[ 2020 ] Aston Martin RedBull Racing F1 Team - Honda

[etusch]

As your initial 2022 car can be developed with unlimited funds, performance differences will be obtained by the design team with roughly the highest combination of engineering skill and funds. That is not Ferrari and probably not Renault. That leaves Merc/AM, RB/AT and McLaren. Personel wise I think we should not underestimate McL because of Seidl and Key. It is a bit of a crystal ball estimation but Merc/AM is probably ahead to RB/AT because engine but also funds (and may be also personnel).

Can you please explain us how you get there that Merc/Am will be good, adding them mclaren but lowering expectations from others. Is it something like what an F1 Racing writer said once that "If Ferrari don't move their factory to england they can not be champion"
Especially I wonder what will make copycat faster then redbull or anyone else ?
If 2022 car will be developed unlimited fund then what is the meaning of budget cap ? Why Ferrari and Renault don't have the budget but Mclaren have ?

[godlameroso]

They can make all the changes they want for the engine next year, what they can't do is develop in season. So all the steps they would have introduced this year will have no track validation, only dyno validation. Fuel also can be changed, all things can be changed for next season so expect a half second step on the engine side alone. Where manufacturers typically gain ~.2 over the season then again .2 over the winter, instead the developments will be consolidated. One can only hope Mercedes doesn't have a similar step over the winter as they've had this year.

The engine is less than 3 tenths down as is, the rest of the gap comes from the chassis. Next year the chassis will need to compensate for the aero parts it is losing after this year. I'm guessing we return to 2019 levels of performance next year, hopefully not similar gaps.

I don't buy that .2 a lap a season. I think it's alot less than that and everything hings on the chassis being to apply that extra power. Think it's closer to .05. but the I'm just pulling numbers out of my a$$.

If one adds more DF every year that also equates into being able to use more of the existing HP. Also more DF helps at lower speeds where it's easier to make uptime. More HP is gonna have demising returns a higher speeds.

You don't have to buy it, Honda improved by .2 from spec 1 to spec 3 last year, and improved yet again over the winter. It's safe to assume whatever Honda brings next year will be whatever they planned to introduce this year, and what they can do over the winter, which would make it a cummulative upgrade. Whether it brings half a second is yet to be seen, but that is what Honda needs to do to overtake Mercedes.

[Big Tea]

If I were Max I'd be doing my utmost to join Merc alongside Hamilton, the only way to get a foothold there is to oust him.

Surely Mercedes will still be favourites when the new regulations come in. If that's not possible then he just as to pray that Red Bull can fight for the titles at some point.

That is not going to happen. As long as Hamilton is at Merc, neither Max, nor Leclerc or anyone who wants to be team leader or disrupt the way things are is going to be brought in.

As the saying goes, if it is not broken, don't fix it.

If I was Max, I'd stay at RBR till end of 2022. Merc don't need him and alot of rumors about where they'll be in 2022. By the middle of 2022 you'll know who's gotten the new regs right. RBR have probably got a better chance than most at getting them right. You just don't know these days. Alot of fresh money in F1 [RP & Williams] now and some of them will probably start moving a majority of their resources to 2022 soon.

I think it depends on how much Max values himself and how 'good' his name is.
No 'proof please' here, just gut feelings right?

Merc is out in front, uncatchable. Only a merc driver is going to win the title as things stand.
Max is not going to Merc.

Second by a space, now that Ferrari has faltered is Red Bull. Max is at Red Bull.

He is not likely to be more than 3rd in the rankings unless it is due to Merc failings.

Ferrari should be barking at Merc and scrapping with Red Bull, which takes points from both of them, especially as neither seem to want a strong second driver.

Back from here, is Renault, Mclaren and RP/AM. None are going to trouble the top 3 (2 due to Ferrari getting pinged, but they will be back)

It seems to me that Max in any of the other 3 would still be 2nd behind the Mercs.

As things stand, if I had to chose who would progress, I would go for Mclaren then Renault, then Rp/AM
(discount Ferrari for now)

Mclaren are getting the Merc engine next year, but have a set driver lineup.
Renault have a reasonable line up, especially Danny, but seem to be slow responding, and not getting the funding they want.

RP have outscored them both this year.

Thats how things stand.

So, what options are there from Max point of view?

Mclaren, No, they are happy with the drivers, so no chance for a while, plus they have to adapt to the Merc.

Renault? No, first I do not see Max fitting in as its a name driven team not a driver driven team, and funds come from above.

That only leaves RP/AM. As things are, they are going to be in that same group behind Merc.

Red Bull? Importantly, their best scoring asset had been Max. What they would be on without him is debatable.
Possibly Albon and Gasly in a car for them would have done a good job and even have more points, but the Kudos is for podiums not finishes. Besides, Red Bull are not short of funding, which is what this post is all about. but we will forget them as it would be no change

A new team called Aston Martin, with a pennant like Max should be a useful tool.

If he could draw enough attention to get the funds and personnel, remember the cap is coming, so people are moving, they already have the Merc engine and have for long enough to be used to it, would as I see it ( or as Max would ) could be no further away from a title than Red Bull.

The down side, Red Bull have been there - done that, while AM are new boys and could fade out.
The worse down side, if Max leaves Red Bull, it is not likely he will ever go back

Lets not consider Ferrari here.

[Sieper]

Both Ferrari as well as RBR have a stronger second driver than Mercedes.

And did you really just type that Albon and Gasly would do better than Max if the car “suits” them?

[Big Tea]

Both Ferrari as well as RBR have a stronger second driver than Mercedes.

And did you really just type that Albon and Gasly would do better than Max if the car “suits” them?

3 & 4 - 27 x 8 = 216. . The car is arguably good enough but has had DNF and not driven as it could have been if the driver was 'happy with it'

No, its not likely. but there for taking. Would you disagree that Max could possibly have finished 3rd in each?
Its the same car.

[TNTHead]

As your initial 2022 car can be developed with unlimited funds, performance differences will be obtained by the design team with roughly the highest combination of engineering skill and funds. That is not Ferrari and probably not Renault. That leaves Merc/AM, RB/AT and McLaren. Personel wise I think we should not underestimate McL because of Seidl and Key. It is a bit of a crystal ball estimation but Merc/AM is probably ahead to RB/AT because engine but also funds (and may be also personnel).

Can you please explain us how you get there that Merc/Am will be good, adding them mclaren but lowering expectations from others. Is it something like what an F1 Racing writer said once that "If Ferrari don't move their factory to england they can not be champion"
Especially I wonder what will make copycat faster then redbull or anyone else ?
If 2022 car will be developed unlimited fund then what is the meaning of budget cap ? Why Ferrari and Renault don't have the budget but Mclaren have ?

Well, let me first emphasize it's all speculation of course. But there are some trends, basically history/track record and the assumption that you need to have lots of funds AND a good design team. Ferrari has shown the last few years that despite their large budget they didn't get to the level needed to be at front, only with a disputable solution they needed to abondon. I don't see them turning the table just within one or two years. Especially with their PU but their chassis was not exceptional as well after the simplied FW rule. When Ferrari PU keeps lacking, all Ferrari teams will be on a back foot.

McLaren I consider as a team capable of coming close to the top, not only because of Seidl/Key but also because of their new wind tunnel coming and the Merc PU.

As far as I know (correct my if I am wrong) there is not yet a spending cap on the actual development on 2022 car. Although it is said that teams should refrain from working on 2022 car this season. If the total design phase of the 2022 car is on equal terms and funds for all teams, it will be a total different story I think. Then surprises can happen. In an ideal (F1) world that is preferable (if you ask me), but since F1 is determined a whole lot by politics I suspect that won't happen.

[etusch]

As far as I know (correct my if I am wrong) there is not yet a spending cap on the actual development on 2022 car. Although it is said that teams should refrain from working on 2022 car this season. If the total design phase of the 2022 car is on equal terms and funds for all teams, it will be a total different story I think. Then surprises can happen. In an ideal (F1) world that is preferable (if you ask me), but since F1 is determined a whole lot by politics I suspect that won't happen.

I also not sure but I think teams can not start developing 2022 car from now. But if it is allowed to develop 2022 car without budget cap or even budget cap but without man power restriction it is still not fair. As I always said I don't trust fia and I don't like their way of working. But if they do this correct it will be a good thing.
As we see clearly, some teams need real track running to develop a good car. Ferrari and Redbull suffers from that. Redbull looks like they will share same butget they have now between two teams. So they will hire engineers for AT too or they send some of redbull engineers to AT when reducing personal count.
Mclaren will gain with merc engine a bit ( may be may be not). They have a good development rate in last two seasons. But it will get harder to find tenths as they close to top teams.
Aston Martin can go with copied mercedes or can built up a good team to do their own car. Latter will take time. with copying option they always will stay mid pack. Toto (which is budy of rich child's dad) think to left his role in mercedes. So I am not sure if AM will have same relations with mercedes. I also think that Fia didn't touch mercedes but claimed not to do it agian.
I also think that Toto's departure is not because of what he said. It is a sign of teams future. He will be second top guy to leave team and I guess this will speed up soon if my theory is correct.

[diffuser]

They can make all the changes they want for the engine next year, what they can't do is develop in season. So all the steps they would have introduced this year will have no track validation, only dyno validation. Fuel also can be changed, all things can be changed for next season so expect a half second step on the engine side alone. Where manufacturers typically gain ~.2 over the season then again .2 over the winter, instead the developments will be consolidated. One can only hope Mercedes doesn't have a similar step over the winter as they've had this year.

The engine is less than 3 tenths down as is, the rest of the gap comes from the chassis. Next year the chassis will need to compensate for the aero parts it is losing after this year. I'm guessing we return to 2019 levels of performance next year, hopefully not similar gaps.

I don't buy that .2 a lap a season. I think it's alot less than that and everything hings on the chassis being to apply that extra power. Think it's closer to .05. but the I'm just pulling numbers out of my a$$.

If one adds more DF every year that also equates into being able to use more of the existing HP. Also more DF helps at lower speeds where it's easier to make uptime. More HP is gonna have demising returns a higher speeds.

You don't have to buy it, Honda improved by .2 from spec 1 to spec 3 last year, and improved yet again over the winter. It's safe to assume whatever Honda brings next year will be whatever they planned to introduce this year, and what they can do over the winter, which would make it a cummulative upgrade. Whether it brings half a second is yet to be seen, but that is what Honda needs to do to overtake Mercedes.

Yep McLaren/Renault didn't change PU and are closer to RBR than ever before. Sounds like that .2 isn't showing up in lap time.

[godlameroso]

It is, especially in the race.

[diffuser]

It is, especially in the race.

Come on now, what's with the -1.....Some people.... I'll even it out.

Oh come on, they almost never drive to the limit in races for a variety of reasons, tires fuel,etc.

[GhostF1]

It is, especially in the race.

Come on now, what's with the -1.....Some people.... I'll even it out.

Oh come on, they almost never drive to the limit in races for a variety of reasons, tires fuel,etc.

No... but they are pushing the engines to the maximum they think they're capable of to survive 6 or so race weekends, and it's pretty clear that the sustained race mode is Honda's strong suit.

And I know that any race ending issue is counted towards reliability and a retirement is a retirement, but it should be pointed out that these weird electrical gremlins on Max's car have not caused the engines to sustain any damage and have been put back into the pool, all 3 occasions. As far as I'm aware, Honda have all their engines alive across all 4 cars which is pretty impressive and these small electrical rubbish problems are creating a more negative air in the press than perhaps is warranted.. I find it interesting Horner addresses the issues as electronic and that he will be conveying to Max what "Red Bull AND Honda have done to ensure it will not happen again".

To me it's looking pretty likely now they've been trying something on only Max's car which is probably hovering in a grey area (as the FIA ruled all four Honda engines must be run in the same mode), and it's now proven to be too risky and causes some sort of electrical hiccup sporadically. Explains why Horner and Tanabe were confident it wouldn't happen on his car again and will convey this to Max.

Will be interesting to hear what Honda say when they're asked about it soon.

[etusch]

Hey ham realy want to have a Challenge come here

Hamilton should join Red Bull alongside Verstappen - Jordan

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/hami ... n=widget-1

[Sieper]

It would be the real battle people want to see. Risky for both. Hamilton hasn’t signed yet at Mercedes and the rumours around Mercedes have been persistent.

[ispano6]

It is, especially in the race.

Come on now, what's with the -1.....Some people.... I'll even it out.

Oh come on, they almost never drive to the limit in races for a variety of reasons, tires fuel,etc.

No... but they are pushing the engines to the maximum they think they're capable of to survive 6 or so race weekends, and it's pretty clear that the sustained race mode is Honda's strong suit.

And I know that any race ending issue is counted towards reliability and a retirement is a retirement, but it should be pointed out that these weird electrical gremlins on Max's car have not caused the engines to sustain any damage and have been put back into the pool, all 3 occasions. As far as I'm aware, Honda have all their engines alive across all 4 cars which is pretty impressive and these small electrical rubbish problems are creating a more negative air in the press than perhaps is warranted.. I find it interesting Horner addresses the issues as electronic and that he will be conveying to Max what "Red Bull AND Honda have done to ensure it will not happen again".

To me it's looking pretty likely now they've been trying something on only Max's car which is probably hovering in a grey area (as the FIA ruled all four Honda engines must be run in the same mode), and it's now proven to be too risky and causes some sort of electrical hiccup sporadically. Explains why Horner and Tanabe were confident it wouldn't happen on his car again and will convey this to Max.

Will be interesting to hear what Honda say when they're asked about it soon.

In the Sept issue of Auto Sport magazine (not to be mistaken with autosport.com) it's mentioned the RA620H is using technology from Kumabou Metals (a company which touts their plating material has anti-static properties). It's through this innovation that they've been able to build a much more robust PU that won't blow like we saw during the McLaren Honda hybrid years. But the phrase anti-static had me thinking...
In Oct issue of F1 Sokuho Asaki states that they were able to turn around the issue in Monza in a very short period of time and that it was a shame that they couldn't show for it in the Mugello race. It's been said by Tanabe that from the outside the issues look similar but Asaki's comments seem to support that the issues aren't the same. It was mentioned in Mugello that RedBull are developing the floor (and I think the tub as well) and I wonder if something to do with the electronic system is affected by it. One thing that I ponder is with the RedBull cars and how they are always scraping the ground and the sparks that are produced from the leading edge of the plank. Can this generate static electricity in an undesirable(yet intentional) way? It's been mentioned here almost a decade ago about the effects of static electricity in F1 cars and the use of electrostatic/ionic means to influence downforce with low-drag. It's not out of the realm of possibilities, but one poster mentioned here a theory that RedBull had experimented with this back in 2011 and hypothesized KERS failures attributed to it. In more recent studies it's been shown that static electricity is generated from materials as it travels through air. Is the front nose doing something to create static electricity and does the car concept leverage "ionic wind" that are difficult to manage?
In the Sept Auto Sport, there was a paragraph that mentioned that before the RedBull collaboration that Honda was told to just make the best PU they can and that RB would adapt it as best they can but as the relationship developed into a partnership where they could speak their minds freely to each other that the RB16 would require much more concerted integration. Something peculiar is going on in the RB16 that is for sure. Electrostatic discharge?

[Sieper]

Not from an outlap to the grid imthink. and the problem has been the full power not coming in the second stage of the standing starts.