2021 Pecking order prediction

[Jolle]

Let’s see...

1. AMG Mercedes (obviously)
2. RedBull (Obviously)
3. Renault (at some distance)
4. Ferrari (more to do with other teams performing less)
5. McLaren (the engine switch and the subsequent loss in development points hurts them)
6. Alpha Tauri (solid car, solid team)
7. Aston Martin (developing a copied car is far more difficult then your own design. Also, they lost Perez as a steady scorer)
8. Alfa Romeo (no change)
9. Williams (I hope the new floor rules evens out Williams bad floor a bit)
10. HAAS.

[mclaren111]

Head - Merc, RB, Ren, Mcl, Fer, AM, AT, Wil, AR, Ha

Gut - RB, Merc, Ren, Fer, AM, Mcl, AT, AR, Wil, Ha

Wish - AR, AM, Fer, Ha, Wil, Ren, Mcl, AT, RB, safety car, recovery crane, tow truck, track sweeper, Lewis's moped, Merc

[Just_a_fan]

Merc is losing a lot of toys for 2021

They're losing DAS, yes, but what else are they losing that no one else is? Or do you think the aero changes will hit them harder because of their aero philosophy compared to e.g. Red Bull?

It'll be interesting to see who loses most from the floor and diffuser changes.

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

Some say that way, some that high rake loses. Not long now and we'll know either way.

[Jolle]

They're losing DAS, yes, but what else are they losing that no one else is? Or do you think the aero changes will hit them harder because of their aero philosophy compared to e.g. Red Bull?

It'll be interesting to see who loses most from the floor and diffuser changes.

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

Some say that way, some that high rake loses. Not long now and we'll know either way.

With a high rake you need more width to create a low pressure area and more trickery to seal the floor, because the gap is bigger. Mercedes will still have more floor area before the diffuser. And with the flow under the wishbones instead of over it with the wider nose, they have more air to play with.

[Zynerji]

I think low rake pays a penalty when floor area diminishes.

Some say that way, some that high rake loses. Not long now and we'll know either way.

With a high rake you need more width to create a low pressure area and more trickery to seal the floor, because the gap is bigger. Mercedes will still have more floor area before the diffuser. And with the flow under the wishbones instead of over it with the wider nose, they have more air to play with.

With the tapered floor in front of the rear tyre, any possibility of edge extraction to effectively increase the diffuser volume?

[Jolle]

Some say that way, some that high rake loses. Not long now and we'll know either way.

With a high rake you need more width to create a low pressure area and more trickery to seal the floor, because the gap is bigger. Mercedes will still have more floor area before the diffuser. And with the flow under the wishbones instead of over it with the wider nose, they have more air to play with.

With the tapered floor in front of the rear tyre, any possibility of edge extraction to effectively increase the diffuser volume?

The diffuser’s job is to create a low pressure area under the car, its not the diffuser that creates the downforce, it’s the floor. So air coming in from the sides of the floor into the diffuser is bad. Not only does this higher the pressure under the car, it also stops this air to accelerate to create this low pressure because it’s blocking the diffuser.

Somehow they need to find a cheap (in development tokens) solution somewhere on the barge boards or the inside of the front wing to create a very precise vortex to block air leaking in. Of course, redbull has a good shot of finding this magic bullet but they don’t have much to play with, at least, less then Mercedes who to begin with, have a smaller problem.

[Zynerji]

With a high rake you need more width to create a low pressure area and more trickery to seal the floor, because the gap is bigger. Mercedes will still have more floor area before the diffuser. And with the flow under the wishbones instead of over it with the wider nose, they have more air to play with.

With the tapered floor in front of the rear tyre, any possibility of edge extraction to effectively increase the diffuser volume?

The diffuser’s job is to create a low pressure area under the car, its not the diffuser that creates the downforce, it’s the floor. So air coming in from the sides of the floor into the diffuser is bad. Not only does this higher the pressure under the car, it also stops this air to accelerate to create this low pressure because it’s blocking the diffuser.

Somehow they need to find a cheap (in development tokens) solution somewhere on the barge boards or the inside of the front wing to create a very precise vortex to block air leaking in. Of course, redbull has a good shot of finding this magic bullet but they don’t have much to play with, at least, less then Mercedes who to begin with, have a smaller problem.

I meant it the other way. Like the air being sucked out of the tapered edge, and up between the endplates. This should lower the pressure on the bottom of the floor, and increase the mass air that effects the underside of the rear-wing, causing both to generate more downforce. Correct? This should be do-able with a strong/wide vortex attached to the coke bottle I would assume, or a clever vortex pattern shed from the bargeboard mid-wing.

[Jolle]

With the tapered floor in front of the rear tyre, any possibility of edge extraction to effectively increase the diffuser volume?

The diffuser’s job is to create a low pressure area under the car, its not the diffuser that creates the downforce, it’s the floor. So air coming in from the sides of the floor into the diffuser is bad. Not only does this higher the pressure under the car, it also stops this air to accelerate to create this low pressure because it’s blocking the diffuser.

Somehow they need to find a cheap (in development tokens) solution somewhere on the barge boards or the inside of the front wing to create a very precise vortex to block air leaking in. Of course, redbull has a good shot of finding this magic bullet but they don’t have much to play with, at least, less then Mercedes who to begin with, have a smaller problem.

I meant it the other way. Like the air being sucked out of the tapered edge, and up between the endplates. This should lower the pressure on the bottom of the floor, and increase the mass air that effects the underside of the rear-wing, causing both to generate more downforce. Correct?

Flow is always from a low pressure to a high pressure. Especially in front of the rear tires there is a higher pressure that will bleed under the floor. The best they can do it try to keep this higher pressure contained above the floor, by that blocking every possible passage for air to come from under the floor to the rear of the car by another way then the diffuser. This is why these small cuts have so much impact and the “louvres” in the edge going to be missed. I suspect a lot of stalling high rake floors next year.

Those few cm of extra tire squeel are going to make a big difference in low vs high rake

[Zynerji]

The diffuser’s job is to create a low pressure area under the car, its not the diffuser that creates the downforce, it’s the floor. So air coming in from the sides of the floor into the diffuser is bad. Not only does this higher the pressure under the car, it also stops this air to accelerate to create this low pressure because it’s blocking the diffuser.

Somehow they need to find a cheap (in development tokens) solution somewhere on the barge boards or the inside of the front wing to create a very precise vortex to block air leaking in. Of course, redbull has a good shot of finding this magic bullet but they don’t have much to play with, at least, less then Mercedes who to begin with, have a smaller problem.

I meant it the other way. Like the air being sucked out of the tapered edge, and up between the endplates. This should lower the pressure on the bottom of the floor, and increase the mass air that effects the underside of the rear-wing, causing both to generate more downforce. Correct?

Flow is always from a low pressure to a high pressure. Especially in front of the rear tires there is a higher pressure that will bleed under the floor. The best they can do it try to keep this higher pressure contained above the floor, by that blocking every possible passage for air to come from under the floor to the rear of the car by another way then the diffuser. This is why these small cuts have so much impact and the “louvres” in the edge going to be missed. I suspect a lot of stalling high rake floors next year.

Those few cm of extra tire squeel are going to make a big difference in low vs high rake

Why doesn't that make sense to me?

I assume that you mean faster moving air is at a lower pressure, so keeping the floor sealed prevents migration from the top (high pressure) over the edge to the bottom (low pressure).

[Jolle]

I meant it the other way. Like the air being sucked out of the tapered edge, and up between the endplates. This should lower the pressure on the bottom of the floor, and increase the mass air that effects the underside of the rear-wing, causing both to generate more downforce. Correct?

Flow is always from a low pressure to a high pressure. Especially in front of the rear tires there is a higher pressure that will bleed under the floor. The best they can do it try to keep this higher pressure contained above the floor, by that blocking every possible passage for air to come from under the floor to the rear of the car by another way then the diffuser. This is why these small cuts have so much impact and the “louvres” in the edge going to be missed. I suspect a lot of stalling high rake floors next year.

Those few cm of extra tire squeel are going to make a big difference in low vs high rake

Why doesn't that make sense to me?

I assume that you mean faster moving air is at a lower pressure, so keeping the floor sealed prevents migration from the top (high pressure) over the edge to the bottom (low pressure).

That sealing is the whole golden bullet indeed. Apart from the simpler and narrower floor, they are also going to loose some elements between the rear wing and the rear tire. And, for this leaking purpose (to prevent it) from 2022 they will have skirts on the inside of the rear wheel.

By that way, I meant to write from high to low pressure

I wouldn’t be surprised if RedBull ‘s rake will be a lot lower next year.

[Zynerji]

Flow is always from a low pressure to a high pressure. Especially in front of the rear tires there is a higher pressure that will bleed under the floor. The best they can do it try to keep this higher pressure contained above the floor, by that blocking every possible passage for air to come from under the floor to the rear of the car by another way then the diffuser. This is why these small cuts have so much impact and the “louvres” in the edge going to be missed. I suspect a lot of stalling high rake floors next year.

Those few cm of extra tire squeel are going to make a big difference in low vs high rake

Why doesn't that make sense to me?

I assume that you mean faster moving air is at a lower pressure, so keeping the floor sealed prevents migration from the top (high pressure) over the edge to the bottom (low pressure).

That sealing is the whole golden bullet indeed. Apart from the simpler and narrower floor, they are also going to loose some elements between the rear wing and the rear tire. And, for this leaking purpose (to prevent it) from 2022 they will have skirts on the inside of the rear wheel.

By that way, I meant to write from high to low pressure

I wouldn’t be surprised if RedBull ‘s rake will be a lot lower next year.

I don't think the 2021 rules allow it, but could curved strakes on the underside of the floor push enough air to the tapered edge that it would actually have a zone of high pressure that could actually cause bottom to top migration? Or does the drag of that compression cause too much loss?

[Jolle]

Why doesn't that make sense to me?

I assume that you mean faster moving air is at a lower pressure, so keeping the floor sealed prevents migration from the top (high pressure) over the edge to the bottom (low pressure).

That sealing is the whole golden bullet indeed. Apart from the simpler and narrower floor, they are also going to loose some elements between the rear wing and the rear tire. And, for this leaking purpose (to prevent it) from 2022 they will have skirts on the inside of the rear wheel.

By that way, I meant to write from high to low pressure

I wouldn’t be surprised if RedBull ‘s rake will be a lot lower next year.

I don't think the 2021 rules allow it, but could curved strakes on the underside of the floor push enough air to the tapered edge that it would actually have a zone of high pressure that could actually cause bottom to top migration? Or does the drag of that compression cause too much loss?

Drag, especially in that part of the car is never a problem if it comes with extra downforce. But the pressure in front of the rear tire is so great in comparison with the underside of the car, it’s impossible to create a flow from the floor to the sides. Even with the wider floor, less rear tire exposed at the boundary and the slits to stop this buildup of high pressure, this was more then a challenge. They have to make this gap between floor and tire wake as small as possible. Either physically (lower rake) or with a smart vortex. Redbull has less floor to work with, less air to work with (because of the flow goes more over the wishbones and sidepods) plus a bigger gap beween floor and ground then Mercedes.

[Zynerji]

That sealing is the whole golden bullet indeed. Apart from the simpler and narrower floor, they are also going to loose some elements between the rear wing and the rear tire. And, for this leaking purpose (to prevent it) from 2022 they will have skirts on the inside of the rear wheel.

By that way, I meant to write from high to low pressure

I wouldn’t be surprised if RedBull ‘s rake will be a lot lower next year.

I don't think the 2021 rules allow it, but could curved strakes on the underside of the floor push enough air to the tapered edge that it would actually have a zone of high pressure that could actually cause bottom to top migration? Or does the drag of that compression cause too much loss?

Drag, especially in that part of the car is never a problem if it comes with extra downforce. But the pressure in front of the rear tire is so great in comparison with the underside of the car, it’s impossible to create a flow from the floor to the sides. Even with the wider floor, less rear tire exposed at the boundary and the slits to stop this buildup of high pressure, this was more then a challenge. They have to make this gap between floor and tire wake as small as possible. Either physically (lower rake) or with a smart vortex. Redbull has less floor to work with, less air to work with (because of the flow goes more over the wishbones and sidepods) plus a bigger gap beween floor and ground then Mercedes.

Thanks! Very enlightening info.

[foxmulder_ms]

Let's start with 2021 predictions.

My prediction.

Mercedes
McLaren/Red Bull
Aston Martin Racing
Ferrari
Renault
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Haas
Williams

Cars to be over a second slower than 2020, thanks to Pirelli's 2021 tyres.

I'm not sure that I am all-in on this list. I think there are some changes coming, but obviously, we must wait for the actual outcome. Merc is losing a lot of toys for 2021, RBR finishing 2020 strong. Ferrari and RBR bringing engine upgrades (Merc too, I'm sure, but probably MUCH smaller gain than the other 2).

I'm expecting:

Mercedes/Ferrari/RBR
McLaren/Aston Martin/Renault
Alpha Tauri/Alfa Romeo
Haas/Williams

and.. Earth will be global. what you have is not a prediction, a boring statement of the obvious, mate

Merc
RB
Mclaren
Aston
Renault
ferrari
AT
AR
Has
Williams

[RedNEO]

The amount times the pecking order changed from track to track throughout 2020 kinda makes these things irrelevant.