One thing I’d add is that Ferrari also made a mistake in not anticipating Bottas’ stop and pitting first.
It was clear that Bottas in particular was struggling a couple of laps before he pitted and Vettel had closed the gap to both Mercedes - I think it was something like 3.9 secs to Bottas.
If they’d pitted at that point, Mercedes would have to have made the choice: pit Lewis to try and maintain championship position - which is probably what they would have done but we now know wouldn’t have worked (albeit Seb might still have messed up and let him back through...) - or pit Bottas to ensure they protected the lead but equally ensure Lewis was doomed to be passed.
Given I think they would have prioritised Lewis and that strategy would have failed, it’s very likely Seb would have jumped both cars - and at the very least it would have been maximum pressure on Mercedes. They were most likely haunted by Singapore and worried about being held up by Max, but they needn’t have been given his pace on softs was better than the leaders’ on US’s at that point.
Easy to say now (and obviously totally academic) of course, but I swear I was screaming at the tv at the time saying the same thing