Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

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zac510
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 11:58 am

Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by zac510 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:32 am

I notice on this forum that people make all sorts of crazy predictions about how a team's season will progress just from the shape of the wheelnut of a car. These kind of posts bring down the quality of the thread and annoy moderators as they're not based on any of the engineering principles that this forum values.

(edit forgot to add: When people make predictions the up-voting system for posts isn't useful as we can't tell whether the prediction, no matter how ridiculous, can will be true or not.)

As a deterrent to making these kind of posts, I was wondering whether we could hold people to these predictions using a small table or spreadsheet. For example, if someone says that STR are going to beat real RBR this season because of their new quadruple-threaded wheelnuts, we could mark in a spreadsheet a link to the prediction, username and it's due date which in this example would be the end of the season.
It can be short-term predictions too, for example when people were saying <10 cars would finish Melbourne 2014 there would have been some red faces afterwards.
We can then review these predictions and remind the poster that they're sprouting crap with no more accuracy than the local newspaper's astrology column.

However my intention for this is not so much to tell people they're wrong, or to find out who is better at predictions as that's a bit rude. It's intention would be to act as a deterrent.
As people are unlikely to put these predictions into the spreadsheet themselves (because finding out you're wrong is quite embarassing), other forum users could do it for them. Knowing that they might be reminded of their wild predictions might deter them from making that kind of post in the first place. Or at least they can re-adjust their post to be an observation of the wheelnuts and remove the prediction part.

We would need to carefully craft some rules around what predictions can be made so we don't end up with posters saying "my prediction percentage is better than yours" or somesuch as that's rude. Ideally the best prediction ratio would be 0 out of 0 and a reduction of those rubbish posts!

Steven
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by Steven » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:46 am

I suggest to downvote as speculation.

But if anyone is up to making and maintaining a spreadsheet as suggested, I'll be happy to put it on google drive so it can be viewed by everyone.

zac510
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 11:58 am

Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by zac510 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:38 pm

Well personally I can't downvote :D
but it'd be even better to discourage people from posting speculation in the first place.

Let's see if some other forum users are interested in this idea.
No good turn goes unpunished.

nzjrs
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by nzjrs » Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:08 pm

I also can't downvote speculation, so I'm also left with no option but to ignore

ChrisDanger
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by ChrisDanger » Wed Feb 24, 2016 2:10 pm

I've been thinking about this too, as I don't see much value in speculation, or even opinions actually, and prefer posts that are factual. I almost wish there was a filter that could be applied to show only the informative (factual) posts.

Disclaimer: I fully realise the irony of this post.

RS200E
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by RS200E » Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:14 pm

This is a great idea. Was just on the Honda engine thread and someone is spouting crap about BMW replacing Honda in the McLaren.

Steven
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by Steven » Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:19 pm

Again, downvoting as speculation is the way to go.

Just make sure you contribute some interesting stuff, so your rating goes up, following which you'll be able to downrate by yourself.

J.A.W.
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by J.A.W. » Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:44 am

Steven, perhaps you can explain why upvotes are valued differently from downvotes?

In as much as you can credit an upvote, in direct numerical relation to how many you have received,
- from the very first - yet if you have a standing total ( & regardless of how many you have actually received),
of fewer than ~25, (is it?) you have zero downvote capability..

& why cant you apply downvotes in numerical equivalence - to those you have received - too?

Logically, this debases the value of the system... & at the very least, allows a potential injustice situation..

As to the O.P. 's concerns, I'd suggest that if you consider the 'offending' post meets the criteria of being
off topic/trollish, you ought to report it.. some posts do seem to vanish, & most likely, from this effect..
Dr Zachary Smith sez..
"Yes.. spare us your ridiculous remarks, you insensitive idiot!"

Steven
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by Steven » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:19 pm

Well, I'm not sure if you'd be willing to rate down as much as you want to rate up?

The reason why negative ratings are only allowed when you have a certain rating yourself is because we expect people to show first they are willing to contribute something interesting, before we can trust their judgement on what isn't.

And indeed, EVERYTHING that goes against the forum rules should be reported!

zac510
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 11:58 am

Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by zac510 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:59 pm

I still can't downvote but I'm just getting better at ignoring the crazy predictions.
I don't see the posts as outside of the forum rules per se, just not of any real valuable contribution.

Phil
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by Phil » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:41 pm

zac510 wrote:I notice on this forum that people make all sorts of crazy predictions about how a team's season will progress just from the shape of the wheelnut of a car. These kind of posts bring down the quality of the thread and annoy moderators as they're not based on any of the engineering principles that this forum values.
I really don't get the need for this. This is a forum, a discussion board. It's natural that we will find a wide variate of different opinions. Some of them better informed, some of them more objective, some just rants and frustration. Even in the most frustrated posts though, I sometimes see valid points raised that give food for thought.

The fun thing about this place is taking the sum of all posts and finding the truth or best prediction somewhere in between. Only by factoring in all opinions and posts do we get a better understanding of things.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter

turbof1
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by turbof1 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:44 pm

RS200E wrote:This is a great idea. Was just on the Honda engine thread and someone is spouting crap about BMW replacing Honda in the McLaren.
If this happens and a moderator has not acted yet, hit the report button. The Honda PU thread is a technical thread which does not allow speculation. In such a case you are also allowed to downvote if possible.

As Steven already said, you must first earn the right to downvote. See it as a test for having the competence to use downvoting.
#AeroFrodo

Steven
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by Steven » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:46 pm

turbof1 wrote:
RS200E wrote:This is a great idea. Was just on the Honda engine thread and someone is spouting crap about BMW replacing Honda in the McLaren.
If this happens and a moderator has not acted yet, hit the report button. The Honda PU thread is a technical thread which does not allow speculation. In such a case you are also allowed to downvote if possible.

As Steven already said, you must first earn the right to downvote. See it as a test for having the competence to use downvoting.
Indeed, and this crap was already reported and split into its own thread a few days ago.

zac510
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by zac510 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:50 pm

Phil, overall you are correct but there are the odd people who muddy the thread with unfounded speculation. Anyway I'm no longer entertaining the original idea in this thread and I was surprised to see it bumped up again.

I have to add that this is the only forum I visit for F1 and up until a few years ago I used to lurk around several. It really is an excellent forum, thanks Steven and the admin team.

Phil
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Re: Holding forum posters to their wild predictions

Post by Phil » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:52 pm

oops, apologies. I missed that this is actually a very old topic. :oops:
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
#Team44 supporter