2021 Pecking order prediction

[f1316]

Note that Mercedes don’t think they’ll claw back the downforce to get to 2020 lap times: https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/2020 ... =widget-22

This is interesting to me because I suspect it may help to get a little more compression for the field - I.e. those who were already less optimised in 2020 will lose less due to these changes.

I think the carryover of the chassis from 20 to 21 will help RB since they always seem to struggle to understand their new car and so that weak point will be taken away. Ferrari were SO far from optimised this year - running a car designed for a more powerful engine, apparently with some kind of gearbox flex and rear suspension issues - that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were actually able to improve their pace relative to last year (especially if they find ~50 hp as has been suggested).

All that said, Mercedes: a) stopped developing 2020 car first, and so have spent longest adapting to these new regs b) apparently compromised their Abu Dhabi race so they could run parts in the post race test, allowing them to learn more c) have a pretty impressive track record in adapting to these changes.

So I still see the pecking order as follows:

Mercedes
RB - but closer; Max within a couple of tenths and Sergio close enough to try alternate strategy
Ferrari - within half a second of the pace, which will still be a big gain and occasionally on the podium on sheer pace
Aston - with the ‘free’ tokens, a solid chassis and a reinvigorated Seb, the Vettel car may be close to the top 3
McLaren/Alpine - for Mclaren, they’ll gain from the engine but have to use their tokens to install it, cancelling out much of the gain (they still may score more than Aston due to the Stroll car being less consistent); for Alpine the Alonso car will be especially consistent and I suspect they’ll build on their decent platform to consistently score good points but will be laser-focused in 2022
Torro Rosso - Tsunoda and Gasly will be a strong pairing and the Honda taking its final big jump will help them early season
Haas - will benefit from Ferrari’s big engine and rear changes but Mick will score more than Mazepin, who will be a one season wonder
Williams/Alfa - I think they’ll both be close to the Haas - and Russell may often outqualify Mazepin - but ultimately the Haas will be a better race car. Kimi’s pace will continue to decline (and will again be out qualified by Gio) but Giovanazzi will continue to struggle relative to Kimi in races. They’ll both be out for 2022

[godlameroso]

Note that Mercedes don’t think they’ll claw back the downforce to get to 2020 lap times: https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/2020 ... =widget-22

This is interesting to me because I suspect it may help to get a little more compression for the field - I.e. those who were already less optimised in 2020 will lose less due to these changes.

I think the carryover of the chassis from 20 to 21 will help RB since they always seem to struggle to understand their new car and so that weak point will be taken away. Ferrari were SO far from optimised this year - running a car designed for a more powerful engine, apparently with some kind of gearbox flex and rear suspension issues - that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were actually able to improve their pace relative to last year (especially if they find ~50 hp as has been suggested).

All that said, Mercedes: a) stopped developing 2020 car first, and so have spent longest adapting to these new regs b) apparently compromised their Abu Dhabi race so they could run parts in the post race test, allowing them to learn more c) have a pretty impressive track record in adapting to these changes.

So I still see the pecking order as follows:

Mercedes
RB - but closer; Max within a couple of tenths and Sergio close enough to try alternate strategy
Ferrari - within half a second of the pace, which will still be a big gain and occasionally on the podium on sheer pace
Aston - with the ‘free’ tokens, a solid chassis and a reinvigorated Seb, the Vettel car may be close to the top 3
McLaren/Alpine - for Mclaren, they’ll gain from the engine but have to use their tokens to install it, cancelling out much of the gain (they still may score more than Aston due to the Stroll car being less consistent); for Alpine the Alonso car will be especially consistent and I suspect they’ll build on their decent platform to consistently score good points but will be laser-focused in 2022
Torro Rosso - Tsunoda and Gasly will be a strong pairing and the Honda taking its final big jump will help them early season
Haas - will benefit from Ferrari’s big engine and rear changes but Mick will score more than Mazepin, who will be a one season wonder
Williams/Alfa - I think they’ll both be close to the Haas - and Russell may often outqualify Mazepin - but ultimately the Haas will be a better race car. Kimi’s pace will continue to decline (and will again be out qualified by Gio) but Giovanazzi will continue to struggle relative to Kimi in races. They’ll both be out for 2022

Lol Mercedes and their posturing.

[FrukostScones]

2021, not even offially announced in my timezone, is done. horrrndously.
Beg for mercy and 2022.

Merc
...

1.5 sec
RB
0.2sec
Aston Startin
0.1 Renault
0.1 McLaren
0.1 TR
0.2FER
0.1WillIAMS
0.1 ALFA
0.1HAAS

My gut feeling is that new floor rules will make 2021 not very promising.

[erudite450]

Mercedes
Redbull
Ferrari
Alpine
McLaren
Aston Martin
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Haas
Williams

[Gerhardsa]

I don't think its possible to put down a 1-10 pecking order at the start of a season no matter the forms card. Classes would probably be better. I think:

At the Front:
- Merc vs RedBull

Front Midfield
- Ferrari/Alpine/Mclaren/AM

Mid Pack (very close to Front Midfield, mixing it up with them at certain times)
- AT

Rear
-Alfa/Williams/Haas

[Fulcrum]

In reverse order:

10th - Haas - two new drivers, neither of whom are particularly wonderful, plus nothing great to inherit from Ferrari's 2020 car. The engine should be a step forward, but that is about it.
9th - Alfa Romeo - very little development on the car in 2019, Kimi won't improve, and Giovinazzi clearly isn't a world beater.
8th - Williams - there has been a trajectory of improvement over the last 12 months. If it continues, they have a world class driver who can differentiate them from Haas and Alfa.
7th - Alpha Tauri - 7th to 3rd will be very competitive, and I expect AT to be closer with Honda providing the biggest engine improvement. But Tsunoda is a rookie, so won't score regularly.
6th - Aston Martin - No Tracing Point this year, and swapping Perez with Vettel. Vettel won't arrest his terminal decline.
5th - Alpine - Alonso replaces Ricciardo. Ocon, who has been beaten every year by his teammate since 2017, will get beaten again.
4th - McLaren - the change in engine manufacturer will prove disruptive, even though they have one of the strongest driver lineups on the grid.
3rd - Ferrari - Engine improvement, a stronger driver lineup, and a more optimally designed car push them into 3rd place.
2nd - Red Bull - Will be closer to Mercedes than 2020. Perez will be an improvement on Albon. Honda to narrow the engine power / regen gap to Mercedes.
1st - Mercedes - Difficult to see past them as they have had far more resources (time) to develop this car than anyone else. Engine to continue to be the best overall. Hamilton's performance has likely peaked, given his age, but he has Bottas covered in races, even if Bottas begins to outshine him in qualifying.

[NathanOlder]

I don't think its possible to put down a 1-10 pecking order at the start of a season no matter the forms card. Classes would probably be better. I think:

At the Front:
- Merc vs RedBull

Front Midfield
- Ferrari/Alpine/Mclaren/AM

Mid Pack (very close to Front Midfield, mixing it up with them at certain times)
- AT

Rear
-Alfa/Williams/Haas

I thought is was 2021 prediction, not 2020 reality Playing it safe there with that one

[DChemTech]

I don't think its possible to put down a 1-10 pecking order at the start of a season no matter the forms card. Classes would probably be better. I think:

At the Front:
- Merc vs RedBull

Front Midfield
- Ferrari/Alpine/Mclaren/AM

Mid Pack (very close to Front Midfield, mixing it up with them at certain times)
- AT

Rear
-Alfa/Williams/Haas

I thought is was 2021 prediction, not 2020 reality Playing it safe there with that one

Well, in that case Ferrari should be placed in the rear-midfield category

[Gerhardsa]

I don't think its possible to put down a 1-10 pecking order at the start of a season no matter the forms card. Classes would probably be better. I think:

At the Front:
- Merc vs RedBull

Front Midfield
- Ferrari/Alpine/Mclaren/AM

Mid Pack (very close to Front Midfield, mixing it up with them at certain times)
- AT

Rear
-Alfa/Williams/Haas

I thought is was 2021 prediction, not 2020 reality Playing it safe there with that one

Well, in that case Ferrari should be placed in the rear-midfield category

Haha, funny guys
Okay i can change it a bit, but I do think Ferrari would be fighting for 3rd again this year. RB with Ver and Perez i think will easily snatch 2nd and challenge Merc more.
Only other thing might be Haas going right to the back and Williams beating them this year.
Rest I feel should be similar.
I honestly do not know who would come out on top between Ferrari, Mclaren, Alphine or Aston. Too little to go by and many factors changing from last year. (Ferrari "fixing" engine deficit, Mclaren getting the Merc Engine, Aston as new team and the rear suspension changes and Vettel. Will he bring more that what Perez could offer? Alphine/Renault hit/miss seasons (historically) along with Alonso in the car, although I am not sure how much, if anymore he will bring than a Danny Ric in terms of pace)

[DChemTech]

I thought is was 2021 prediction, not 2020 reality Playing it safe there with that one

Well, in that case Ferrari should be placed in the rear-midfield category

Haha, funny guys
Okay i can change it a bit, but I do think Ferrari would be fighting for 3rd again this year. RB with Ver and Perez i think will easily snatch 2nd and challenge Merc more.
Only other thing might be Haas going right to the back and Williams beating them this year.
Rest I feel should be similar.
I honestly do not know who would come out on top between Ferrari, Mclaren, Alphine or Aston. Too little to go by and many factors changing from last year. (Ferrari "fixing" engine deficit, Mclaren getting the Merc Engine, Aston as new team and the rear suspension changes and Vettel. Will he bring more that what Perez could offer? Alphine/Renault hit/miss seasons (historically) along with Alonso in the car, although I am not sure how much, if anymore he will bring than a Danny Ric in terms of pace)

Well, I do agree with you. Don't expect the season to give that much changes really. Maybe AM is in the back-of-the-front midfield with their top driver gone, and a driver-in-decline taking his place. Maybe MB has some trouble due to engine integration, but I don't expect them to drop a lot. Maybe Renault has the issue that their new driver needs a hip replacement or some other age-related problem, but much as I would have preferred to see some fresh blood, Alonso can probably still get along fine. None of these things is going to majorly change the midfield battle, I think.

[Schuttelberg]

I think it's pretty straight forward.

Mercedes will be outright fastest. Red Bull will be outright second fastest.

I think Renault were the third fastest car at the end of 2020 but not by much. I expect Ferrari to be back on the 3rd spot in all likelihood. Aston and McLaren will be in it as well. I think these four teams will have a mega battle for P3.

[Ringleheim]

Wishing for Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/McLaren in the same tier.

Mercedes will be in its own tier yet again, and Ferrari will be lost again, despite the new engine.

Let's hope Red Bull or SOMEONE can bring the right to Mercedes much more frequently than in 2020. Not holding my breath.

We need the new cars in 2022 to have any real shot at changing the pecking order.

[Ringleheim]

Wishing for Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/McLaren in the same tier.

Mercedes will be in its own tier yet again, and Ferrari will be lost again, despite the new engine.

Let's hope Red Bull or SOMEONE can bring the fight to Mercedes much more frequently than in 2020. Not holding my breath.

We need the new cars in 2022 to have any real shot at changing the pecking order.

[aran.vtec]

Wishing for Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/McLaren in the same tier.

Mercedes will be in its own tier yet again, and Ferrari will be lost again, despite the new engine.

Let's hope Red Bull or SOMEONE can bring the right to Mercedes much more frequently than in 2020. Not holding my breath.

We need the new cars in 2022 to have any real shot at changing the pecking order.

It is something everyone is hoping for but chances are slim my guess is 2-10 might change up slightly,
Merc have engineered such an advantage from 2014 that half way into the season they can move all resources to the next season and ontop of that each time the field catches up there is some rule change that merc has more time to develop

[bjpower]

I think Merc will have an easier time next year. I expect the gap to shrink between them and RB. But during the races I think RB will be forced to defend more from the likes of Ferrari, Alpine and McLaren.