2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wass85
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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siskue2005 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:58 pm
Wass85 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:45 pm
siskue2005 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:39 pm

The problem is as there are no one else challenging Mercedes, everyone wants Lewis' teammate to be as fast and beating him every now and then (just like Nico was doing in 2014 to 2016)
He is just as fast in qualifying, there's nothing really in it at all.

The races are really governed by who leads going in to the first corner, Bottas showed he can fend Hamilton off in Austria.

Had he pipped Hamilton on Saturday chances are he would have won the race.
But he is not as fast as Lewis on race days, it is plain and sky that he is no where as fast in race

In Austria Lewis caught upto him so fast, Styrian GP nowhere near, Hungary he was no match, Silverstone he couldnt challenge (Lewis was just holding enough gap to him), 70th GP they both were somewhat equal, Spain again he was no where near Lewis.

As the points are given out on Sunday there is no way to challenge Lewis if you are slow in the race.

And he is not able to beat lewis is qualifying , granted he is closer in times during saturday, but being close doesnot equate to beating him, without beating him in saturday there is no chance at all.

But with Nico, he used to beat Lewis very much in saturday and although he is not as fast in race, Nico was not as bad as Bottas in races
I actually think Bottas had more pace at the 70th GP, he was less than 2 secs behind for the majority of the race.

Had he had clear air I think he would have been quicker and looked after the tyres better, let's not forget Hamilton's tyre gave up the ghost shortly after Bottas and he was in clean air all race.

Again how can you gauge if Hamilton had much better pace in Spain as he was in clean air all race, Bottas was yet again stuck behind Verstappen.

Wynters
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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I put this in the RBR thread but it's probably useful here too.

Barcelona. A track easier to win from Pole on than Monaco (or so David Croft said...)

Lap 1, Hamilton pulls 1.5 seconds on Verstappen who has had a great start, driving around the outside of Bottas in turn 1 with cool professionalism. I noted that he didn't squeeze Bottas, which he may have done a couple of years ago (and, with Stroll unseen on Bottas' inside, could've been disastrous).

Verstappen holds Hamilton (or vice-versa) at 1.5 seconds (Hamilton has a slow lap 3 but, otherwise, slowly increases his pace in line with fuel burn off). Bottas finally clears Stroll on Lap 5, and closes the gap to Verstappen within two laps. Everyone then settles down into 'Grandma' mode. I think these 5 laps are crucial. DAS and their PU give Mercedes a big advantage in pace in the opening lap (as I've highlighted before) and Bottas spends that lap (and four more) behind a car with a comparable straight line speed. I'm not sure he get's Verstappen at the end of Lap 1, but I think it's his best chance without having to rely on strategy.

Until Lap 10. To quote Brundle, this is when Hamilton pulls the pin with a 1:23.618, 7/10ths faster than his previous pace. Verstappen and Bottas try to respond, but Hamilton ups the pace by a further 4/10ths the next lap, 1:23.238. Verstappen can only manage a 1:23.473. Hamilton's next four laps average 1:23.032. Verstappen 1:23.549. And, to make it worse, Verstappen's tyres are beginning to go away from him. Lap 15 is a 1:23.759 to Hamilton's 1.23.095. Verstappen's times begin to fall away, rising into the mid 1:24s until he pits at the end of lap 21. Verstappen's last lap before pitting is a 1:24.579, Hamilton, same lap, a 1:23.394.

Verstappen had been asking the team to pit him earlier but, with the delta needed to overtake in Barcelona so brutal, the team felt they needed to keep him out until he cleared the Racing Points. I agree with them. The Racing Points are also what stop Bottas undercutting Verstappen. He'd closed up to under 2 seconds as Verstappen struggled on the last of this tyre life but, if he'd pitted, he would have come out behind Stroll and, possibly, Perez.

RBR put in a typically outstanding pitstop and Verstappen is clear of traffic. Bottas, in clear air now, stays out for two laps to try and start building an offset to Verstappen but his lap times of c.1:24:4s and his almost identical inlap suggest he had nothing in reserve. Hamilton pits the same lap in a Mercedes 'double-stack', the rear left costing him 2 seconds. However, his two extra laps over Verstappen were c.1:23.5s and his in lap was over a second faster.

Whatever issues Mercedes had in Silverstone 2 did not apply here. In the last four laps of their stints, Hamilton was over three seconds faster than Verstappen, and went nearly 10% further.

Stint 1 summary:-
Hamilton: 23 laps at 1:23.755 (1:23.995)
Verstappen: 21 laps at 1:24.075 (1:24.426)
Bottas: 23 laps at 1:24.098 (1:24.507)
This excludes the first lap and inlap. The time in brackets includes them, as neither Verstappen nor Hamilton were strongly hindered in those laps. This really hammers home just how much the Red Bull was struggling.

Worth noting that Verstappen understandably pushed on his out lap (as did Bottas), Hamilton was much more relaxed (c. a second slower)

Red Bull had pitted Albon at the end of lap 17 and he came about behind Esteban Ocon (who was putting in a notably punchy performance, pretty much the only person to get overtakes done during his first stint (of a one-stopper, no less)). Albon had been falling way from Perez but, although his tyres were clearly suffering, Ocon was at the tail end of the Magnusson train and Albon only needed to find three seconds to come out in front of all of them and into five seconds of clear air behind Ricciardo. So, why pit him early and why put him on the Hard? My initial thought was that this was done to provide sufficient time to get tyre information to inform Verstappen's strategy. However, looking at Albon's times vs K-Mag's...Albon was lapping faster but the delta was falling. Albon would've needed six more laps, at least, to get in front of K-Mag and that would mean running until lap 23 (the lap the Mercedes pitted) without the delta falling off even further. That doesn't look feasible. At which point, if Albon is screwed anyway, you may as well get something useful out of him. Red Bull makes the best of a bad job here. What do they learn? That the Hard tyre sucks.

Stint 2 for the leaders. Verstappen will do 20 laps, Bottas 25 and Hamilton 27.

Bottas comes out 4 seconds behind Verstappen but closes to 1.8 within two laps. Two laps later, he is at 1.6 seconds. Verstappen reacts calmly. He's been holding a steady pace (slowly improving as fuel burns off) and this doesn't alter as Bottas closes. After his two laps of pushing to avoid a potential overcut, he does five laps at an average of 1:23.514. Bottas gets to 1.6 and Verstappen's next 5 laps are an average of 1:23.259, during which Bottas can't stay in his dirty air and falls back to 2.2 seconds behind. It's possible that lapping Latifi also played a part but I can't find any footage to prove/disprove it. For comparison, Bottas' equivalent pair of 5 laps are an average of 1:22.976 to close the gap and 1:23.515 as he drifts back.

Meanwhile, Verstappen has taken advantage of Mercedes' fumbled pitstops (not least the 2+ seconds Hamilton lost) and Hamilton's slow outlap and is closing. By the end of the 6th lap of Hamilton's stint, what had been a 7+ second gap before the pitstops is now a sub-3.5 second gap, as Verstappen steadily closed him down. However, where Hamilton's pace slowly increases as his fuel burns off, Verstappen can't quite match it and, from lap 30, begins to slowly fall away. A quick punch of the throttle on lap 34 sees Hamilton suddenly gain 5/10ths. The next lap, Verstappen can only find 2/10ths in reply and doing that finishes his tyres. Having averaged 1:23.267 over the previous ten laps and having just put in a 1:22.896, Verstappen's next lap is a 1:23.548 and his next five laps (at which point he pits) are a 1:23.587 average.

This sees Verstappen begin to fall back into Bottas' hands. On lap 38, Bottas takes advantage of a particularly slow Verstappen lap to close up. Verstappen takes another lap before he responds (tyre temp troubles?) but Bottas is now only 1.44 behind. Verstappen pushes to a 1:23.096, opening the gap to 1.6, then pits at the end of the next lap to avoid any chance of an undercut. It gives me an average stint time (excluding in/out laps) of 1:23.515 over 20 laps.

In clean air once more, Bottas shows his pace in hand. Where he had been matching Verstappen's 1:23.4s over the last few laps, he bangs in a pacey 1:21.857. Verstappen responds with a good outlap (combined with another great pitstop) and keeps his foot down as Bottas spends five laps in the 1:22.8s. It's enough to keep the Finn behind him and, when Bottas pits, he comes out seven seconds behind Verstappen.

Up front, Hamilton has been setting his own pace and, other than a lap being held up by Perez*, it's been uneventful. Scheduled to come in one lap after Bottas, he stays out so the team can change their strategy from doing the final lap on Softs to, instead, finishing the race on Mediums.

Stint 2 summary:-
Hamilton: 27 laps at 1:22.729 (1:23.443)
Verstappen: 20 laps at 1:23.376 (1:24.280)
Bottas: 25 laps at 1:23.091 (1:23.810)
The time in brackets includes in/outlaps but excludes time stationary for the first pitstop)

The final stints for Hamilton and Verstappen were on the Medium, Bottas had an ill-judged stint on the Softs. The race is done at this stage. Bottas will find no time on the Softs and will pit at the end of lap 64 so he can set the fastest lap on the last lap. Hamilton comes out from his last pit stop more than ten seconds clear of Verstappen and the gap only opens to the end.

I've not yet looked at Vettel's pace on the Softs but Bottas started this stint 7.1 seconds behind Verstappen (on 8 lap fresher tyres), and spent 14 laps closing up to 5.2 seconds. Over the same stint length vs Hamilton, who was comfortably cruising in the lead and on the 'slower' tyre, Bottas lost more than half-a-second a lap to his team mate.

Stint 3 summary:-
Hamilton: 16 laps at 1:20.979 (1:22.102)
Verstappen: 25 laps at 1:21.977 (1:22:681)
Bottas: 16 laps at 1:21.652 (1:23.080)
The time in brackets includes outlap and the last lap (inlap for Bottas) but excludes stationary time at the pitstops.

Not much to say about this GP, it was all over by Turn 2 (for the leaders, at least). The midfield battle was pretty interesting, mix of strategy and pace. Up front, Hamilton could go much faster, for much longer. His second stint, in particular, is impressive. On the main race tyre, the Mercedes was more than 8/10ths a lap faster and did 135% of the distance (although bear in mind that this performance gap is inflated due to lighter fuel impacting the last third of the stint). A comparison of the same laps (e.g. lap 25 vs lap 25 until lap 40 vs lap 40) gives us a pace difference of 1:23.028 vs 1.23.389, but that doesn't take into account the much high tyre management Hamilton needed to do. Frustratingly, we so rarely get to compare apples to apples in F1.

As always, feedback/corrections are very welcome and thank you for the kind words so far.

*Ironically, Kvyat's penalty was for holding up Verstappen. Both Perez and Kvyat were cited for ignoring blue flags from Turn 6 until Turn 1 on the next lap.

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siskue2005
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wass85 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:06 pm
I actually think Bottas had more pace at the 70th GP, he was less than 2 secs behind for the majority of the race.
You mean in British GP not the 70th anniv GP
& You do know that Lewis was just about maintaining his gap and didnt want pull away too much (this was easily verifiable) and IF Bottas had pace he should have got into Lewis's DRS zone at the least, but that never happened.
Q: Finally, the winning machine that is Lewis Hamilton. I’ve heard rumour that they are going to rename Silverstone to Hamitonstone. Man, you made it difficult there for yourself. Our hearts were in our mouths when we first Valtteri have that delamination and then yourself. Talk us through that last lap?
Lewis Hamilton: Up until that last lap everything was relatively smooth sailing. They tyres felt great. Valtteri was really pushing incredibly hard. I was doing some management of that tyre; he looked like he wasn’t doing any.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... 7F0Z1.html

Had he had clear air I think he would have been quicker and looked after the tyres better, let's not forget Hamilton's tyre gave up the ghost shortly after Bottas and he was in clean air all race.
IFs and BUTs is not how you beat your teammate, he should have been faster on saturday and should have had more pace to overtake Lewis or at the very least get into DRS zone (which he never ever managed to do).
Again how can you gauge if Hamilton had much better pace in Spain as he was in clean air all race, Bottas was yet again stuck behind Verstappen.
Again he should qualify better and should have good starts, no excuses there IF you want to beat Lewis and show your pace.

All these shows that Bottas dont have the pace to beat Lewis is Saturdays and Sundays
If he wants the championship then he should stop making excuses like dirty air and poor start etc.
He should beat Lewis on Saturdays and then put Lewis behind his dirty air
Otherwise he is just another Barichello

Wass85
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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siskue2005 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:20 am
Wass85 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:06 pm
I actually think Bottas had more pace at the 70th GP, he was less than 2 secs behind for the majority of the race.
You mean in British GP not the 70th anniv GP
& You do know that Lewis was just about maintaining his gap and didnt want pull away too much (this was easily verifiable) and IF Bottas had pace he should have got into Lewis's DRS zone at the least, but that never happened.
Q: Finally, the winning machine that is Lewis Hamilton. I’ve heard rumour that they are going to rename Silverstone to Hamitonstone. Man, you made it difficult there for yourself. Our hearts were in our mouths when we first Valtteri have that delamination and then yourself. Talk us through that last lap?
Lewis Hamilton: Up until that last lap everything was relatively smooth sailing. They tyres felt great. Valtteri was really pushing incredibly hard. I was doing some management of that tyre; he looked like he wasn’t doing any.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... 7F0Z1.html

Had he had clear air I think he would have been quicker and looked after the tyres better, let's not forget Hamilton's tyre gave up the ghost shortly after Bottas and he was in clean air all race.
IFs and BUTs is not how you beat your teammate, he should have been faster on saturday and should have had more pace to overtake Lewis or at the very least get into DRS zone (which he never ever managed to do).
Again how can you gauge if Hamilton had much better pace in Spain as he was in clean air all race, Bottas was yet again stuck behind Verstappen.
Again he should qualify better and should have good starts, no excuses there IF you want to beat Lewis and show your pace.

All these shows that Bottas dont have the pace to beat Lewis is Saturdays and Sundays
If he wants the championship then he should stop making excuses like dirty air and poor start etc.
He should beat Lewis on Saturdays and then put Lewis behind his dirty air
Otherwise he is just another Barichello
Do you recall the 70th GP? Bottas outperformed Hamilton all weekend but was unfortunate to end up with a dud strategy through no fault of his own.

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siskue2005
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:17 am

Do you recall the 70th GP? Bottas outperformed Hamilton all weekend but was unfortunate to end up with a dud strategy through no fault of his own.
Yes, i did say that they both were equal in 70th GP in my previous posts

The point i am trying to make is 2 out of 6 races is not enough to challenge Lewis for Championship (that is just 6-7 races in a 20 race championship). That is Barichello, David Coulthard, Mark Webber territory.

He needs to rise to Alonso/Lewis level or Nico/Lewis level to atleast have a chance

Until then people are going to criticize him, or want more competition or are going to call him out.

Wass85
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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siskue2005 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:33 am
Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:17 am

Do you recall the 70th GP? Bottas outperformed Hamilton all weekend but was unfortunate to end up with a dud strategy through no fault of his own.
Yes, i did say that they both were equal in 70th GP in my previous posts

The point i am trying to make is 2 out of 6 races is not enough to challenge Lewis for Championship (that is just 6-7 races in a 20 race championship). That is Barichello, David Coulthard, Mark Webber territory.

He needs to rise to Alonso/Lewis level or Nico/Lewis level to atleast have a chance

Until then people are going to criticize him, or want more competition or are going to call him out.
Oh without a doubt, we are talking about fractions though on a Saturday. They are one of the most closely matched drivers in qualifying this season.

Those small little details can mean the difference between a win and getting stuck in traffic, they are that evenly matched though that it could so easily be Bottas doing the controlling up front.

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siskue2005
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:41 am
siskue2005 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:33 am
Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:17 am

Do you recall the 70th GP? Bottas outperformed Hamilton all weekend but was unfortunate to end up with a dud strategy through no fault of his own.
Yes, i did say that they both were equal in 70th GP in my previous posts

The point i am trying to make is 2 out of 6 races is not enough to challenge Lewis for Championship (that is just 6-7 races in a 20 race championship). That is Barichello, David Coulthard, Mark Webber territory.

He needs to rise to Alonso/Lewis level or Nico/Lewis level to atleast have a chance

Until then people are going to criticize him, or want more competition or are going to call him out.
Oh without a doubt, we are talking about fractions though on a Saturday. They are one of the most closely matched drivers in qualifying this season.

Those small little details can mean the difference between a win and getting stuck in traffic, they are that evenly matched though that it could so easily be Bottas doing the controlling up front.
Really? are that THAT EVENLY MATCHED?? i have my doubts..he is only closely matched in very few circuits
and it is the brilliance of the driver to extract the final small fractions to get pole and win and championships.

in the last 3 years Bottas has shown flashes of brilliance only, or faster in his favorite circuits mostly
He is no where in other major circuits...there is no doubt this is the case with Bottas (we can easily prove it with stats from last 3 years)

He has been teammate to Lewis the same as Nico now, by this time he should have been a genuine championship contender for atleast one year like Nico was in 2014, 2016 at the very least.

But sadly he is not, and he is mostly in Barrichello, Mark Webber, David Coulthard level only

Wass85
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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siskue2005 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:03 am
Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:41 am
siskue2005 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:33 am


Yes, i did say that they both were equal in 70th GP in my previous posts

The point i am trying to make is 2 out of 6 races is not enough to challenge Lewis for Championship (that is just 6-7 races in a 20 race championship). That is Barichello, David Coulthard, Mark Webber territory.

He needs to rise to Alonso/Lewis level or Nico/Lewis level to atleast have a chance

Until then people are going to criticize him, or want more competition or are going to call him out.
Oh without a doubt, we are talking about fractions though on a Saturday. They are one of the most closely matched drivers in qualifying this season.

Those small little details can mean the difference between a win and getting stuck in traffic, they are that evenly matched though that it could so easily be Bottas doing the controlling up front.
Really? are that THAT EVENLY MATCHED?? i have my doubts..he is only closely matched in very few circuits
and it is the brilliance of the driver to extract the final small fractions to get pole and win and championships.

in the last 3 years Bottas has shown flashes of brilliance only, or faster in his favorite circuits mostly
He is no where in other major circuits...there is no doubt this is the case with Bottas (we can easily prove it with stats from last 3 years)

He has been teammate to Lewis the same as Nico now, by this time he should have been a genuine championship contender for atleast one year like Nico was in 2014, 2016 at the very least.

But sadly he is not, and he is mostly in Barrichello, Mark Webber, David Coulthard level only
Over the last 3 seasons he admittedly hasn't done enough to really challenge Hamilton.

Let's wait until this season finishes to make a proper assessment, I do feel though that performance wise he is as close as he's ever been to Lewis.

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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Bottas called with Rosberg on how to beat Hamilton. That's a move of desperation and panic, of somebody who has no ideas left anymore on how to personally beat him, so he seeks help as last straws. It is the sign of somebody who simply is not capable in any way on his own or naturally to beat his teammate. At best, Bottas gets some (perhaps even dirty) tips, but that's not on merit. Bottas never will beat Lewis. Bottas is 2nd range, and he always will be. He thinks he has the stuff, but he doesn't. He has been made to believe he is/has the stuff, but he hasn't. He's 3rd in the WDC with a dominant car, and half the season isn't even done. 2021 will be his last season with Mercedes.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:35 am
Bottas called with Rosberg on how to beat Hamilton. That's a move of desperation and panic, of somebody who has no ideas left anymore on how to personally beat him, so he seeks help as last straws. It is the sign of somebody who simply is not capable in any way on his own or naturally to beat his teammate. At best, Bottas gets some (perhaps even dirty) tips, but that's not on merit. Bottas never will beat Lewis. Bottas is 2nd range, and he always will be. He thinks he has the stuff, but he doesn't. He has been made to believe he is/has the stuff, but he hasn't. He's 3rd in the WDC with a dominant car, and half the season isn't even done. 2021 will be his last season with Mercedes.
I watched the Rosberg method of how to beat Lewis and did not like it. I hope Bottas is the same.

It included playing football against the side of his room, constantly grilling burgers outside his window (non vegi I assume) and other things I consider unfair. No wonder their friendship failed.
I am very much in favour of filtered water. Preferably passed through a brewery

Wass85
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:35 am
Bottas called with Rosberg on how to beat Hamilton. That's a move of desperation and panic, of somebody who has no ideas left anymore on how to personally beat him, so he seeks help as last straws. It is the sign of somebody who simply is not capable in any way on his own or naturally to beat his teammate. At best, Bottas gets some (perhaps even dirty) tips, but that's not on merit. Bottas never will beat Lewis. Bottas is 2nd range, and he always will be. He thinks he has the stuff, but he doesn't. He has been made to believe he is/has the stuff, but he hasn't. He's 3rd in the WDC with a dominant car, and half the season isn't even done. 2021 will be his last season with Mercedes.
Do you have a source for that?

If that is true that is really pathetic and if I was Lewis I wouldn't be so amicable towards him.

Anyway what did Rosberg actually do any different?

It was Hamilton and not Rosberg who botched his starts, it was also down to luck that he had mechanical problems.

Rosberg just did what he always did and made most of these opportunities which really wasn't that difficult as he had the best car on the grid.

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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wynters wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:35 am
I put this in the RBR thread but it's probably useful here too.

Barcelona. A track easier to win from Pole on than Monaco (or so David Croft said...)

Lap 1, Hamilton pulls 1.5 seconds on Verstappen who has had a great start, driving around the outside of Bottas in turn 1 with cool professionalism. I noted that he didn't squeeze Bottas, which he may have done a couple of years ago (and, with Stroll unseen on Bottas' inside, could've been disastrous).

Verstappen holds Hamilton (or vice-versa) at 1.5 seconds (Hamilton has a slow lap 3 but, otherwise, slowly increases his pace in line with fuel burn off). Bottas finally clears Stroll on Lap 5, and closes the gap to Verstappen within two laps. Everyone then settles down into 'Grandma' mode. I think these 5 laps are crucial. DAS and their PU give Mercedes a big advantage in pace in the opening lap (as I've highlighted before) and Bottas spends that lap (and four more) behind a car with a comparable straight line speed. I'm not sure he get's Verstappen at the end of Lap 1, but I think it's his best chance without having to rely on strategy.

Until Lap 10. To quote Brundle, this is when Hamilton pulls the pin with a 1:23.618, 7/10ths faster than his previous pace. Verstappen and Bottas try to respond, but Hamilton ups the pace by a further 4/10ths the next lap, 1:23.238. Verstappen can only manage a 1:23.473. Hamilton's next four laps average 1:23.032. Verstappen 1:23.549. And, to make it worse, Verstappen's tyres are beginning to go away from him. Lap 15 is a 1:23.759 to Hamilton's 1.23.095. Verstappen's times begin to fall away, rising into the mid 1:24s until he pits at the end of lap 21. Verstappen's last lap before pitting is a 1:24.579, Hamilton, same lap, a 1:23.394.

Verstappen had been asking the team to pit him earlier but, with the delta needed to overtake in Barcelona so brutal, the team felt they needed to keep him out until he cleared the Racing Points. I agree with them. The Racing Points are also what stop Bottas undercutting Verstappen. He'd closed up to under 2 seconds as Verstappen struggled on the last of this tyre life but, if he'd pitted, he would have come out behind Stroll and, possibly, Perez.

RBR put in a typically outstanding pitstop and Verstappen is clear of traffic. Bottas, in clear air now, stays out for two laps to try and start building an offset to Verstappen but his lap times of c.1:24:4s and his almost identical inlap suggest he had nothing in reserve. Hamilton pits the same lap in a Mercedes 'double-stack', the rear left costing him 2 seconds. However, his two extra laps over Verstappen were c.1:23.5s and his in lap was over a second faster.

Whatever issues Mercedes had in Silverstone 2 did not apply here. In the last four laps of their stints, Hamilton was over three seconds faster than Verstappen, and went nearly 10% further.

Stint 1 summary:-
Hamilton: 23 laps at 1:23.755 (1:23.995)
Verstappen: 21 laps at 1:24.075 (1:24.426)
Bottas: 23 laps at 1:24.098 (1:24.507)
This excludes the first lap and inlap. The time in brackets includes them, as neither Verstappen nor Hamilton were strongly hindered in those laps. This really hammers home just how much the Red Bull was struggling.

Worth noting that Verstappen understandably pushed on his out lap (as did Bottas), Hamilton was much more relaxed (c. a second slower)

Red Bull had pitted Albon at the end of lap 17 and he came about behind Esteban Ocon (who was putting in a notably punchy performance, pretty much the only person to get overtakes done during his first stint (of a one-stopper, no less)). Albon had been falling way from Perez but, although his tyres were clearly suffering, Ocon was at the tail end of the Magnusson train and Albon only needed to find three seconds to come out in front of all of them and into five seconds of clear air behind Ricciardo. So, why pit him early and why put him on the Hard? My initial thought was that this was done to provide sufficient time to get tyre information to inform Verstappen's strategy. However, looking at Albon's times vs K-Mag's...Albon was lapping faster but the delta was falling. Albon would've needed six more laps, at least, to get in front of K-Mag and that would mean running until lap 23 (the lap the Mercedes pitted) without the delta falling off even further. That doesn't look feasible. At which point, if Albon is screwed anyway, you may as well get something useful out of him. Red Bull makes the best of a bad job here. What do they learn? That the Hard tyre sucks.

Stint 2 for the leaders. Verstappen will do 20 laps, Bottas 25 and Hamilton 27.

Bottas comes out 4 seconds behind Verstappen but closes to 1.8 within two laps. Two laps later, he is at 1.6 seconds. Verstappen reacts calmly. He's been holding a steady pace (slowly improving as fuel burns off) and this doesn't alter as Bottas closes. After his two laps of pushing to avoid a potential overcut, he does five laps at an average of 1:23.514. Bottas gets to 1.6 and Verstappen's next 5 laps are an average of 1:23.259, during which Bottas can't stay in his dirty air and falls back to 2.2 seconds behind. It's possible that lapping Latifi also played a part but I can't find any footage to prove/disprove it. For comparison, Bottas' equivalent pair of 5 laps are an average of 1:22.976 to close the gap and 1:23.515 as he drifts back.

Meanwhile, Verstappen has taken advantage of Mercedes' fumbled pitstops (not least the 2+ seconds Hamilton lost) and Hamilton's slow outlap and is closing. By the end of the 6th lap of Hamilton's stint, what had been a 7+ second gap before the pitstops is now a sub-3.5 second gap, as Verstappen steadily closed him down. However, where Hamilton's pace slowly increases as his fuel burns off, Verstappen can't quite match it and, from lap 30, begins to slowly fall away. A quick punch of the throttle on lap 34 sees Hamilton suddenly gain 5/10ths. The next lap, Verstappen can only find 2/10ths in reply and doing that finishes his tyres. Having averaged 1:23.267 over the previous ten laps and having just put in a 1:22.896, Verstappen's next lap is a 1:23.548 and his next five laps (at which point he pits) are a 1:23.587 average.

This sees Verstappen begin to fall back into Bottas' hands. On lap 38, Bottas takes advantage of a particularly slow Verstappen lap to close up. Verstappen takes another lap before he responds (tyre temp troubles?) but Bottas is now only 1.44 behind. Verstappen pushes to a 1:23.096, opening the gap to 1.6, then pits at the end of the next lap to avoid any chance of an undercut. It gives me an average stint time (excluding in/out laps) of 1:23.515 over 20 laps.

In clean air once more, Bottas shows his pace in hand. Where he had been matching Verstappen's 1:23.4s over the last few laps, he bangs in a pacey 1:21.857. Verstappen responds with a good outlap (combined with another great pitstop) and keeps his foot down as Bottas spends five laps in the 1:22.8s. It's enough to keep the Finn behind him and, when Bottas pits, he comes out seven seconds behind Verstappen.

Up front, Hamilton has been setting his own pace and, other than a lap being held up by Perez*, it's been uneventful. Scheduled to come in one lap after Bottas, he stays out so the team can change their strategy from doing the final lap on Softs to, instead, finishing the race on Mediums.

Stint 2 summary:-
Hamilton: 27 laps at 1:22.729 (1:23.443)
Verstappen: 20 laps at 1:23.376 (1:24.280)
Bottas: 25 laps at 1:23.091 (1:23.810)
The time in brackets includes in/outlaps but excludes time stationary for the first pitstop)

The final stints for Hamilton and Verstappen were on the Medium, Bottas had an ill-judged stint on the Softs. The race is done at this stage. Bottas will find no time on the Softs and will pit at the end of lap 64 so he can set the fastest lap on the last lap. Hamilton comes out from his last pit stop more than ten seconds clear of Verstappen and the gap only opens to the end.

I've not yet looked at Vettel's pace on the Softs but Bottas started this stint 7.1 seconds behind Verstappen (on 8 lap fresher tyres), and spent 14 laps closing up to 5.2 seconds. Over the same stint length vs Hamilton, who was comfortably cruising in the lead and on the 'slower' tyre, Bottas lost more than half-a-second a lap to his team mate.

Stint 3 summary:-
Hamilton: 16 laps at 1:20.979 (1:22.102)
Verstappen: 25 laps at 1:21.977 (1:22:681)
Bottas: 16 laps at 1:21.652 (1:23.080)
The time in brackets includes outlap and the last lap (inlap for Bottas) but excludes stationary time at the pitstops.

Not much to say about this GP, it was all over by Turn 2 (for the leaders, at least). The midfield battle was pretty interesting, mix of strategy and pace. Up front, Hamilton could go much faster, for much longer. His second stint, in particular, is impressive. On the main race tyre, the Mercedes was more than 8/10ths a lap faster and did 135% of the distance (although bear in mind that this performance gap is inflated due to lighter fuel impacting the last third of the stint). A comparison of the same laps (e.g. lap 25 vs lap 25 until lap 40 vs lap 40) gives us a pace difference of 1:23.028 vs 1.23.389, but that doesn't take into account the much high tyre management Hamilton needed to do. Frustratingly, we so rarely get to compare apples to apples in F1.

As always, feedback/corrections are very welcome and thank you for the kind words so far.

*Ironically, Kvyat's penalty was for holding up Verstappen. Both Perez and Kvyat were cited for ignoring blue flags from Turn 6 until Turn 1 on the next lap.
Excellent post and analysis, thank you.

ENGINE TUNER
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:51 am
Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:35 am
Bottas called with Rosberg on how to beat Hamilton. That's a move of desperation and panic, of somebody who has no ideas left anymore on how to personally beat him, so he seeks help as last straws. It is the sign of somebody who simply is not capable in any way on his own or naturally to beat his teammate. At best, Bottas gets some (perhaps even dirty) tips, but that's not on merit. Bottas never will beat Lewis. Bottas is 2nd range, and he always will be. He thinks he has the stuff, but he doesn't. He has been made to believe he is/has the stuff, but he hasn't. He's 3rd in the WDC with a dominant car, and half the season isn't even done. 2021 will be his last season with Mercedes.
Do you have a source for that?

If that is true that is really pathetic and if I was Lewis I wouldn't be so amicable towards him.

Anyway what did Rosberg actually do any different?

It was Hamilton and not Rosberg who botched his starts, it was also down to luck that he had mechanical problems.

Rosberg just did what he always did and made most of these opportunities which really wasn't that difficult as he had the best car on the grid.
Rosberg had just as many poor starts as Hamilton did, it was mainly the car being a poor starter rather than the drivers. Hamilton beat Rosberg the same as he beats Bottas.

Bottas actually makes less mistakes and causes less collisions than Rosberg did. Both Rosberg and Bottas are great drivers, Bottas probably a tiny bit "better" and clearly faster on saturday, but neither is the caliber of Hamilton. Both Rosberg and Bottas were/are top 5 drivers when at their peak, but that just goes to show the excellence of Lewis Hamilton.

Bottasis closer to Hamilton in qually than Rosberg was, but that could be down to Hamilton focusing more on the race setup than he does for 1 lap pace.

There is a very warped view of just how good Rosberg was vs Hamilton. Hamilton absolutely DOMINATED Rosberg, even moreso than he does Bottas, and Rosberg was far more experienced than Bottas was in 2017.
Last edited by ENGINE TUNER on Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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I agree, really excellent. The only addition I have is maybe to also take in consideration (emphasize a bit more) who is running close behind someone a bit more as that has dire consequences to tire life. In fact, next to Hamilton driving incredibly good and Merc having all under control that was the deciding factor, Max spending that first stint in the wake of Lewis.

But the post is fantastic. I usually produce nothing more than short of the bat writings.
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Manoah2u
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Re: 2020 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, August 14 - 16

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Wass85 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:51 am
Manoah2u wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:35 am
Bottas called with Rosberg on how to beat Hamilton. That's a move of desperation and panic, of somebody who has no ideas left anymore on how to personally beat him, so he seeks help as last straws. It is the sign of somebody who simply is not capable in any way on his own or naturally to beat his teammate. At best, Bottas gets some (perhaps even dirty) tips, but that's not on merit. Bottas never will beat Lewis. Bottas is 2nd range, and he always will be. He thinks he has the stuff, but he doesn't. He has been made to believe he is/has the stuff, but he hasn't. He's 3rd in the WDC with a dominant car, and half the season isn't even done. 2021 will be his last season with Mercedes.
Do you have a source for that?

If that is true that is really pathetic and if I was Lewis I wouldn't be so amicable towards him.

Anyway what did Rosberg actually do any different?

It was Hamilton and not Rosberg who botched his starts, it was also down to luck that he had mechanical problems.

Rosberg just did what he always did and made most of these opportunities which really wasn't that difficult as he had the best car on the grid.
https://www.grandprix.com/news/bottas-c ... dvice.html

tadaa.
"To beat Hamilton, you have to get inside his head, because that's where he is not as strong," Rosberg told Sky Italia in Barcelona."Bottas has to do that now, even if it seems to me that he has some trouble with it.
"He even called me. Maybe the team asked him not to ask me," Rosberg, who clashed badly with Hamilton during the 2016 title battle, smiled.
there are several sources on the matter.

Rosberg started playing psychological (mind) games with Hamilton. I don't know specifically which, but Rosberg mentioned he himself learned tricks and asked tips on Schumacher how to beat Hamilton.

Rosberg is suggesting Bottas was too 'soft' in that area, like he himself was before 2016 as it seems.
It was also that same year that Rosberg was much more agressive towards Hamilton in the races, there was much more contact, and much more animosity. In a way it's questionable whether it worked, as a lot still is down to the fact Hamilton indeed botched many starts and had technical problems which cost him probably the hardest.

Yet, it was also clear from certain briefings that Hamilton was far more 'provoked' ant 'triggered' if you may, and let's be honest, that does influence a driver.

Right now, Bottas looks like he'll simply drive aside for Lewis if asked to, or if he pops up in his mirrors. It also LOOKS like he'll bend to the team's will, and take any team order or strategy. I think that is comparable to Rosberg before, even though i definately concider Rosberg a better driver to start with.

Bottas thus needs to learn to slam his fist on the table, don't play along with dubious pit or tire strategies, and don't let Lewis overtake him that easy. Let's put it like this: it looks like when Rosberg was unable to avoid being overtaken by Hamilton, he damn made sure that the only way to overtake him was in a corner and that resulted in 'accidental' contact between the two. 'all or nothing' mentality, and that's definately Schumi behaviour.

That will result in Hamilton learning that overtaking Rosberg is going to be a risk. If Bottas does that, then Hamilton will learn: overtaking Bottas is a risk.

An example of how this recently works is with how Lewis looks at Verstappen. He knows that overtaking Max is a danger, a danger that he does NOT have with Bottas - and that has nothing to do with the fact Valterri is his teammate: with Rosberg, it was exactly the same.
Overtaking Max is a 'relatively' high chance of contact, and thus could cost him the race and finally the title.

read this for example

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... n-space-f1
Hamilton:

I always leave Max a lot of space because it is the smartest thing you can do.”

he went further in suggesting that clashes with Verstappen were almost inevitable unless he was given a wide berth. “Every driver is slightly different. Some are very smart and aggressive, and some are silly with it,” he said. “So through those experiences you give some more space, and with others you don’t have to because they are quite respectful. But with Max it is very likely you are going to come together with him if you don’t give him the extra space.

Vettel, who has also had several run-ins with Verstappen, gave an acerbic but amusing answer when asked his opinion. Referring to Hamilton’s comments he said: “Just copy and paste. It’s true.”
Why i mention this is exactly what Bottas is missing.

Every driver looks at Verstappen as a danger for contact and thus could ruin your race, and as such, they approach overtaking him differently.

These are the games Bottas needs to learn, as Rosberg suggests will bring a benefit, and I do agree.

That said, personally, i still belive Bottas simply falls way too short in speed and craft anyway, so it probably won't matter, AND i doubt the team will 'accept' that behaviour the way they (had to?) accept it from Rosberg.

BUT, i'm sure 2021 will be the last season for Bottas @ Mercedes anyway, so why not just give it a go instead of being the lap dog laughing stock?
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.