2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

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Restomaniac
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 Septembe

Post by Restomaniac » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:15 am

PlatinumZealot wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:05 am
Restomaniac wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:11 pm
Hamilton now has one DNF and two 2nd places in his pocket with just 6 races to go.
Vettel just HAS to win this.
I initially thought you were checking the odds of a Vettel DNF there. Seems you werent. But if we do look at it, Hamilton already took his DNF but Vettel's own is way overdue.

There is a 16% chance he will. Very few drivers do a full season without one!
I was just stating the facts. Vettel realistically has win or at least score a fair few more points than Hamilton Any points dropped by him (or not eating well into Hamilton’s lead) from now on just makes that mountain all the higher.
Like I say a Hamilton DNF (-25) and two 2nds (-14) in the next 3 races AND even if Vettel is perfect then Hamilton is STILL in front by a point.
In fact if Hamilton could only get 2nd places from now to the end of the season then Vettel still only sneaks it by 2 points even if he wins every damn race!

SiLo
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by SiLo » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:22 am

I reckon Ham will be on it again. It's like he knows when to apply the pressure and the pressure will REALLY be on Vettel this weekend.
Felipe Baby!

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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by NathanOlder » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:24 am

TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:28 am

Every race the stats start anew, so Vettel and Hamilton both have the same chance. Will Mercedes focus early in the season knowing that longevity of the PU would be key pay dividends now is the question.
Your right, but that would mean the "luck evens itself out over a season" is 100% rubbish :roll:

There HAS to be more chance of Vettel's car breaking than Hamilton's , it's the law of averages!
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F1NAC
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by F1NAC » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:27 am

NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:24 am
TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:28 am

Every race the stats start anew, so Vettel and Hamilton both have the same chance. Will Mercedes focus early in the season knowing that longevity of the PU would be key pay dividends now is the question.
Your right, but that would mean the "luck evens itself out over a season" is 100% rubbish :roll:

There HAS to be more chance of Vettel's car breaking than Hamilton's , it's the law of averages!
Did you forget that 33 run without DNF from hamilton?

designf1
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by designf1 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:27 am


Phil
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Phil » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm

NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:24 am
TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:28 am

Every race the stats start anew, so Vettel and Hamilton both have the same chance. Will Mercedes focus early in the season knowing that longevity of the PU would be key pay dividends now is the question.
Your right, but that would mean the "luck evens itself out over a season" is 100% rubbish :roll:

There HAS to be more chance of Vettel's car breaking than Hamilton's , it's the law of averages!
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

NathanOlder
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by NathanOlder » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:24 am
TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:28 am

Every race the stats start anew, so Vettel and Hamilton both have the same chance. Will Mercedes focus early in the season knowing that longevity of the PU would be key pay dividends now is the question.
Your right, but that would mean the "luck evens itself out over a season" is 100% rubbish :roll:

There HAS to be more chance of Vettel's car breaking than Hamilton's , it's the law of averages!
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
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Jolle
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Jolle » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:44 pm

NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:24 am


Your right, but that would mean the "luck evens itself out over a season" is 100% rubbish :roll:

There HAS to be more chance of Vettel's car breaking than Hamilton's , it's the law of averages!
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
If you look at the problem mathematically, and you take a period of 50 races for instance, Hamilton broke down twice, which makes his chance of retirement 4% per race. Vettel broke down once, which makes his chance per race of a DNF because of a mechanical reason 2%.

And if you look at collisions and self inflicted harm, Vettel crashed out 4 times during those races giving him an 8% chance of a DNF per race and Hamilton none (his last DNF because of a non car failure was more then 50 races ago)

This makes a DNF for Vettel a chance of 10% per race and Hamiltons chance 4%. Combining all those and the number or races gives Vettel a chance for a DNF of 60% and Hamilton of 24%

For wins its even simpler. Hamilton won around 50% of the last 50 races so he should, Statistically win 3 of the last 6. Vettel won around 20% but had a stronger last 50% of those races so should win 2 and then the last one will go to a RedBull.

Fulcrum
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Fulcrum » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:00 pm

Jolle wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:44 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm


Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
If you look at the problem mathematically, and you take a period of 50 races for instance, Hamilton broke down twice, which makes his chance of retirement 4% per race. Vettel broke down once, which makes his chance per race of a DNF because of a mechanical reason 2%.

And if you look at collisions and self inflicted harm, Vettel crashed out 4 times during those races giving him an 8% chance of a DNF per race and Hamilton none (his last DNF because of a non car failure was more then 50 races ago)

This makes a DNF for Vettel a chance of 10% per race and Hamiltons chance 4%. Combining all those and the number or races gives Vettel a chance for a DNF of 60% and Hamilton of 24%
Assuming a binomial distribution of retirements, their respective chances of X DNFs would be as follows:

0 - Vettel at 53.14% - Hamilton at 78.28%
1 - Vettel at 35.43% - Hamilton at 19.57%
2 - Vettel at 9.84% - Hamilton at 2.04%
3+ - Vettel at 1.59% - Hamilton at 0.12%

Vettel's expected number of DNFs is 0.6, Hamilton's being 0.24. It is, however, incorrect to state that Vettel's chance of a DNF during the last 6 races is 60% - it's actually 46.86% using your DNF rate, or 1 - 0.5314; Hamilton's is 21.72%, or 1 - 0.7828.

Jolle
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Jolle » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:22 pm

Fulcrum wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:00 pm
Jolle wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:44 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm


Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
If you look at the problem mathematically, and you take a period of 50 races for instance, Hamilton broke down twice, which makes his chance of retirement 4% per race. Vettel broke down once, which makes his chance per race of a DNF because of a mechanical reason 2%.

And if you look at collisions and self inflicted harm, Vettel crashed out 4 times during those races giving him an 8% chance of a DNF per race and Hamilton none (his last DNF because of a non car failure was more then 50 races ago)

This makes a DNF for Vettel a chance of 10% per race and Hamiltons chance 4%. Combining all those and the number or races gives Vettel a chance for a DNF of 60% and Hamilton of 24%
Assuming a binomial distribution of retirements, their respective chances of X DNFs would be as follows:

0 - Vettel at 53.14% - Hamilton at 78.28%
1 - Vettel at 35.43% - Hamilton at 19.57%
2 - Vettel at 9.84% - Hamilton at 2.04%
3+ - Vettel at 1.59% - Hamilton at 0.12%

Vettel's expected number of DNFs is 0.6, Hamilton's being 0.24. It is, however, incorrect to state that Vettel's chance of a DNF during the last 6 races is 60% - it's actually 46.86% using your DNF rate, or 1 - 0.5314; Hamilton's is 21.72%, or 1 - 0.7828.
That is above my statistic knowledge indeed. Either way, it doesn't look good for Vettel but luckily, F1 is more then statistics :D

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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by F1NAC » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:43 pm

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TAG
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by TAG » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:48 pm

NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
I'd rather he not break down, I'd rather Seb be at his most competitive with the entire might of Ferrari behind him. Just as he's been all year. The h8rz gonna hate regardless, best not to give away excuses.

Remember ion 2016, Rosberg won due to his consistent driving not because of Hamilton's mechanical issues.

Jeebus, are we really talking about this championship as if it's a done deal? It's far from over, and more than likely won't be clinched until Brazil.
Countdown to 91: 12 more victories ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Jolle
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Jolle » Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:04 pm

TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:48 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
I'd rather he not break down, I'd rather Seb be at his most competitive with the entire might of Ferrari behind him. Just as he's been all year. The h8rz gonna hate regardless, best not to give away excuses.

Remember ion 2016, Rosberg won due to his consistent driving not because of Hamilton's mechanical issues.

Jeebus, are we really talking about this championship as if it's a done deal? It's far from over, and more than likely won't be clinched until Brazil.
Well, even during Hamilton's darkest periods (since he turbo's) with crashes and DNF's, cooking H-units, he never lost 40 points to anyone in 6 races. Vettel needs something special and much help.

djones
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by djones » Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:15 pm

TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:48 pm

Remember ion 2016, Rosberg won due to his consistent driving not because of Hamilton's mechanical issues.
If Hamilton's engine did not blow up at the back end of the season he would have won the championship. So no matter which way you cut it, the simple fact is that single mechanical issue defined his loss of the WDC.

Restomaniac
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Restomaniac » Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:35 pm

TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:48 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Oh I know. I've always said Seb gets more than his fair share of luck and good fortune. But I get struck down by the 'it averages itself out over a season' brigade.

So I am using that theory to jinx Seb and make him break down in the next 6 races. If I'm right, then Vettel will score no points at some point, if I'm wrong, we can put the whole 'evens itself out' rubbish to bed. Either way I'm happy :mrgreen:
I'd rather he not break down, I'd rather Seb be at his most competitive with the entire might of Ferrari behind him. Just as he's been all year. The h8rz gonna hate regardless, best not to give away excuses.

Remember ion 2016, Rosberg won due to his consistent driving not because of Hamilton's mechanical issues.

Jeebus, are we really talking about this championship as if it's a done deal? It's far from over, and more than likely won't be clinched until Brazil.
A done deal? Nope.

Meaning that Vettel probably needs to win every race against one of the best drivers in history apart from a huge slice of luck? Indeed.

Like I say Hamilton can happily pick up 2nd places an just say to Vettel ‘go on then!’ However this is Lewis Hamilton we are talking about a guy who loves some of the tracks coming up. So are we really suggesting he won’t win from now till the end of the season? Which would just make that mountain all the higher.

Can Vettel win? Yes.
Does he need one hell of a swing in his favour for that to happen? Yes.