddy Lowe very highly and I foolishly believe that the underlying car is decent and that the drivers are slowing it down big time. He has skin the game now, remember he is not paid like a typical employee as he owns part of Williams. The good thing is that we have a technical executive who has been involved with quite a few championship contending cars over the decades that knows what it takes to put a good team together. He had a hand in the dominant Williamses, he lead design of "good" McLarens against Tim Goss and he held it down at Mercedes quite well. Maybe it is just me but I actually saw a bit of shakiness in car setup over Mercedes once he retuned to Williams. Yeah the williams set up is sh*tty now but... As i say it just a transisition period with the crappy drivers and i think that the car will come good this year though we may not even detect it sadly. Just minus one second to whatver Stroll is doing.
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Bisonas
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Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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gargour87 wrote:
09 May 2018, 07:20
Fulcrum wrote:
09 May 2018, 06:54
PlatinumZealot wrote:
09 May 2018, 04:27
Mercedes will be half a second faster than Ferrari here. Total Domination.

Lewis
Bottas
Vestappen
Vettel
Ricc
3 tenths, but yeah, probably comfortable.
Based on Baku S2 times I can assure you that Ferrari have mega downforce in their car. so exclude Mercedes will dominate on this track where downforce and traction are very important.
This is actually the first truly high downforce track of the season. So, how much downforce they had on Baku S2 IMO is irrelevant because they wheren't running a true high downforce setup.
Now everybody will test and evaluate their truly high downforce setups and their high downforce wings .
Going for a longer wheelbase this year isn't going to help them either.
Mercedes has much more experience on the longer wheelbase - high downforce combination and knows the track too well in order to mess up the setup.
As others have said, i too believe Mercedes will be clearly ahead in Barcelona.
If by any chance Ferrari is clearly ahead in Barcelona, I can go as far by saying Vettel has 80% chances of winning the championship this year.

daniellammers
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Joined: 17 Dec 2016, 14:22

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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Does Red Bull have any chance of pole position?
You won't catch me driving a race car that I have built.

- Colin Chapman

Manoah2u
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Joined: 24 Feb 2013, 14:07

Re: 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

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I'm not saying Paddy is not to be rated well. I'm saying, the team overrates what he is humanely able to do with what is given to him.
Designing and developing a car takes quite some time. It's not something done just over the coarse of a year. It takes years. And on top of that,
a really lot of money. And then there are the 'means' in the sense what tools is paddy able to use. Not the least wind tunnels, knowledge of the team itself,
etc. It's not like Williams is a blind team, but they have been persuing a certain direction and are leaking money fast. that will have effect on resources.

If the best topchef in the world is handed to him nothing but a camping stove, some eggs, and bacon that's overtime, the meal is gonna be bland at best,
despite the very same person when stepping in a decent kitchen and given the budget to catch some quality ingredients will bring out some crazy serious good food.

And that's exactly the thing - Lowe is a pretty good chef, but at williams, is given a camping set to cook with, and since Williams has little budget, he's given some leftover stuff,
and being told he's gonna have to do with less next year as there will be less money.
And as for those stroll millions poured in; yeah, that money isn't properluy used for the cooking equipment or ingredients, that money went out to buy the entire campsite,
and pay off all debts of the previous years and then get his son the best spot at the camping. in the end, they still have that crappy, used, rusty camping equipment to cook with.

and as for spain - the competition already has complete boretti kitchens, topchefs, and invested in the kitchen instead of lawnmowers, and will bring even better meals.
meanwhile, williams can't. they're broke.

which again brings me to paddy; as good as he is, he can't do what he should/wants.
williams thinks just hiring him would be enough, just like using maldonado mone and stroll money works.

they're blind as a bat obviously because maldonado's money didn't get them anywhere, worse even.
and now they're making the same mistakes again.

more even which is embarassing af, is claire williams hypocrisy. sickening even.
confronted and compared with the 'demise' of Tyrell, specifically that at certain pont Tyrell (had) to hire paydrivers (like Ricardo Rosset)
she got annoyed and states that if people think they don't have a plan, "over her dead body" they'll end up like tyrrell.

which is really facepalm nonsense as williams already HAD paydrivers in the past (again, friggin Crashtor Maldonado), HAVE paydrivers now,
two of them; Sirotkin AND Stroll - and are in dire financial circumstances.
on top of that, what actually happened to Tyrrell? ah, they turned into BAR, which had some success, turned into Honda, which had some 'success',
and then became Brawn, which had gigantic success (WCC and WDC), then became Mercedes AMG which has mega-gigantic success.
In all fairness, AMG Mercedes is the 'ghost' of Tyrrell if you'd like to look at it like that.

It only further proves Claire's total incompetence and living on an entire different planet, really. Not unlike Kaltenborn with Sauber.
Funny even, that both Williams and both Sauber had BMW. funny, that both Sauber as Williams team prinicpals got female leads at certain points.
both went down pretty hard after that. Both teams, when choosing quality drivers over paydrivers had much better results (think Kobayashi and Perez, think Massa, Bottas).
both then went down again and resorted to rich investors which took an investment in the team; Longbow (ericsson!), Stroll (Lance Stroll!).

So what is there to happen to claire? well, to be really honest - Kaltenborn didn't want to go with what longbow wanted, and got sacked. Now, Sauber is Alfa Romeo Sauber and are in a much better position. So Claire might actually and suddenly decide to 'step aside' to focus on 'her family' (yeah right) after Stroll invests some more with Paddy lowe, and then not much later Williams becomes Mercedes' B-team and suddenly is in better shape.

Anyway.
Again, i hope for a good Alonso and Sainz result. a win even.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"

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