2021 Pecking order prediction

[Just_a_fan]

Wouldn't it be amusingly ironic if this season ends up being a close one - a classic, even - just before the massive rule change next year that is being brought in to make the racing better?

If RedBull are closer to Mercedes, if McLaren jump up a bit with the Mercedes PU in the back, if Ferrari close up too, etc., we could end up with a really good season that goes to the wire. A close season this year will also make next year more interesting as the teams will have to concentrate on this year more than perhaps they would like to - especially Mercedes and RedBull if they're fighting for one or both titles.

I'm actually quite excited about the season as I think it will be much closer everywhere in the field than we've seen for some time.

[Big Tea]

Wouldn't it be amusingly ironic if this season ends up being a close one - a classic, even - just before the massive rule change next year that is being brought in to make the racing better?

If RedBull are closer to Mercedes, if McLaren jump up a bit with the Mercedes PU in the back, if Ferrari close up too, etc., we could end up with a really good season that goes to the wire. A close season this year will also make next year more interesting as the teams will have to concentrate on this year more than perhaps they would like to - especially Mercedes and RedBull if they're fighting for one or both titles.

I'm actually quite excited about the season as I think it will be much closer everywhere in the field than we've seen for some time.

It would probably be because of that. It is pointless developing the cars beyond a point, and the leaders will reach that point before the others, so if they underestimate the requirement it is possible they will be caught with their facilities unable to respond in time.

Could Williams pul off the impossible? (:mrgreen: nah, but it would be nice)

[dtro]

From Leclerc's statements it didnt sound like they're expecting to be fighting at the front this year. Something along the lines of "we have to build on from where we were last year..."

I hope RB will surprise and be capeable of winning from the start for once, but I fully expect Mercedes to run away with it fairly uncontested once again.

AMR is somewhat of a dark horse, but I dont expect them to be capeable of running with the big dogs. So probably business as usual at the front, but a promising midfield battle to look forward to.

One of the first things I remember Binotto saying last year is the car would be a beater in Australia- and probably a beater in Austria. I don't know if you can make a beater any better, which might leave me bitter, but it feels smooth as butter, batter.

[McMika98]

6 way title fight between Lewis, Vettel, Max, Alonso, Charles and Ricciardo. Lewis & Vettel to front run in 1st half and then everyone to catch up. Alonso to win the WDC in the final race and do justice for his previous failure.

Mercedes & Aston Martin to have an early advantage but other team to catch them with wins for Alpine, McLaren & Ferrari.

RedBull to disappoint again.

[aMessageToCharlie]

6 way title fight between Lewis, Vettel, Max, Alonso, Charles and Ricciardo. Lewis & Vettel to front run in 1st half and then everyone to catch up. Alonso to win the WDC in the final race and do justice for his previous failure.

[Jambier]

With Alpine on basically same car and engine barely updated (mid season update) because focusing on 2022 car and engine with Mercedes concept

With Ferrari also working on 2022 and engine with Mercedes concept

There is just Red Bull that will try to challenge Mercedes with their updated engine (+15hp)

Aston Martin will be ok with a two year old Mercedes though

[Wouter]

There is just Red Bull that will try to challenge Mercedes with their updated engine (+15hp)

Honda just +15HP??
That wouldn't be good !! Then they better not start the season.
Every upgrade during the past seasons has been at least 25HP per new spec,
several times a year and now only 15HP with a new engine? No way.

[ENGINE TUNER]

1) Merc
2) RBR
3)Ferrari
4) McLaren ( AMR have the faster car, but have a terrible driver lineup that will throw away points all season)
5) AMR or Alpine, will Alonso make the difference?
6) Alpine or AMR

Don't really care about the rest.

[LM10]

Wouldn't it be amusingly ironic if this season ends up being a close one - a classic, even - just before the massive rule change next year that is being brought in to make the racing better?

If RedBull are closer to Mercedes, if McLaren jump up a bit with the Mercedes PU in the back, if Ferrari close up too, etc., we could end up with a really good season that goes to the wire. A close season this year will also make next year more interesting as the teams will have to concentrate on this year more than perhaps they would like to - especially Mercedes and RedBull if they're fighting for one or both titles.

I'm actually quite excited about the season as I think it will be much closer everywhere in the field than we've seen for some time.

I agree with you on the part that the field will be much closer everywhere and that's also what makes me quite excited about the upcoming season.

RedBull seems to be serious with their car with all the effort they put in trying to hide it. Same goes for Mercedes trying to hide the floor area and making a secret out of where they spent their tokens on. I think that this time we finally will see some kind of a title fight until the enb. I not only think, but hope it of course. In the first place because I don't want to see a Mercedes domination again and secondly because I want both teams to fight it out and make them shift focus on 2022 later than Ferrari.

As for the midfield I think that it will be even closer than last season. I feel Ferrari will have problems beating the Aston Martin which looks like a complete package consisting of some Mercedes goodness yet again. At the end I'm predicting the Aston Martin to be on 3rd place with Ferrari behind, but not by that much. Of course it will also be up to in-season development and Binotto has already told that they will put almost no development into the 2021 car and instead focus on 2022.

[Just_a_fan]

I agree with you on the part that the field will be much closer everywhere and that's also what makes me quite excited about the upcoming season.

RedBull seems to be serious with their car with all the effort they put in trying to hide it. Same goes for Mercedes trying to hide the floor area and making a secret out of where they spent their tokens on. I think that this time we finally will see some kind of a title fight until the enb. I not only think, but hope it of course. In the first place because I don't want to see a Mercedes domination again and secondly because I want both teams to fight it out and make them shift focus on 2022 later than Ferrari.

As for the midfield I think that it will be even closer than last season. I feel Ferrari will have problems beating the Aston Martin which looks like a complete package consisting of some Mercedes goodness yet again. At the end I'm predicting the Aston Martin to be on 3rd place with Ferrari behind, but not by that much. Of course it will also be up to in-season development and Binotto has already told that they will put almost no development into the 2021 car and instead focus on 2022.

If you're hoping for a distraction from the 2022 cars, I would point out that Mercedes designed two cars a couple of years ago, tested one and then raced the other. If any team can fully campaign in 2021 and design for 2022 at the same time, it's them.

I'm also excited about the season. I think it will be a lot closer than it has been for a while - early 2018 close, for example. I can see Lewis and Max fighting it out and someone else sneaking through behind them. Wouldn't that be an interesting season?

[basti313]

There is just Red Bull that will try to challenge Mercedes with their updated engine (+15hp)

Honda just +15HP??
That wouldn't be good !! Then they better not start the season.
Every upgrade during the past seasons has been at least 25HP per new spec,
several times a year and now only 15HP with a new engine? No way.

+15 relative to what? On the old Honda or relative to the Merc gain?

We should not forget, that Merc was running the engine conservative as they can last year....the usual "Honda will be competitive this year" would be very surprising if true for the first time when they leave.

Wouldn't it be amusingly ironic if this season ends up being a close one - a classic, even - just before the massive rule change next year that is being brought in to make the racing better?

If RedBull are closer to Mercedes, if McLaren jump up a bit with the Mercedes PU in the back, if Ferrari close up too, etc., we could end up with a really good season that goes to the wire. A close season this year will also make next year more interesting as the teams will have to concentrate on this year more than perhaps they would like to - especially Mercedes and RedBull if they're fighting for one or both titles.

I'm actually quite excited about the season as I think it will be much closer everywhere in the field than we've seen for some time.

I agree with you on the part that the field will be much closer everywhere and that's also what makes me quite excited about the upcoming season.

RedBull seems to be serious with their car with all the effort they put in trying to hide it. Same goes for Mercedes trying to hide the floor area and making a secret out of where they spent their tokens on. I think that this time we finally will see some kind of a title fight until the enb. I not only think, but hope it of course. In the first place because I don't want to see a Mercedes domination again and secondly because I want both teams to fight it out and make them shift focus on 2022 later than Ferrari.

As for the midfield I think that it will be even closer than last season. I feel Ferrari will have problems beating the Aston Martin which looks like a complete package consisting of some Mercedes goodness yet again. At the end I'm predicting the Aston Martin to be on 3rd place with Ferrari behind, but not by that much. Of course it will also be up to in-season development and Binotto has already told that they will put almost no development into the 2021 car and instead focus on 2022.

Well this thread is called "prediction" not "wish".

I would also wish they develop longer, but we need to be clear...no team will do anything but easy changes this year. There will be no 2021 part in the windtunnel or CFD for ANY team.

Merc strongly prepared the 2021 season already in the last race and young driver test...no reason why they should lack behind anything. I fear, that Aston (2020 Merc parts+ engine upgrade) will be moving closer to RedBull than RedBull to Merc. Especially since we know that Merc has upgraded the engine there is no reason that RedBull will be closer to Merc than just the wet wish of it.

Ferrari will be in the game if the rumor about reduced fuel flow is true. So maybe P3 is interesting this year, P1 and P2...do not look at it.

[LM10]

I agree with you on the part that the field will be much closer everywhere and that's also what makes me quite excited about the upcoming season.

RedBull seems to be serious with their car with all the effort they put in trying to hide it. Same goes for Mercedes trying to hide the floor area and making a secret out of where they spent their tokens on. I think that this time we finally will see some kind of a title fight until the enb. I not only think, but hope it of course. In the first place because I don't want to see a Mercedes domination again and secondly because I want both teams to fight it out and make them shift focus on 2022 later than Ferrari.

As for the midfield I think that it will be even closer than last season. I feel Ferrari will have problems beating the Aston Martin which looks like a complete package consisting of some Mercedes goodness yet again. At the end I'm predicting the Aston Martin to be on 3rd place with Ferrari behind, but not by that much. Of course it will also be up to in-season development and Binotto has already told that they will put almost no development into the 2021 car and instead focus on 2022.

If you're hoping for a distraction from the 2022 cars, I would point out that Mercedes designed two cars a couple of years ago, tested one and then raced the other. If any team can fully campaign in 2021 and design for 2022 at the same time, it's them.

I'm also excited about the season. I think it will be a lot closer than it has been for a while - early 2018 close, for example. I can see Lewis and Max fighting it out and someone else sneaking through behind them. Wouldn't that be an interesting season?

You mean 2019, right? They tested a car in the first week and then got a big upgrade package for the second week as far as I remember. I doubt it was two cars designed at the same time rather than upgrades which were fully ready only in the second half of testing. Even for Mercedes with unlimited resources which they had at that time it would be an almost impossible task to design two cars simultaneously, don't you think?
That being said, you seem to have forgotten the cost cap now.

I totally agree with you on the second part of your post!

[LM10]

Well this thread is called "prediction" not "wish".

I would also wish they develop longer, but we need to be clear...no team will do anything but easy changes this year. There will be no 2021 part in the windtunnel or CFD for ANY team.

Merc strongly prepared the 2021 season already in the last race and young driver test...no reason why they should lack behind anything. I fear, that Aston (2020 Merc parts+ engine upgrade) will be moving closer to RedBull than RedBull to Merc. Especially since we know that Merc has upgraded the engine there is no reason that RedBull will be closer to Merc than just the wet wish of it.

Ferrari will be in the game if the rumor about reduced fuel flow is true. So maybe P3 is interesting this year, P1 and P2...do not look at it.

Mercedes and Lewis will 100% go all in for the 8th title, also because they know they have high chances of winning it. It would be a big milestone and put Hamilton ahead of Michael in terms of world titles. And since this is the last season RedBull can be sure of their potential relative to Mercedes (2022 is a question mark for all) they will push as well - especially if they see they have a potential to win the title.
If these two teams find out they're pretty close to each other and have a shot at the title it will be a totally different story compared to Ferrari who already know they don't have a chance to fight at the top in 2021.

[SmallSoldier]

I agree with you on the part that the field will be much closer everywhere and that's also what makes me quite excited about the upcoming season.

RedBull seems to be serious with their car with all the effort they put in trying to hide it. Same goes for Mercedes trying to hide the floor area and making a secret out of where they spent their tokens on. I think that this time we finally will see some kind of a title fight until the enb. I not only think, but hope it of course. In the first place because I don't want to see a Mercedes domination again and secondly because I want both teams to fight it out and make them shift focus on 2022 later than Ferrari.

As for the midfield I think that it will be even closer than last season. I feel Ferrari will have problems beating the Aston Martin which looks like a complete package consisting of some Mercedes goodness yet again. At the end I'm predicting the Aston Martin to be on 3rd place with Ferrari behind, but not by that much. Of course it will also be up to in-season development and Binotto has already told that they will put almost no development into the 2021 car and instead focus on 2022.

If you're hoping for a distraction from the 2022 cars, I would point out that Mercedes designed two cars a couple of years ago, tested one and then raced the other. If any team can fully campaign in 2021 and design for 2022 at the same time, it's them.

I'm also excited about the season. I think it will be a lot closer than it has been for a while - early 2018 close, for example. I can see Lewis and Max fighting it out and someone else sneaking through behind them. Wouldn't that be an interesting season?

With the budget cap, that feat won’t be easily reproduced... They had the resources to work on 2 cars when their budget exceed half a billion... Now with the cap, it will be way harder to do so.


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[zibby43]

I agree with you on the part that the field will be much closer everywhere and that's also what makes me quite excited about the upcoming season.

RedBull seems to be serious with their car with all the effort they put in trying to hide it. Same goes for Mercedes trying to hide the floor area and making a secret out of where they spent their tokens on. I think that this time we finally will see some kind of a title fight until the enb. I not only think, but hope it of course. In the first place because I don't want to see a Mercedes domination again and secondly because I want both teams to fight it out and make them shift focus on 2022 later than Ferrari.

As for the midfield I think that it will be even closer than last season. I feel Ferrari will have problems beating the Aston Martin which looks like a complete package consisting of some Mercedes goodness yet again. At the end I'm predicting the Aston Martin to be on 3rd place with Ferrari behind, but not by that much. Of course it will also be up to in-season development and Binotto has already told that they will put almost no development into the 2021 car and instead focus on 2022.

If you're hoping for a distraction from the 2022 cars, I would point out that Mercedes designed two cars a couple of years ago, tested one and then raced the other. If any team can fully campaign in 2021 and design for 2022 at the same time, it's them.

I'm also excited about the season. I think it will be a lot closer than it has been for a while - early 2018 close, for example. I can see Lewis and Max fighting it out and someone else sneaking through behind them. Wouldn't that be an interesting season?

They tested a car in the first week and then got a big upgrade package for the second week as far as I remember. I doubt it was two cars designed at the same time rather than upgrades which were fully ready only in the second half of testing.

. . . the cost cap . . .

In 2019, the car that Mercedes rolled out in the first week of testing was a specification that had been "frozen" a few months prior to the start of the season.

They had been developing the car/package that they brought to the second week of testing concurrently with that spec. That was the year the front wing regulations changed. It was a monumental task for Mercedes to adapt, because they had the most complicated FW in the paddock prior to '19. It featured a really intricate set of outwash tunnels built into the outboard section of the FW flaps, among other features.

Regarding the cost cap, Mercedes has said that they've found new ways to be more efficient with their resources (financial, wind tunnel, CFD, etc.), which has in turn given them a performance boost. They also launched the Applied Sciences Division of the team with INEOS, which is a clever way to adapt to the cap.

In sum, I definitely think the cost cap is going to relieve some pressure on some of the midfield teams, but I'm not expecting it to rattle a team like Merc. They'll find a way to make it work to their advantage.