2021 Pecking order prediction

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MKlaus
MKlaus
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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Kingshark wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:18 pm
Red Bull build a dud in 2017 and 2018? Those dud cars won 7 races despite a 40 horsepower deficit.
with time, we tend to forget the context of how those wins were achieved and only statistics remain to morph the reality. 2017 and 2018 were years of mercedes and ferrari battles.

when red bull came to testing in 2017 with a bland car, everyone thought they have a spec b in progress. however that was just a fantasy. red bull wanted to try low drag package and hadn't fully utilized the 2017 aero changes and that left them far behind both mercedes and ferrari and they could never recover.

red bull's first win came in the 8th round of the season in the infamous race of baku where the leaders, hamilton and vettel engaged in incidents (safety issue for hamilton and penalty for vettel) and were out of contention for a win. it them allowed ricciardo to win the race with a sure shot "2nd place to stroll in a williams", which was robbed by bottas in the last second ditch. stroll finished on podium for williams.
red bull's second win then came in the 15th race of the season in malaysia. vettel had engine issues and didn't participate in qualifying. hamilton took pole despite a struggles with their new upgrade package, which was ripped off for qualifying. kimi qualified second and verstappen third. on race day, kimi stalled before the race started with an engine issue and was off the race. hamilton struggled for tyres and was passed by verstappen on 4th lap easily.
their 3rd win of the season came in mexico where the altitude has helped renault engines to perform better due to their relatively smaller turbo. mercedes were also struggling for slow corner speed in 2017 and it was evident in mexico. vettel got pole, verstappen 2nd and hamilton 3rd. at the start verstappen jumped vettel, there was an incident and vettel lost his front wing and also induced a puncture to hamilton. both protagonists were out of contention.

i can add context to 2018 also, as every one of those rb wins in 2017 and 2018 were scraps collected, being a distant third best team.

this is the first year in testing where they have looked the best and the optimism is justified. this discussion started with why mercedes cannot be brushed aside as they have been the best overall package and red bull hasn't done particularly good job of building leading chassis in the last few years.

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NathanOlder
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:04 am

My end result expectances:

WCC

1 Mercedes
2 RedBull
3 Aston Martin
4 Mclaren
5 Ferrari
6 Alpine
7 Alpha Tauri
8 Alfa Romeo
9 Haas
10 Williams

WDC

1 Hamilton
2 Verstappen
3 Perez
4 Vettel
5 Bottas
6 Ricciardo
7 Alonso
8 Sainz
9 Stroll
10 Ocon
11 LeClerc
12 Norris
13 Gasly
14 Tsunoda
15 Raikkonen
16 Giovanazzi
17 Russell
18 Schumacher
19 Latifi
20 Mazepin


Can I ask how Haas can finish ahead of Williams in the WCC with the WDC order you have predicted :roll: :wink:
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Manoah2u
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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All the more exciting to see how the season unfolds to figure it out :P

It's not that hard though, so no need to roll your eyes. :wink:
After all, it's how 2020 panned out too for Russell. =P~

Russell will have to take a seat for Bottas, and score his 2021 points with Mercedes.
As such, his points will come from Mercedes, NOT from Williams.
Schumacher will finish higher up than the rest and garnish some points,
versus no points @ williams. and therefor Haas finishes in front of Williams.

And yes, this is in the end looking into a magic 8-ball.
apart from that feat, the rest imho is very much how things will most likely turn out.

I'd be extremely, exteremly suprised to see it turn out differently over the whole season.
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

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NathanOlder
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:03 pm
All the more exciting to see how the season unfolds to figure it out :P

It's not that hard though, so no need to roll your eyes. :wink:
After all, it's how 2020 panned out too for Russell. =P~

Russell will have to take a seat for Bottas, and score his 2021 points with Mercedes.
As such, his points will come from Mercedes, NOT from Williams.
Schumacher will finish higher up than the rest and garnish some points,
versus no points @ williams. and therefor Haas finishes in front of Williams.

And yes, this is in the end looking into a magic 8-ball.
apart from that feat, the rest imho is very much how things will most likely turn out.

I'd be extremely, exteremly suprised to see it turn out differently over the whole season.
:lol: fair enough. I hadn't thought of Russell scoring in a Merc to be honest #-o
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proteus
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:03 pm
All the more exciting to see how the season unfolds to figure it out :P

It's not that hard though, so no need to roll your eyes. :wink:
After all, it's how 2020 panned out too for Russell. =P~

Russell will have to take a seat for Bottas, and score his 2021 points with Mercedes.
As such, his points will come from Mercedes, NOT from Williams.
Schumacher will finish higher up than the rest and garnish some points,
versus no points @ williams. and therefor Haas finishes in front of Williams.

And yes, this is in the end looking into a magic 8-ball.
apart from that feat, the rest imho is very much how things will most likely turn out.

I'd be extremely, exteremly suprised to see it turn out differently over the whole season.
I cant imagine how will Scumacher manage to get points at all since Haas invested almost nothing in their car, while Williams was ahead allreday in the second half of the season. Everyone upgraded their cars with tokens, while only boost for Haas will be the Ferrari engine.

I expect an absolut fiasco for them, mainly fighting inside the team, with Latifi in reach on his bad day.
If i would get the money to start my own F1 team, i would revive Arrows

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El Scorchio
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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NathanOlder wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:54 pm
Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:04 am

My end result expectances:

WCC

1 Mercedes
2 RedBull
3 Aston Martin
4 Mclaren
5 Ferrari
6 Alpine
7 Alpha Tauri
8 Alfa Romeo
9 Haas
10 Williams

WDC

1 Hamilton
2 Verstappen
3 Perez
4 Vettel
5 Bottas
6 Ricciardo
7 Alonso
8 Sainz
9 Stroll
10 Ocon
11 LeClerc
12 Norris
13 Gasly
14 Tsunoda
15 Raikkonen
16 Giovanazzi
17 Russell
18 Schumacher
19 Latifi
20 Mazepin


Can I ask how Haas can finish ahead of Williams in the WCC with the WDC order you have predicted :roll: :wink:
Just as prudent, how do Mercedes win the WCC if Bottas is apparently only coming FIFTH in the WDC? (It's probably just about mathematically possible but would involve some really improbable results right across the board, like Hamilton probably winning 20 races for a start) IF Mercedes wins the WCC, the very worst Bottas is realistically going to finish is third. If he's fifth and the two RBR drivers are second and third, Mercedes ain't winning the WCC.

Some other head scratchers on there too.

Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:25 pm

Just as prudent, how do Mercedes win the WCC if Bottas is apparently only coming FIFTH in the WDC? (It's probably just about mathematically possible but would involve some really improbable results right across the board, like Hamilton probably winning 20 races for a start) IF Mercedes wins the WCC, the very worst Bottas is realistically going to finish is third. If he's fifth and the two RBR drivers are second and third, Mercedes ain't winning the WCC.

Some other head scratchers on there too.
2020 - Mercedes would have won both titles with Bottas in fifth. (347 + 119) > (223 + 214).

It does require Hamilton to be significantly ahead of whoever is in 2nd in the championship, of course.
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El Scorchio
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:47 pm
El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:25 pm

Just as prudent, how do Mercedes win the WCC if Bottas is apparently only coming FIFTH in the WDC? (It's probably just about mathematically possible but would involve some really improbable results right across the board, like Hamilton probably winning 20 races for a start) IF Mercedes wins the WCC, the very worst Bottas is realistically going to finish is third. If he's fifth and the two RBR drivers are second and third, Mercedes ain't winning the WCC.

Some other head scratchers on there too.
2020 - Mercedes would have won both titles with Bottas in fifth. (347 + 119) > (223 + 214).

It does require Hamilton to be significantly ahead of whoever is in 2nd in the championship, of course.
Interesting! Would that actually work with taking into account a realistic point swing for all the other drivers though? Verstappen particularly would probably have quite a few more. (Really not asking anyone to do this as it sounds like an excruciating task...)

I think this season would be somewhat different on the assumption the RBR drivers accumulate far more points and the margins look like being much closer. And if Perez doesn't do a LOT better than Albon, I'll eat my hat!

Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:37 pm

Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:28 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:47 pm
El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:25 pm

Just as prudent, how do Mercedes win the WCC if Bottas is apparently only coming FIFTH in the WDC? (It's probably just about mathematically possible but would involve some really improbable results right across the board, like Hamilton probably winning 20 races for a start) IF Mercedes wins the WCC, the very worst Bottas is realistically going to finish is third. If he's fifth and the two RBR drivers are second and third, Mercedes ain't winning the WCC.

Some other head scratchers on there too.
2020 - Mercedes would have won both titles with Bottas in fifth. (347 + 119) > (223 + 214).

It does require Hamilton to be significantly ahead of whoever is in 2nd in the championship, of course.
Interesting! Would that actually work with taking into account a realistic point swing for all the other drivers though? Verstappen particularly would probably have quite a few more. (Really not asking anyone to do this as it sounds like an excruciating task...)

I think this season would be somewhat different on the assumption the RBR drivers accumulate far more points and the margins look like being much closer. And if Perez doesn't do a LOT better than Albon, I'll eat my hat!
Interestingly, Bottas and Max had the same number of firsts, seconds, and thirds in 2020. Max had 5 DNFs to Bottas's single DNF. But Max scored points in all other races where Bottas didn't score in two races. So in effect Max hadtwo more non-scoring races than Bottas and was 9 points behind him in the season. So one might argue that Max would have scored more than Bottas did had Bottas not been there. If you took out Bottas and moved the other drivers up, Perez's score for the season would be just behind Max's which is doubtless exactly what Red Bull would want.

Without Bottas in the mix, Max would have had three race improvements and an additional win. But there's no way of knowing that the other Red Bull driver wouldn't have had some additional issues.

It's all hand-waving silliness whilst waiting for the weekend's real F1 season to get underway. :lol:
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

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NathanOlder
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Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:05 am
Location: Kent

Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:28 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:47 pm
El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:25 pm

Just as prudent, how do Mercedes win the WCC if Bottas is apparently only coming FIFTH in the WDC? (It's probably just about mathematically possible but would involve some really improbable results right across the board, like Hamilton probably winning 20 races for a start) IF Mercedes wins the WCC, the very worst Bottas is realistically going to finish is third. If he's fifth and the two RBR drivers are second and third, Mercedes ain't winning the WCC.

Some other head scratchers on there too.
2020 - Mercedes would have won both titles with Bottas in fifth. (347 + 119) > (223 + 214).

It does require Hamilton to be significantly ahead of whoever is in 2nd in the championship, of course.
Interesting! Would that actually work with taking into account a realistic point swing for all the other drivers though? Verstappen particularly would probably have quite a few more. (Really not asking anyone to do this as it sounds like an excruciating task...)

I think this season would be somewhat different on the assumption the RBR drivers accumulate far more points and the margins look like being much closer. And if Perez doesn't do a LOT better than Albon, I'll eat my hat!

It could still end up very tight

Ham 385
Ver 380
Per 300
Vet 295
Bot 290

and Mercedes win the WCC as Russell scored 6pts in his 1 off race for Merc that means he finishes higher than Mick Schumacher. 8)
GoLandoGo
Lewis v2.0
King George has arrived.

New found love for GT racing with Assetto Corsa Competizione on PS4.

Manoah2u
Manoah2u
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Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:07 pm

Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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NathanOlder wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:00 pm
El Scorchio wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:28 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:47 pm

2020 - Mercedes would have won both titles with Bottas in fifth. (347 + 119) > (223 + 214).

It does require Hamilton to be significantly ahead of whoever is in 2nd in the championship, of course.
Interesting! Would that actually work with taking into account a realistic point swing for all the other drivers though? Verstappen particularly would probably have quite a few more. (Really not asking anyone to do this as it sounds like an excruciating task...)

I think this season would be somewhat different on the assumption the RBR drivers accumulate far more points and the margins look like being much closer. And if Perez doesn't do a LOT better than Albon, I'll eat my hat!

It could still end up very tight

Ham 385
Ver 380
Per 300
Vet 295
Bot 290

and Mercedes win the WCC as Russell scored 6pts in his 1 off race for Merc that means he finishes higher than Mick Schumacher. 8)
i like the way you think! and actually very much in the realm of possibilities.
with albon this wouldn't even be possible (another RBR driver 3rd).
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

carisi2k
carisi2k
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Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:26 pm

Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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I think it is too early and not enough testing to really tell the pecking order but I think it is safe to say that the Red Bull is going to be the fastest early. A caveat is that we are not sure if Mercedes are sand bagging or are genuinely in trouble with their new car. We know that they could pull out something like they did in 2019 but with the controlled amount of testing and development allowed in 2021 and with most of this having to be focused on the 2022 car they may not be able to achieve this if the car is a toxic little diva as Toto has apparently said. (https://www.planetf1.com/news/toto-wolf ... ttle-diva/).

Below these 2 teams I would put Mclaren at 3. Then a group of four teams in Ferrari, Aston Martin, Alpine, Alpha Tauri. Aston Martin is the anomaly here because they should be ahead of all these guys and fighting with Mclaren for P3 but their issues might leave them at the back of this pecking order if Mercedes can not resolve the gearbox and engine reliability issues that have plagued these 2 team in testing. Then it will be Alfa Romeo, Williams and Haas will be last because they have already given up on 2021.

Kingshark
Kingshark
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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MKlaus wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:21 am
Kingshark wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:18 pm
Red Bull build a dud in 2017 and 2018? Those dud cars won 7 races despite a 40 horsepower deficit.
i can add context to 2018 also, as every one of those rb wins in 2017 and 2018 were scraps collected, being a distant third best team.
Red Bull’s wins at Mexico 2017, Monaco 2018, and Mexico 2018 were completely on merit. It’s also not a coincidence that they often won on circuits where their engine disadvantage was minimized, either due to high altitudes (Mexico) or because of the slow speed nature of the circuit (Monaco).

Verstappen was also leading at Brazil 2018 until the Ocon incident, lapping faster than anyone else. Interlagos is another high altitude circuit.

Hamilton’s legendary pole lap around Singapore was not even the best lap of the session when taking engine power into account. Verstappen was only 0.31s behind him and lost 0.45s on the straights relative to Mercedes.

Those Red Bull chassis, especially the 2018 one, was the best on the grid.

senja
senja
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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proteus wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:09 pm
Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:03 pm
All the more exciting to see how the season unfolds to figure it out :P

It's not that hard though, so no need to roll your eyes. :wink:
After all, it's how 2020 panned out too for Russell. =P~

Russell will have to take a seat for Bottas, and score his 2021 points with Mercedes.
As such, his points will come from Mercedes, NOT from Williams.
Schumacher will finish higher up than the rest and garnish some points,
versus no points @ williams. and therefor Haas finishes in front of Williams.

And yes, this is in the end looking into a magic 8-ball.
apart from that feat, the rest imho is very much how things will most likely turn out.

I'd be extremely, exteremly suprised to see it turn out differently over the whole season.
I cant imagine how will Scumacher manage to get points at all since Haas invested almost nothing in their car, while Williams was ahead allreday in the second half of the season. Everyone upgraded their cars with tokens, while only boost for Haas will be the Ferrari engine.

I expect an absolut fiasco for them, mainly fighting inside the team, with Latifi in reach on his bad day.
Only Ferrari engine will be much bigger gain than anything Williams came up with. Their biggest downside last year was Ferrari engine, and only thing that Williams could be there around them.

And they will not be underdeveloped. They already tested two versions of floor, and two versions of front wing. And cape under the nose. And they will bring new engine cover and front wing for first race. They will bring more changes to the 1st race than Williams. And in season neither of them will bring much of development.

Bill
Bill
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Re: 2021 Pecking order prediction

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in Abu dhabi Mercedes was testing a new cooling system their pu was not detuned these just staff made up by media.merc has in the past benefited from some exotic rule changes they never solved their tire issues in fact the tires were change to accommodate them and when Rbr and ferrari had a descent pu the front wing was change and they had no competition it took 2 years for Rbr to recover ferrari never did.i just hope the new regulation for the first time affect merc so we can finally have a competitive season