2023 pecking order predictions

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deadhead
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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haza wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:44 am
Bit soon but hey ho ….

First half of the season

1:Redbull
2:Mercedes
3:Ferrari
That would be it..

selvam_e2002
selvam_e2002
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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AM would be surprise for next season 2023

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west52keep64
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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1. Red Bull








2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Everyone else

The cost cap "punishment" won't really have an impact on the '23 car for RB so they'll walk next year's championship, but '24 might be a bit closer. Mercedes probably were the most improved team of '22 so I'd put them as clear number 2 for next year. Ferrari will probably have a decent car, but I can't see the operational issues disappearing overnight.

TimW
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Early season:
Ferrari
Mercedes
Red bull
Aston Martin
McLaren
Alpine
Alfa Romeo
Williams
Haas
Alpha Tauri


End of season:
Mercedes
Red bull
Ferrari
Alpine
McLaren
Aston Martin
Williams
Haas
Alfa Romeo
Alpha Tauri

Ferrari their usual strong start and then collapse halfway the season. Max WDC because the Merc drivers take to many points from each other. Williams continue their slow upwards trajectory (that is probably just my rose tinted glasses as an Albon fan). Alfa Romeo a similar trend as this year but starting the season further down the grid. McLaren continues to be a one man team with Piastri only slowly getting up to speed. Strong start of the season for Alonso, but the AM team will be a vulcano slowly building towards an eruption.

GrizzleBoy
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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It would seem of the top 3 that Merc have the most progress to make in terms of non-diminishing returns so they should theoretically make the biggest jump IF they don't end up stuck in the famously dreaded "we're not really sure why we're so slow" development loop.

AR3-GP
AR3-GP
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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GrizzleBoy wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:12 pm
It would seem of the top 3 that Merc have the most progress to make in terms of non-diminishing returns so they should theoretically make the biggest jump IF they don't end up stuck in the famously dreaded "we're not really sure why we're so slow" development loop.
In such an immature stage of the regulations cycle, it's not obvious that we are anywhere near diminishing returns for any team. The only reason RB was good, is because no one built anything better :wink: .

Apparently the floor changes will cause 0.5 sec face value loss, so that's something to keep in mind when trying to figure out how much people improved. If teams are running as fast as last year, or even quicker, it suggest absolutely massive gains.

haza
haza
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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If only Mercedes redbull Ferrari and McLaren can have a good old 2012 style scrap for the title even better if a midfield team can find a silver bullet an challenge, since 2009 only 2 teams have won a constructors title, only wishful thinking though

stan_french
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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wait guys, last year we were able to make a poll in regards to who will win, for this thread. Does anyone know how to do that?

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carisi2k
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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1. Red Bull - The RB18 can easily evolve in to the RB19 and it has 15kg of weight improvement before anything aerodynamic is done. The 15mm raise in the floor to the reference plain is a non issue since that is where Red Bull have been running there car in 2022. We know that they might also have a power unit advantage as well.
2. Ferrari - This only applies if the new management doesn't have the same issues as during the Binotto era. Binotto was in charge of too much which was why Ferrari threw away the championship in 22. He was doing Horner, Marko and Newey's job at Ferrari which is just unsustainable and too much pressure on one man. The car should still be good and there car will need more work on it then the Red Bull it is still a much higher base then Mercedes have.
3. Mercedes - This car needs a complete overhaul. Still had porpoising issues at Abu Dhabi and was still slow as a wet week in a straight line because of there 22 package. If they continue along the size small sidepod then they will continue to fail. The team showed a complete lack of understanding of the 22 rules and there only win came about only when Red Bull and Max mysteriously had an off weekend at Sao Paolo. COTA showed that the Red Bull had reserves of speed on Mercedes with a car that was relatively undeveloped and overweight. Mercedes have so much they need to put in to the 23 car vs the blue and red team that I can't see them reducing this gap significantly. While they may have more WT time it won't be enough to overcome there issues in 23 and it will probably be 24 or 25 before they will be able to take advantage of Red Bulls budget cap penalties.
4-6. This one is difficult because the 3 teams that are likely to be battling for this position are inconsistent year to year. I will just put Alpine, Mclaren and Aston Martin to fill these positions.
7. Haas - I expect this team to evolve there 22 car as it had some good speed at times and with more Ferrari support with Audi buying Sauber they could jump up more consistently in to the 4-6 positions as well.
8. Alpha Tauri - I expect them to improve somewhat with more understanding of the regulations. I expect them to have more RB18 hints to their body work just like a lot of the other teams will and a small step forward.
9. Sauber - With Audi now owning this team I expect this year to be about getting to grips with F1 for Audi. Expect new management and audi technology to start moving in to this team which will bode well for 2026 but no so much for 2023.
10 Williams - It pains me as a Williams fan to say this but I think they will have some improvements. They will evolve there rb18 like sidepods and probably look to put some more RB18 features in to their design. Maybe they could jump Sauber if they can get on top of some issues with money and management that seems to be causing issues at the moment.

GrizzleBoy
GrizzleBoy
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Many teams made drastic changes to their cars bodywork in the direction of Red Bull without any drastic changes in performance.

I wonder how many of those will have turned out to only be effective in 2023 due to the last missing piece requiring too much budget.

TimW
TimW
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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carisi2k wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:48 pm
1. Red Bull - The RB18 can easily evolve in to the RB19 and it has 15kg of weight improvement before anything aerodynamic is done. The 15mm raise in the floor to the reference plain is a non issue since that is where Red Bull have been running there car in 2022. We know that they might also have a power unit advantage as well.
This is not the case. If RB would keep running their floor edges at the same height, that would mean that the plank would be 15mm closer to the track and they would be constantly bottoming. It will force them to compromise and run their floor edge higher, just as the others.
Of course it could be that their floor aero is less sensitive to a change of the edge height than other cars, but we do not know.

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Sieper
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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to me it is just a big question mark. Is Ferrari really going to improve their PU by that much? And it seems they will reduce their sidepod drag too. Where did the Mercedes' Brazil performance come from, can they find a way to bring that over to other tracks as well? Is RBR still the fastest. The others I don't expect to be in play, but perhaps with budget cap and converging cars it might...

I really cant make a guess at it. Other then 3 groups and I expect williams to be last: RBR/FER/MERC .... AMR/McL/ALP.... STR/AR/HA..WIL
Controversy does not have a short memory.

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carisi2k
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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TimW wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:59 am
carisi2k wrote:
Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:48 pm
1. Red Bull - The RB18 can easily evolve in to the RB19 and it has 15kg of weight improvement before anything aerodynamic is done. The 15mm raise in the floor to the reference plain is a non issue since that is where Red Bull have been running there car in 2022. We know that they might also have a power unit advantage as well.
This is not the case. If RB would keep running their floor edges at the same height, that would mean that the plank would be 15mm closer to the track and they would be constantly bottoming. It will force them to compromise and run their floor edge higher, just as the others.
Of course it could be that their floor aero is less sensitive to a change of the edge height than other cars, but we do not know.
I never said they would keep running there floor at the same height. I said it isn't as big a deal for Red Bull as they seem to be able to aero seal there floor even at the increased ride heights they run at.

Of course red bull were upset at the 25mm height rule change because they built a 22 car that had sidepods, no flexing floor or plank, no porpoising and was the equal to or fastest car all year especially in a straight line.

Weight reduction will be the main thing they will look in to making the RB19 the fastest rocket in 2023. The new airbox crash test regs might make this difficult to achieve and if this new lightweight chassis can pass the crash tests then lok out everybody else. I suspect some tidying up of certain things on the RB19 to make it a little trimmer then the RB18 and this is why they should still be number 1 in 2023.

Ferrari and Mercedes will be the fight for second place in 2023. Ferrari have new management but shouldn't have too much to change with there new car other then sorting out reliability and tyre life. Obviously look to more fine tuning of the package and I expect it to be near the new 795kg limit for 2023. This is something I don't expect Red Bull or Mercedes to be at the start of the year.

Mercedes have a whole bunch of issues for 23 to sort out.
1. The Floor. They are going to have to put some extra weight in to the floor to get it to meet the new rigidity regulations.How are they going to seal the floor without the flexing floor they had in 22 and the small pod?
2. Sidepod. Will they stick with the small pod and mid wing and how will they control the air and reduce the drag this design has. I suspect that they may make the mid wing in to a mid fairing that connects to the small pod to allow better control of the air but we shall see.
3. Suspension. Will they stick with what they had or go down the red bull route. They also have the suspension travel issues which made the car extremely difficult on bumpy tracks which means for sure they will be bringing a new rear end but will it be push or pull rod?
4. Front wing. The innovative winglet design which allowed some outwash from the front wing has now been banned. While they do have a normal design it still removes a feature which assisted them in there performance uptick at the end of the 22 season.
5. Weight. Will they be able to get under the weight limit. While they weren't as heavy as Red Bull they are going to have to have a heavier floor to meet the new floor regs. In addition to the new airbox regs this could mean the W14 is still overweight in 23.


All teams also have to deal with the new airbox tests which are a result of the first corner silverstone crash as well.

This is why I put down my pecking order as Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes.

Shal_Leg16
Shal_Leg16
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Ferrari after correction will be a force again. they have a fast car and fast driver. ruling them out will be a stupidity.

Cs98
Cs98
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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west52keep64 wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:57 pm
1. Red Bull








2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Everyone else

The cost cap "punishment" won't really have an impact on the '23 car for RB so they'll walk next year's championship, but '24 might be a bit closer. Mercedes probably were the most improved team of '22 so I'd put them as clear number 2 for next year. Ferrari will probably have a decent car, but I can't see the operational issues disappearing overnight.
It certainly will impact their in season development.