2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

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Fulcrum
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Fulcrum » Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:53 pm

Jolle wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:22 pm
Fulcrum wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:00 pm
Jolle wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:44 pm


If you look at the problem mathematically, and you take a period of 50 races for instance, Hamilton broke down twice, which makes his chance of retirement 4% per race. Vettel broke down once, which makes his chance per race of a DNF because of a mechanical reason 2%.

And if you look at collisions and self inflicted harm, Vettel crashed out 4 times during those races giving him an 8% chance of a DNF per race and Hamilton none (his last DNF because of a non car failure was more then 50 races ago)

This makes a DNF for Vettel a chance of 10% per race and Hamiltons chance 4%. Combining all those and the number or races gives Vettel a chance for a DNF of 60% and Hamilton of 24%
Assuming a binomial distribution of retirements, their respective chances of X DNFs would be as follows:

0 - Vettel at 53.14% - Hamilton at 78.28%
1 - Vettel at 35.43% - Hamilton at 19.57%
2 - Vettel at 9.84% - Hamilton at 2.04%
3+ - Vettel at 1.59% - Hamilton at 0.12%

Vettel's expected number of DNFs is 0.6, Hamilton's being 0.24. It is, however, incorrect to state that Vettel's chance of a DNF during the last 6 races is 60% - it's actually 46.86% using your DNF rate, or 1 - 0.5314; Hamilton's is 21.72%, or 1 - 0.7828.
That is above my statistic knowledge indeed. Either way, it doesn't look good for Vettel but luckily, F1 is more then statistics :D
Vettel will need some luck, I'm pretty sure of that.

atanatizante
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by atanatizante » Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:58 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm
NathanOlder wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:24 am
TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:28 am

Every race the stats start anew, so Vettel and Hamilton both have the same chance. Will Mercedes focus early in the season knowing that longevity of the PU would be key pay dividends now is the question.
Your right, but that would mean the "luck evens itself out over a season" is 100% rubbish :roll:

There HAS to be more chance of Vettel's car breaking than Hamilton's , it's the law of averages!
Explain Kimi then. The law of averages isnt a “law” anyway.
Regarding this matter, there are 6 remaining races which only 5 of them could be used for the 3rd spec PU, bearing in mind at Spa and Monza both teams were using them and presumably at Singapore the 2nd spec one ...
Now the interesting question, from my point of view, is which race will remain to be done on 2nd spec coz I don`t think they`ll stretch the 3rd spec for 8 races, don`t you think?
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digitalrurouni
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by digitalrurouni » Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:59 pm

I hope no one breaks down. I hope they fight like crazy. Though with the lead Ham has got he could afford to take it easy. Vettel can't. He needs to step it up. Let the best driver win. Can't say best car cause to me the Ferrari was better but now it seems the Merc has leapfrogged it but I could be wrong. Cause Valtteri doesn't seem to be as good with it. So makes me think Lewis is adding that tiny bit of specialness to get the most out of the car.

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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by atanatizante » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:02 pm

And for this race, based on the massive negative feedback for the new F1 app they brought back the old timing style back! This time around is a dedicated app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta ... 3Q,1IBRG,1
"I don`t have all the answers. Try Google!"
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NathanOlder
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by NathanOlder » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:14 pm

atanatizante wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:02 pm
And for this race, based on the massive negative feedback for the new F1 app they brought back the old timing style back! This time around is a dedicated app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta ... 3Q,1IBRG,1
Thank F$$k for that! My phone updated to the new one before the last race, It was Hell!! Luckily I had my 10" Samsung Tablet that is old and wasn't compatible with the new version of the app so it didn't update. I even uninstalled it from my phone in anger :x

At least this means I can get the timing on my phone at the same time. I usually have track map on my phone, and timing page on my tablet with the TV on which I don't look at much as I'm watching sector times :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by TAG » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:43 pm

djones wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:15 pm
TAG wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:48 pm

Remember ion 2016, Rosberg won due to his consistent driving not because of Hamilton's mechanical issues.
If Hamilton's engine did not blow up at the back end of the season he would have won the championship. So no matter which way you cut it, the simple fact is that single mechanical issue defined his loss of the WDC.
This was tongue in cheek, didn't come off at obvious as I thought it would have. :mrgreen:
Countdown to 91: 10 more victories ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by turbof1 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:52 pm

What is the mileage on the PUs, do we have any info on that? Rumors go that Ferrari has a spec 4 PU, but introducing it will cause penalties.
#AeroFrodo

Phil
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Phil » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:17 pm

If they'd take any penalties, they can pretty much kiss the WDC good bye, as that will definitely mean they will lose more points to Hamilton. With the gap already being at 40 with 6 races remaining, another increase of that gap with one less race remaining means that they [Vettel] can no longer win the WDC completely unaided (unless Hamilton/Mercedes make a mistake).

I.e. assuming the gap remains at 40 post Socchi but with 5 races remaining, means that Vettel would have to, on average, decrease the gap by at least 8 points with every race remaining. In other words, winning every race with Lewis coming 2nd would no longer be enough. If the point gap increases to 51 points with 5 races remaining, Hamilton could afford to come 3rd to every win.

So taking a new engine would be indeed very risky. What I could see them do, is perhaps sacrifice Kimi to use the spec4 engine (if it indeed exists and offers a substantial advantage) and use him to help Vettel?
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by turbof1 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:28 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:17 pm
If they'd take any penalties, they can pretty much kiss the WDC good bye, as that will definitely mean they will lose more points to Hamilton. With the gap already being at 40 with 6 races remaining, another increase of that gap with one less race remaining means that they [Vettel] can no longer win the WDC completely unaided (unless Hamilton/Mercedes make a mistake).

I.e. assuming the gap remains at 40 post Socchi but with 5 races remaining, means that Vettel would have to, on average, decrease the gap by at least 8 points with every race remaining. In other words, winning every race with Lewis coming 2nd would no longer be enough. If the point gap increases to 51 points with 5 races remaining, Hamilton could afford to come 3rd to every win.

So taking a new engine would be indeed very risky. What I could see them do, is perhaps sacrifice Kimi to use the spec4 engine (if it indeed exists and offers a substantial advantage) and use him to help Vettel?
I was thinking around the same lines, giving Kimi that engine. Also, the mileage on the current PUs count as well.

Also, should anything hamper Vettel's qualifying, they will introduce a new PU for him. If anything, it is still a Ferrari. It's always possible that Vettel can finish back on the podium and that would probably be as equally good if he qualifies a few places behind Hamilton in the first place. I think any stroke of bad luck for Vettel will net him a new PU and a beefy motivational speech from Arrivabene to work himself back up the field.
#AeroFrodo

dans79
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by dans79 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:52 pm

turbof1 wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:28 pm
I think any stroke of bad luck for Vettel will net him a new PU and a beefy motivational speech from Arrivabene to work himself back up the field.
That assumes they are on good terms. Lately it seems like their is some underlying tension between Vettel and the team in general.

ThumbsUp
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by ThumbsUp » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:17 pm

atanatizante wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:02 pm
And for this race, based on the massive negative feedback for the new F1 app they brought back the old timing style back! This time around is a dedicated app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta ... 3Q,1IBRG,1
Thanks for the tip, I can say they also rolled out an ‘old’ version for iOS, just search in the App Store for ‘F1 live timing’

F1NAC
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by F1NAC » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:25 pm

Imagine that Vet and Ham are tied in championship and are starting at the back of the field in Abu Dhabi. That would be mental

Roxi
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by Roxi » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:46 pm

F1NAC wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:25 pm
Imagine that Vet and Ham are tied in championship and are starting at the back of the field in Abu Dhabi. That would be mental
Now that would be a race worth watching! ha-. jk

NathanOlder
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by NathanOlder » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:45 pm

It would but Sauber and Haas would be under strict orders and probably ruin the show.
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Re: 2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

Post by F1Krof » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:06 pm

With those long straights, I believe it's Ferrari's race to lose.

Also, judging from the past, I think starting from the second row is actually more advantageous than starting from the pole. Since it's really the best place to overtake without DRS and heavy fuel. After 10 laps or so, at this track is very hard to overtake.
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