2023 pecking order predictions

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Venturiation
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Vanja #66 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:32 pm
Airshifter wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:50 am
TBH, I think anyone stating it will help Merc the most is at best guessing. Unless we assume Merc knows full well what their problems were and how to fix it, we can't know that the car will come alive with the new reg. Since they got it wrong from the start, for all we know teams such as RB and Ferrari who had it closer to right from the start might adapt better and gain even more advantage with the car raised up.

It's the Merc hopeful pinning a thought on Merc getting an advantage through the regs. It was probably pushed (and well acted at times!) by Merc in hopes of changing things during the season under the guise of driver safety, but in the end all it will probably do is create more work for everyone and most likely slow the cars a little bit.
Merc benefiting from floor and bouncing rule changes is all based on facts. Timeline of their problems was:

1) cars was designed for aero and suspension to run as low as possible at all times to extract maximum downforce possible (importance of suspension design is often since it can't improve performance much, but slightly wrong design can wreck the car)

2) bouncing wasnt expected and to reduce it quickly the car was raised - compromising suspension movement, dynamics, tyre management, etc

3) barca floor upgrade significantly reduced floor downforce to reduce bouncing sensitivity and this hurt Merc performance through most of the season

4) zeropods left a lot of floor exposed and uncontrolable floor movement still affected performance and generated bouncing, so the car was mostly running outside of optimal ride height

5) due to lower air density in Mexico and slighlty lower in Brazil, car was able to run lower and this brought it back to life mechanically - but was brought back to reality in AD

2023 floor changes reduce maximum theoretical floor downforce and also leave less theoretical potential for bouncing - ar the cost of floor performance. Since RB and Ferrari mastered floor design, its clear they will lose the most. Contrary, Merc had to sacrifice floor downforce even with Barca floor, so they will likely not lose floor performance at all, and - bouncing on its own is less likely to happen and/or cause major problems. In fact, their zeropod concept will also benefit since reduced floor performance also means less load on overexposed floor surface, making it less prone to uncontrollable movement - along with overall stiffer floor requirements.

Having potential to extract floor downforce without bouncing, Ferrari and RB were able to exploit flexible floor edges for mechanical sealing and extra floor performance. This was actually a problem for Merc, so stiffer floor is also working in their favour twofold.

Literally every change is working in their favour and hurts RB and Ferrari, so its absolutely no surprise both drivers and Toto were campainging for "safety" changes from Bahrain Q...
That’s totally wrong it doesn’t benefit Mercedes at all, same story was tol about the 2021 floor and see how that ended

And Ferrari was bouncing like crazy, check silverstone footage it looks like the car is about to lose contact from the track

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chrisc90
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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But what car at what ride height, when checked, is making the most downforce? Is both Ferrari and RB sitting right bang on the ride height and floor height limits or are they slightly above?
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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chrisc90 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:44 pm
But what car at what ride height, when checked, is making the most downforce? Is both Ferrari and RB sitting right bang on the ride height and floor height limits or are they slightly above?
Redbull is the highest and won’t be affected, Redbull will benefit more because they are used to the higher ride and already know how to extract downforce from it
Unlike Ferrari that dropped like a fly after the flexing plank drama

Mercedes will lose alot because they use the lowest ride

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Vanja #66
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:43 pm
That’s totally wrong it doesn’t benefit Mercedes at all, same story was tol about the 2021 floor and see how that ended

And Ferrari was bouncing like crazy, check silverstone footage it looks like the car is about to lose contact from the track
Feel free to elaborate and forget 2021, floors work completely different now
And they call it a stall. A STALL!

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Vanja #66 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:47 pm
Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:43 pm
That’s totally wrong it doesn’t benefit Mercedes at all, same story was tol about the 2021 floor and see how that ended

And Ferrari was bouncing like crazy, check silverstone footage it looks like the car is about to lose contact from the track
Feel free to elaborate and forget 2021, floors work completely different now
I’m not saying it’s the same floor

For 2021 everyone tought from theory that Mercedes would benefit from that floor change, but when the season started we saw that they lost the most

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Airshifter
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Vanja #66 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:32 pm
Airshifter wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:50 am
TBH, I think anyone stating it will help Merc the most is at best guessing. Unless we assume Merc knows full well what their problems were and how to fix it, we can't know that the car will come alive with the new reg. Since they got it wrong from the start, for all we know teams such as RB and Ferrari who had it closer to right from the start might adapt better and gain even more advantage with the car raised up.

It's the Merc hopeful pinning a thought on Merc getting an advantage through the regs. It was probably pushed (and well acted at times!) by Merc in hopes of changing things during the season under the guise of driver safety, but in the end all it will probably do is create more work for everyone and most likely slow the cars a little bit.
Merc benefiting from floor and bouncing rule changes is all based on facts. Timeline of their problems was:

1) cars was designed for aero and suspension to run as low as possible at all times to extract maximum downforce possible (importance of suspension design is often since it can't improve performance much, but slightly wrong design can wreck the car)

2) bouncing wasnt expected and to reduce it quickly the car was raised - compromising suspension movement, dynamics, tyre management, etc

3) barca floor upgrade significantly reduced floor downforce to reduce bouncing sensitivity and this hurt Merc performance through most of the season

4) zeropods left a lot of floor exposed and uncontrolable floor movement still affected performance and generated bouncing, so the car was mostly running outside of optimal ride height

5) due to lower air density in Mexico and slighlty lower in Brazil, car was able to run lower and this brought it back to life mechanically - but was brought back to reality in AD

2023 floor changes reduce maximum theoretical floor downforce and also leave less theoretical potential for bouncing - ar the cost of floor performance. Since RB and Ferrari mastered floor design, its clear they will lose the most. Contrary, Merc had to sacrifice floor downforce even with Barca floor, so they will likely not lose floor performance at all, and - bouncing on its own is less likely to happen and/or cause major problems. In fact, their zeropod concept will also benefit since reduced floor performance also means less load on overexposed floor surface, making it less prone to uncontrollable movement - along with overall stiffer floor requirements.

Having potential to extract floor downforce without bouncing, Ferrari and RB were able to exploit flexible floor edges for mechanical sealing and extra floor performance. This was actually a problem for Merc, so stiffer floor is also working in their favour twofold.

Literally every change is working in their favour and hurts RB and Ferrari, so its absolutely no surprise both drivers and Toto were campainging for "safety" changes from Bahrain Q...
I really don't disagree with most of your points, but in a short version Merc got it so wrong that any regs changed might bring them closer due to others having to make changes to more stabile platforms.

It's only if we assume that Merc get it right and everyone else gets it wrong with the reg changes that Merc catches up a lot. It throws everyone a curve but until we see changes to the other cars we really shouldn't IMHO assume that the advantage swings to Merc.

There are still unknowns involved, so as far as I'm concerned it's all opinion, including my opinion that it's all opinion. Not to say Merc aren't expected to improve more than the others, but when you are that off from the start improvement is almost hard to avoid.

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:51 pm
Vanja #66 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:47 pm
Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:43 pm
That’s totally wrong it doesn’t benefit Mercedes at all, same story was tol about the 2021 floor and see how that ended

And Ferrari was bouncing like crazy, check silverstone footage it looks like the car is about to lose contact from the track
Feel free to elaborate and forget 2021, floors work completely different now
I’m not saying it’s the same floor

For 2021 everyone tought from theory that Mercedes would benefit from that floor change, but when the season started we saw that they lost the most
What??

Nobody thought that at all! It was pretty widely thought that the late 2021 floor change rule damaged Mercedes. No one thought they’d benefit.

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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f1jcw wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:54 pm
[
Last edited by Venturiation on Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Elliot already explained the problem is the car was designed to run low as you said
And the zeropods and the exposed didn’t affect much
, now with 2023 changed it will become worse for them if

Let’s just put the normal car, raise the rear by a little ( they had to raise only the rear) and you destroy everything
The back of the car become like a parachute and with lost downforce they had to bring bigger wings, so an even worse parachute
Of course it’s going to be a drag monster

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:57 pm
f1jcw wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:54 pm
Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:51 pm


I’m not saying it’s the same floor

For 2021 everyone tought from theory that Mercedes would benefit from that floor change, but when the season started we saw that they lost the most
What??

Nobody thought that at all! It was pretty widely thought that the late 2021 floor change rule damaged Mercedes. No one thought they’d benefit.
Mercedes said they voted for rule change because they didn’t see any effect on their car
All I can think is we are talking about different things, the removal of floor hurt them badly, it took them a while to recover.

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Big Tea
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Venturiation wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:47 pm
chrisc90 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:44 pm
But what car at what ride height, when checked, is making the most downforce? Is both Ferrari and RB sitting right bang on the ride height and floor height limits or are they slightly above?
Redbull is the highest and won’t be affected, Redbull will benefit more because they are used to the higher ride and already know how to extract downforce from it
Unlike Ferrari that dropped like a fly after the flexing plank drama

Mercedes will lose alot because they use the lowest ride
The Red Bull has rake for effect, which means what ever the front/rear difference is in 22 will need to be the same in 23 (all else being equal) so at what point does the rear end become too high to benefit?

The front will have to meet the minimum, so they may have to go a completely new path to get the most benefit from the rake without the rear being outside the best distance. at some point the 'gap' at the rear is going to be too much?
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Chuckjr wrote:
Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:10 pm
Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.
I agree with this. It might hurt Mercedes.

Mercedes of the past tend to run lower. The problem is there is more porpoising. It has been resolved somewhat to the point where only bouncing by track undulations remain... But i forsee a weaker Mercedes when the floor edge is lifted up.
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Vanja #66
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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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How can people not understand that raising the tunnel and edge heights from the reference plane allows almost all teams to run the car lower? Thats a jackpot for Mercedes' suspension preferences and troubled concept of W13.

RB was scraping and on the plank more than any car at speed, so their throat and edges will have raised from the ground in practice. Less so for Ferrari and Mercedes got exactly what they needed.
And they call it a stall. A STALL!

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Vanja #66 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:38 am
How can people not understand that raising the tunnel and edge heights from the reference plane allows almost all teams to run the car lower? Thats a jackpot for Mercedes' suspension preferences and troubled concept of W13.

RB was scraping and on the plank more than any car at speed, so their throat and edges will have raised from the ground in practice. Less so for Ferrari and Mercedes got exactly what they needed.
Sure they can "run the car lower" because it's not generating as much downforce as before but this benefits no one and I don't quite understand yet why it would be exactly what Mercedes needed (even though I get that they wouldn't have fought for the changes unless it was what they needed).

So I'm very confused :shock:

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Re: 2023 pecking order predictions

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Vanja #66 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:38 am
How can people not understand that raising the tunnel and edge heights from the reference plane allows almost all teams to run the car lower? Thats a jackpot for Mercedes' suspension preferences and troubled concept of W13.

RB was scraping and on the plank more than any car at speed, so their throat and edges will have raised from the ground in practice. Less so for Ferrari and Mercedes got exactly what they needed.
Mercedes was competitive when the floor edges were dragging on the tarmac. Red Bull edges did not look anywhere near the tarmac as the Mercedes. So this year with the edges having forced to be higher, it would be a loss of performance for Mercedes, Red Bull not so much as they were already higher.

Some may say Mercedes depended more on the physical seal of the floor edge for the tunnel to work best, while Red Bull depended more on the edge vortices for the seal so could run higher a higher tunnel volume, but it is all speculation.